Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?

[jammindude]

I think due to the brilliant marketing (best marketing for a film ever?) with Deadpool, it's gonna end up being a bigger surprise than we first thought. Initially I think most of us were expecting it to make maybe 40-45 million dollars opening weekend (domestically), but with the brilliant marketing and the great trailers, I think it will end up closer to the double of that.

Is this sarcasm? I've seen nothing on the movie.

I am vaguely aware that at some point in the future there is a movie about a character named Deadpool. If it weren't for a particular general nerdy page I follow on Facebook, I wouldn't have seen anything about it.

I've heard world of mouth that the movie was coming out.   But I've also found it disappointing that I have actually seen almost nothing.   I believe I saw one trailer when it was first released, and that was a link here I believe.   Not a word on FB, not a trailer at the movies.   Dead silence on nerd forums.     I don't even know when it's finally coming out, nor do I know a single thing about it because the trailer is almost like one of those non-sequitur Old Spice commercials.     So the lack of any info at all has been a little frustrating. 

[Chino]

Yeah it's ridiculous how much money they spend on movies in Hollywood. Look at a film like District 9 which only had a 30 million dollar budget yet was a really great sci-fi film, and still most new sci-fi films have over 100 million as their budget. The Force Awakens probably spent at least 250 million dollars on the marketing, which is insane.

Lol. Way more than that. Avatar spent nearly $250M in marketing. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Disney spent upwards of a billion dollars promoting this film (franchise). I have never seen so many ads, commercials, or coverage for a movie before. Every commercial break, every store you go in, every street you walk down (literally), etc.. all have a reference to Star Wars somewhere.

Fun fact; India put a research satellite into orbit around Mars for less money than it cost to make the movie Gravity.

[The Trooper]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYpxsJHVC-0

Deadpool trailer

[kaos2900]

It looks like it's going to beat Avatar and it hasn't even opened in China yet.

[BlobVanDam]

It looks like it's going to beat Avatar and it hasn't even opened in China yet.

It's going to smash Avatar's US domestic record (it's only a few million off beating it already), but it's a long way from beating the worldwide gross yet. Hopefully China does big numbers for it.

[Chino]

It looks like it's going to beat Avatar and it hasn't even opened in China yet.

Episodes 1, 2, and 3 didn't make $20M combined in China. If TFA managed to make $250M in China, I'd be shocked. That would mean the rest of the world needs to kick in an additional billion.

[Kotowboy]

It's made $1.5bn in record time but I fully expect to see that slow down in the next few weeks.

For example. It made like $500m worldwide in it's first weekend and $88m worldwide this weekend. That's a pretty big drop off.

[bosk1]

Yeah it's ridiculous how much money they spend on movies in Hollywood. Look at a film like District 9 which only had a 30 million dollar budget yet was a really great sci-fi film, and still most new sci-fi films have over 100 million as their budget. The Force Awakens probably spent at least 250 million dollars on the marketing, which is insane.

Lol. Way more than that. Avatar spent nearly $250M in marketing. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Disney spent upwards of a billion dollars promoting this film (franchise). I have never seen so many ads, commercials, or coverage for a movie before. Every commercial break, every store you go in, every street you walk down (literally), etc.. all have a reference to Star Wars somewhere.

But the thing is, a LOT of that isn't even Disney spending money--it is other companies that have spent money to use Star Wars to promote their product.  The car companies paid Disney to use Star Wars in their ads that they--not Disney--are paying to air.  Disney pockets the money and benefits from additional promotion of the film that they don't even have to do.  Toys:  same.  Clothing:  same.  Food items:  same again.  Disney is making a TON off this film, but isn't quite spending as much as you imply.

[Chino]

It's made $1.5bn in record time but I fully expect to see that slow down in the next few weeks.

For example. It made like $500m worldwide in it's first weekend and $88m worldwide this weekend. That's a pretty big drop off.

Exactly. It basically has to do everything it's done all over again. It took Avatar something like 44 days to reach the point the TFA is currently at, and it was still steadily climbing. TFA's graphs are already heading in the other direction.

[Chino]

Yeah it's ridiculous how much money they spend on movies in Hollywood. Look at a film like District 9 which only had a 30 million dollar budget yet was a really great sci-fi film, and still most new sci-fi films have over 100 million as their budget. The Force Awakens probably spent at least 250 million dollars on the marketing, which is insane.

Lol. Way more than that. Avatar spent nearly $250M in marketing. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Disney spent upwards of a billion dollars promoting this film (franchise). I have never seen so many ads, commercials, or coverage for a movie before. Every commercial break, every store you go in, every street you walk down (literally), etc.. all have a reference to Star Wars somewhere.

But the thing is, a LOT of that isn't even Disney spending money--it is other companies that have spent money to use Star Wars to promote their product.  The car companies paid Disney to use Star Wars in their ads that they--not Disney--are paying to air.  Disney pockets the money and benefits from additional promotion of the film that they don't even have to do.  Toys:  same.  Clothing:  same.  Food items:  same again.  Disney is making a TON off this film, but isn't quite spending as much as you imply.

