Fricking crashing airplanes

[Super Dude]

Oh no, I mean Jihadists also seem to have a thing with Jihadists from other countries.

[rumborak]

Interesting article:

https://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinion/palmer-malaysia-flight-370/index.html?c=mobile-homepage-t

The point it makes is that all those turns and elevation changes could just as well be explained by a plane flying with an incapacitated crew and the autopilot off. So, say an explosion or fire could have both incapacitated the crew, and maybe that's how the ACARS was deactivated. From there on you have plane that simply tries to keep its speed constant, but will for example veer off through turbulences.

Creepy thought though; assuming the passengers were killed too (asphyxiation, decompression etc), this would have been a flying coffin essentially, transporting dead people for 7 hours until it ran out of fuel.

[Cool Chris]

Something like that happened with Payne Stewart.

Anyhow, is the whole world looking for this damn thing?

[El Barto]

Interesting article:

https://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinion/palmer-malaysia-flight-370/index.html?c=mobile-homepage-t

The point it makes is that all those turns and elevation changes could just as well be explained by a plane flying with an incapacitated crew and the autopilot off. So, say an explosion or fire could have both incapacitated the crew, and maybe that's how the ACARS was deactivated. From there on you have plane that simply tries to keep its speed constant, but will for example veer off through turbulences.

Creepy thought though; assuming the passengers were killed too (asphyxiation, decompression etc), this would have been a flying coffin essentially, transporting dead people for 7 hours until it ran out of fuel.

That's called a phugoid.  It's happened in a few noteworthy instances. The famous Sioux City accident, and the JAL disaster are both examples that happened when the aircraft lost all hydraulics. The problem with that as a theory here is all of the maneuvering that took place after LoC. Even assuming that the AP was working and the auto-throttles weren't, then that radar avoiding and light-years-off-course heading would have had to have been programmed in before takeoff, which points right back the the current suspicion. 

Also, and here's something I've yet to hear any explanation of,  the aircraft allegedly exceeded it's service ceiling by a pretty good margin. Service ceilings aren't a recommendation. They're the theoretical limit of what a plane could fly under perfect conditions. If that plane had been empty and mostly out of fuel, it could probably have reached that point, but it also would have been damn near uncontrollable. Rather than just nosing down when it reached it's ceiling that plane probably would have gone tits-up without a skilled pilot controlling things.

[King Postwhore]

[TAC]

 King 

[bosk1]

I've thought long and hard about this, and listened to some of the most brilliant minds give their theories.  After weighing all the facts and analyses, I have to agree that the most logical explanation is definitely langoliers.

[Fiery Winds]

Another theory: https://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Like EB said, I'm not sure how this squares with the flight path after the "event", but an electrical fire seems plausible.

[El Barto]

Another theory: https://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Like EB said, I'm not sure how this squares with the flight path after the "event", but an electrical fire seems plausible.

I see two problems with it. He's certainly correct that if they smell smoke they're heading to the closest acceptable airport (and in a fire "acceptable" is going to be pretty loose criteria). However, Langkawi would have been a terrible choice. Yes, it's an international airport, but it was over 300 miles away from the point where the incident seems to have begun and offers some terrain problems. Meanwhile, on their way out they would have flown a few miles North of Sultan Mahmud Airport. Nice 13k' runway, only 150m back, perfectly aligned with their return heading and jutting right out into the water. I find it hard to believe they would have chosen anything else. Also, it gets them back into communication range a lot quicker, and that's something they would have been mindful of. The other problem is that while I can see pulling circuit breakers to isolate a short, you want the transponder on. You absolutely want people to know there's a problem for exactly this reason. If you ditch in the water that's not a dealbreaker, but only if people know to be looking for you before sun, dehydration and sharks kill all of your pax. There's also an innumerable amount of fishing boats all over the place. If they'd come in like that due to emergency there'd be witnesses. They had to have looked like any other flight. Guess that's three problems.

Still, his might be the best theory yet considering the amazing amount of garbage the networks are spewing. I have a great deal of respect for Sullenberger, but is he really an expert on aviation safety? That's pretty much the norm for the networks; save the one trying desperately to spin this towards terrorism. The only people I want to hear discussing this are former NTSB investigators who know their shit, but more often than not they're just answering dumbed down questions from nimrods. Factor in the amazing lack of info coming from the people involved and I have to doubt almost everything they're telling us. I seriously doubt the plane reached FL450, and it's equally improbably that they flew for 7 hours low enough to avoid radar; fuel consumption is too high down low.

