Fricking crashing airplanes

[El Barto]

It of course becomes much harder when new data has overwritten the old data. But I think even in those cases they can do stuff.

True, but at this point, or beyond... the software isn't gonna be free.
Infact, I think there will be more needed than just software to retrieve overwritten data, I guess it all depends on how many passes were used.

CM

It's hard to say since the government isn't exactly forthcoming about what it can and can't do. The CW is that HDD densities have increased to the point where any wiping is sufficient. You're certainly taking a chance against a government with unlimited resources to throw at it, including electron microscope analysis, though. Paranoia aside, the NIST seems to support the CW

Advancing technology has created a situation that has altered previously held best practices regarding magnetic disk type storage media. Basically the change in track density and the related changes in the storage medium have created a situation where the acts of clearing and purging the media have converged. That is, for ATA disk drives manufactured after 2001 (over 15 GB) clearing by overwriting the media once is adequate to protect the media from both keyboard and laboratory attack.

Any basic shredding program is going to use a minimum of 7 passes (the former DOD standard) and if you select it 35 passes (Peter Gutman's specification). When you're dealing with HDDs in the Terabyte range that's pretty much going to cover it. If there actually is a method of retrieving the data Gutman-wiped, it's probably something more sophisticated than analyzing the platters microscopically, which is the last known workable method.

The flipside is that the new DOD standard appears to say that only degaussing the platters will truly be sufficient and don't rely on shredding. I suspect they probably know a thing or two we don't about secrecy. 

[rumborak]

The randomizing of Tomnod's search grids makes perfect sense to me. If you let people pick and choose, or even know where they've been sent to you're not going to cover enough ground.

I had the same thought, i.e. everybody would want to search the same area, but then again, if you show a map of what hasn't been reviewed yet, that might be interesting to people.

Also, I'm not sure how you'd go about uncovering the water beneath clouds. Not trying to be argumentative, but is it actually possible to see under opaque objects from satellite imagery?

The thing was, the cloud cover wasn't completely opaque. It just washed out everything below where it was hard to discern anything. A simple graphics preprocessing, i.e. the kind everybody does on their home photos, would help wonders in those cases. And again, also not direct people to a patch that is completely black.

[rumborak]

Btw, if anyone ever wondered how mythologies work, check out the many "eyewitness sightings" that are now popping up.

[El Barto]

The newest "possible debris" is once again too large to be a credible prospect. One is a rectangle the size of an entire wing. With a length of 24m the width has to be 10 or 12 and I just don't can't see such an object on a 777-200.

[rumborak]

To me it just looks like just a different combination of white froth that's everywhere around there.

[gmillerdrake]

Unless that plane is getting packed with dirty bombs or stolen nukes from Pakistan and one day will be used as some sort of 'weapon'....I don't think we will ever know what happened to it.

Doesn't the 'black box' only chime or submit data for a month.....and only a distance of 5 miles or so? If that's the case then they have little time to locate it and the depth of ocean is what....a mile, mile and a half? So, a ship would have to be virtually 'on top' of the wreckage to even 'hear' the black box....and they don't even know where to look.

It'll go down in history as one of those Aviation mysteries.

[El Barto]

The black boxes will ping for a month but they'll retain their data for much longer. They're essentially high quality hard drives so they'll keep data until they're damaged. I think corrosion will be the problem in this case, and they have plenty of time before that becomes an issue. It was a year and a month or two before they turned up AF447's black boxes and they still had plenty of telling data. Also, if they find wreckage and bodies they'll be able to ascertain quite a bit even if they can't get the black boxes.

And I think any link with terrorism is beyond remote. It'd have to be one of the pilots and they'd know about it by now. Hell, we'd have leaked 3 years worth of his phone records by now. Nobody other than an experienced commercial airline pilot could steal that plane and land it somewhere safely.

[rumborak]

I really don't know much about ocean currents, but that spot is southwest of Perth. Isn't that a bit very far off course?

