NHL 2023-2024: Playoff Time. Hello Darkness.....

[Anguyen92]

Previous season thread.  https://www.dreamtheaterforums.org/boards/index.php?topic=57568.0

Today is free agency day.  Too many names signed.  Hard to recap it all.  I'm not pleased with the Kings' offseason so far.  They signed Cam Talbot for $1M.  This goaltending tandem does not scream inspiring to me for this team.  They only have space for either a 13th forward or a 7th defenseman.  Can't fit both options with $1M in space left. 

Edit: All right, they signed Andreas Englund for 2 years, at $1M AAV.  No idea who he is.  However, 3rd pairing on LD, which is what they sorta needed, but this roster doesn't scream hopeful going into the season.

Anywho, have at it.

[SchecterShredder]

Chad, give your take on the Leafs signing an aging 4th liner for 3x1.5M who's more apt to make the score sheet under penalties than goals or assists? In a talent laden Atlantic division this seems like a poor choice. Reaves at $1.5M isn't terrible,  per say, but 3yrs for a 36 y/o 4th liner seems silly.

[pg1067]

I like Trevor Lewis coming back as a 3rd or 4th line center, but it's not exactly a make or break deal.

[Stadler]

Bergeron v. McDavid.  Discuss.



I'm KIDDING!!!! I'm KIDDING!   

[TAC]

This FA class blows. This must be the worst first day of free agency ever.

WTF are the Bruins doing? Is Chaim Bloom running the board?

Milan fucking Lucic? He sucked when he left here the first time. I like JVR, always been a Bruins Killer, but what does he have left? I'm ok with him, but why sign both him and Lucic?

And Kevin Shittenkirk?? WTF?

I'd rather the Bruins try and develop their own young talent. This is a major statement about how they view their own prospects IMO. I don't understand, as Providence had a good year last year.

[King Postwhore]

Getting one year deals until the cap goes up next year Tim.  They blew their load on a 1st round exit.

This is the result.

[TAC]

Getting one year deals until the cap goes up next year Tim.  They blew their load on a 1st round exit.

This is the result.

Yeah, I get it.

Next year's Free Agent class is much stronger..

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2024/

[SchecterShredder]

The Oil gambled on the cap next year with their Connor Brown signing.  It's a 800k cap hit this year but a potential 3M next year because it's an incentive filled contract.  If he hits all his bonuses the Oil take a 3.5M hit next year for an expired contract. Not a big fan of the potential dead cap space,  but i do like the player and cap hit for next season.

[TAC]

The Oil gambled on the cap next year with their Connor Brown signing.  It's a 800k cap hit this year but a potential 3M next year because it's an incentive filled contract.  If he hits all his bonuses the Oil take a 3.5M hit next year for an expired contract. Not a big fan of the potential dead cap space,  but i do like the player and cap hit for next season.

Like Joe said earlier, the Bruins are paying this year for Bergeron and Krejci for last year.

[jingle.boy]

Chad, give your take on the Leafs signing an aging 4th liner for 3x1.5M who's more apt to make the score sheet under penalties than goals or assists? In a talent laden Atlantic division this seems like a poor choice. Reaves at $1.5M isn't terrible,  per say, but 3yrs for a 36 y/o 4th liner seems silly.

It screams Wayne Simmonds v2. I’d be surprised if Reaves gives the team 20 games by the 3rd year of the contract.

I’m just lamenting the inability to keep any of Schenn, Acciari, or RoR.  Oh, and losing an RFA in Kallgren because no one remembered to qualify him?!?!  The kid was a pretty good goalie the past few years when he was called upon.

[Anguyen92]

I want a re-do of the Kings' offseason.  If people didn't have faith in the goalies last season, I have no faith in these goalies making some noise other than maybe Copley.  One of them will start with the Reign in the AHL.  Like fudge, everyone knew that the Kings' most important thing to add was a goalie.  If they gave the pieces they gave to Winnipeg and got Hellebuyck instead of PLD and gave the same extension as PLD, I would have been fine with that.  Sure, the contract would have ended until he's in his late 30s, but that's a future problem.  These goalies signed now does not address future and, most importantly, today's concerns regarding goalies.



This is it.  I can see it coming.  After 15 years of having a ok foundation of goaltending, they are going to go back to the dark days of the goalie carousel. 

[jingle.boy]

When the Leafs had Rittich for a short period a couple years back, I modified his “Big Save Dave” nickname to “No Save Dave”. That guy is a sieve.

[SchecterShredder]

Talbot isn't any better.  Even in his prime he was good for at least one softie per game. At 35 y/o....good luck.

[jingle.boy]

I ‘get’ why Gretzky is the great one…..I do. But if I had my choice of ‘prime’ Gretzky or ‘prime’ Lemieux…….I’d take Lemieux all day long every time. More physical, better shot…..better two way player…..were he not to have gotten cancer his numbers would have been higher.

You get into the era thing with these two. While 99 wasn’t all that much older than 66……99 benefited from some utterly atrocious attempts at goaltending. Go to YouTube and watch his early years……he could shoot from the blue line and the puck wouldn’t leave the ice and it’d go in.