Ohhhh. I wasn't aware of that. I figured Disney was paying every car manufacturer to subtly work their music and stuff into their adds. My mind is blown.

[hefdaddy42]

If you follow genre movie info outlets like aintitcoolnews, slashfilm, comicbookmovie, there has been a steady stream of Deadpool info for a year now.  If you don't follow sites like that, you probably haven't seen much because it is going to be an R-rated film, there have already been at least two red-band trailers, so they aren't being shown in theaters.  It is being marketed (at this point) to a very specific genre audience who already knows who Deadpool is and can't wait to see the film.  I would imagine more broad-based marketing is imminent. 

[Kotowboy]

I found it funny that Kellogs is using Star Wars to promote cereal...



...but then they put Vader on all their boxes


" New Star Wars movie ? That's the Darth Vader movie isn't it ? "

[Zantera]

I found it funny that Kellogs is using Star Wars to promote cereal...



...but then they put Vader on all their boxes


" New Star Wars movie ? That's the Darth Vader movie isn't it ? "

Technically they show his mask for 5 seconds so now they can use him in the marketing! (Insert reference to Plinkett's RotS review with them using Vader in one scene at the end)

[TL]

In addition to the price of 3D tickets in most places, something Avatar had to its advantage was that it was more of a theme park ride than a movie. It was all about taking in a big CGI spectacle as it happened, which is part of why so many people saw it several times in theaters. With a movie that's more about story or characters, even if it's really good, fewer people are going to go see it again and again and again.
If it's more about story and characters, people who like it will probably see it once or twice, and then wait for home media. With something like Avatar that's so heavily focused on the spectacle though, for most of the audience, the added spectacle of seeing it theatrically in 3D is a big part of the experience; they're more likely to see it several times in theaters, because it loses so much in a home viewing.

Big spectacle movies also tend to do well in a wider range of markets. When people want more story driven films, they're more likely to consider more local fare. With big spectacle stuff, it's just a matter of who's making the most spectacle-y stuff, and that mostly happens to be American popcorn movies at the moment. Couple that with several large markets really opening up within the last decade (such as China, among others). It's how Furious 7 managed to make over a billion dollars in the foreign market, while not cracking the Top 30 in the domestic market.

Personally, when I saw Avatar, I was bored out of my mind. It was very much "Really? This is what people are going so crazy for?". I'm definitely rooting for Star Wars to beat it.

[pedantic]Also, the "Domestic" market is Canada and the US, not just the US.  [/pedantic]

[Kotowboy]

This isn't the Avatar thread but I have no idea how people could be *bored* watching Avatar.

The story never stops moving imo. It just keeps on building towards the climax.

[TL]

This isn't the Avatar thread but I have no idea how people could be *bored* watching Avatar.

The story never stops moving imo. It just keeps on building towards the climax.

I can only speak for myself, but I just didn't find anything about the story or characters interesting. Sure, things were happening, but nothing resonated with me or drew me in at all. Combine that with not caring about CGI spectacle (sure, as far as CGI goes, it was very good CGI, and CGI can be used effectively so enhance a film, but if I don't care about the characters or story, and all I'm left with is flashy CGI, then I'm probably going to get bored pretty quickly).

[orcus116]

This isn't the Avatar thread but I have no idea how people could be *bored* watching Avatar.

The story never stops moving imo. It just keeps on building towards the climax.

Predictable as hell story, one-dimensional characters, standard action scenes, and I personally was not really all that impressed by the CGI. I'm not saying the CGI was bad in any way it just never wowed me. It was safe eye candy.

[Zantera]

For me it's a combination of the story being the exact same story of Pocahontas or Dances With Wolves. Now, a story that has been done before CAN work if you like the characters. But I didn't. Sam Worthington is IMO a really bland actor who is serviceable as a smaller role at best, but definitely not engaging enough to be the big star. Michelle Rodriguez plays the same character she does in every movie. The plot itself was predictable, and because the main character and the main conflict was so uninteresting, the movie suffered. Visually it had some great stuff, but to me the humans were portrayed too much like stereotypical bad guys and the Na'vi were portrayed too much as the victims that it wasn't a very interesting conflict.

[TioJorge]

Damn, that rotten, decayed, putrid horse carcass is still being beaten to shit, huh? LET NESSY REST IN PEACE YOU HEARTLESS BASTARDS!!

[Implode]

Damn, that rotten, decayed, putrid horse carcass is still being beaten to shit, huh? LET NESSY REST IN PEACE YOU HEARTLESS BASTARDS!!

 

[Kotowboy]

China 11/5/99 $4,100,273
 
The Phantom Menace.

China - 5/20/05 - - $9,128,645
 
Revenge Of The Sith

China 7/12/02 - - $5,488,408
 
Attack Of The Clones.
 


So yeah - banking on China for big big money may not work out.

[hefdaddy42]

I agree.  The fact that it hadn't opened yet in China was just an interesting tidbit.  China was never going to put it over the top.

Unless things have changed more in China than previously thought.

[Kotowboy]

I also read that China are very ban-happy with films and if they don't like the merest hint that Poe may be gay - they might refuse to show the film.

