Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?

[TL]

Definitely agreed that the Star Wars and Avatar sequels almost definitely won't make as much as TFA and Avatar 1. With TFA, there was an amount of hype and buildup there that we probably won't see for another film for a long time. With Avatar, a lot of the technical achievements, while impressive, won't be as novel as they were with the first film.

All of these films are going to make a ton of money, just not "holy shit that's more money than I thought there was money" money.

There's no way Disney moved Star Wars to Decenmber without already knowing before hand that Avatar had been pushed back. Disney wouldn't want the competition, regardless how great the movie may be. And Avatar is getting it's own land in a Disney park that they were trying to coincide the opening of with the sequel's release. Disney was probably made aware Avatar would be being delayed for weeks now, maybe months.

This. While it would be a fascinating box office match-up, neither series benefits from having another film of that scale in theaters at the same time.

If Episode 8 does the same business as 7 - it'll plateau by early January. Avatar 2 could come out on January 18 instead.

While certainly not impossible, I'd be very skeptical. January tends to be more of a dumping ground than a time to release a film in a prominent series.

[Kotowboy]

So...

Disney paid $4bn for Lucasfilm.


The Force Awakens has made $2bn.


They still have five more star wars movies to come out and god knows how much merchandise. That $4bn is starting to look like an absolute steal.

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' set to generate $5bn in merchandise sales in first year

All told - Disney might make 10x back what they paid George Lucas.

[cramx3]

Everyone makes out with that deal

[gmillerdrake]

So...

Disney paid $4bn for Lucasfilm.


The Force Awakens has made $2bn.


They still have five more star wars movies to come out and god knows how much merchandise. That $4bn is starting to look like an absolute steal.

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' set to generate $5bn in merchandise sales in first year

All told - Disney might make 10x back what they paid George Lucas.

Disney came out and admitted they got a steal and called STAR WARS a 'Gold Mine'....which it is. If done correctly, they can make STAR WARS movies until mankind goes extinct. There are so many possibilities....they really are endless, IF it's set up and done correctly.

[Kotowboy]

The trouble is they will get greedy and will probably try to set up their own Cinematic Universe.

After 2020 they should maybe carry on with some more Anthology movies every couple of years...

But I don't think they should carry on with the "legacy" movies and do Episodes 10 - 12 right away.

Let people miss it again.

[bosk1]

And, again, all we are talking about so far are box office sales.  I am sure Disney has already made back MORE than the $4 billion in merchandising alone.  When you take into account home video sales, increase park revenue once the new Star Wars stuff is done, ad revenues from other companies using Star Wars branding (which may perhaps be the biggest source of revenue of all), and other sources of revenue, the will make several times that $4 billion figure even if they never released another single film.  Think about that.

[Chino]

Did Lucas sell it for $4B outright, or does he receive any kind of additional royalties?

[Kotowboy]

Did Lucas sell it for $4B outright, or does he receive any kind of additional royalties?

I'd be surprised if he handed over EVERYTHING. Legally he is entitled to royalties from the name and the characters alone.

If he handed over EVERYTHING than $4bn really is super cheap...



....He said he had no control and was originally going to stay on as exec consultant. But obviously he thought he still had a modicum of control and wanted to write scripts and they turned him down.

[bosk1]

Did Lucas sell it for $4B outright, or does he receive any kind of additional royalties?

Well, given how revolutionary and smart he was way back in the beginning to structure his contracts so that he retained sole right to merchandising in an age where NOBODY was doing that, and how he immediately turned Star Wars into a merchandising juggernaut, I would imagine he was smart enough to still retain some sort of income stream this time around.  No idea what that looks like, but I would be surprised if he did not retain something.

[TL]

The trouble is they will get greedy and will probably try to set up their own Cinematic Universe.

After 2020 they should maybe carry on with some more Anthology movies every couple of years...

But I don't think they should carry on with the "legacy" movies and do Episodes 10 - 12 right away.

Let people miss it again.

Yeah. I'm really hoping they ease off after the current planned slate (six movies in six years already feels like pushing it a bit).
That said, I'm not going to be the least bit surprised if they overdo it and just drive Star Wars into the ground before finally taking a break for a bit.

[bosk1]

If they are stories people want to see/hear and they are done well, I'm not sure how it is "driving Star Wars into the ground," even if they were to do 100 movies.

[Kotowboy]

That said, I'm not going to be the least bit surprised if they overdo it and just drive Star Wars into the ground before finally taking a break for a bit.

Then they'll reboot from Episode I all over again.

[cramx3]

That said, I'm not going to be the least bit surprised if they overdo it and just drive Star Wars into the ground before finally taking a break for a bit.

Then they'll reboot from Episode I all over again.

Maybe doing that after episode 9 is not a bad idea.

[Kotowboy]

I think just leave the prequels. We really don't need that story re told.

[bosk1]

I agree.  Let's just accept that Lucas botched it and move on. 

[Kotowboy]

I agree.  Let's just accept that Lucas botched it and move on.

Plus all you need to know about the prequels was summed up in that one scene from A New Hope where Obi Wan tells Luke about Anakin.

[TL]

Yeah. While there could have been an interesting story there if the prequels had been handled well, at this point, I think it's best to just accept that they happened and keep moving on to untold stories.

