Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?

[Chino]

What do you guys think? Will it surpass Avatar's record of $2.7B? I don't think I've ever seen so much hype for a movie.

[kaos2900]

Yes.

[BlobVanDam]

Yes.

[Bolsters]

Yes.

[bl5150]

easy peasy

[bout to crash]

For sure.

[cramx3]

Is this even a real question?  Of course, this will shatter every box office record.

[gmillerdrake]

Is this even a real question?  Of course, this will shatter every box office record.

This. And, if it's even half way decent the subsequent sequels will break each record subsequently.......

[Chino]

Is this even a real question?  Of course, this will shatter every box office record.

Yes it was a real question. The highest estimate I've read so far has been $1.7B worldwide. That's almost a billion shy of Avatar.

I'm wondering if the new Star Wars movie is going to generate return trips to the theater. That's what made Avatar its money. I know many of you would label me insane for seeing it 10 times in the theaters, but I wasn't the only one. Star Wars is going to have to pull something similar off to make more than $2B, I would think. Avatar also had extra ticket revenue from 3D ticket prices. Is Episode VII in 3D? I haven't seen that advertised if it is.

[MrBoom_shack-a-lack]

Yes although there were also alot of hype for TPM and that movie "only" reached #20 but yea if TFA turns out to suck it still probably gonna shatter some records anyway.

[Zantera]

I don't think it will honestly, even if I hope so. Avatar is that lightning in a bottle, once in a lifetime success. There's a tiny chance Star Wars could do it, but when people say it will smash it easily, I question whether or not they know exactly how crazy the record is. What made Avatar such a success was that it kept on bringing the dollars week after week without any real competition, people who saw it wanted to see it again and brought new friends to see it. Avatar didn't have a strong first weekend but interestingly enough the drop off was almost non existent and it seemed to earn more money with each week. You only reach 2.7 billion dollars if the majority of the audience goes and see the movie not twice, not three times but maybe four times or more.

It will definitely break the record for biggest opening weekend in December, that I have no doubt about. It has a decent window to earn big bucks, but once you get into February/March there's a few other blockbusters coming out, but Star Wars will have a crazy opening weekend and a great January. I think it will make 2 billion, but Avatar is 0.7 billion ahead of that.. it's a stretch.

[Chino]

Avatar only made $77M on its opening weekend.

It will definitely break the record for biggest opening weekend in December

I think it'll break the record for largest opening weekend ever.

[hefdaddy42]

Yeah, I think it will.

[Kotowboy]

If it doesn't break Avatar's record - then it will get bloody close.

I am really interested in watching the figures.


Here's how the all time list looks now :
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

It will probably beat Jurassic Park and Titanic.

[Zantera]

It will probably beat Jurassic Park and Titanic.

Jurassic World you mean?

[RuRoRul]

No. It will break records for opening weekends, being fastest to reach $1bn, maybe reach $ 2bn, but its legs will fizzle out before it can reach $2.8bn.

That is my current prediction obviously it may turn out to be wrong. Wild cards are markets around the world that have grown hugely since Avatar, primarily China. If this becomes a phenomenon in China far bigger than the biggest films to date (think 2x as much as the current top grossing Western films in China) then it will have a better chance of beating Avatar. But I amn't really in a good position to tell whether it is likely to play really strongly in China or not (obviously it will be a success, but I'm talking about whether it does disproportionately well in China compared to elsewhere). Maybe being the first big "Star Wars" release in China since that marker has grown will make it a huge phenomenon, or maybe the fact that China may not have the same nostalgia and goodwill towards Star Wars will mean it won't do that much better there than more modern franchises like Transformers - like I said I have no idea of peoples' attitudes about in China.

Also obviously depends how good it is, as in how well received and appealing to a mass audience. I know people will think that doesn't really matter that much, and it probably won't for opening weekends and getting big numbers quickly, but I think it will matter very much for reaching the overall record. My personal suspicion is that the film is not going to be as great as it is hyped to be, which will mean after the initial buzz there won't be as big a demand from people going back ton see it again and again or people who didn't care enough to see it quickly feeling like they "have to" go and see it later. 

[cramx3]

My personal suspicion is that the film is not going to be as great as it is hyped to be, which will mean after the initial buzz there won't be as big a demand from people going back ton see it again and again or people who didn't care enough to see it quickly feeling like they "have to" go and see it later.

Well that's the problem with hype so big as this film is getting, it's such large hype that people will be disappointed because the expectation is unreal.  That's how I felt with Jurassic World.

I guess my initial thought of "is this even a question?" was a bit off, I just assumed based on the trailer reactions and the star wars name would be enouhg to through this movie into its own catagory of setting the bar for movie success, but I didn't realize just how much Avatar really did make.  I guess we will see, but I still think it will be at the top just because it is star wars and the fact that it actually looks like it will be a good movie as compared to episode 1.

[FlyingBIZKIT]

I don't see any case where it doesn't. No disrespect to Avatar, but Star Wars is just in a completely different league.

[Kotowboy]

In defence of Avatar - it made almost 3bn dollars on it's own terms. It wasn't a sequel and it didn't have brand recognition or nostalgia.

