I don't really have much desire to engage in this big discussion, but I must say that despite MP's statements, I never get the impression he is actually in a happy place.
That is the feeling I get too... I think he regrets leaving Dream Theater. That was his descision though so he needs to get over it. Maybe the Shttered Fortress tour can help him in that regard but that will possibly only make him regret it even more.
OF COURSE he regrets leaving Dream Theater. Click the Mladen sig here in my profile to something I wrote up years ago. It's pretty obviously he took a chance, and gambled the band would fall in line and wouldn't do anything without him -- and he was wrong. And he has regretted it ever since, trying to find a way to get back in. And all he has really done since then is bide his time doing a bunch of other things that interest him, hoping, at some point, he could make it happen that he rejoined.
Now, years later, he realizes that probably isn't going to happen. So, he does Shattered Fortress, trying to both celebrate and recapture his past, and is starting a prog metal band, that I am sure will play a track or two of Dream Theater in its sets that Mike helped write. He probably hopes that by having Derek, a kick ass songwriting team, and a great singer, that he can get back to the level DT is at, to bookend his career and have something a bit more stable.
We'll see...
I've never met Mike Portnoy. I know people who know him, but I have not met the man. So going ONLY from his public persona, and reading between the lines, and taking some commentary from those that do know him -- he's not a bad person. He's a sensitive guy who wears his emotions on his sleeve. He is an uber fan of things he likes, so he prides himself on delivering that same level of fandom and access to people who are fans of the music he helps create.
Sometimes, that passion turns into putting his foot into his mouth. And he certainly has a streak of anger when it comes to DT, and that, at times, leaks through when he talks about DT in the public eye. But can you blame him? I mean, the band that he co-founded, wrote with, built into this juggernaut (remember, it was Mike that did not want to go commercial on FII -- John sided with the label -- and they bounced back with SFAM, which was spurred by Mike), and then he made a poor choice trying to step away.
Had Mike simply backed off all his self-imposed "duties" for a couple of record and touring cycles, and just been a drummer, he probably would have given himself time to do some of those other projects and not leave DT. But instead, his ego got the best of him, and boom, he's out of the band. Mistakes happen. He knows it. The band knows it. But while we're years down the road at this point, too much has likely been said (publicly and privately) for DT to bring Mike Portnoy back in, unless Mike Mangini leaves of his own accord.
If Mangini ever decided he didn't want DT any longer, I think a big sit down between Portnoy and the DT guys would happen, and they'd make it happen. But that's only if Mangini decided that HE wanted to leave. If he's content and happy, the band likely will never get rid of him. He's too good, and obviously, he doesn't talk as much as Portnoy does, so it's easier to control the messaging...
Portnoy isn't a bad guy. Neither are the DT guys. Shit happens, you move on. Portnoy hasn't been able to move on as well as the other guys have. And that was expected (at least by me). But if Shattered Fortress and his new band ends up letting Mike rebuild his prog metal career and provide stability, and compete (the new band) at times with DT, I think Mike will be better for it.