Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 441064 times)

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Online DragonAttack

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #560 on: March 10, 2020, 07:05:26 PM »
Ivy League has cancelled their men's basketball tourney.  My good ol' Mid American Conference is restricting fans to theirs

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/28879490/mac-closes-tournaments-general-public-blue-jackets-home-games-continue-fans

Granted, these conferences don't have the huge attendance numbers as the the 'big boys', but it just all makes so much sense.  Here in metro Baltimore, our local universities are shutting down days before spring break, a couple of the seminar series that I've been attending have been cancelled for three weeks, and a couple of organizations I am treasurer for are skipping this month's meetings. 

We have two friends with husbands at a senior citizens' home.  Tomorrow is their last day to visit until ?   And....we had dinner with the two women and others on Sunday.  We were all doing fist bumps or waves or Vulcan greetings.  We also each had two elective surgeries in the past month, both of which we would have delayed if they were scheduled next month. 

At least all of our money will be refunded or credited regarding our cruise around Italy in May.  Our visit to Rome five years ago was so awe inspiring in spite of the 95 degree temps.  So odd to see The Vatican and Coliseum and streets deserted.  But they are doing the right thing. 
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 07:03:14 AM by DragonAttack »
...going along with Dragon Attack's Queen thread has been like taking a free class in Queen knowledge. Where else are you gonna find info like that?!

Online TAC

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #561 on: March 10, 2020, 07:15:00 PM »
  At least all of our money will be refunded or credited regarding our cruise around Italy in May.  Our visit to Rome five years ago was so awe inspiring in spite of the 95 degree temps.  So odd to see The Vatican and Coliseum and streets deserted.  But they are doing the right thing.

You're lucky. Alitala are being dicks.
would have thought the same thing but seeing the OP was TAC i immediately thought Maiden or DT related
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Offline Lonk

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #562 on: March 10, 2020, 07:39:58 PM »
I cancelled my trip to Baltimore for next week. I was supposed to go to a conference for work (NFMT) and don’t want to risk it. The Hotel doesn’t want to refund me :(
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Online TAC

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #563 on: March 10, 2020, 07:41:50 PM »
I cancelled my trip to Baltimore for next week. I was supposed to go to a conference for work (NFMT) and don’t want to risk it. The Hotel doesn’t want to refund me :(

You should see if your work will cover it. I mean, since it's for work, aren't they covering it anyway?
would have thought the same thing but seeing the OP was TAC i immediately thought Maiden or DT related
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Offline King Puppies and the Acid Guppies

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #564 on: March 10, 2020, 08:29:17 PM »
Fun story time!

So, my wife was making her monthly Costco run at our local Costco. Among the things she usually buys at Costco is toilet paper. Apparently people have been buying and hoarding toilet paper (of all things) because of the Coronavirus. So naturally Costco is completely out of it, as well as completely out of bottled water. An irate shopper was making a huge scene and demanding to know why Costco would allow themselves to run out of stock of essential items. The store manager had come over at this point and was trying to calm him down. He (the asshat shopper) doesn't like what she (the manager) is telling him, so he punches her in the face.... At this point the man is restrained. The manager decides to not press charges (for some reason), but she does revoke his Costco membership. Now he is demanding to know why his Costco membership was revoked.....Seriously? You attacked the store manager, you are lucky you aren't in jail facing assault charges.

On top of that, we will need toilet paper fairly soon, so I decided to check on Amazon and just order some. There is no toilet paper to be found that isn't being sold for outrageous prices.... nearly $40 for 6 rolls? No thanks. What is wrong with people?

The lesson in all this? People are dumb and panicky. These idiots are going to feel stupid in a few months with their 2000 rolls of toilet paper in their house.

Anyway, rant over.  :lol
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Offline Cool Chris

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #565 on: March 10, 2020, 08:55:07 PM »
Only later when he calms down, will he realize the gravest result of his actions... without his membership he will no longer be allowed to eat at their food court.
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Offline ProfessorPeart

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #566 on: March 10, 2020, 09:27:30 PM »
First confirmed case in the hospital where my desk is. Thankfully, I haven't actually been to my desk in over a year. Guess I should visit it, but not for a while now. This is inching ever closer to me.

How have you not been to your desk in over a year? Are you like that guy in the news a few years ago who everyone thought quit the company but was receiving paychecks for many years after he stopped showing up to work?  :lol

He's been working from home because he's in the medical field and knew to quarantine himself a year ago

The Oracle foretold the coming apocalypse.