If The Force Awakens was a brand new IP and was just a big original summer sci fi - it would probably make $350m tops.

[RuRoRul]

 Just having a look at the box office charts and notice that all the Star Wars films are very Domestic (i.e. US) skewed. Just look at the % of total gross that is domestic for Star Wars (A New Hope) and the prequel trilogy compared to, say, Avatar. Star Wars always made around 45% or more of its gross in the USA, where as Avatar made only 27%.

So let's say Star Wars 7 were to smash all US box office records and make $1bn domestically, beating Avatar at $760m by over $240m... If it had 40% of its gross in the US (lower than all the previous Star Wars films) it would still "only" reach $2.5bn globally, failing to surpass Avatar. It would require just under 36% domestic to beat Avatar globally, which is easily possible but as I said it depends on Star Wars being as appealing globally as in the US. And that's assuming Star Wars is making $1bn in USA and absolutely demolishing Avatar and Titanic there... If it beats Avatar by, say, $40m in America and makes $800m there, it would need about 28% domestic gross, which is much lower than any Star Wars film so far.

That's why I voted it will be top in the USA (even Jurassic World and The Avengers weren't that far behind Avatar domestically, so Star Wars could probably top it) but not surpass it globally. But like I said, the global market has changed a lot and people in China could be even more hyped than the USA to get a new Star Wars for essentially the first time. Living in the UK and consuming media that is very dominated by the US, it is hard to get a feel for what the attitudes around the world will be.

[Kotowboy]

The thing is though - Avatar has a really bad rep. But you almost never - like ever - meet people who don't actually like Star Wars. ( Original trilogy ).

[Chino]

I don't see any case where it doesn't. No disrespect to Avatar, but Star Wars is just in a completely different league.

I get that, but the only people that are going to go see episode VII are people who already love Star Wars. Avatar appealed to mostly everyone in one way or another (Nature fans, alien lovers, space geeks, 3D first timers, etc..._. What I mean by that is you didn't necessarily need to be a fan of the franchise or genre to want to go see it. My mother who has no interest in anything SciFi went and saw it in theaters twice. I don't see anyone outside of the Star Wars community going out of there way to see this regardless how good the press ends up being for it.

[Chino]

The thing is though - Avatar has a really bad rep. But you almost never - like ever - meet people who don't actually like Star Wars. ( Original trilogy ).

I watched episodes IV and V and was bored to death. Didn't even bother with VI.

[Kotowboy]

The thing is though - Avatar has a really bad rep. But you almost never - like ever - meet people who don't actually like Star Wars. ( Original trilogy ).

I watched episodes IV and V and was bored to death. Didn't even bother with VI.

I'm not a Star Wars fan and people are always shocked

It seems to be one of those things you're not allowed to dislike.

[Zantera]

The thing is though - Avatar has a really bad rep. But you almost never - like ever - meet people who don't actually like Star Wars. ( Original trilogy ).

That has come with time though. I'd say part of what made Avatar so successful was the fact that it was a brand new thing. Nobody knew the mythos or lore of Avatar, and that combined with the 3D/effects craze resulted in people flocking out to the theaters to see Avatar. Everybody wanted to see what it was all about. The bad reputation/mixed reception kinda came over time, and by then people had already seen it at least once in theaters.

With Star Wars, it's both a blessing and a curse that it is a known brand. It's probably the most beloved franchise in history, but you're still gonna get people who say "No I won't watch that because I don't care about Star Wars". With Avatar you didn't get that, because it was a brand new thing.

[Kotowboy]

Star Wars has three dreadful films in it's canon too. I think if the PT didn't exist - it could potentially make more.

[RuRoRul]

The thing is though - Avatar has a really bad rep. But you almost never - like ever - meet people who don't actually like Star Wars. ( Original trilogy ).

I watched episodes IV and V and was bored to death. Didn't even bother with VI.

I'm not a Star Wars fan and people are always shocked

It seems to be one of those things you're not allowed to dislike.

That's probably why you never seem to meet people that say they don't like it - it doesn't mean everyone actually is a fan though. After all you probably won't hear that many people going around saying Citizen Kane sucks, but that doesn't mean everyone actually likes or cares about that film.

Avatar had the 3D thing going for it. I personally don't think it is that special as a film in itself, and while it would have been a success it would have done no where near as well if it was just a "regular" sci-fi film without the 3D. But because it had that novelty factor, it became an experience that lots of people felt they "had to" go and try; a completely new film going experience that would be worth at least experiencing (regardless of the actual film itself - imagine going to see the first ever colour film if all you have ever seen is black and white, you are probably not going to be too discerning about what the actual content of the film is as long as it looks good in colour). Also it's an experience that can't really be illegally downloaded, or one you can just wait a few months and get on DVD or see on TV.

Star Wars doesn't have that fundamental novelty going for it. To match Avatar's long term numbers there's going to have to be something appealing enough about the film itself make people a few weeks or months after its release say "You have to go to see there new Star Wars movie", after all the fans who will go and see it just because it is the new Star Wars movie have already seen it once and then seen it again.