[TempusVox]

Since this began, I have thought that whatever happened, baring any hijacking, or act of terrorism, had to have happend pretty quickly. My theory is that the sharp turn may have indicated that once the pilots became aware of a problem they attempted to turn the plane, but were unsuccessful . I think it went thusly: Fire shuts down electrical very rapidly, cockpit is engulfed, pilots make attempt to turn, they are overcome, plane flies on until it crashes or runs out of fuel and crashes. Which I'd not like to think was a possibility because the horror for the passengers was probably mind boggling. I recall seeing a video on some documentary years ago that the NTSB had done with some testing, and fire can nearly engulf a planes cockpit in seconds (as it can anywhere else). I seem to recall they had speculated that had happened to another plane that went down back in the 60's or early 70's. When they recovered the wreckage, the cockpit section was totally burnt out, but the fuselage, and engines were still intact. Mercifully, the passengers should have been dead from smoke inhalation (yeah not very merciful I know) before the plane finally crashed.

[Chino]

Since this began, I have thought that whatever happened, baring any hijacking, or act of terrorism, had to have happend pretty quickly. My theory is that the sharp turn may have indicated that once the pilots became aware of a problem they attempted to turn the plane, but were unsuccessful . I think it went thusly: Fire shuts down electrical very rapidly, cockpit is engulfed, pilots make attempt to turn, they are overcome, plane flies on until it crashes or runs out of fuel and crashes. Which I'd not like to think was a possibility because the horror for the passengers was probably mind boggling. I recall seeing a video on some documentary years ago that the NTSB had done with some testing, and fire can nearly engulf a planes cockpit in seconds (as it can anywhere else). I seem to recall they had speculated that had happened to another plane that went down back in the 60's or early 70's. When they recovered the wreckage, the cockpit section was totally burnt out, but the fuselage, and engines were still intact. Mercifully, the passengers should have been dead from smoke inhalation (yeah not very merciful I know) before the plane finally crashed.

My only issue with this is that the plane would have hit the water violently if the pilots weren't trying to land it like the guy did in the Hudson. I think it would have blown apart on impact and we would have spotted wreckage by now.

[El Barto]

When they initiate a sharp turn the AP disengages. If they reengage it they return back to their original course unless they had the time and wherewithal to set a new waypoint. If they don't turn it back on then they fly the aforementioned phugoid back over the course they programmed, and certainly don't go on a roundabout radar avoiding track.

[rumborak]

Another theory: https://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Like EB said, I'm not sure how this squares with the flight path after the "event", but an electrical fire seems plausible.

I've also swayed more and more to a "benign" theory like that. And regarding the flight path, as the other article mentioned, a plane with AP off will just try to keep the speed maintained and can massively veer off when it encounters turbulence. And say the electrical fire kept burning, slowly chipping away at the remaining functioning components. I could see how at some point it will start going up and down due to malfunctions.

and certainly don't go on a roundabout radar avoiding track.

How much credence can be given to this "radar avoiding track" btw? I mean, essentially after it flew over that western island they have no information where it actually went. What part of the flight path is supposed to have been stealthily?

[rumborak]

Thai military saw the same flight path as Malaysian one:

https://www.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

"The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off,"

If that's the case it would certainly point to some malfunction.

[El Barto]

and certainly don't go on a roundabout radar avoiding track.

How much credence can be given to this "radar avoiding track" btw? I mean, essentially after it flew over that western island they have no information where it actually went. What part of the flight path is supposed to have been stealthily?

Fair enough. It does seem that they're basing radar avoidance on the fact that it stopped sending back primary returns. Flying right out over the Indian Ocean would do the same thing. However, what they do know is that it flew a deliberate course, following waypoints used all the time by the airlines. Those waypoints either had to have been programmed into the FMS or flown manually. Neither option jibes with the fire theory.

[El Barto]

"The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off,"

If that's the case it would certainly point to some malfunction.

It's not the case. It's either a lost in translation thing, or CNN taking something out of context. If the ADS-B was pinging intermittently, everybody and their dog would have been picking it up. It's more likely he was saying that the primary returns were hit or miss, and that would make perfect sense. He could also be referring to the satellite signal, which is irregular by design.

[Sir GuitarCozmo]

More derp.

https://www.eutimes.net/2014/03/malaysia-airlines-mystery-deepens-after-top-disease-experts-rushed-to-indian-ocean/

[JayOctavarium]

Well... Diego Garcia does have a landing strip that can handle the jet...

[ResultsMayVary]

More derp.

https://www.eutimes.net/2014/03/malaysia-airlines-mystery-deepens-after-top-disease-experts-rushed-to-indian-ocean/

The more of this stuff I see coming out just continues to demonstrate that no one has any idea what happened to this plane. I wouldn't be surprised if it tooks years to find the black boxes, like with the Air France flight. Maybe longer, since the airline wasn't on its original flight path.