I'm in IT and a few years ago my manager told me to start working from home 2 days a week because I had an hour commute. Then I moved my desk to the hospital closer to home and started going in twice a week. Eventually, I just stopped going in entirely. All of my leadership is in Streeterville in Chicago. They think anything West of the city is Iowa. Even funnier, the only reason I was going in a year ago is because I had elbow surgery and needed occupational therapy. I would go in, boot up my laptop, check email, go to therapy, go to lunch and eventually go back home. To go into the city is a 2 1/2 commute by public transit. Driving is sometimes quicker depending on when I leave. Thankfully, I only go downtown 2 to 4 times a year.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 09:55:29 PM by ProfessorPeart »
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Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #567 on: March 11, 2020, 02:05:37 AM »
Will be interesting to see if NYC becomes a ghost town.  I've had great commutes the last two days without traffic.  I'm going to a concert tonight here in NJ while someone has a virus down the street from me.  I don't know if I'm being a dick by continuing to live my life, but I really prefer that to panic and lockdown.  If I die, I'm going out on my own terms not locked up.  Having said that, I clearly am not too worried about my health and am feeling the best today than I have in a month.

Well, if you were in Italy right now, you would be a dick. By now it wouldn't matter anyway, since concerts are all cancelled and if they catch you outside without a valid justification, you get fined (and yes, it's already starting to happen right now).

Now, I take this post as an example, nothing personal against you just like I had nothing against Kattelox a couple of pages ago. I get it, I really do - things are not dire over there, you bought a ticket for a concert, you want to go to a concert. The contagion here started right after I've seen Dream Theater - *I* would have definitively went to see them. So being italian does not make me an authority on what people on the other side of the world should do, but it allows me to give a perspective on what happens when everybody, at the same time, adopt the "I won't stop living" mentality.

Again, nothing personal against you - go to a concert just like I would have went to a concert when they weren't stopped yet. You're not gonna die anyway. The grandma of someone you infect (in the, right now, unlikely event that the guy in your street infected you by first or second hand) will. Or hey, someone else at the concert will infect you. Or maybe you are not infected, you never will be (fingers crossed for you and everyone else here!), but someone at the concert will be infected by someone else, and then spread it to someone else, who will spread it to someone else, and that someone else will infect an old or frail relative which will need intensive care. The possibilites are endless when everyone go around everywhere at the same time.
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Offline JLa

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #568 on: March 11, 2020, 05:55:30 AM »
There's a sense of panic state in Norwegian media. Number of confirmed cases went from ~250 to ~400 in a single day, and doctors are quoted on saying we are losing track of who's been infected / where they caught it. I think 7 have been admitted to hospital atm.

Official guidelines say you are supposed to call your doctor or the ER if you have symptoms (not 911), or a newly established information number if you need info, but phone lines are completely overwhelmed for all three. People are calling 911 to ask questions, just because they can't get through anywhere else.

Granted, small numbers still, but this thing is growing fast and we're not very prepared.

I'm nervous.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 06:01:05 AM by JLa »

Offline Luoto

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #569 on: March 11, 2020, 08:17:01 AM »
There's a sense of panic state in Norwegian media. Number of confirmed cases went from ~250 to ~400 in a single day, and doctors are quoted on saying we are losing track of who's been infected / where they caught it. I think 7 have been admitted to hospital atm.

Exponential spread. Just like here in Finland, we're just a week or so behind you in the amount of confirmed cases. Right now we're at 59 and all transmission patterns are still known, but because it follows the exponential line almost to a T I'm expecting 180-200 confirmed cases by the end of the week.

My dad is supposed to travel to Helsinki tomorrow which is in the most affected region, but he just caught an apparent head cold with slight fever.
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Offline JLa

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #570 on: March 11, 2020, 08:47:39 AM »
There's a sense of panic state in Norwegian media. Number of confirmed cases went from ~250 to ~400 in a single day, and doctors are quoted on saying we are losing track of who's been infected / where they caught it. I think 7 have been admitted to hospital atm.

Exponential spread. Just like here in Finland, we're just a week or so behind you in the amount of confirmed cases. Right now we're at 59 and all transmission patterns are still known, but because it follows the exponential line almost to a T I'm expecting 180-200 confirmed cases by the end of the week.

