Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?

[Kotowboy]

As I said - I worked out it needs to stay in cinemas for the next 5 months and earn $200m each month to beat Avatar and I don't see that happening at all.

It earned less than $100m this weekend even with China's money.

[cramx3]

I don't think a single person here cares more about the numbers than the movie. That's just silly to imply.

Yup, but as I mentioned, it would be nice if the top money making movies were "the best" which is obviously just an opinion, but I think it would set a good stnadard for the industry.  Make a good movie and you will be rewarded.

Avatar may not have been the best movie, but it sure was one hell of an experience to see and deserves to be up there.

TFA is a really well done movie, its based off previoius well done movies.  It deserves to be up there

Jurassic World... um not bad, but really don't see why this is there.  I want it gone.

And also the discussion on world #'s is cool, learn a bit about the movie business in other places than my home.  The whole China discussion is interesting.

[Implode]

I wonder how much general movie fatigue factors into how much movies make, if any at all, or if it even exists.

I'm referring to how big Hollywood movies seem to be coming out more and more now, possibly causing the general population to be a bit tired of watching them.

[Kotowboy]

Avatar - great visual spectacle. Predictable story. But didn't bother me.

Star Wars 7 - great visual spectacle - rehashed structure and plot. But didn't bother me.

[Kotowboy]

I wonder how much general movie fatigue factors into how much movies make, if any at all, or if it even exists.

I'm referring to how big Hollywood movies seem to be coming out more and more now, possibly causing the general population to be a bit tired of watching them.

I'm shocked MARVEL movies *still* bring in the big bucks.  Aren't people just sick to death of superheroes yet ?

[Chino]

I think TFA is going to just barely squeak by Titanic for the number 2 spot, but I think it's pretty safe to say it won't be coming anywhere near Avatar.

[Zantera]

TFA definitely has a good shot at dethroning Avatar, but it's still a huge task. It's a bit of a shame that such a mediocre movie sits at the throne, but what Avatar had that Star Wars doesn't have is the whole spectacle angle and in pretentious words "it's more like an experience than just a film", which in contrast TFA doesn't have. Then again, Star Wars comes with pre-existing fandom and has other perks.

TFA is gonna continue to drop, but there's still not a lot of big movies coming anytime soon. Kung Fu Panda 3 is the first movie that will dethrone Star Wars as nr1 for a weekend, and that one is still 2 ½ weeks away. Even with that one out, there's not gonna be a lot of big non-animated films out, with a few like Deadpool in February and then Batman v Superman in March coming up. I still think there's plenty of people who have waited with TFA until the initial craze wears off, and there's also people like myself who will most likely go a 4th or 5th time.

2.7 billion is a tall order but it's not over until it's over.

[Kotowboy]

$200m a month for the next 5 months isn't just a big ask - it's pretty impossible i'd say.

[Zantera]

I mean it exploded with a 53 million dollar opening in China (think it was even a record?) and made another 41 million from the domestic numbers, so almost 100 in TWO countries in one weekend, not counting the rest of the world. I think the number will definitely go below 200 million dollars per month at some point, but not until February or March. We're only roughly a week into January and it has already made what, more than half of what it needs to make for the whole month?

Worth mentioning it opened in China on Saturday so no Friday in the calculation.

[cramx3]

I think those numbers show that China won't push TFA over Avatar though.  Even if they do end up being records for China.  TFA needs a new edit version to hit the theaters or something.

[Zantera]

I think Avatar only made around 200 million dollars in China so TFA could definitely beat that. 53 million in 2 days with the premiere on Saturday is really good numbers. Sure, it will decline, but still a really good start and probably better than they had hoped for.

[Kotowboy]

Everyone was expecting China to bring in $500m

" Star Wars will never beat Avatar "

" Just Wait til it opens in China "

It's not going to make $1.5bn in China is it... "

[Zantera]

I think it all comes down to legs which is something you can't predict. Again, Avatar didn't make more than 200 million in China, but it made good bank pretty much everywhere hence why it ended so high. It's almost baffling to me how so many people completely disregard every country that isn't America or China like if those two are the only ones that bring in money. Avatar made 2 billion of its money from other countries than America. 200 million of those, so about 1/10th of those 2 billion was from China. The rest was spread over all the other countries.

