Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?

[Chino]

$3.5B if you include the retarded amount of merchandise that we're going to see this holiday season.

[cramx3]

$3.5B if you include the retarded amount of merchandise that we're going to see this holiday season.

Oh if you include merch than we are talking ridiculous money, the merch stands are already stocked with Star Wars stuff and we haven't gotten to November yet.

I stopped at a rest stop in Maryland, tons of star wars stuff on the shelves of the store.

[Kotowboy]

$3.5B if you include the retarded amount of merchandise that we're going to see this holiday season.

Luckily it doesn't count towards the Box Office Gross.

[Kotowboy]

Its funny because this discussion just popped up in a work chat room for video gamers.  Everyone is thinking it will beat Avatar easily, this one guy is saying 3.5 billion gross.  I dont know,  I though that as well but after reading this thread maybe not and maybe not even close to 3 billion.

Nowhere near.

1. $1bn without breaking a sweat - possibly opening week.

2. $2bn if it's good and people keep going back to see it in 3D.

3. $3bn If it plays in IMAX 3D for the entirety of it's theatrical run - which will most likely be six months give or take.


My prediction is : $2.3bn all in all.

[Chino]

You also have to remember that Avatar went back into theaters 08/2010 with nine minutes of additional footage (saw it twice). That's factored into the $2.7B as well.

[Kotowboy]

You also have to remember that Avatar went back into theaters 08/2010 with nine minutes of additional footage (saw it twice). That's factored into the $2.7B as well.

As I recall it didn't even make $1m on it's re-release.


I stand corrected !!


During its 12-week re-release, Avatar: Special Edition grossed an additional $10.74 million in North America and $22.46 million overseas for a worldwide total of $33.2 million.[5]

But 33,000,000 out of 2,800,000,000 is neither here nor there really !

[Kotowboy]

Speaking of Avatar - now that James Horner has passed - I wonder who Jim Cameron will get to score Avatar II - IV ?

I don't think he'd go for John Williams as he is kind of Spielberg's guy.

I'm thinking maybe Alan Silvestri or Michael Giacchino

[Implode]

I'm going with no for two reasons. First, James Cameron is a better filmmaker. He makes movies that are visually phenomenal, and combined with the then-groundbreaking 3D Avatar was something that A: had to be seen, and B: had to be seen numerous times by many. The second problem is that while there are plenty of nerdy chicks in the world, they're still a subset of the movie-going public. Avatar appealed to all chicks because of some love story (or so I gather). That will account for a considerable amount of repeat viewings. SWWhatever won't have such a thing. Your average soccer mom might well want to see Avatar for some reason, and her jailbate daughter might want to see it numerous times, but neither will have much of an interest in a new SW movie.

And let's keep in mind that number two on that list is Titanic, and it's there for the exact same reasons. It was a beautiful spectacle of Cameron film-making and it had chick-appeal.

I just want to acknowledge what Barto is saying here. All of this is 100% true in why both Avatar and Titanic are record hold/breaking movies. They aren't just good/effective movies, they are amazing products.

That being said I'd like to think that Star Wars will break all the records, but honestly if it doesn't it's because it doesn't have the qualities laid out above.

[Kotowboy]

Yes. Titanic is an amazing spectacle.

[FlyingBIZKIT]

I don't see any case where it doesn't. No disrespect to Avatar, but Star Wars is just in a completely different league.

I get that, but the only people that are going to go see episode VII are people who already love Star Wars. Avatar appealed to mostly everyone in one way or another (Nature fans, alien lovers, space geeks, 3D first timers, etc..._. What I mean by that is you didn't necessarily need to be a fan of the franchise or genre to want to go see it. My mother who has no interest in anything SciFi went and saw it in theaters twice. I don't see anyone outside of the Star Wars community going out of there way to see this regardless how good the press ends up being for it.

I understand what you mean. Good points.

[Fluffy Lothario]

Regardless of the obsessiveness of Star Wars fans, I think it’s a tad presumptious to decide it’s going to be the highest grossing film of all time before knowing how well it’s received.

[gmillerdrake]

$3.5B if you include the retarded amount of merchandise that we're going to see this holiday season.

Oh if you include merch than we are talking ridiculous money, the merch stands are already stocked with Star Wars stuff and we haven't gotten to November yet.

I stopped at a rest stop in Maryland, tons of star wars stuff on the shelves of the store.