[El Barto]

Since we don't know what his course was it's impossible to tell. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that his plan was to crash the plane in the deepest, most remote part of the world he could reach to rule out ever turning up any evidence at all. As it stands right now he's a hero until proven complicit. Not a bad suicide from that standpoint.

[gmillerdrake]

And I think any link with terrorism is beyond remote. It'd have to be one of the pilots and they'd know about it by now. Hell, we'd have leaked 3 years worth of his phone records by now. Nobody other than an experienced commercial airline pilot could steal that plane and land it somewhere safely.

I don't actually believe that there was any type of terrorism behind this....I was just saying that unless that plane shows back up somewhere/sometime in the future I don't see how they are going to find it if they haven't located it by now. Especially since they don't know where to really look.

[El Barto]

Within a year debris will start to wash up somewhere. That'll at least give some idea where to start looking since global currents are fairly predictable. I won't put a big X on the spot, but it'll give you an arc to start searching. Furthermore, that debris will yield some clues. I agree that there's a real chance that it never gets solved, but I don't think it's at all hopeless.

[TempusVox]

So, I had a question for anyone who might know how it works; could a sudden fire damage the electrical systems so bad that it caused the "way points" or whatever to change on their own? Considering where they're claiming the debris field might be now, I still theorize something sudden could have happened and the pilot had just enough time to attempt a turn before becoming incapacitated, and the plane continued on until it crashed. I have no scientific or engineering rationale or evidence to support this theory. I'm merely trying to think of the simplest explanation. It's not right to theorize without all the facts assembled first; and in their absence were only left with simple explanations and guesses really.

I would like to believe that even if the pilot were suicidal, he wouldn't also go out a murderer as well.

If something mechanical did happen, the horror for those possibly still alive on the plane before it went down is nearly too much to comprehend. And this coming from someone who has been in three plane "crashes" (2 private, and 1 commercial...they classified it a crash because we went off the runway).

I mean, I make my living off of my imagination, and maybe because I believe mine to be especially keen, but it's almost too much to think about really.

[El Barto]

So, I had a question for anyone who might know how it works; could a sudden fire damage the electrical systems so bad that it caused the "way points" or whatever to change on their own? Considering where they're claiming the debris field might be now, I still theorize something sudden could have happened and the pilot had just enough time to attempt a turn before becoming incapacitated, and the plane continued on until it crashed. I have no scientific or engineering rationale or evidence to support this theory. I'm merely trying to think of the simplest explanation. It's not right to theorize without all the facts assembled first; and in their absence were only left with simple explanations and guesses really.

I would like to believe that even if the pilot were suicidal, he wouldn't also go out a murderer as well.

If something mechanical did happen, the horror for those possibly still alive on the plane before it went down is nearly too much to comprehend. And this coming from someone who has been in three plane "crashes" (2 private, and 1 commercial...they classified it a crash because we went off the runway).

I mean, I make my living off of my imagination, and maybe because I believe mine to be especially keen, but it's almost too much to think about really.

Those waypoints have to be programmed in before the flight. The only way I could see what you're describing is if there was a previously programmed course that it reverted back to because of some computer freakout, but I don't think they save courses; they change too often. Don't take this as me being conspiracy minded, since I'm not, but I think that it might be possible for the airline's HQ to send new course info (waypoints, among other things) to the aircraft via the ACARS. However, I don't know if these would be automatically programmed or if they'd just go to the pilots who'd have to input them manually. I know the pilot who does the AMA I keep up with has hit on the nav programming several times before, so I'll see if I can find a better explanation tomorrow when I have some time.

[TempusVox]

So, I had a question for anyone who might know how it works; could a sudden fire damage the electrical systems so bad that it caused the "way points" or whatever to change on their own? Considering where they're claiming the debris field might be now, I still theorize something sudden could have happened and the pilot had just enough time to attempt a turn before becoming incapacitated, and the plane continued on until it crashed. I have no scientific or engineering rationale or evidence to support this theory. I'm merely trying to think of the simplest explanation. It's not right to theorize without all the facts assembled first; and in their absence were only left with simple explanations and guesses really.