My dad is supposed to travel to Helsinki tomorrow which is in the most affected region, but he just caught an apparent head cold with slight fever.
Yeah. I noticed someone was playing around with math and found that we could have 20 000 cases in 10 days. Unless we come up with something.

Authorities are slowly starting to react now, urging people to work from home, avoid public transportation and social events etc. But I fear it's too little, too late.

Trying to stay calm and not scare my 4 year old. But man, it's hard when you sort of know what's coming.

Offline Northern Lion

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #571 on: March 11, 2020, 08:55:13 AM »
There's a sense of panic state in Norwegian media. Number of confirmed cases went from ~250 to ~400 in a single day, and doctors are quoted on saying we are losing track of who's been infected / where they caught it. I think 7 have been admitted to hospital atm.

Exponential spread. Just like here in Finland, we're just a week or so behind you in the amount of confirmed cases. Right now we're at 59 and all transmission patterns are still known, but because it follows the exponential line almost to a T I'm expecting 180-200 confirmed cases by the end of the week.

My dad is supposed to travel to Helsinki tomorrow which is in the most affected region, but he just caught an apparent head cold with slight fever.
Yeah. I noticed someone was playing around with math and found that we could have 20 000 cases in 10 days. Unless we come up with something.

Authorities are slowly starting to react now, urging people to work from home, avoid public transportation and social events etc. But I fear it's too little, too late.

Trying to stay calm and not scare my 4 year old. But man, it's hard when you sort of know what's coming.

Luckily, based on what we know about the data so far, your 4 year old should be fine.  And, I think you're right, world wide, we will probably have 100's of 1000's of cases in the next month or two.
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Offline Tick

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #572 on: March 11, 2020, 09:03:21 AM »
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Offline Luoto

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #573 on: March 11, 2020, 09:14:13 AM »
Yeah. I noticed someone was playing around with math and found that we could have 20 000 cases in 10 days. Unless we come up with something.

Italy is a much bigger country and it's passed 10 000 confirmed cases, so Norway will not accumulate at that pace. Because of your much smaller population the exponent will stagnate quicker.
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Offline JLa

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #574 on: March 11, 2020, 09:17:25 AM »
Yeah. I noticed someone was playing around with math and found that we could have 20 000 cases in 10 days. Unless we come up with something.

Italy is a much bigger country and it's passed 10 000 confirmed cases, so Norway will not accumulate at that pace. Because of your much smaller population the exponent will stagnate quicker.
Just hoping you are right. Currently we are on track with the Italians, although we are a few weeks behind. The curves are nearly identical.

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #575 on: March 11, 2020, 09:18:29 AM »
Yeah. I noticed someone was playing around with math and found that we could have 20 000 cases in 10 days. Unless we come up with something.

Italy is a much bigger country and it's passed 10 000 confirmed cases, so Norway will not accumulate at that pace. Because of your much smaller population the exponent will stagnate quicker.

Indeed, also Norway's population is not concentrated but spread over fjords and mountains, the impact will not be that hard.

More reason, with the help from the nation's geography, to make of March the "stay at home month" and not go out unless for emergencies, work and grocery shopping.
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Offline bosk1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #576 on: March 11, 2020, 09:34:29 AM »
On top of that, we will need toilet paper fairly soon, so I decided to check on Amazon and just order some. There is no toilet paper to be found that isn't being sold for outrageous prices.... nearly $40 for 6 rolls? No thanks. What is wrong with people?

The lesson in all this? People are dumb and panicky. These idiots are going to feel stupid in a few months with their 2000 rolls of toilet paper in their house.

No kidding.  I kind of like that toilet paper has become the "front-page story" because it really exemplifies the absurdity of it all.  But it certainly isn't limited to that.  Here's a more practical example:  Being married to a Chinese immigrant, rice is a staple in our household.  And unlike a typical "American" household that just picks up a 5 or 10 pound bag at the usual supermarket, eating it a few times a week means that we usually buy the 50 pound bags at the Asian markets.  Well, guess what is sold out?  Yeah.  A staple diet item that is usually stacked on pallets is sold out everywhere.  She called one market yesterday, and they said they are expecting a shipment shortly--and are changing 10 times the normal cost due to scarcity.  Now, if there were a real, actual scarcity of the product, the price gauging would still be pretty disgusting, but it at least would be understandable.  But this is a scarcity that is manufactured solely by irrational behavior. 