This is no joke....I saw a Kylo Ren (whatver his name is) Friggin' blow up yard Christmas decoration at Walmart!!? Life size...Christmas....blow up Star Wars figure for your yard?

[gmillerdrake]

After reading through some of the info. provided in the thread and reading some good points.....now I'm not so sure? Being how heavily this is anticipated I just automatically figured this movie will blow the socks off the record....but....seeing how many return watchers it's going to need REALLY places an importance on the movie actually being GOOD. As was mentioned....AVATAR was 'unique' when it hit and it HAD to be seen at least twice....I watched it 3 times in the theater. It'll be a neat thing to keep an eye on.

One things for sure I think.....I think Disney gets back half of the $4 Billion they paid for the rights to Lucas....just from the movie. Merchandising included....they make their money back by the end of next year I'd think and all the rest from there on out is profit....

[Kotowboy]

^ Yup. Force Awakens plus merch easily makes at least half that and there's still 5 more movies plus merch to go. . . .

That $4bn they paid for Lucasfilm is looking like an absolute steal now.

Especially if they release remastered Original Theatrical Trilogy. 

If each movie makes $1bn then they've made a profit of $2bn. And that's not including merchandise or revenue from all of the trailers on various outlets on YouTube etc.

I had a quick look and all of the official SW TFA trailers on Youtube add up to over 150 million views. And that's JUST on the official Star Wars channel.


The original Force Awakens teaser on the "MovieClips" channel has 75 million views.

That's easily over 200m views across all of those. And that's just two channels. Think of every single news channel that has hosted it / played it / streamed it and all the advertising on all of

those videos.

[gmillerdrake]

No pressure to deliver JJ      I think it's getting (or always was?) to the point where it might be impossible for JJ to deliver what the fans 'expect' with this movie. If there were three levels of Star Wars fans....Not at All....Like It.....Love it OMG its STAR WARS.......I'd put myself in the 'like it' category and it'd take a hell of crap the bed experience for me not to like this one coming out. But, i think there are a lot of people out there who's expectations will never be met....and if they aren't, they ain't going back for second and third viewings.

If I had to guess I'd say I'll see this at least twice over the holidays. I have a couple groups of buddies who want to see it and I doubt we all go see it the same night so I can definitely see me paying to see this a couple times.

[Kotowboy]

I love that clip in the Plinkett reviews of those two guys who were first in line at TPM premiere being let in and bowing on the floor of the cinema. Fuckin Morons. For many reasons !

[Kotowboy]

No pressure to deliver JJ      I think it's getting (or always was?) to the point where it might be impossible for JJ to deliver what the fans 'expect' with this movie.

Oh, for sure. Even if it's the best Star Wars movie to date ( which won't be hard ) - some Star Wars fans will say it's the worst movie ever made by a human.

That's the trouble with the internet. Everything is either " OMFG ITS THE SHITTEST THING EVER MADE BY ANYONE EVER " or " OMFG BEST THING EVER "

There's no such thing as Grey Area.


I predict it will be the best JJ movie.

[Zantera]

It all comes down to how many people go see it multiple times, really. Even though SW has already broken a lot of pre-sale records, it won't mean a thing in the long run if people only see it that one time. That's why Avatar made such sweet bank, a lot of people saw it 3 or 4 times. I only saw it once myself, but I know several people who went several times, and when a lot of people go back, that results in a lot of money.

Star Wars does have a good chance, but it has to be great to get people to return and see it again. Personally I'm already planning on seeing it at least 2 times, maybe 3 if it's as great as we hope.

[Kotowboy]

I like to see films as many times as I can whilst they're in the cinema as you won't get that experience again. I saw Avatar, Prometheus, Star Trek and Star Trek Into Darkness multiple times.

[BlobVanDam]

I've never in my life seen a movie more than once at the cinema. If I liked it enough, I'll buy it when it gets a home release.

[cramx3]

I've never in my life seen a movie more than once at the cinema. If I liked it enough, I'll buy it when it gets a home release.

This is how I feel now as an older guy, as a kid I would see movies multiple times and go with different friends and whatnot.

Even if the movie is amazing, I doubt I see it more than once.  I only saw Avatar once, in IMAX 3D. 

[Chino]

I've never in my life seen a movie more than once at the cinema. If I liked it enough, I'll buy it when it gets a home release.