But that same article also said it might cost Disney "Hundreds of Millions" if China refuse to show it.

But judging on the figures above it's not going to be anywhere near that and they've already made back all their money for Episode 7 just on merch.

[TL]

It's been said several times now; China has opened up as a foreign film market in a big way in the last few years. Like, less than a decade ago.

It used to be that a good run for a western film in China was 5-8 million. In the past few years, the Chinese box office has skyrocketed, often rivaling the North American Domestic market.

The prequels came out before that happened.

I think some people are over-hyping how well Star Wars will do in China, but the box office of the prequels there literally tells us nothing.

Edit: For a similar time frame;

Casino Royale made about $10 million in China in 2006.
Spectre has made more than $83 million there.

Transformers made about $37 million in China in 2007.
Transformers 4 made a bout $320 million in China (beating the NA Domestic total of $245 million).

[hefdaddy42]

Well, if it IS massive in China, things could get a lot more interesting.

I'm just not counting on it, that's all.  After all, a HUGE part of the success of this film is the nostalgia factor, looking back to the older films.  If the older films didn't get much viewership there, there may not be any real reason for the film to do super well there.

[TL]

It's definitely true that it won't have the same nostalgia factor in China.
They'll have to depend more on the 'spectacle' factor, which is what has mainly driven ticket sales for western films in that market in the last few years. Only time well tell how that will go.

[Zantera]

From what I've heard Star Wars isn't THAT big in China compared to let's say Japan, and overall I think the record for a film in China is 390 million (don't remember which one, but not a Star Wars film). It is definitely a wild card, but I don't see it being a HUGE surprise and getting half a billion there or something. I do believe I heard it hasn't opened in India either (not sure) but that would also be a fairly big country, so could probably earn in some bucks.

[TL]

India is interesting in how small of a market they are compared to their population.
Now, part of that has to do with poverty, but another factor is how domestically focused their film industry is. They have a thriving film scene, with most attention given to domestic productions. Sure, foreign films get some attention, but between the domestic focus, typical incomes, and lower ticket prices, they haven't really become a major international market the way we're seeing with China.

[Zantera]

I think Star Wars is one of those very rare examples where a film is so big that it will break through barriers that others wouldn't. Sure, the prequels didn't earn a lot in China, but I think TFA will do much better, and with a country like India that is mainly about their own films, I think Star Wars has that appeal that a lot of people will see it.

Still, that Avatar record is tough despite how well Star Wars has been going so far. The first 3 weeks are pretty much always the majority of what a movie is going to earn, and with SW dropping 30-40% from weekend to weekend, the amount it's earning is gonna shrink fast. Avatar was just weird because it didn't have that decrease, but rather it was going up from week to week. I hope TFA has the legs though, it's a much superior film to Avatar.

[Chino]

I think Star Wars is one of those very rare examples where a film is so big that it will break through barriers that others wouldn't. Sure, the prequels didn't earn a lot in China, but I think TFA will do much better, and with a country like India that is mainly about their own films, I think Star Wars has that appeal that a lot of people will see it.

Still, that Avatar record is tough despite how well Star Wars has been going so far. The first 3 weeks are pretty much always the majority of what a movie is going to earn, and with SW dropping 30-40% from weekend to weekend, the amount it's earning is gonna shrink fast. Avatar was just weird because it didn't have that decrease, but rather it was going up from week to week. I hope TFA has the legs though, it's a much superior film to Avatar.

It took Avatar 44 days to do what TFA did in 18.

[Zantera]

Yeah but TFA is still only half way there with the 3 big money earning weeks behind it. The record is possible, but still a big challenge.

[Chino]

Yeah but TFA is still only half way there with the 3 big money earning weeks behind it. The record is possible, but still a big challenge.

I'm with you. I don't think it's going to get there, but if it does, it's going to be neck and neck. At which point I'll have no choice to attribute its victory to the fact that Avatar was banned in 1600 Chinese theaters after just 2 weeks because it was too successful.

[BlobVanDam]

Yeah but TFA is still only half way there with the 3 big money earning weeks behind it. The record is possible, but still a big challenge.

I'm with you. I don't think it's going to get there, but if it does, it's going to be neck and neck. At which point I'll have no choice to attribute its victory to the fact that Avatar was banned in 1600 Chinese theaters after just 2 weeks because it was too successful.

Or maybe the Chinese just have higher standards.

[Chino]

How much has TFA made outside of the US so far? $800M or so? Looking at recent movies in China, that demographic looks to make up about 10% of non-US revenue. That would indicate that TFA in China will likely make somewhere between $85M and $120M. That's my guess.

Looks like I won't be too far off with this guess. I honestly expected a better opening than that in China.

[TL]

[pedantic]The "Domestic" box office isn't just the US.[/pedantic]

At which point I'll have no choice to attribute its victory to the fact that Avatar was banned in 1600 Chinese theaters after just 2 weeks because it was too successful.

One thing you're glossing over;
While they stopped screening Avatar in 2D in China after a couple weeks, they continued to screen it in 3D. I don't know why they made such an arbitrary decision, but it actually had a long, wide release theatrical run in China, and almost entirely in more expensive 3D screenings.