Here's another example of the type of behavior that is also problematic for different reasons:  A friend of the family that my wife went to school with, who is also a Chinese immigrant, travels frequently to the Bay Area to take care of her elderly parents.  As she was taking them to a routine doctor's appointment a couple of weeks ago, they were stopped by protesters outside the doctor's office, shouted at, and threatened--just because they are Chinese and "brought this dread disease to our shores!" 

Way to go, people!

A lot of what some people are annoyed with right now are simply matters of convenience.  I get that.  But people behaving stupidly is creating some serious, legitimate problems for many societies that goes far beyond any complications this mild cold virus could cause.  And THAT is legitimately hurting people.  When people create scarcities, threaten others out of fear/prejudice, and overwhelm out medical systems so that those who actually NEED care cannot get it, those are huge problems that are attributable almost solely to behavior.

Speaking of my health, it's also false spring her and the graded and stuff are starting to sprout pushing my allergies into overdrive. Now every night I'm a running snit rag in bed hacking away, and with each cough I'm all "shit is that one coronavirus?"  :lol

Yeah, allergy season is a problem right now.  It doesn't have me worried about coronavirus.  But it does have the effect of making people who are already skittish look at each other with suspicion every time somebody sniffles or coughs.  Again, dumb and irrational, but it is real.

Will be interesting to see if NYC becomes a ghost town.  I've had great commutes the last two days without traffic.  I'm going to a concert tonight here in NJ while someone has a virus down the street from me.  I don't know if I'm being a dick by continuing to live my life, but I really prefer that to panic and lockdown.  If I die, I'm going out on my own terms not locked up.  Having said that, I clearly am not too worried about my health and am feeling the best today than I have in a month.

If you are behaving like a normal human being and taking the necessary precautions to not spread it, I don't see how it is "being a dick" at all.  People who are susceptible due to age, other illness or medical condition, or compromised immune systems will likely not be at the types of events you are talking about and should be staying away from mass gatherings of any type.  And even if, hypothetically, you are carrying and do not know it, you are unlikely to spread it if you are taking the proper precautions (washing hands thoroughly and frequently, covering a cough or sneeze properly, not touching things/others, etc.).
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Offline Grappler

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #577 on: March 11, 2020, 09:46:17 AM »
My kids brought home a nasty cold from their preschool.  My family just can't shake it - it's been 2 or 3 weeks and we're all still dealing with it.  I was on my train to work yesterday morning and a gentleman who was kind of nervous to begin with sat down in front of me.  At the same time, I coughed...just a normal, recovering from a head/chest cold cough.  He looked back at me and quickly got up and moved to a different seat, if not into a different car.   :lol  One slight cough and the guy freaked out.  I need to remember that when people are crowding my personal space.  Just cough and they'll quickly move out of my way. 

Chicago has a handful of cases, but with millions of people in the metro area and only 19 or so confirmed people with this virus, it's not like everyone around us is contagious with it. 

The panic buying is stupid.  Life is going to go on.  In a perfect world, we'd all stay home for two weeks, but the world isn't perfect.  My boss (and company) isn't going to tell people to work from home.  Some people don't have that option at all.  We still have to work, we still have to shop.  Maybe non-essential public gatherings aren't a smart idea (the city cancelled it's legendary St. Patrick's Day Parade), but the notion that life needs to completely cease for two weeks for everyone isn't going to happen.

Offline jingle.boy

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #578 on: March 11, 2020, 09:58:44 AM »
I don't see how stocking up for the possibility or eventuality of being in a quarantine for 2 weeks is stupid.  A lot of people are (imo, rightly) afraid of the spread, and tell me right now Bosk - if you couldn't go out for 2 weeks for any reason, do you have enough food in the house?  Even if you can, if the spread keeps at the current pace, if/when 10s or 100s of thousands involved in the supply chain of the food industry are sick and/or quarantined, how does that affect what's on the shelves?  Grocery store employees, delivery drivers, food terminal workers, distribution hubs... everything from start to finish.  If the contamination does continue to spread unabated, as Marc's video showed, the math of it all suggests it could be 100M people in less than 3 months.  Here's additional perspective

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

"We can expect a doubling of cases every six days, according to several epidemiological studies."
"That means we are looking at about 1 million U.S. cases by the end of April; 2 million by May 7; 4 million by May 13; and so on."
"In the absence of extreme interventions like those implemented in China, this trend likely won’t slow significantly until hitting at least 1% of the population, or about 3.3 million Americans."
"among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU."
"Unwarranted panic does no one any good, but neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s inappropriate to assuage the public with misleading comparisons to the seasonal flu or by assuring people that there’s “only” a 2% fatality rate."

