The Astonishing Billboard Chart Prediction (merged)

[dvargas]

Time to review DT's chances of making a splash with a new release this time around. From my perspective and with what appears to be quite limited publicity I'd say somewhere between 10 and 20. DT's releases are front-loaded and drop fast.

Tough time to release a record (from a billboard perspective), it will be facing Adele, Bieber, 21 pilots, One direction ... none of which will drop significantly during the next weeks. Also, Bowie debuted on first this week and Sia's new album comes out on the 29th as well.

I know that for a lot of people here (me included) Billboard means nothing, but for a band and marketing prospects, etc. it does matter to some degree.

Anyways... thoughts?

[Shadow2222]

I think it will easily be the highest charting DT release. Don't forget that this will officially be a double album, which means that, as far as I understand, one album sale actually counts for two.

[dvargas]

I think it will easily be the highest charting DT release. Don't forget that this will officially be a double album, which means that, as far as I understand, one album sale actually counts for two.

Thanks for pointing this out! Should get in the top 10.

[ResultsMayVary]

I think it will easily be the highest charting DT release. Don't forget that this will officially be a double album, which means that, as far as I understand, one album sale actually counts for two.

Source?

I thought that only applied to a certain era of albums decades ago.

[thosava]

I have said this before in another thread, and i'll say it again here. Double albums do not count twice on Billboard. Double albums count twice for RIAA certifications, but not on the charts.
Source:

Hi Fred,

I was curious if Shania Twain's latest CD, "Up!", counts as two albums or just one on The Billboard 200? I'm fairly sure that Billboard's policy on double CDs is that they count as two units sold for each album sold. For example, Garth Brooks' "Double Live" album sold a million copies in its first week because it was double album. This might be different though because both CDs contain the same songs. Is there a policy on this?

Thank you so much Fred for reading all of our E-mails. I know we all appreciate the hard work you do for us.

Nick Oswald

Dear Nick,

Thanks. It's a pleasure!

Shania Twain's album counts as one album when it comes to the Billboard charts. In the print issue dated Dec. 14, director of charts Geoff Mayfield reports that the album has sold 1.5 million copies in its first two weeks, according to Nielsen SoundScan. That means that 1.5 million copies have been sold, not 750,000.

A lot of readers asked this question this week. I think the confusion is because of the policy of the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), which is the trade organization that awards gold and platinum certifications. A double album does count twice for them, so 1.5 million copies sold would be triple platinum -- but keep in mind the RIAA issues certifications based on units shipped, not units sold. That means Shania Twain's platinum figure is already higher than triple-platinum (and going "up").
https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/73213/chart-beat-chat

[BlobVanDam]

Thanks for the clarification. I wondered about this back when it was first confirmed it was a double album, and asked about it, but figured it counted double for Billboard too.
I expect it will hit the Billboard top 10 for its first week regardless. I have no idea what it's competing against this time though, which may affect where it lands.

[hefdaddy42]

I think it will hit (or land just outside) the Top 10.

[thosava]

DT12 reached number 4 i Norway (the second highest since systematic chaos at number 3). I don't expect them to reach number one, but i'm hoping for number 5 or higher!

[emtee]

Same ol' sweet as always. Between 32K and 48K in the US first week is my prediction.

[Shadow2222]

*Explanation of how double-albums are counted*

Ah, that's too bad. Thanks for the information!

[Kotowboy]

I'm gonna say #6 on the Billboard.

[thosava]

Ah, that's too bad. Thanks for the information!

Yeah, i was disappointed too! I was hoping for a real shot at number one 

[dvargas]

Same ol' sweet as always. Between 32K and 48K in the US first week is my prediction.

I agree with this.

Thanks for the clarification. I wondered about this back when it was first confirmed it was a double album, and asked about it, but figured it counted double for Billboard too.
I expect it will hit the Billboard top 10 for its first week regardless. I have no idea what it's competing against this time though, which may affect where it lands.

Hopefully it will hit the top 10, but it may land just outside this position. As I mentioned on my first post -- tough, tough competition.

[ResultsMayVary]

I think we'll see if it in the top 5 to top 10 range. I'm not sure what the album is up against in the week before, during, and after release, but I don't think it has much competition with the metal or prog sound with the exception of Megadeth.

While the new album may sell a certain amount of copies, the billboard chart for the first week could vary based on what other albums were released in the same time frame.

[DarkLord_Lalinc]

I think the pattern will repeat itself.

It will have a big first-week entry, and then fall considerably. DT's fanbase won't get much bigger or smaller with this release, so there's no point in thinking their sales numbers will be any different this time around.

[ResultsMayVary]

I think the pattern will repeat itself.

It will have a big first-week entry, and then fall considerably. DT's fanbase won't get much bigger or smaller with this release, so there's no point in thinking their sales numbers will be any different this time around.

Agreed. I'd say expect sales in the low 30,000 for US first week, as has been the case for the past several records. I'm not familiar with the rest of the world's first week sales, though.