I would like to believe that even if the pilot were suicidal, he wouldn't also go out a murderer as well.

If something mechanical did happen, the horror for those possibly still alive on the plane before it went down is nearly too much to comprehend. And this coming from someone who has been in three plane "crashes" (2 private, and 1 commercial...they classified it a crash because we went off the runway).

I mean, I make my living off of my imagination, and maybe because I believe mine to be especially keen, but it's almost too much to think about really.

Those waypoints have to be programmed in before the flight. The only way I could see what you're describing is if there was a previously programmed course that it reverted back to because of some computer freakout, but I don't think they save courses; they change too often. Don't take this as me being conspiracy minded, since I'm not, but I think that it might be possible for the airline's HQ to send new course info (waypoints, among other things) to the aircraft via the ACARS. However, I don't know if these would be automatically programmed or if they'd just go to the pilots who'd have to input them manually. I know the pilot who does the AMA I keep up with has hit on the nav programming several times before, so I'll see if I can find a better explanation tomorrow when I have some time.

Considering that there appears to be some inconsistencies as to when Malaysia alledgedly knew about certain things, if we use your guess, maybe something happened and they diverted it from the ground. A big hole in this thing now for me is, if the plane crashed where they think they spotted debris, wouldn't Australia have picked the damn thing up?

[El Barto]

I think where they're searching now is well outside of Aussie coverage (of any sort). However, it doesn't matter because it's not the plane. Like I said before, there isn't going to be a 24x12m chunk of that plane floating on the water. It's a piece of boat or a very large cargo container. At this point I honestly don't know what to believe from what we're seeing, but I'm leaning towards nothing. I'm not sure about their satellite ACARS pings. I'm pretty sure the aircraft never hit FL450. I have no real reason to trust the various militaries that claim to have primary returns (but didn't bother telling anybody for days). As far as I can tell that plane might have nosedived right where it was supposed to be at LOC and they just missed it.

[El Barto]

Did a couple of searches and here are some relevant bits concerning the AP.

We program in the entire route, complete with lateral navigation (LNAV) and vertical navigation (VNAV). Once airborne with LNAV engaged, the plane will fly unaided to the destination. In the real world we are often given changes enroute.

The vertical portion requires pilot action. Though the VNAV knows where the descent should be started, it won't start down until the pilot sets an assigned altitude on the Mode Control Panel (MCP). This is because we can't actually start down until the controller has cleared us. If we fly past the descent point calculated by the computer and haven't yet started down, we will get an alert, something like "SET MCP ALTITUDE". If we see this, we would probably ask the controller for lower altitude.

I note that he said "given" changes en route, rather than fed changes or changed en route.

Yes, all the SIDS are stored in the database on the FMC so we simply select the appropriate departure. The waypoints, along with altitude and speed restrictions, are automatically loaded.

SIDs are Standard Instrument Departures and relate to getting away from the airport. STARs (Standard Terminal Arrival Routes) are also preprogrammed and apply to getting into your approach. SIDs are meant to get you heading away from the airport towards a transition point en route to your destination. At that transition point you're going to switch over to the program you input before the flight. This flight would have been well beyond that transition point and switched away from the preprogrammed SIDs which wouldn't have contained any instructions that far out anyway.


My take on all of this is that they were flying a course that they programmed in manually. Whether or not the AP was controlling the aircraft or they were flying it manually is hard to say. I think it's safe to say that the AP didn't switch to some other course on it's own, though.

[AngelBack]

OK, here to fan the flames of massive conspiracy.  If anyone recalls the story, a few weeks ago two ex-Navy Seals were found dead on the Maersk ship Alabama (yeah that one, Tom Hanks movie).  They were working for a US Military contractor, The Trident Group.  The Trident Group supplied "escorts" for transit of either extremely high value or chem/bio or nuclear cargo.  The story was that they found heroin in both of their cablns and their bodies were dropped off in the Seychelles.  Coincidentally, there was cargo on the Alabama that was also dropped off in the Seychelles that ended up on the Maylasian airplane.  I can't verify the sources but was reported on a nationally syndicated talk show.  Has anyone else heard this?  If correct, the dots on the conspiracy theory seem to be a little closer together than before.  If this is true, I am sure the white house knows it and although I would understand their silence on the matter until resolved but it would certainly add a couple layers of intrigue.