Yes, it's panic, but it's not irrational or absurd.  And it becomes self sustaining.

The bigotry and discrimination is a totally separate issue, and completely uncalled for.
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Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #579 on: March 11, 2020, 10:09:09 AM »
The fatality rate is also tricky for the overall perception. Yes, luckily people are not dropping dead like flies. But it's not either dying or being perfectly healthy - a lot of people who don't and won't die, will need to be hospitalized in intensive care. At the same time. If too many people not-die at the same time, and they need all the hospital resources at the same time, you show up with a broken leg (flashnews: the virus doesn't stop other ilnesses or incidents, and all the other stuff for which people need medical carae) and you remain out of the hospital, because nobody can fix your leg when they're stuck with rooms full of intensive care patients.

What happens when there's a sporting event or a concert downtown? sport fans or concert goers ALL board the public transport to go there. And they pile up on top of people that work there and need the transports every day to go back home. So you have the people who already need the subway for normal, day-to-day reasons, and another whole mass of people who board it at the same time. Apply that to the hospitals and imagine how it would be.
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Offline bosk1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #580 on: March 11, 2020, 10:14:58 AM »
I don't see how stocking up for the possibility or eventuality of being in a quarantine for 2 weeks is stupid.  A lot of people are (imo, rightly) afraid of the spread, and tell me right now Bosk - if you couldn't go out for 2 weeks for any reason, do you have enough food in the house?  Even if you can, if the spread keeps at the current pace, if/when 10s or 100s of thousands involved in the supply chain of the food industry are sick and/or quarantined, how does that affect what's on the shelves?  Grocery store employees, delivery drivers, food terminal workers, distribution hubs... everything from start to finish.  If the contamination does continue to spread unabated, as Marc's video showed, the math of it all suggests it could be 100M people in less than 3 months.  Here's additional perspective

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

"We can expect a doubling of cases every six days, according to several epidemiological studies."
"That means we are looking at about 1 million U.S. cases by the end of April; 2 million by May 7; 4 million by May 13; and so on."
"In the absence of extreme interventions like those implemented in China, this trend likely won’t slow significantly until hitting at least 1% of the population, or about 3.3 million Americans."
"among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU."
"Unwarranted panic does no one any good, but neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s inappropriate to assuage the public with misleading comparisons to the seasonal flu or by assuring people that there’s “only” a 2% fatality rate."

Yes, it's panic, but it's not irrational or absurd.  And it becomes self sustaining.

The bigotry and discrimination is a totally separate issue, and completely uncalled for.
Responding to the bold:  Good, because I don't think anybody is advocating ill-informed complacency.  I cannot speak for anyone else, but as far as my post, I am simply reacting to the ill-informed stupidity leading to ill-informed overreaction, which creates and is actively creating more problems than the virus.  In some cases, far more grave problems.

...and tell me right now Bosk - if you couldn't go out for 2 weeks for any reason, do you have enough food in the house? 
Most likely, yes.  And I say "most likely" instead of "more assuredly" simply because we have teenagers living in our house, and they could probably go through a 2-week supply in one sitting if we let them.
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Offline Evermind

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #581 on: March 11, 2020, 10:15:45 AM »
Speaking of my health, it's also false spring her and the graded and stuff are starting to sprout pushing my allergies into overdrive. Now every night I'm a running snit rag in bed hacking away, and with each cough I'm all "shit is that one coronavirus?"  :lol

Yeah, allergy season is a problem right now.  It doesn't have me worried about coronavirus.  But it does have the effect of making people who are already skittish look at each other with suspicion every time somebody sniffles or coughs.  Again, dumb and irrational, but it is real.

My kids brought home a nasty cold from their preschool.  My family just can't shake it - it's been 2 or 3 weeks and we're all still dealing with it.  I was on my train to work yesterday morning and a gentleman who was kind of nervous to begin with sat down in front of me.  At the same time, I coughed...just a normal, recovering from a head/chest cold cough.  He looked back at me and quickly got up and moved to a different seat, if not into a different car.   :lol  One slight cough and the guy freaked out.  I need to remember that when people are crowding my personal space.  Just cough and they'll quickly move out of my way. 