[bosk1]

I would have thought it would be mid top 10, near what the last couple of been.  But with the other big-named released around the same time, I think lower top 10, or possibly just outside the top 10 (11 or 12) is probably right. 

Ah, that's too bad. Thanks for the information!

Yeah, i was disappointed too! I was hoping for a real shot at number one 

I don't think a #1 is ever a real strong possibility for them.  The differences between the top 5 are often exponential (although it obviously depends on who has new albums in a given week).  If you look at who is in the top 3 and how many albums the top 3 usually sell, I don't see DT getting to that level, unfortunately.

[dvargas]

I think we'll see if it in the top 5 to top 10 range. I'm not sure what the album is up against in the week before, during, and after release, but I don't think it has much competition with the metal or prog sound with the exception of Megadeth.

While the new album may sell a certain amount of copies, the billboard chart for the first week could vary based on what other albums were released in the same time frame.

The problem is not what is released the same week (except for Sia's), but the ones that won't come down easily (Adele, Bieber, Bowie, One Direction, 21 pilots).  Adele's record was on the top spot for 7 weeks. 21 pilot's album has been on the chart for over 15 weeks. So on...

Adele's 25 sold over 150,000 copies during its seventh week.

Finally, of note is the fact that currently the billboard chart position is a mix of physical and digital sales, and also of streaming.

[thosava]

I would guess a much higher percentage of DT fans actually buy their cd's and don't stream the album, compared to pop artists. So when a pop artist is selling a lot of cd's one can be certain that number of streams is a lot higher.

[DT_12_Octavarium]

I'm personally buying 20 copies on release day. Just doing my part to get DT to #1 

[SystematicThought]

I wonder if Eagles album sales are going to go up. Probably no enough to crack the Top 10, but I think the new album will be near 10 or just outside of.

[Mladen]

I'm predicting number seven, but I'm rooting for a higher spot.

[Kotowboy]

I'm personally buying 20 copies on release day. Just doing my part to get DT to #1 

But it's a double album so only 10 of those will count !

[bosk1]

Can you please knock off the constant spam posts?  It is getting way past excessive.

[cramx3]

I expect around #10 which has been the case recently.  Depending on what else comes out that week, maybe it gets closer to 5, but could also be closer to #15.  I'll just leave my official guess at 10.

[TL]

First week US sales: 37,000

Billboard 200 (US): #7
Canada: #6

[ytserush]

28,000 in the US. Who knows what chart position that equates?

[Kotowboy]

This comes up in the main menu as "The Astonishing Bill".

[Darkstarshades]

Let's hope Rasmey doesn't score again so that DT has a chance at top 5

[KevShmev]

Top 10 again?  It's a safe bet.

When I bought it at Best Buy at lunch on Friday, it was the last copy remaining and the cashier did a double take at it when scanning it and said, "What is this? Seems like everybody has been buying it all morning." No clue how many copies they had, but I got the last one.  My brother said he got the first one at a different Best Buy shortly after they opened and that they had 10 copies total.  I am assuming the Best Buy I went to also had just 10.  I bought mine just before 1 p.m., so hey, 10 copes in three hours isn't bad.

[BlobVanDam]

I'd agree top 10 is a safe bet for DT at this point, but beyond that, I have no idea. I'll guess 6. I can't wait to find out, whenever that is. 

[DreamerTV]

Here in italy is still n.1 on amazon.
There's good chances here will debut at number 1.
As for the US, it will fun to see them reaching the 3rd spot.

[ErHaO]

I am not expecting a big success over here in The Netherlands, compared to previous records. For some reason none of the review outlets I know (sites, magazines) have covered TA and a great deal of recordstores (and consumers, likewise) are vinyl-orientated, which doesn't help sales with that Roadrunner exclusive 100 dollar box that isn't even there at release. I saw DT12 quite a lot (magazines, websites, stores) in the weeks prior to release. And other albums of the same date, like Avantasia, are well covered. Odd.

We are a small country so I doubt it will impact the bigger picture and the fans here will probably still buy it, but I do find it odd. Especially given they have three shows booked here, which is more than most other EU countries.

[Nmilton1]

The Astonishing is the #4 ranked item in music sales on Amazon.com.  It is behind only Adele. David Bowie, and the Eagles.   Not positive, but I would bet that this is the highest rank that one of their releases has ever been.   I would also guess that this is one of the higher rankings for any metal/prog band releases for this year.  Maybe Megadeth's album was higher, but not definite. 

I would assume that this would translate to a decent billboard rank.   

[Chino]

The Astonishing is the #4 ranked item in music sales on Amazon.com.  It is behind only Adele. David Bowie, and the Eagles.   Not positive, but I would bet that this is the highest rank that one of their releases has ever been.   I would also guess that this is one of the higher rankings for any metal/prog band releases for this year.  Maybe Megadeth's album was higher, but not definite. 

I would assume that this would translate to a decent billboard rank.   

DT seems to always get outperformed by dead people. Didn't Michael Jackson have six albums beat DT after his death?