[Kotowboy]

People always bring up 3D as the sole reason Avatar did well. There were plenty of 3D movies around the time but none of them did anywhere near as well as Avatar.

Mostly you heard of people saying they wished Pandora was real.

For me it was the spectacle, the direction, the non Michael Bay shaky cam frame fucking. You could see everything that was happening. It had great pacing.

It was a proper fun movie that just kept building until the climax like a video game.

Oh and Force Awakens is in 3D too - so that'll add 33% to the box office

[Chino]

People always bring up 3D as the sole reason Avatar did well. There were plenty of 3D movies around the time but none of them did anywhere near as well as Avatar.

To be fair though, that 3D boom started with Avatar, regardless of the fact that there were 3D releases prior. Most theaters didn't even have digital 3D projectors installed and only did so because they'd miss out on the Avatar train otherwise. Avatar filmed from beginning to end in 3D. 98% of the 3D movies that followed were filmed in 2D and converted to 3D in post production. That's usually why they look like shit.

[cramx3]

People always bring up 3D as the sole reason Avatar did well. There were plenty of 3D movies around the time but none of them did anywhere near as well as Avatar.

To be fair though, that 3D boom started with Avatar, regardless of the fact that there were 3D releases prior. Most theaters didn't even have digital 3D projectors installed and only did so because they'd miss out on the Avatar train otherwise. Avatar filmed from beginning to end in 3D. 98% of the 3D movies that followed were filmed in 2D and converted to 3D in post production. That's usually why they look like shit.

Yea there is a big difference in the Avatar 3D vs. other movies in 3D.  I still have not seen any movie as visually appealing as Avatar in IMAX 3D.  The Hobbit didn't even come close IMO and that had the high frame rate technology (I dont believe Avatar did?).

[Chino]

People always bring up 3D as the sole reason Avatar did well. There were plenty of 3D movies around the time but none of them did anywhere near as well as Avatar.

To be fair though, that 3D boom started with Avatar, regardless of the fact that there were 3D releases prior. Most theaters didn't even have digital 3D projectors installed and only did so because they'd miss out on the Avatar train otherwise. Avatar filmed from beginning to end in 3D. 98% of the 3D movies that followed were filmed in 2D and converted to 3D in post production. That's usually why they look like shit.

Yea there is a big difference in the Avatar 3D vs. other movies in 3D.  I still have not seen any movie as visually appealing as Avatar in IMAX 3D.  The Hobbit didn't even come close IMO and that had the high frame rate technology (I dont believe Avatar did?).

The next three films will be utilizing the higher frame rates from what I've gathered. Jim hasn't confirmed whether they'll be 48fps or 60fps.

The only other movie that I can think of that was on the same level as Avatar in regards to 3D was Life of Pi, and that was filmed in native 3D using the same cameras and technology as Avatar.

[Kotowboy]

Other movie I saw that looked great in 3D was Prometheus.

[cramx3]

People always bring up 3D as the sole reason Avatar did well. There were plenty of 3D movies around the time but none of them did anywhere near as well as Avatar.

To be fair though, that 3D boom started with Avatar, regardless of the fact that there were 3D releases prior. Most theaters didn't even have digital 3D projectors installed and only did so because they'd miss out on the Avatar train otherwise. Avatar filmed from beginning to end in 3D. 98% of the 3D movies that followed were filmed in 2D and converted to 3D in post production. That's usually why they look like shit.

Yea there is a big difference in the Avatar 3D vs. other movies in 3D.  I still have not seen any movie as visually appealing as Avatar in IMAX 3D.  The Hobbit didn't even come close IMO and that had the high frame rate technology (I dont believe Avatar did?).

The next three films will be utilizing the higher frame rates from what I've gathered. Jim hasn't confirmed whether they'll be 48fps or 60fps.

The only other movie that I can think of that was on the same level as Avatar in regards to 3D was Life of Pi, and that was filmed in native 3D using the same cameras and technology as Avatar.

Ah yea, Life of Pi was very beautiful as well, but I never saw that in 3D.  Looks amazing on my TV at home and a reason why its been on my DVR for over 2 years now.

[El Barto]

I'm going with no for two reasons. First, James Cameron is a better filmmaker. He makes movies that are visually phenomenal, and combined with the then-groundbreaking 3D Avatar was something that A: had to be seen, and B: had to be seen numerous times by many. The second problem is that while there are plenty of nerdy chicks in the world, they're still a subset of the movie-going public. Avatar appealed to all chicks because of some love story (or so I gather). That will account for a considerable amount of repeat viewings. SWWhatever won't have such a thing. Your average soccer mom might well want to see Avatar for some reason, and her jailbate daughter might want to see it numerous times, but neither will have much of an interest in a new SW movie.

And let's keep in mind that number two on that list is Titanic, and it's there for the exact same reasons. It was a beautiful spectacle of Cameron film-making and it had chick-appeal.

[cramx3]

Its funny because this discussion just popped up in a work chat room for video gamers.  Everyone is thinking it will beat Avatar easily, this one guy is saying 3.5 billion gross.  I dont know,  I though that as well but after reading this thread maybe not and maybe not even close to 3 billion.