Coronavirus

[King Postwhore]

What the hell am I walking into?

And how do I get in on it?

You just did. You're the middle of our Double Stuff.

[Dave_Manchester]

*decided to delete my post, it's not my place*

[eric42434224]

Dave, I think that was a very well thought out post that addresses a real concern for the mental health of a friend, and it was done in a positive and respectful way.  If you don't want to keep it in the general forum, I would hope you share it via PM with the people here (and other forums) that you know are his friends.

[jingle.boy]

Dave, I think that was a very well thought out post that addresses a real concern for the mental health of a friend, and it was done in a positive and respectful way.  If you don't want to keep it in the general forum, I would hope you share it via PM with the people here (and other forums) that you know are his friends.

Agreed.  I'm glad I was on this morning to see it.  Brings about some more context and perspective.

[King Postwhore]

It sure did Dave.  We all didn't want Mike to leave.  I just wish he would open up to us. 

[cramx3]

I don't understand how Biden can say by May 1st, vaccines will be available to anyone who wants them and then also say by July 4th we might be able to have small family gatherings.  If the vaccines are as advertised, it would mean by Memorial Day we should be fully open IMO. 

NJ announced on March 15th, indoor dining can go up to 50%.  <- this slow rollout of opening back up fully is what I can get behind.  Right now indoor venues for sports / entertainment are only at 10%, waiting to see that one go up.

[T-ski]

I don't understand how Biden can say by May 1st, vaccines will be available to anyone who wants them and then also say by July 4th we might be able to have small family gatherings.  If the vaccines are as advertised, it would mean by Memorial Day we should be fully open IMO. 

NJ announced on March 15th, indoor dining can go up to 50%.  <- this slow rollout of opening back up fully is what I can get behind.  Right now indoor venues for sports / entertainment are only at 10%, waiting to see that one go up.

Availability doesn’t equate to them going into peoples arms.

[hunnus2000]

I don't understand how Biden can say by May 1st, vaccines will be available to anyone who wants them and then also say by July 4th we might be able to have small family gatherings.  If the vaccines are as advertised, it would mean by Memorial Day we should be fully open IMO. 

NJ announced on March 15th, indoor dining can go up to 50%.  <- this slow rollout of opening back up fully is what I can get behind.  Right now indoor venues for sports / entertainment are only at 10%, waiting to see that one go up.

Availability doesn’t equate to them going into peoples arms.

Yep....

[lonestar]

Yeah there's rumblings of having people in the stands for the SF Giants home opener. Considering the supposed 'oppressive tactics' of Newsom that he's currently under a recall for, we're kind of on pace with the rest of the more reserved states.

[hunnus2000]

Yeah, the Rangers are going to be at 100% capacity for their home opener with the requirements that everyone is masked. (yeah right  ) but Jerry Jones wants full capacity for the Cowboys home opener which Sept. sounds more reasonable to me.

[Lonk]

Part of it is also the timeline from the point of getting the vaccine, until it is fully effective.

Moderna and Pfizer is about 6-8 weeks. I would assume J&J is more on the 3-4 week range. If vaccines are available to everyone by May 1st, but someone people can't get an appointment until June then yeah, July 4th sounds about right for those have are fully vaccinated.

[cramx3]

I don't understand how Biden can say by May 1st, vaccines will be available to anyone who wants them and then also say by July 4th we might be able to have small family gatherings.  If the vaccines are as advertised, it would mean by Memorial Day we should be fully open IMO. 

NJ announced on March 15th, indoor dining can go up to 50%.  <- this slow rollout of opening back up fully is what I can get behind.  Right now indoor venues for sports / entertainment are only at 10%, waiting to see that one go up.

Availability doesn’t equate to them going into peoples arms.

Yea that's true, but there's little reason to think anyone that wants one, will get one before the summer. We are also currently administering over 75% of the vaccines in supply daily, we seem to actually have the capacity to do more as more of the mass vaccination sites ramp up.  At over 30 million Americans fully vaccinated right now, we may actually be at herd immunity by May without everyone vaccinated.  Just seems saying July 4th we can have small gatherings is a scare tactic or just flat out wrong (many Americans are and have always been having small gatherings regardless).  We should be able to do much more by then if things stay the course.

[Adami]

Maybe he’s just not trying to promise something he can’t. Better to expect less and get more than to expect a lot and be let down.

[Cool Chris]

I thought it was every adult, not every person. Regardless, no one should be talking about any "return to normalcy" until every kid is in a classroom.

[lonestar]

Yeah, the Rangers are going to be at 100% capacity for their home opener with the requirements that everyone is masked. (yeah right  ) but Jerry Jones wants full capacity for the Cowboys home opener which Sept. sounds more reasonable to me.

If the vaccine rollout goes like it seems to be, then I'd be pretty good with full opening by September. This is also assuming a good deal of the people who for whatever reason don't want to get jabbed change there minds as well, which I feel will happen as more people get it with relatively no side effects

I thought it was every adult, not every person. Regardless, no one should be talking about any "return to normalcy" until every kid is in a classroom.