[Chino]

I think it all comes down to legs which is something you can't predict. Again, Avatar didn't make more than 200 million in China, but it made good bank pretty much everywhere hence why it ended so high. It's almost baffling to me how so many people completely disregard every country that isn't America or China like if those two are the only ones that bring in money. Avatar made 2 billion of its money from other countries than America. 200 million of those, so about 1/10th of those 2 billion was from China. The rest was spread over all the other countries.

I said this a few pages back;

"How much has TFA made outside of the US so far? $800M or so? Looking at recent movies in China, that demographic looks to make up about 10% of non-US revenue. That would indicate that TFA in China will likely make somewhere between $85M and $120M. That's my guess. "

[TioJorge]

Noice! Chinotistics. Your number one go-to movie revenue prediction service.

[Dream Team]

None of these movies have sold nearly the number of tickets that older movies like Gone With the Wind have sold. Inflation-adjusted, that one is over 2 Billion domestically.

[King Postwhore]

None of these movies have sold nearly the number of tickets that older movies like Gone With the Wind have sold. Inflation-adjusted, that one is over 2 Billion domestically.

But there wasn't so many mediums like there is today.  For most, the movies was their TV.

[Chino]

None of these movies have sold nearly the number of tickets that older movies like Gone With the Wind have sold. Inflation-adjusted, that one is over 2 Billion domestically.

Gone with the Wind was released like nine times, each time being at least six months. It was released in a period when most people didn't even have a radio. Can't really compare anything released today to that movie. Completely different time.

[Zantera]

None of these movies have sold nearly the number of tickets that older movies like Gone With the Wind have sold. Inflation-adjusted, that one is over 2 Billion domestically.

Gone with the Wind was released like nine times, each time being at least six months. It was released in a period when most people didn't even have a radio. Can't really compare anything released today to that movie. Completely different time.

Indeed! Remember, back in the day there was a much bigger spread on the movies and much less competition. Nowadays you have several films opening each weekend, and not just that, you know a leak or home video release is coming in just a few months, but back in the day you pretty much had to see it at the cinema because home video wasn't a thing.

[Lucien]

Aren't people just sick to death of superheroes yet ?

no

[BlobVanDam]

I sure as hell am. Last one I watched was TDK, which put me off for the rest of my life.

[Chino]

None of these movies have sold nearly the number of tickets that older movies like Gone With the Wind have sold. Inflation-adjusted, that one is over 2 Billion domestically.

Gone with the Wind was released like nine times, each time being at least six months. It was released in a period when most people didn't even have a radio. Can't really compare anything released today to that movie. Completely different time.

Indeed! Remember, back in the day there was a much bigger spread on the movies and much less competition. Nowadays you have several films opening each weekend, and not just that, you know a leak or home video release is coming in just a few months, but back in the day you pretty much had to see it at the cinema because home video wasn't a thing.

Movies today have to compete against all forms of entertainment. One of the main reasons I've only seen 4 movies (two of those were The Interview) in the last two years is because I find it hard to see the value in it. By the time you factor in gas, it costs my girlfriend at least $25 to go see a movie (I'm aware day time showings are cheaper). I can get three months worth of endless streaming from Netflix for that price. Also, there needs to be some advantage to seeing it in the theater that I can't get at home. That's hard to doing seeing as I have a 60" 3D screen and a sound system that would probably cause my house to fail structurally if I turned it up loud enough.

I have almost no reason to ever go to a theater these days. It's just not worth it, to me. I was excited as hell for Jurassic World. I actually had bought tickets to opening night Imax and had to bail. I ended up just waiting to see it at home. Realistically, the only film on my movie theater radar is ID4-Resurgence, and that's only so I can discuss it on the internet.

[BlobVanDam]

Also, there needs to be some advantage to seeing it in the theater that I can't get at home.

The advantage is seeing it at all, since if it's showing in the theater, it's not showing at your home.