[TempusVox]

More derp.

https://www.eutimes.net/2014/03/malaysia-airlines-mystery-deepens-after-top-disease-experts-rushed-to-indian-ocean/

WHAT..............................................the fuck?? Really??? Who comes up with this stuff?!?! Jerry Fletcher much??? Wow! And I thought the alien theory was out there.

[rumborak]

I would sooooo like to live a day in such a person's mind. I mean, it must be a crazy jumble of interlocking things that is permeated by a sinister undertone.

[Mebert78]

If things stay as they are and no new info emerges, this has the potential to become one of the great mysteries of all-time -- like JFK or Area 51.  I've heard everything from rumors of alien abduction of the plane, to government involvement, to terrorism, to pilot suicide, to simple mechanical failure.  It's hard to believe that commercial plane could just vanish.  It's like straight out of Oceans Eleven or Inside Man.

[cramx3]

Dont worry everyone, Courtney Love found it:

https://celebrity.yahoo.com/news/courtney-love-claims-she-may-found-malaysia-airlines-134000084-us-weekly.html

[JayOctavarium]

dafuq?

[El Barto]

dafuq?

A website crowdsourced the searching when they thought it was close to the original loss of contact point. They had an ap that displayed satellite imagery of the area in question and when well-intentioned people went to their website it'd throw out random grids for them to scroll through. If you saw something planecrashy you would click the report button. She went there, found an oil slick with some metallic objects and reported it along with hundreds of others since it actually looked quite relevant. Her problem was that she got all excited and tweeted that she'd found it, and since she's a halfwitted junky people are bagging on her.

[millahh]

So I'm able to partially hear a TV right now, and they're saying that the data on the guy's home flight sim were deleted??  That's...suggestive.

[El Barto]

So I'm able to partially hear a TV right now, and they're saying that the data on the guy's home flight sim were deleted??  That's...suggestive.

I heard and thought the same thing. What interested me was that they said they were "trying to undelete them." This makes me think he might have shredded stuff, which is far more telling than had he just hit delete.

[Chino]

So I'm able to partially hear a TV right now, and they're saying that the data on the guy's home flight sim were deleted??  That's...suggestive.

I heard and thought the same thing. What interested me was that they said they were "trying to undelete them." This makes me think he might have shredded stuff, which is far more telling than had he just hit delete.

I think they are referring to those forensic teams that can extract data off a hard drive even if it's burned, wiped clean, or smashed.

[jonnybaxy]

So I'm able to partially hear a TV right now, and they're saying that the data on the guy's home flight sim were deleted??  That's...suggestive.

I heard and thought the same thing. What interested me was that they said they were "trying to undelete them." This makes me think he might have shredded stuff, which is far more telling than had he just hit delete.

I think they are referring to those forensic teams that can extract data off a hard drive even if it's burned, wiped clean, or smashed.

Yeah probably, I believe they're called shadow files of something.

[El Barto]

Anybody can download free software to recover deleted files. As long as nothing has overwritten them it's simple enough that even the Malaysians could do it. If they need forensic teams to come in because the HDD was "burned, wiped clean, or smashed" then that points to the pilot being a bad guy.

[rumborak]

yeah, there's different type of deletion. There's the plain one where you just delete the entry in the master table, meaning the actual data is still on the drive, just nothing points to it anymore. Those are easily undeleted. It of course becomes much harder when new data has overwritten the old data. But I think even in those cases they can do stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if they can tell from the actual magnetization on the drive what the previous bit was.

[cramx3]

Yea I think thats why if you use a disk wiper, it like does a write over every bit like 100 times or something so you cant tell what was there before accurately.

[rumborak]

I did some Tomnod-ing earlier today, but it's rather frustrating I have to say. They don't even tell you what spot you're investigating, and there's also no preprocessing done on the pictures. So, if there's a cloud cover, you're staring at a super-white picture, whereas a simple brightness-contrast adjustment would make you able to discern stuff.
Ideally DigitalGlobe would completely open-source the data of that day, so that companies/people could run their own algorithms on it. For example, I couldn't help but think that me staring at a completely featureless spot of the Indian Ocean was a waste of my processing power. At least do some basic identification of images with unusual features (e.g. color), and direct people there.

[El Barto]

The randomizing of Tomnod's search grids makes perfect sense to me. If you let people pick and choose, or even know where they've been sent to you're not going to cover enough ground. I poked around there a few minutes last week, and while it was slow because of all of the traffic I thought the approach was pretty sound.

Also, I'm not sure how you'd go about uncovering the water beneath clouds. Not trying to be argumentative, but is it actually possible to see under opaque objects from satellite imagery?

[Chriss_Myazz]

It of course becomes much harder when new data has overwritten the old data. But I think even in those cases they can do stuff.

True, but at this point, or beyond... the software isn't gonna be free.
Infact, I think there will be more needed than just software to retrieve overwritten data, I guess it all depends on how many passes were used.

CM