[rumborak]

That sounds a bit conspiracy, yeah. Besides, how do those sources know some of that cargo ended up on that plane?  First of all I doubt this is public information, and secondly I think they said the plane cargo was innocuous.

Just saw the picture of the new piece of flotsam they're gonna check out. This one at least looks like an object to me; the previous two looked more like surf to me.

[El Barto]

It was the Rooskies who were reporting the cargo/Seychelles link. They claim to have been tracking that cargo all along because they thought it was something they needed to know about. It was all n the link somebody posted a few days ago.

[Jaq]

Because I'm that kind of guy, what's interesting me more than the actual story-we know so little, comparatively, and we may never know unless we find the plane what MAY have happened-is how the media is covering it.

This morning CNN took a moment to address the criticism that they're covering literally nothing else but this story. They beat their breasts about it, how of course they weren't, but it was important news, but they certainly weren't covering nothing else.

And then proceeded to cover nothing else for the next hour at least.

[rumborak]

Ok, what the hell:

https://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

3 weeks in they release information that the plane went down to 12,000 feet, which is what you do in case of some catastrophic event because a) it's below regular air traffic and b) there's enough air to breathe at that altitude, so there's no danger of decompression.

[El Barto]

I believe FL120 is something of a magic number with regards to how the plane will behave pressurization wise. I'm pretty sure going up that's when all of the alarms will start going off if the AC isn't pressurized, so I'd imagine that's when the all-clear would be if descending. I don't think the air traffic thing doesn't really factor into it, though. At that low of an altitude you're getting real close to uncontrolled airspace and you're considerably less safe. Right around that FL is going to be a transition point, above which there is no more VFR traffic and everybody is being controlled by ATC or flying designated airways and flight levels. Up high you know where everybody is going to be because ATC and procedure are keeping them there. Down low at Fl120 you could conceivably wind up getting waylayed by some JFK Jr. type in a Grumman Yankee or something.

[rumborak]

Very cool, they used the Doppler effect on the handshakes to determine that the plane must have flown south.

[rumborak]

OK, seriously, I don't know what the Malaysians are pulling here, but changing one of the most basic facts (the last words transmitted from the cockpit) 3 weeks in just reeks of a cover-up. Add to that the whole thing where the first week was wasted because they didn't release the information about the radar sightings of the plane far west of where they were looking...

[El Barto]

OK, seriously, I don't know what the Malaysians are pulling here, but changing one of the most basic facts (the last words transmitted from the cockpit) 3 weeks in just reeks of a cover-up. Add to that the whole thing where the first week was wasted because they didn't release the information about the radar sightings of the plane far west of where they were looking...

I was wondering if the initial "alright, good night" was actually reported as fact from transcripts, or if some Malaysian dude just said something like "it was a real casual thanks and good night sort of thing." In any event, while it is yet another example of Malaysian silliness, it's completely inconsequential. It's still a non-standard comm, and it's still perfectly normal and something you'd hear all the time in ATC world.

[rumborak]

That might all be true, but the fact that they rectify this thing 3 weeks in, or rectify searching in the wrong spot for a week, either shows incompetence or intentional lack of good communication. IIRC for a while American specialists had to work on "interpreted radar data", which was pretty much useless. Only when the raw data was finally given to them did they make some headway.
As some foreign spokesperson has said, one of the biggest obstacles in the investigation is the " opaqueness " of the Malaysian investigation. It's all very trickle here, trickle there, and many times even plain wrong information. I can totally understand the Chinese being pissed off.