If they are stories people want to see/hear and they are done well, I'm not sure how it is "driving Star Wars into the ground," even if they were to do 100 movies.

I'll admit, "driving [it] into the ground" may be a bit dramatic.
If they can keep making great movies with compelling stories that people want to see, that will be great.

I think more than anything, I'd be concerned about people getting burnt out on the films a bit, even if the quality stays up. Even having just a year or two without a film would probably be a good idea eventually.

[gmillerdrake]

There could easily be a story line of Kylo Ren having knocked up some random chic on one of these planets.....then there's an 'evil' re-birth. Assuming that the outcome of the next two movies are good beats evil.

They could jump several generations ahead where maybe the Jedi are back in full force.....or have been corrupted and one 'good' one decides he/she has to take them on to reset the Jedi way.

who knows? Plenty of options....just has to be done well and CAST well. I think for as critiqued as the story and what not of the prequels has been the casting of those characters was atrocious. I didn't even care for McGregor as Obi Wan....obviously Christiansen was a joke....Portman, c'mon...she was brutal. All around bad casting.

[bosk1]

Portman, c'mon...she was brutal. All around bad casting.

Well, that's what happens when you cast livestock as one of your main characters. 

[Kotowboy]

Is that supposed to mean she's ugly ?


Because...

[TL]

I don't think casting was as big of an issue with the prequels as the directing was.
Ewan McGregor, Liam Neeson, Natalie Portman, and Samuel Jackson have all shown themselves to be great actors when given decent material and direction. McGregor especially does a great job with what little he's given to work with in the prequels. There've been a number of stories that have come out from people who worked on those films, basically all saying that Lucas really doesn't know how to direct actors, and during the making of those films seemed to have very little interest in actually directing, focusing mostly on the technical side of the production.

[gmillerdrake]

I don't think casting was as big of an issue with the prequels as the directing was.
Ewan McGregor, Liam Neeson, Natalie Portman, and Samuel Jackson have all shown themselves to be great actors when given decent material and direction. McGregor especially does a great job with what little he's given to work with in the prequels. There've been a number of stories that have come out from people who worked on those films, basically all saying that Lucas really doesn't know how to direct actors, and during the making of those films seemed to have very little interest in actually directing, focusing mostly on the technical side of the production.

That's fair then....I'll let them have that 'out' because they are good actors. It just never 'felt' like McGregor was Obi Wan.....none of them seemed to be the people they were supposed to be portraying. The strength of the OT and especially TFA is those 'were' Luke, and Han and Rey and Finn. they weren't actors pretending to be them, which is what the Prequels felt like.

[hefdaddy42]

I agree that writing and directing were definitely the weak spots for those films.

But Hayden Christiansen gets no pass.  He's just not very good.

[DarkLord_Lalinc]

[bl5150]

But Hayden Christiansen gets no pass.  He's just not very good.

I didn't notice all the other faults that get talked about with the PT ,as I couldn't drag myself away from his performance (in a trainwreck kinda way)

[TioJorge]

dat lip quiver doe

[DarkLord_Lalinc]

I can't really imagine someone in the PT sets (a room with a blue screen lol) saying 'that was a great shot, Hayden'.

[TioJorge]

I like to imagine that being like the 15th take and everyone saying just that in a way that sounds like they're about to explode with frustration and rage, facepalming and then moving on.

[DarkLord_Lalinc]

I like to imagine that being like the 15th take and everyone saying just that in a way that sounds like they're about to explode with frustration and rage, facepalming and then moving on.

Everyone except George Lucas. I can picture him applauding and saying 'yeah, we definitely need to have Darth Vader shout NOOO while he uses the force to destroy the robots that just performed surgery on him'.

[kaos2900]

I would like a movie focused on the history of the sith and how they became bitter enemies of the jedi.

[gmillerdrake]

I would like a movie focused on the history of the sith and how they became bitter enemies of the jedi.

this would be awesome. You know it would be something along the lines of there never were the Jedi or the Sith....they once were the "insert clever name of a group" and then a rift began to form as to which way they should use their power.

[DarkLord_Lalinc]

I would like a movie focused on the history of the sith and how they became bitter enemies of the jedi.

This, or something from the Old Republic. There are some pretty awesome storylines from those times portrayed in videogames that would totally rock the big screen.

[ariich]

I would like a movie focused on the history of the sith and how they became bitter enemies of the jedi.

This, or something from the Old Republic. There are some pretty awesome storylines from those times portrayed in videogames that would totally rock the big screen.

The KOTOR games are fantastic in terms of story and somewhat let down by clunky gameplay. Would love those sorts of ideas to be explored on screen.

[Chino]

How come when it comes to Avatar, many people say things like "why do you need 4 movies to explain a group of blue people?" and "Is there anything left to tell? Cameron just wants a cash grab", but when it comes to Star Wars, the world seems ready to accept as many stories as they could possibly come up with?

[gmillerdrake]

How come when it comes to Avatar, many people say things like "why do you need 4 movies to explain a group of blue people?" and "Is there anything left to tell? Cameron just wants a cash grab, but when it comes to Star Wars, the world seems ready to accept as many stories as they could possibly come up with?

I'm actually really curious to see what he's got up his sleeve. Say what you want about the guy but he produces 'winners'....shoot, ALIENS is one of my favorite movies of all time. I can't imagine he's going to put this much effort into something and it not be gold.