I haven't seen many more than once.

Avatar (10)
Titanic (4 including 100 year anniversary 3D release)
Transformers (3)
Live Free or Die Hard (2)
Hugo (2)
Borat (2)
Life of Pi (2)
The Interview (2)

It takes a lot to get me into a cinema today period, let alone get me to see the same thing more than once.

[bl5150]

I've never in my life seen a movie more than once at the cinema. If I liked it enough, I'll buy it when it gets a home release.

Ditto...........never knew repeat visits were so common until this thread.

[BlobVanDam]

I've never in my life seen a movie more than once at the cinema. If I liked it enough, I'll buy it when it gets a home release.

Ditto...........never knew repeat visits were so common until this thread.

Maybe it's to do with ticket prices in different countries?
It's around $20 to see a movie here, which is the same price of the average new movie DVD. So it's silly to me to watch a movie multiple times at the cinema and have nothing to show for it, when for the same price of a repeat viewing I can have the movie to own and watch any time I want. No movie is worth watching 10 times at the cinema.

[Zantera]

I rarely see a movie several times in the cinemas either, but it has happened on a few occasions that I've seen movies twice. For me: Inception, Kingsman: The Secret Service and Mad Max: Fury Road are movies that come to mind. Star Wars The Force Awakens will most definitely join the 2-club, but if it's as great as I hope, I might see it three times.

[Chino]

I've never in my life seen a movie more than once at the cinema. If I liked it enough, I'll buy it when it gets a home release.

Ditto...........never knew repeat visits were so common until this thread.

Maybe it's to do with ticket prices in different countries?
It's around $20 to see a movie here, which is the same price of the average new movie DVD. So it's silly to me to watch a movie multiple times at the cinema and have nothing to show for it, when for the same price of a repeat viewing I can have the movie to own and watch any time I want. No movie is worth watching 10 times at the cinema.

Okay. Maybe I got a little carried away with Avatar, but to be fair, four of those viewings were on dates (different girl each time). We'll call it 6 viewings. Most of the time I see a movie twice is because it's with two groups. For example, The Interview. I went and saw that with my best bud. My girlfriend wanted to see it too (at that time it wasn't on Netflix yet), so we both went the following weekend.

Also, you can get into a matinee showing for $5 in a lot of theaters around here. It's a cheap afternoon out.

[cramx3]

I've never in my life seen a movie more than once at the cinema. If I liked it enough, I'll buy it when it gets a home release.

Ditto...........never knew repeat visits were so common until this thread.

Maybe it's to do with ticket prices in different countries?
It's around $20 to see a movie here, which is the same price of the average new movie DVD. So it's silly to me to watch a movie multiple times at the cinema and have nothing to show for it, when for the same price of a repeat viewing I can have the movie to own and watch any time I want. No movie is worth watching 10 times at the cinema.

I would say ticket prices have something to do with it.  The prices in the US have gone up a lot, but I just saw The Martian on discount Tuesday by me and it was only 11 for two tickets, for me, that is the way to go in the future.  Screw weekend movie going, Tuesdays nights is the way to go!

[BlobVanDam]

Also, you can get into a matinee showing for $5 in a lot of theaters around here. It's a cheap afternoon out.

I checked the prices for my cinema, and it looks like the tickets for the cheaper times are $13. Seeing The Force Awakens on the bigger screen in 3D would set me back $27.50 a ticket. Screw that!

[Chino]

Also, you can get into a matinee showing for $5 in a lot of theaters around here. It's a cheap afternoon out.

I checked the prices for my cinema, and it looks like the tickets for the cheaper times are $13. Seeing The Force Awakens on the bigger screen in 3D would set me back $27.50 a ticket. Screw that!

Holy shit. The most expensive Avatar ticket I paid for was $14.50 for Imaxx 3D at night. That was in 2009 mind you. Still, $27.50 is absolutely absurd. That's for just one ticket?!

[BlobVanDam]

Also, you can get into a matinee showing for $5 in a lot of theaters around here. It's a cheap afternoon out.

I checked the prices for my cinema, and it looks like the tickets for the cheaper times are $13. Seeing The Force Awakens on the bigger screen in 3D would set me back $27.50 a ticket. Screw that!