[jammindude]

"C'mon, it's Czechoslovakia. We zip in, we pick 'em up, we zip right out again. We're not going to Moscow. It's Czechoslovakia. It's like going into Wisconsin." - Bill Murray in Stripes

While this is a joke, it should underline something that we sometimes take for granted.    Maybe I'm just being naive...but I suspect that many smaller countries are not run with the efficiency that major world players are.    Dealing with a government like Malaysia might be like the Governor of California calling the Mayor of Powell, Wyoming.   

[TempusVox]

My cousins father in law is now retired,  but he still serves on the NTSB crash analysis team. He was formerly the chief engineer at G E Aircraft Engines. He was telling my cousin that everday data is downloaded to the data center of all GE engines all over the world. Now I dont know what engines were in this plane, but he seems to believe that there has been quite a bit of blatant misinformation and misdirection. He told my cousin it goes beyond incompetence. He personally feels Malaysia may have information that could incense China and other countries somehow. That something mechanical could have occurred that they should have acted on prior to the flight that they didn't. Which could have serious lasting implications on their future aviation industry. Im thinking of calling him and asking him to elaborate. I havent seen him for some time. I recall many years ago on Thanksgiving we were invited to their home for dinner, and he took a phone call during dinner and came back to the table to tell us his team had called him to tell him a commercial plane crashed with only the crew on board, and the pilots were both killed. Then like it was nothing, he was like, "Can you pass the gravy, please?" His wife said he took those calls all the time.

[El Barto]

My cousins father in law is now retired,  but he still serves on the NTSB crash analysis team. He was formerly the chief engineer at G E Aircraft Engines. He was telling my cousin that everday data is downloaded to the data center of all GE engines all over the world. Now I dont know what engines were in this plane, but he seems to believe that there has been quite a bit of blatant misinformation and misdirection. He told my cousin it goes beyond incompetence. He personally feels Malaysia may have information that could incense China and other countries somehow. That something mechanical could have occurred that they should have acted on prior to the flight that they didn't. Which could have serious lasting implications on their future aviation industry. Im thinking of calling him and asking him to elaborate. I havent seen him for some time. I recall many years ago on Thanksgiving we were invited to their home for dinner, and he took a phone call during dinner and came back to the table to tell us his team had called him to tell him a commercial plane crashed with only the crew on board, and the pilots were both killed. Then like it was nothing, he was like, "Can you pass the gravy, please?" His wife said he took those calls all the time.

I believe they were Rolls Royce engines, but the same thing applies. They get telemetry beamed back to them, as does Boeing and the airline. The problem is that telemetry is only sent when something arises (mechanical, not safety) or on a regular but spread out basis. If one of the engines starts to go bad RR will get a big burst of all sorts of data, but if everything is normal they might only get a ping once an hour or something saying "all's well here." This is part of ACARS and it's meant to help all parties know when there's a maintenance issue that will need to be dealt with. It's role in accident investigation is just tangential.

[cramx3]

Well maybe we can add this to conspiracy theories or maybe its true... My father showed me this last night on his phone, but I had to find the article or a similar article today.

https://www.nowtheendbegins.com/blog/?p=17904

[Sir GuitarCozmo]

Wow.

Hid the iPhone in his ass.

Seriously?

[rumborak]

Man, with all these false leads, they could really use a break at this point.

[El Barto]

Man, with all these false leads, they could really use a break at this point.

Wouldn't it be hysterical if the pings the Chinese picked up today were from some other aircraft that nobody even knew was missing? 

Still, they're getting a ping at the correct frequency of an emergency locator beacon that the Aussies say corresponds to what they're looking for, so there's reason to hope that the Chinese just got amazingly lucky out there.

[rumborak]

yeah, let's hope. I mean, the people are dead, there's no question about it. At this point I just want to know what happened.

BTW, I was thinking today, there's gotta be some execs at Boeing who secretly hope the plane doesn't get found. In the current scenario nobody points the finger at the plane, since it really could have been anything. If they find the plane, there's a good chance it was a plane malfunction.

[El Barto]

Honestly, I think mechanical malfunction is out of the question. It was piloted deliberately for apparently quite some distance.