Shadow Ninja's Homestuck roulette: obama's rap solo

[Evermind]

I had Phantom Elite lined up for Chad's. Then I noticed he had a couple scrobbles on his last.fm for it, and then I realized how easy it would be to guess in the hangman.

[ariich]

I love Ad Infinitum but I wasn't sure Shadow would go for the more Nightwish-esque side of symphonic metal as opposed to straight up power metal.

That's my only real shot here.

[LithoJazzoSphere]

They're on the more tenuous side of symphonic metal anyway, they write the songs for just the band instrumentation first and hire someone to add orchestration later on.  As opposed to Holopainen who seems to write orchestral scores first and tacks the band and vocals on at the end increasingly these days. 

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

I like Nightwish. I really only care for the two Anette albums, though. Tarja doesn't do anything for me, and Floor is incredible but Tuomas has only written boring music for her so far.

Updated:

ariich: LOVEBITES
    1: HOLY WAR
    2: TODAY IS THE DAY
    3: SWAN SONG

TAC: Hwaino
    1: Ashes of the World Tree
    2: Under The Beast's Sun
    3: At The Darkening of Their Heavens

??: _i_d_i__a____
    1: _tal__r_
    2: _hat_v_r _att_r_d
    3: ___a__

wolfking: Wolfheart
    1: The Hunt
    2: Cold Flame
    3: Tyhjyys

??: Angra
    1: The Temple of Hate
    2: Winds of Destination
    3: Morning Star

soupytwist: Ad Infinitum
    1: Unstoppable
    2: Animals
    3: My Justice, Your Pain
    4: See You In Hell

lonestar: KOIAI
    1: Inside
    2: One Way Or Another
    3: Straight To My Heart
    4: A New Picture
    5: My Breath

??: Portishead
    1: All Mine
    2: Half Day Closing
    3: Plastic
    4: Deep Water
    5: We Carry On

Buddyhunter1: Greet Death
    1: Circles of Hell
    2: Bow
    3: You're Gonna Hate What You've Done

jingle.boy: Jason Richardson
    1: __arr__
    2: I_hi__ra
    3: _r_a_i__ Da__ati__

??: Dimmu Borgir
    1: Dreamside Dominions
    2: The Serpentine Offering
    3: Interdimensional Summit
    4: Vredesbyrd

hefdaddy42: Punch Brothers
    1: __ _h __
    2: Thr__ D_t_ a_d a Da_h
    3: Familiarity

??: Zero Hour
    1: The Subterranean
    2: D__i__ a_d V__ti__

??: The Flatliners
    1: _al_i__ __ll__ti__
    2: _arr_ th_ _a___r
    3: _l__d
    4: H_r_ _____ Tr__l_
    5: _______tal
    6: ____t ___r _r_i___

??: Sting
    1: Desert Rose
    2: Seven Days
    3: Love Is Stronger Than Justice (The Munificent Seven)
    4: Fortress Around Your Heart

??: _a__ _f ___th_
    1: L'i_a_i_air_
    2: D_ __t L_t ___r __irit _a__
    3: i_ th_ _a__ _f ___r l_av_
    4: th_ _i__d__ i_ _thi_ ___

Stadler: The Cars
    1: Since I Held You
    2: _i___ ___'r_ ____
    3: Sad Song
    4: Moving in Stereo
    5: All Mixed Up

Guessed letters: RADTLIFVH

[Evermind]

As opposed to Hopolainen who seems to write orchestral scores first and tacks the band and vocals on at the end increasingly these days.

Isn't the Nightwish guy Holopainen? I don't disagree though.

[LithoJazzoSphere]

So Portishead isn't Sacul?  Interesting.

As opposed to Hopolainen who seems to write orchestral scores first and tacks the band and vocals on at the end increasingly these days.

Isn't the Nightwish guy Holopainen?

Yes.  I kind of assumed he was a household name here, but maybe he isn't?

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

No it is, you guys just guess a hundred things at once and keep editing your posts. I'm lucky to get what I do.

[LithoJazzoSphere]

I usually just keep editing until I notice another post has appeared below mine. 

[Evermind]

As opposed to Hopolainen who seems to write orchestral scores first and tacks the band and vocals on at the end increasingly these days.

Isn't the Nightwish guy Holopainen?

Yes.  I kind of assumed he was a household name here, but maybe he isn't?

Yeah, I was just pointing out you've got his surname wrong. I mean, no big deal, I'm apparently still in the auditor/Indi's roulette/hangman mode.

[LithoJazzoSphere]

Oh, I typed it too fast and skim-edited it even faster I guess.     Is there a name for a Spoonerism within a word as opposed to between two words, or is it still just a Spoonerism?  Because that's what it looks like I did.  Hmm. 

[Stadler]

Sting:

1: Desert Rose
2: Seven Days (AWESOME song)
3: Love Is Stronger Than Justice (The Munificent Seven)
4: Fortress Around Your Heart

[soupytwist]

OK.  3 point lead one round left - I think I'm going to play it safe?  Although (The) Phantom Elite scoring only a 5 has me a little worried about my selection.

Yeah, Phantom Elite and Ad Infinitum occupy similar sonic spaces for me, and hopefully not for Shadow Ninja.     Ad Infinitum being more symphonic, Phantom Elite a bit more power-prog leaning.  I can't remember if I've ever sent them or not in a roulette yet, ariich usually beats me to it.