Id bet any amount of money that next school year will start full.

[hefdaddy42]

Wow, what a shitshow this thread turned into for a while there.

Over the actions of some stupid bitch.

*shrugs*

[lonestar]

 

[jingle.boy]

Wow, what a shitshow this thread turned into for a while there.

Over the actions of some stupid bitch.

*shrugs*

OMG, that's it.  Kiki is Janet1234!!

[cramx3]

I thought it was every adult, not every person. Regardless, no one should be talking about any "return to normalcy" until every kid is in a classroom.

Yea, my bad I think its adults.  And I expect kids in the classroom by the fall.  I read a lot of teachers will be mandatory to get the vaccine and they are next on line in NJ so no reason by the fall the teachers can't be back in the schools.  Kids aren't overall a real issue wtih the virus so they should be fine to go back with all the staff safe. 

Penn State says they expect full stadiums for fall football. 

Maybe he’s just not trying to promise something he can’t. Better to expect less and get more than to expect a lot and be let down.

Likely the case, but the science seems to suggest otherwise which is why I'm getting tired of hearing only the negative from leadership, there's a lot of positive and our goals should reflect that.  Not "small gatherings at home" still after all the vulnerable will be vaccinated and almost everyone else who wants one will be.   Just going to see more states act like Texas IMO if the downward trends continue on all key data points.

[hefdaddy42]

Wow, what a shitshow this thread turned into for a while there.

Over the actions of some stupid bitch.

*shrugs*

OMG, that's it.  Kiki is Janet1234!!

[Adami]

Maybe he’s just not trying to promise something he can’t. Better to expect less and get more than to expect a lot and be let down.

Likely the case, but the science seems to suggest otherwise which is why I'm getting tired of hearing only the negative from leadership, there's a lot of positive and our goals should reflect that.  Not "small gatherings at home" still after all the vulnerable will be vaccinated and almost everyone else who wants one will be.   Just going to see more states act like Texas IMO if the downward trends continue on all key data points.

I understand and agree that we're all feeling overwhelmed by the negativity and hopelessness and we could all use some real hope and inspiration.

That said, we need to remember that his reactions come after a year of "We're all going to be fine, no one should worry, next month it'll all go back to normal, no one is in any real danger." He's being cautious and very very conservative in estimations. While not super uplifting, I do think it's an appropriate measured way of addressing things.

If things get better quicker, cool. You know?

[King Postwhore]

Everybody I'd think has to be fatigued right now and is clamoring for some normalcy.   Fatigued from the constant anxiety.  I know I am. 

[cramx3]

Maybe he’s just not trying to promise something he can’t. Better to expect less and get more than to expect a lot and be let down.

Likely the case, but the science seems to suggest otherwise which is why I'm getting tired of hearing only the negative from leadership, there's a lot of positive and our goals should reflect that.  Not "small gatherings at home" still after all the vulnerable will be vaccinated and almost everyone else who wants one will be.   Just going to see more states act like Texas IMO if the downward trends continue on all key data points.

I understand and agree that we're all feeling overwhelmed by the negativity and hopelessness and we could all use some real hope and inspiration.

That said, we need to remember that his reactions come after a year of "We're all going to be fine, no one should worry, next month it'll all go back to normal, no one is in any real danger." He's being cautious and very very conservative in estimations. While not super uplifting, I do think it's an appropriate measured way of addressing things.

If things get better quicker, cool. You know?

Sure, but aren't we supposed to follow the science?  Wasn't that what people wanted after what we heard from our leaders last year?  The fatigue is definitely a large factor here and it's impacting me too. 

[kirksnosehair]

Biden followed the first rule of politics: Under promise and over deliver.  That's leadership 101

[cramx3]

Biden followed the first rule of politics: Under promise and over deliver.  That's leadership 101

Just like the million shots in a 100 days, was going to happen already. 

[jingle.boy]

Sure, but aren't we supposed to follow the science?  Wasn't that what people wanted after what we heard from our leaders last year?  The fatigue is definitely a large factor here and it's impacting me too.

Follow the science, yes; not get ahead of it.  In 3 months, the US is doing great at getting 10% fully vaccinated, and a shit-ton more with their first dose.  Having enough supply is all he committed to - which is better than what most nations on the planet can commit to (looking at you, Canada  ... we're so fucked up here).  Herd immunity doesn't happen until what ... certainly greater than 50% of the population is vaccinated.

Endorsement of widespread SAFE gatherings by July 4th would be fantastic, and should be considered a massive win.

Biden followed the first rule of politics: Under promise and over deliver.  That's leadership 101

Just like the million shots in a 100 days, was going to happen already. 

Wasnt it 100M?  Which at the time in January seemed pretty aggressive.

[lonestar]

Yet he's on pace to hit it in 60. 

[cramx3]

Sure, but aren't we supposed to follow the science?  Wasn't that what people wanted after what we heard from our leaders last year?  The fatigue is definitely a large factor here and it's impacting me too.

