So how likely is this to happen now?
To be honest, it's really impossible to tell. Obviously most people here would like for it to happen, but we haven't had any indication one way or the other since Portnoy left.
Pretty much this. I don't recall specifics as to who said what or specifically what was said, but my vague recollection is that JP seemed pretty much in favor of it. And James seemed both to like the idea for both the fans' sake and for the sake of being able to play more songs, but also hesitant because the longer shows impact him as a vocalist more than any other member. Not sure how Jordan and JM feel about it, so it's hard to say now that MP, who was an advocate of eventually going back to that format, is no longer in the voting equation. My guess is that the band is probably generally in favor of it eventually happening, but will not push nearly as hard as Mike would have if there is any kind of pushback from the label. So if the label isn't onboard with an "evening with" format, it very well might not happen. Still, my gut tells me that while it may not happen this next tour, it'll happen at some point in time, even if it ends up being only select dates on future tours rather than an official "evening with" tour.
Another layer and some more opinion: Subjectively, I think the best and most likely way for it to happen on the next tour cycle is something like this: I think, #1, DT has to put out an album that has at least a couple of songs that will have a fair amount of mass appeal. Given the recent controversy involving MP leaving, the spotlight is back on DT. And this is a good thing. The Iron Maiden tour was great exposure, and was much needed given that they didn't tour extensively in support of BCSL (and, no, I'm still not counting a "PN" tour as an album-support tour; those are two very different things in the marketing world). In terms of exposure and momentum, I still think they took a "net loss" for not doing a U.S.
BCSL tour. However, I think it is a small loss given the exposure from the IM tour and the spotlight being shone on them for MP leaving. Whether the latter is a good thing or a bad thing in terms of albums and concert tickets sold is still up for debate, IMO. But I think that while they will definitely lose some people who write the band off simply because MP isn't in it, the exposure is still probably good, and just having the DT name in front of people is an overall positive. So as step #1, I think they will probably have to put out an album that the label likes and that generates
some commercial interest. I'm not saying they need to have it go gold, because that probably will not happen and isn't a realistic expectation. But I think given DT's musical niche, BCSL's sales and exposure are generally considered to be a success, and that is the level of success I am talking about.
Second, I think they will have to demonstrate some success in selling seats in early legs of the tour. They don't want to over-tour, but I think they should do some scaled-back shorter tour legs, whether it be hitting the festivals, doing some other shorter legs with other bands, or whatever. And if the fan support is at an acceptable level (whatever that is), I think the label and the band could then greenlight a full-on evening with tour. But make no mistake, whether or not the reality is that the band will be just fine without Mike, losing a key, high-profile member creates uncertainty in the public eye and in the industry, so I think they have to go through both of the above steps to settle a lot of that uncertainty in the minds of those who are in a position to make decisions about the tour. That's my $.02 anyway.