[ariich]

Also, there needs to be some advantage to seeing it in the theater that I can't get at home.

The advantage is seeing it at all, since if it's showing in the theater, it's not showing at your home.

That's a timing point, which I think is what Chino was getting at. I'm the same, I hardly ever go to the cinema.

[Chino]

Also, there needs to be some advantage to seeing it in the theater that I can't get at home.

The advantage is seeing it at all, since if it's showing in the theater, it's not showing at your home.

But it will be in two months under another service I already pay for, and if not, I can rent it for $4. I can watch it in my boxers and use a pause button if needed.

[BlobVanDam]

Also, there needs to be some advantage to seeing it in the theater that I can't get at home.

The advantage is seeing it at all, since if it's showing in the theater, it's not showing at your home.

But it will be in two months under another service I already pay for, and if not, I can rent it for $4. I can watch it in my boxers and use a pause button if needed.

I guess that's all good and well if you don't mind waiting that long. If I really want to see something, I don't want to wait for it and be behind on the discussion and excitement.

[Kotowboy]

The cinema is the whole experience.

Watching a dvd at home doesn't come close.

[Chino]

The cinema is the whole experience.

Watching a dvd at home doesn't come close.

Depends on what you're watching. Why they hell would anyone spend $10 a ticket to go see The Butler in the movie theater? What can a theater possibly do for that movie that my setup at home couldn't?

[cramx3]

The cinema is the whole experience.

Watching a dvd at home doesn't come close.

Maybe for you, but my 60 inch TV and surround sound would say that it is a pleasurable experience in the comfort of my own home and couch, and much cheaper food.

Only benefit is getting to see the movie while it is "hot" and being talked about.  Such as TFA, it was hard to wait the week to see it since everyone was talking about it and you didn't want to get spoiled.

[BlobVanDam]

Only benefit is getting to see the movie while it is "hot" and being talked about.  Such as TFA, it was hard to wait the week to see it since everyone was talking about it and you didn't want to get spoiled.

Good luck to anyone trying to last until TFA gets released for home viewing without having it spoiled for them beforehand.

[Chino]

The cinema is the whole experience.

Watching a dvd at home doesn't come close.

Maybe for you, but my 60 inch TV and surround sound would say that it is a pleasurable experience in the comfort of my own home and couch, and much cheaper food.

This. So much this. Last time I went to a movie (saw The Martian), there was a sea of little fucks throughout the theater snapchatting with that new forward flash feature on iPhones. Annoying as hell. I'd say my living room set up is infinitely more comfortable and provides an equally good experience.

[hefdaddy42]

I wonder how much general movie fatigue factors into how much movies make, if any at all, or if it even exists.

I'm referring to how big Hollywood movies seem to be coming out more and more now, possibly causing the general population to be a bit tired of watching them.

I'm shocked MARVEL movies *still* bring in the big bucks.  Aren't people just sick to death of superheroes yet ?

No, because Marvel continues to produce well-written, well-directed films with legit actors giving believable performances, that HAPPEN to be super hero films.

[cramx3]

I wonder how much general movie fatigue factors into how much movies make, if any at all, or if it even exists.

I'm referring to how big Hollywood movies seem to be coming out more and more now, possibly causing the general population to be a bit tired of watching them.

I'm shocked MARVEL movies *still* bring in the big bucks.  Aren't people just sick to death of superheroes yet ?

No, because Marvel continues to produce well-written, well-directed films with legit actors giving believable performances, that HAPPEN to be super hero films.

Maybe so, but I am also sick of super hero films.

[Kotowboy]

Maybe so, but I am also sick of super hero films.

[Kotowboy]

The cinema is the whole experience.

Watching a dvd at home doesn't come close.

Depends on what you're watching. Why they hell would anyone spend $10 a ticket to go see The Butler in the movie theater? What can a theater possibly do for that movie that my setup at home couldn't?

Exactly - which is why I mainly go and see sci fi / action in the cinema.

And it supports my argument that Into Darkness may be a very flawed movie - but on the big screen it's immensely entertaining.