At this point, I think it's like 40% Mangini, 40% Wildoer, 15% Priester, 5% Minnemann.
Eh, I would drop Priester down to 10% and the other 3 to 30% apiece.
My take:
45% mangini, 40% wildoer, 10% priester, 5% minnemann.
This says that there's a 50% chance that the "wow he's the best so far, OMG!" clip was editing magic and not really from the remaining auditioners. And, given that fact, that mangini has almost 10:1 odds (eddie trunk, minnemann's facebook, minnemann already being in a side project with them) of being the guy.
If that clip *was* from the remaining guys, and they did beat out mangini/minnemann, I think the 4:1 odds on Wildoer (probably better drummer than priester, played with JLB before and so chemistry is more known than with anyone else, etc) make sense.