The stats are with you in this case.  The yearly average of goals/game from '80-'86 ranged from 3.84-4.01; from '86-'93 it ranged between 3.24-3.74. But, everything is relative - talent, coaching, equipment, rules*.  Look if it was so easy to score with that goaltending, why wasn't anyone else doing it?  Lafleur, Bossy (who was a better goal scoring talent than Gretz), MacDonald, Dionne, Gartner, Kurri... all playing in their prime in the same era.  But only Gretz was doing it.  That means HE is the variable, not the "atrocious" goaltending.  Lemieux was scoring at the same pace as his peers - Selanne, Mogilny, Hull, Bure.  Gretz led the league in scoring 5 times; Mario three (the same number as Bure, Hull and Selanne).  Look, I'm not diminishing Mario at all (he's #2 all-time, and COULD have been #1).  But, along with Kev, I'm just pointing out why I don't think there's anything to really compare.  Gretz is in a class all to himself. 

*in '85, the league changed off-setting penalties to five-on-five ... because the Oilers were so fucking dangerous dominant at 4-on-4.  I seem to recall the league changed the delayed offside rule (ie, 'tagging up') because of the Oilers as well.

[KevShmev]

Yey, yep, in the season where Gretzky scored 92 (that is still just ), the next highest goal total was by Mike Bossy...with 64.  That was Bossy's 3rd highest total ever, and he is one of the greatest scorers ever, and even he, in one of his best seasons, still finished miles behind the Great One that season in goals scored.  Only one other guy had 60 or more that season, so, yeah, it's not like everyone was scoring 70+ and 80+ goals while Gretzky edged them out with 92.

[jingle.boy]

Again, to give Mario his dues, if he'd played a full 80 game schedule in '92-'93, the math puts him at 92g/214pts - which is why I call his the greatest season of all time - even at only 60 games.

[KevShmev]

True, but I can't call a season the greatest ever when you missed 1/4 of it.  The reason why he missed so many games sucks for sure, but we have to judge these things based on what players did, not what they could have done. 

[jingle.boy]

True, but I can't call a season the greatest ever when you missed 1/4 of it.  The reason why he missed so many games sucks for sure, but we have to judge these things based on what players did, not what they could have done.

I hear ya, but the fact he did that in just 60 games because of the radiation treatments is in my mind what MAKES it the greatest season ever.  I mean, 80/90/100 points in 60 games would have been incredibly amazing.  But 160!!   

[gmillerdrake]

Guys.....like I said....I 'get' why they call him the Great One. I'm not trying to say he's not, he was in a class all by himself until 84' when Lemieux arrived. That's why I said this just falls back to the 'era' debate that always comes up in every sport. Me personally, as I mentioned.....I take prime Mario over prime Wayne every F'n time. He was just a more complete player. 99 wasn't killing penalties or laying hits on anyone who came near him....then dangling down the ice to notch a goal. 99 was a blast to watch and carved up those teams of the late 70's / early 80's but my opinion is 66 was 'better'. that's relative and all that and can be debated until the sun supernova's, just my stance on it.

[KevShmev]

All good, it's just a good ole sports disagreement.

[jingle.boy]

All good, it's just a good ole sports disagreement.

Agreed. I mean, it’s not like Mario vs Gretz is like McDavid vs Bergeron or anything. 

[gmillerdrake]

All good, it's just a good ole sports disagreement.

Agreed. I mean, it’s not like Mario vs Gretz is like McDavid vs Bergeron or anything. 

Holy crap…..

[SchecterShredder]

All good, it's just a good ole sports disagreement.

Agreed. I mean, it’s not like Mario vs Gretz is like McDavid vs Bergeron or anything. 

You're a monster. And not in the Pierre MacGuire sense.

[Stadler]

True, but I can't call a season the greatest ever when you missed 1/4 of it.  The reason why he missed so many games sucks for sure, but we have to judge these things based on what players did, not what they could have done.

I hear ya, but the fact he did that in just 60 games because of the radiation treatments is in my mind what MAKES it the greatest season ever.  I mean, 80/90/100 points in 60 games would have been incredibly amazing.  But 160!!   

But I think the point is, it's not necessarily linear.   The wear and tear of 20 games is significant, especially on top of 60 already.  I'm not arguing that that season wasn't something special; it absolutely was.  But Gretzky is STILL the only player to score 200 points in a season (yes, Lemieux had 199 in 88-89), and did it with GOALS (92 in 81-82, 87 in 83-84, the two most in any season of 100 or more points)  and ASSISTS (163 in 85-86, and the SEVEN highest assist totals in any season of 100 or more points).   

Gretzky has - still - the four highest season point totals ever, 4 out of the top 5, 8 out of the top 10, and 8 out of the top 11 highest season point totals ever. Lemieux has the other two.   Between the two of them, they have the top 13 highest season point totals in the history of the league.  Just the two of them. 