Holy shit. The most expensive Avatar ticket I paid for was $14.50 for Imaxx 3D at night. That was in 2009 mind you. Still, $27.50 is absolutely absurd. That's for just one ticket?!

Just for one. The bigger screen costs a couple of bucks extra, as does 3D. They might also be including some "lol star wars fans will pay anything" tax on there for all I know.

[Bolsters]

I haven't been to the cinema to see a movie since 2008.

[Kotowboy]

When I lived in England - the local multiplex was at least £10 just for the ticket. Never mind 3D or the best seats or ridiculously over priced cinema snacks.


When I moved back to the small town in Wales - I went to see Jurassic World in our town's local cinema / arts centre and it cost me £12 for the ticket in a VIP seat , a bottle of coke, a tub of pringles and

two tubs of ice cream

For me, my dad and my brother to see SPECTRE on Monday was £18

[RuRoRul]

I saw the Lord of the Rings films 3 times each (I think I may have went to see Return of the King 4 times) and the first two Hobbit movies 2 or 3 times each as well. I can't remember if I went to see any other films 3 or more times (though I may have done), but having seen a film twice at the cinema is definitely not that unusual for me. If it was really good or if I am a big fan of the franchise then sometimes I'd want to see it again quickly rather than wait for it to come out on DVD / Blu-ray. And even for movies that are just OK, very often I might see a film twice just out of circumstance, e.g. going to see it with friends and then going to see it again with my family when they go, or vice versa.

On the subject of the box office record, here are the top few films for both Worldwide box office and Domestic (i.e. USA) box office, with their total gross (in millions) as well as how they compare to Avatar's gross in that market (so Avatar's gross is 100%, a film that makes half as much is 50%, etc.):

Worldwide
1. Avatar - $2,788m (100%)
2. Titanic - $2,186.8m (78.4%)
3. Jurassic World - $1,665.8 (59.7%)
4. Marvel's The Avengers - $1,519.6 (54.5%)
5. Furious 7 - $1,514.8 (54.3%)
6. Avengers: Age Of Ultron - $1,402.8 (50.3%)
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $1,341.5 (48.1%)

Domestic
1. Avatar - $760.5m (100%)
2. Titanic - $658.7m (86.6%)
3. Jurassic World - $651.8m (85.7%)
4. Marvel's The Avengers - $623.4m (82.0%)
5. The Dark Knight - $524.9m (69.2%)
6. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace - $474.5m (62.4%)
7. Star Wars (A New Hope) - $461.0m (60.1%)



The thing worth noting here imo is how much further ahead the James Cameron duo is in the worldwide box office compared to the USA. For example Jurassic World's domestic gross is over 85% of Avatar's domestic gross, and it almost overtook Titanic. Yet on the worldwide level, Jurassic World (which by no means did badly with global audiences) didn't even reach 60% of Avatar's total. So while other big films are regularly grossing quite close to Avatar in the USA, none are coming close worldwide.

Also worth mentioning that there are different films on those lists - a film being near the top of the overall chart in the USA doesn't necessarily mean it will make the same position worldwide. And notice a couple of films that appear on the US list but not worldwide? Star Wars. You have to go down to #20 on the overall worldwide box office chart to find Episode I, and the original Star Wars doesn't even crack the top 50, despite them being #6 and #7 on the domestic chart.

So seeing those numbers (Avatar not being quite as far ahead of the chasing pack in the domestic box office, and the Star Wars franchise historically doing much better in the US than globally), am I really the only person here that thinks Star Wars 7 might take #1 all time in the domestic box office but not make #1 all time worldwide? I mean, it could be that the market has changed enough and this is the Star Wars film the global box office is ready to really embrace making it #1 in both, or Star Wars could "fail" to pass Avatar's domestic haul and not be #1 in either, but to me it seems as though there is a pretty gaping space in the middle for Star Wars to become #1 domestic but #3 or #2 worldwide, and that might just be the sweet spot for it.

[Chino]

am I really the only person here that thinks Star Wars 7 might take #1 all time in the domestic box office but not make #1 all time worldwide?

No, I thought that as well. If Star Wars does beat Avatar, it will only be in the US. China seems to be pretty excited about this movie though. I saw the other day that they stood 500 storm troopers up on the Great Wall.

[orcus116]

I haven't seen the movie but how the hell did Jurassic World do so well? It just seems like an odd choice of movie to hold that placement in both charts.