My mother has asthma and man, does she feel it right now. She was just telling me today how people are quick to hurry away from her on the train whenever she has to cough. :lol
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Offline Indiscipline

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #582 on: March 11, 2020, 10:21:50 AM »
Blind stockpiling, although understandable, is pretty silly. Plus, assaulting supermarkets forming tight ques is a wonderful way to spread infections.

I feel I can provide a realistic lockdown scenario in order to defuse some panic because, you know, I'm focking living it right now. Products are circulating, stores are being refilled, a lot of extra (and free) home delivery service is being implemented. I can currently go shop (we are being let in two by two LA ramp style and we must keep a safety distance at the cashier) inside my residency zone. I can even exit the latter, provided it's a matter of urgency (work/health/subsistence) with a self signed document of good faith and truth in my pocket.

Again, please don't get me wrong, this is testimony. The best way to fight unealthy fear (the healthy one described by jingle is quite alright) is studying the facts, and I wish some Wuhan friend had told me some first-hand facts a month ago.

I can't help you with the toilet paper thing. We have bidets as plan B.

Offline Harmony

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #583 on: March 11, 2020, 10:21:58 AM »
rice is a staple in our household.  And unlike a typical "American" household that just picks up a 5 or 10 pound bag at the usual supermarket, eating it a few times a week means that we usually buy the 50 pound bags at the Asian markets.  Well, guess what is sold out?  Yeah.  A staple diet item that is usually stacked on pallets is sold out everywhere.  She called one market yesterday, and they said they are expecting a shipment shortly--and are changing 10 times the normal cost due to scarcity.  Now, if there were a real, actual scarcity of the product, the price gauging would still be pretty disgusting, but it at least would be understandable.  But this is a scarcity that is manufactured solely by irrational behavior. 

This is interesting to me.  Last weekend I went to one of our local Asian markets because we were out of jasmine rice and a few other things.  I noticed the rice was nearly gone and wondered if it was because of local panic or because it is imported from China and new shipments have been delayed.  I did not pay attention to the price but it didn't seem to be much higher than normal.

As for the fear of being around someone coughing - I briefly thought I was going to be pulled over for speeding the other day.  Thankfully I wasn't but I had a split second of wondering what would happen if when the cop asked me for my ID I started to have a coughing fit.   :lol
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Offline Dublagent66

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #584 on: March 11, 2020, 10:29:01 AM »
Mortality percentage at this point is meaningless.  The math is staggering because we are only a month into this.  There isn't enough data and not enough time has passed to accurately calculate mortality rate.  Thousands of people have already recovered.  That is a positive counter factor as time progresses.  We will begin to see that there will be far more recoveries than deaths.  That drives the mortality percentage down over time.  People are in a premature panic for no reason and as Bosk said, it's causing more problems than people just being worried about sickness.  People are lashing out emotionally without the benefit of intellect.  That is the true tragedy of this.
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Offline Stadler

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #585 on: March 11, 2020, 10:36:51 AM »
Mortality percentage at this point is meaningless.  The math is staggering because we are only a month into this.  There isn't enough data and not enough time has passed to accurately calculate mortality rate.  Thousands of people have already recovered.  That is a positive counter factor as time progresses.  We will begin to see that there will be far more recoveries than deaths.  That drives the mortality percentage down over time.  People are in a premature panic for no reason and as Bosk said, it's causing more problems than people just being worried about sickness.  People are lashing out emotionally without the benefit of intellect.  That is the true tragedy of this.

More people will heal, but also, more people that have mild cases will be identified as having it.  That's a part of the math too, that initially, the cases we know are the most severe. 

Offline The Walrus

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #586 on: March 11, 2020, 10:40:36 AM »
Here's a more practical example:  Being married to a Chinese immigrant, rice is a staple in our household.  And unlike a typical "American" household that just picks up a 5 or 10 pound bag at the usual supermarket, eating it a few times a week means that we usually buy the 50 pound bags at the Asian markets.  Well, guess what is sold out?  Yeah.  A staple diet item that is usually stacked on pallets is sold out everywhere.  She called one market yesterday, and they said they are expecting a shipment shortly--and are changing 10 times the normal cost due to scarcity.  Now, if there were a real, actual scarcity of the product, the price gauging would still be pretty disgusting, but it at least would be understandable.  But this is a scarcity that is manufactured solely by irrational behavior. 