Follow the science, yes; not get ahead of it.  In 3 months, the US is doing great at getting 10% fully vaccinated, and a shit-ton more with their first dose.  Having enough supply is all he committed to - which is better than what most nations on the planet can commit to (looking at you, Canada  ... we're so fucked up here).  Herd immunity doesn't happen until what ... certainly greater than 50% of the population is vaccinated.

Endorsement of widespread SAFE gatherings by July 4th would be fantastic, and should be considered a massive win.

Biden followed the first rule of politics: Under promise and over deliver.  That's leadership 101

Just like the million shots in a 100 days, was going to happen already. 

Wasnt it 100M?  Which at the time in January seemed pretty aggressive.

I had edit that twice before posting and still got it wrong  yes, it was aggressive but the numbers suggested even back then it was going to likely happen.  We will surpass that and Biden will look good by saying it so I was pretty much agreeing with Kirk.

[kirksnosehair]

Biden followed the first rule of politics: Under promise and over deliver.  That's leadership 101

Just like the million shots in a 100 days, was going to happen already.

Precisely


You never promise anything that isn't already 100% guaranteed to happen. 

[kirksnosehair]

Sure, but aren't we supposed to follow the science?  Wasn't that what people wanted after what we heard from our leaders last year?  The fatigue is definitely a large factor here and it's impacting me too.

Follow the science, yes; not get ahead of it.  In 3 months, the US is doing great at getting 10% fully vaccinated, and a shit-ton more with their first dose.  Having enough supply is all he committed to - which is better than what most nations on the planet can commit to (looking at you, Canada  ... we're so fucked up here).  Herd immunity doesn't happen until what ... certainly greater than 50% of the population is vaccinated.

Endorsement of widespread SAFE gatherings by July 4th would be fantastic, and should be considered a massive win.

Biden followed the first rule of politics: Under promise and over deliver.  That's leadership 101

Just like the million shots in a 100 days, was going to happen already. 

Wasnt it 100M?  Which at the time in January seemed pretty aggressive.

I had edit that twice before posting and still got it wrong  yes, it was aggressive but the numbers suggested even back then it was going to likely happen.  We will surpass that and Biden will look good by saying it so I was pretty much agreeing with Kirk.

I knew what you meant 

[Stadler]

Sure, but aren't we supposed to follow the science?  Wasn't that what people wanted after what we heard from our leaders last year?  The fatigue is definitely a large factor here and it's impacting me too.

Follow the science, yes; not get ahead of it.  In 3 months, the US is doing great at getting 10% fully vaccinated, and a shit-ton more with their first dose.  Having enough supply is all he committed to - which is better than what most nations on the planet can commit to (looking at you, Canada  ... we're so fucked up here).  Herd immunity doesn't happen until what ... certainly greater than 50% of the population is vaccinated.

Endorsement of widespread SAFE gatherings by July 4th would be fantastic, and should be considered a massive win.

I'm pretty sure herd immunity with COVID is up in the 80% to 90% range.

But the science was about protecting our infrastructure; we're past that.  Now it's morphed, which I guess is fine, but there ought to be at least some acknowledgement of that shift, and some sympathy for those that don't support the shift.

[kirksnosehair]

From Johns Hopkins University Medical Center

Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 50% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with anyone, just posting what I saw on Herd Immunity.  I think I saw Dr. Fauci mention 75% immunity would be enough for Covid-19




Also, I just scheduled my vaccination for April 6th at 10am 

[cramx3]

Nice! and also I read similar to the 50-90%, but that % is combined of vaccination and prior infection.  I believe that is why we are likely closer to herd immunity than just looking at the 10% of the population fully vaccinated stat. I've been pretty much off on all my numbers today  (so take my numbers for granted) but if 30M infected, 30M vaccinated, and estimated about 4 times more have been infected but not documented, that puts the US around 50% already.  Of course there's a large amount of guess work there and probably significant overlap between infected and vaccinated, so I'd say we may be closer to 40% than 50% to be safe.  Still, that's a big dent in getting us close to where we need to be.  We should get there in a couple more months as a lot of experts have predicted.

[kirksnosehair]

My brother's wife is a nurse going on 30 years now.  She said herd immunity will make itself known almost immediately because there will be a sudden and precipitous decline in new cases that will rapidly accelerate to where within a month or so new cases will be down to a trickle.  I think there is some merit to the idea that we may be underestimating how many people already have antibodies because they were sick with covid.   I don't think we'll be there by July 4th though, that's just a little over 90 days away.  I think Labor Day is far more realistic.

[hunnus2000]

My brother's wife is a nurse going on 30 years now.  She said herd immunity will make itself known almost immediately because there will be a sudden and precipitous decline in new cases that will rapidly accelerate to where within a month or so new cases will be down to a trickle.  I think there is some merit to the idea that we may be underestimating how many people already have antibodies because they were sick with covid.   I don't think we'll be there by July 4th though, that's just a little over 90 days away.  I think Labor Day is far more realistic.

Well look at the BIG brain on your brother's wife! 

JK - that was a Pulp Fiction reference but I understand and agree that Labor Day seems more realistic.