But back to something I said in the other thread:  I've seen them both. I know hockey; I've watched hours and hours of film from back when I was playing.  Gretzky was DIFFERENT.  He had a way of playing without the puck that was IMO unteachable, and part of what made him "great".   I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like that before (or since).

[gmillerdrake]

He had a way of playing without the puck that was IMO unteachable, and part of what made him "great".   I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like that before (or since).

This is the factor that separates him from all others. This is where 'Hockey IQ' was born.....coaches/owners etc on the lookout for players who know where to be, where to pass etc etc without the puck or before teammates even knew/know they're open. 99 is unequaled in this case.

I'd still take Mario though 

[Anguyen92]

Well, Kings have extended Kopitar starting in the 24-25 season.  $7M AAV for two years.  It's pretty risky when the contract starts at age 37, but Kopitar has shown to be very durable and has always led the Kings in season pts. for his entire career with an exception of like two seasons.  Some may see this as an overpayment because of age, etc., but until his pt. totals actually takes a nosedive and until someone can actually do a better job at his roles than he does, this team still needs him as a player and leader.

https://twitter.com/LAKings/status/1677056669514186753

[Nick]

What's that? I can't hear you over the deafening sound of waiting on a DeBrincat trade that has been teased for weeks.

Seriously though, even if it's an overpayment, Kopitar is a great player and leader that is at least great to know will be around with the Kings.

[Anguyen92]

Well, one of the summer offseason drama story is put to a close.  The Ottawa Senators has traded Alex DeBrincat to the Detroit Red Wings.  DeBrincat did not want to sign in Ottawa long term and signed a four year contract with the Red Wings for around $7.8M AAV.

Sure, the Sens probably would have liked closer to equal value for what they paid to get DeBrincat, but they can just move on from that headache of whether they can get DeBrincat to sign or not and focus on getting someone else.  Maybe someone like Vladimir Tarasenko.  He's still available and wants to sign somewhere.

[romdrums]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the DeBrincat deal.  I'm hoping he provides the scoring the Wings need.  I like the fact that Yzerman didn't give up anything of real consequence to get him and weakened a division rival in the process. I even like the contract they signed him to. Let's see what happens when the skates hit the ice.

[Nick]

After a mixed bag in free agency, that trade is a HUGE win for the Red Wings. Good trade, good contract, and filling a much needed need. Much more excited for the upcoming season now.

[TAC]

Chad, what's your gut feeling on the Nylander situation? He's a UFA next year, correct? Does signing Bertuzzi, even for one year, have any impact on it?
Will the Leafs pay him, especially with Matthews coming due next year as well.?

[jingle.boy]

They need to unload salary, they’re way over the cap. My gut is they will (should) move him before the season, but they probably won’t. There’s a lot more being talked about in the Toronto media - I’ll offer some of those thoughts tomorrow.

[KevShmev]

Ryan O'Reilly going to Nashville means the grace period of me always kind rooting for him because of the role he played in the Blues winning the Cup is OVER.

[jingle.boy]

Chad, what's your gut feeling on the Nylander situation? He's a UFA next year, correct? Does signing Bertuzzi, even for one year, have any impact on it?
Will the Leafs pay him, especially with Matthews coming due next year as well.?

So, to come back on this.  Word is he wants somewhere well north of $9M; Leafs want him in the low 8s.  Bear in mind that any "raise" doesn't kick in until next season ... he's still locked in at $6.9M for this year, so all of the one-year contracts they signed (Bertuzzi, Domi, Klingberg) don't have any impact.  There's so many variables at play though - how much is the cap going to go up for '24/'25?  How much of a raise is Matthews going to get?  What kind of term are they going to be able to sign Nylander for if they can extend him?  Does the team extend Matthews first, then see how much cap space they have left for Willie?  The real impacts for this year is whether they can unload Matt Murray's $4.8M cap hit?  And, how much of a raise is Samsonov going to get (his arbitration hearing is Friday)?

Some might argue that Nylander at $6.9M was a "team friendly" price for the past few years, so it's expected that he's going to hold firm to 'get paid'.  Marner is still $4M higher than Nylander.  The longer they go into the season with him unsigned, the greater the likelihood that it ends up being a situation just like Gaudreau in Calgary last summer - they lost him to free agency with nothing to show for it.  I don't see how the team would/could unload him at the trade deadline - at a minimum the team would keep him around as an own-rental (so to speak), even if they didn't feel they could re-sign him next summer.

Bottom line ... Matthews is non-negotiable; the team *will* absolutely re-sign him, and he'll be the highest paid player in the league when the extension is signed.  Whether that's this summer, part way thru the season, or next June ... doesn't really matter.  The question is whether or not the team feels they can/should extend Nylander before knowing what the Matthews price tag (and term) is going to be.

My gut says they have to move him, and end up with a net gain of at least $4M in cap space.  So the return is not going to be all that great.  But, it's the bed the organization has made for themselves.

[TAC]

Thanks Chad. Was hoping for that kind of answer. I understand the 1 year deals don't impact the following year. I still think Bertuzzi is looking to be paid as well. Gives the Leafs a year to have those discussions with him.

I really like Nylander and will be watching.