I understand this is like the smallest issue to inquire about with respect to your overall post, but out of curiosity, did you go and just pick up a few 5 or 10 pound bags to make up the difference? (For me, living alone, eating rice several times a week, a single 10 pound bag of jasmine rice lasts me weeks on end.)
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Offline bosk1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #587 on: March 11, 2020, 10:41:56 AM »
rice is a staple in our household.  And unlike a typical "American" household that just picks up a 5 or 10 pound bag at the usual supermarket, eating it a few times a week means that we usually buy the 50 pound bags at the Asian markets.  Well, guess what is sold out?  Yeah.  A staple diet item that is usually stacked on pallets is sold out everywhere.  She called one market yesterday, and they said they are expecting a shipment shortly--and are changing 10 times the normal cost due to scarcity.  Now, if there were a real, actual scarcity of the product, the price gauging would still be pretty disgusting, but it at least would be understandable.  But this is a scarcity that is manufactured solely by irrational behavior. 

This is interesting to me.  Last weekend I went to one of our local Asian markets because we were out of jasmine rice and a few other things.  I noticed the rice was nearly gone and wondered if it was because of local panic or because it is imported from China and new shipments have been delayed.  I did not pay attention to the price but it didn't seem to be much higher than normal.

Yeah, I thought about the source issue myself.  I suspect it is a bit of both, but don't know.  But on the supply chain issue, keep in mind that a lot of the rice that is sold and consumed in this country is not even from abroad, even if it has Chinese or Japanese characters on the packaging.  Most of our rice in this country comes from California and the Gulf states (I saw a stat suggesting that less than 10% of our rice is imported).

People are lashing out emotionally without the benefit of intellect.  That is the true tragedy of this.

For sure.  And especially when, as mentioned above, it creates far more dire problems than those posted by the virus.
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Offline Stadler

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #588 on: March 11, 2020, 10:42:43 AM »
We - Connecticut - just passed an emergency bill making it a crime to boost prices beyond normal market fluctuations on any essential good.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #589 on: March 11, 2020, 10:44:10 AM »
We - Connecticut - just passed an emergency bill making it a crime to boost prices beyond normal market fluctuations on any essential good.

WHY?!?!?

Let the market work itself out god dammit!
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #590 on: March 11, 2020, 10:48:14 AM »
@ Bosk... I never meant to suggest anyone here was advocating ill-informed complacency. 

@ Alex... thanks for that real-time testimonial.  I still might do a larger-than-usual grocery run this weekend.  Better safe than sorry.
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Offline cramx3

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #591 on: March 11, 2020, 10:52:20 AM »
If anything I will do a bit more than a normal grocery run, I havent gone grocery shopping in two weeks now so I am not sure I could survive another two weeks.  Maybe eating a bare minimum of really basic food would work but that would be pretty miserable.  Also, stock up on booze.  Would definitely need that if I can't leave the house.  Having said that, I really just don't see a home confinement coming unless I actually start getting sick. 

Offline Evermind

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #592 on: March 11, 2020, 10:59:05 AM »
If anything I will do a bit more than a normal grocery run, I havent gone grocery shopping in two weeks now so I am not sure I could survive another two weeks.  Maybe eating a bare minimum of really basic food would work but that would be pretty miserable.  Also, stock up on booze.  Would definitely need that if I can't leave the house.  Having said that, I really just don't see a home confinement coming unless I actually start getting sick.

I've bought two boxes of canned beef (I think it's like 500g cans with 24 of them in each box) last autumn and I think I'm through maybe five or six cans. :lol I can probably survive for more than a month. They also last for like ten years.

What can I say, they were fairly cheap.

That being said, no big stockpiling is happening in Moscow right now. The toilet paper is in stock everywhere and all.
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Offline cramx3

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #593 on: March 11, 2020, 11:02:24 AM »
Canned beef?  oof hard pass  :lol well, in my mind, this is not like a hurricane warning where the power will go out.  I don't see the need to stock pile canned goods.  I can freeze my excess chicken I buy.  I don't see the need to buy bottled water, I have a sink and a brita filter... the TP does actually make some sense.  Luckily I stocked up before this broke out and I haven't even started using that stock pile. 

Offline T-ski

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #594 on: March 11, 2020, 11:09:03 AM »
a U.S. shutdown is imminent....


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