It was a toss up between Ad Infinitum or Edge of Paradise - I feel Melissa's vocals are a safer bet though (and Visions of Atlantis got me an 8 earlier).  Probably should have just gone with Alestorm though 

[ariich]

Filling in some gaps:

TAC: Hwaino
    1: Ashes of the World Tree
    2: Under The Beast's Sun
    3: At The Darkening of Their Heavens

wolfking: Wolfheart
    1: The Hunt
    2: Cold Flame
    3: Tyhjyys

??: KOIAI
    1: Inside
    2: One Way Or Another
    3: Straight To My Heart
    4: A New Picture
    5: My Breath

Also this is surely lonestar?!

[ariich]

OK.  3 point lead one round left - I think I'm going to play it safe?  Although (The) Phantom Elite scoring only a 5 has me a little worried about my selection.

Yeah, Phantom Elite and Ad Infinitum occupy similar sonic spaces for me, and hopefully not for Shadow Ninja.     Ad Infinitum being more symphonic, Phantom Elite a bit more power-prog leaning.  I can't remember if I've ever sent them or not in a roulette yet, ariich usually beats me to it.

It was a toss up between Ad Infinitum or Edge of Paradise - I feel Melissa's vocals are a safer bet though.   Probably should have just gone with Alestorm though 

She's amazing and I have no issue losing to her.

[ariich]

Sting is probably King.

More gap filling!

Buddyhunter1: Greet Death
    1: Circles of Hell
    2: Bow
    3: You're Gonna Hate What You've Done

??: Dimmu Borgir
    1: Dreamside Dominions
    2: The Serpentine Offering
    3: Interdimensional Summit
    4: Vredesbyrd

[King Postwhore]

Rich is correct 

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

What do you know about it, you don't even listen to Dimmu Borgir!

All correct, will update sometime soon.

[King Puppies and the Acid Guppies]

Good ol Demon Burger

[ariich]

The idea of Joe chilling out to some Dimmu Borgir amuses me for some reason.

[lonestar]

??: KOIAI
    1: Inside
    2: One Way Or Another
    3: Straight To My Heart
    4: A New Picture
    5: My Breath

Also this is surely lonestar?!

Bout time someone got this...btw when you do your dive into Li-Sa X band on your roulette review, these are the albums you need to check out. This is what the Li-Sa X Band morphed into, same two guitarists and they added a new singer and Kanade Soto on drums. I think the bassist is Lisa's brother.

[King Puppies and the Acid Guppies]

Wait, Dacul sent Portishead but didn't send Glorybox?

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

Evermind sent it in my last roulette.

[twosuitsluke]

The idea of Joe chilling out to some Dimmu Borgir amuses me for some reason.

The idea of Joe trying to spell Puritanical Euphoric Misanthropia amuses me even more (what a fucking record by the way, Holy shit!).

[Stadler]

The idea of Joe chilling out to some Dimmu Borgir amuses me for some reason.

I read that twice before I realized it was "AMUSES" not "AROUSES". 

[ariich]

The idea of Joe chilling out to some Dimmu Borgir amuses me for some reason.

I read that twice before I realized it was "AMUSES" not "AROUSES". 

I mean, that too.

[TAC]

The idea of Joe chilling out to some Dimmu Borgir amuses me for some reason.

I read that twice before I realized it was "AMUSES" not "AROUSES".

It can say whatever you want it to say.

[King Postwhore]

The idea of Joe chilling out to some Dimmu Borgir amuses me for some reason.

Ii like a few of their tunes.

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

OK, time for some statistics!



Shockingly, Litho is not the participant with the highest average submission length, as a surprise contender came up from behind to steal his crown. In addition, note Stadler's absolutely insane standard deviation of only 18 seconds. This of course warrants rearranging the table to look at standard deviation.



Now we can clearly who's hewing very closely to their strategy vs. who's completely freewheeling it in terms of submission length.

At this point, of course, I know what you're thinking. Obviously, we could calculate an average standard deviation across everyone, and then compare everyone's individual standard deviations to that. That is, we could determine everyone's average deviation from the average standard deviation. We all agree this is a very interesting prospect, and so of course I have done it.



I thought about going another level deeper, but I'll spare you all for now. Next I'll see about making some graphs for submission length vs. score to see if there's any merit behind a particular strategy (there probably won't be).

[King Puppies and the Acid Guppies]

I didn't realize my standard deviation was so high. 

[ariich]

The top 3 players going into the final round all have high standard deviations (meaning a wide range of different submission lengths) which supports the notion of prioritising quality over quantity.

[King Puppies and the Acid Guppies]

The top 3 players going into the final round all have high standard deviations (meaning a wide range of different submission lengths) which supports the notion of prioritising quality over quantity.

I was right up there too, until I decided to shoot myself in the foot 2 rounds ago, then shoot myself in the other foot last round. 

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

Rich you're totally right, looking at average score vs. standard deviation makes a lot more sense than looking a straight score vs. submission length.



It seems to imply pretty weak correlation, if any, though. Which is weird because just looking at it I feel like I see a trend, but maybe that's just the illusion having the highest value happen to be on the top right.

[TAC]

The only trend I see is me sucking.

[King Puppies and the Acid Guppies]

The only trend I see is me sucking.

So nothing out of the ordinary

[ariich]

It seems to imply pretty weak correlation, if any, though. Which is weird because just looking at it I feel like I see a trend, but maybe that's just the illusion having the highest value happen to be on the top right.

I dunno, I would say the line is steeper than I might have expected actually. It's not a tight regression but that's to be expected unless you'd expect variety of submission lengths to have a very direct effect on the scores, which would be... weird. But realistically it's a second-order effect that correlates with other characteristics of what people send, for example (as I suggested before) people choosing what they consider the songs you'll like most rather than maxing out the 20 minute limit.