Aaron Judge and 62 - a question for MLB fans

[pg1067]

I hate the argument that, because Bonds, McGwire and Sosa bulked up, they were cheating.

For decades, baseball was thought to be the game for the average guy.  Basketball players were super tall, and at least half of the players on a football field were tanks.  At some point, someone realized that bulking up the upper body could be beneficial in baseball.

1987 Mark McGwire hit 49 HR and had 118 RBI.  That HR number is his 5th highest year, and the RBI number is his 3rd highest year.  The photographs shown are probably taken a decade apart.  Is it unrealistic to think he couldn't bulk up over a decade without "cheating"?

Same goes for the Bonds photos.  They're from...what?  1990 and 2001?

I'd be willing to bet that, if I looked hard enough, I could find dozens of guys who, between the late '80s/early '90s and the late '90s/early '00s, bulked up and had no significant spike or a decline in power numbers.

Also, if you want a "before and after", Clemens is another good one. He was a stick figure in Boston and a bull moose in NY. 

Your concept of "stick figure" is odd.

[Samsara]

Paul,

You can deny it all you want. But you're too smart to ignore the obvious. Just because something wasn't definitively proven doesn't mean you ignore the mountain of evidence which clearly points to the truth. Yes, gray areas all around for sure. But anyone with two eyes can tell when something was amiss. And in the case of Bonds, Canseco, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, Brady Anderson, Clemens, etc., it was plainly obvious. It was a dark era for the game and tainted many legendary and pure records.

Believe what you want, obviously. But you know it's true.

[hefdaddy42]

The kind of mass those guys put on is more than they could have done with weights and diet alone in the time constraints they have (length of the offseason).

They were definitely on the juice.

[ProfessorPeart]

I say no. My stance is none of them got a positive test so it's all hearsay.

I could also argue the bulk up argument. Look at people like Hugh Jackman or Chris Hemsworth. They get ripped for Wolverine and Thor and then when you see them months or years removed from those roles they aren't. Who's to say these players didn't adjust their workout routine and then maintain?

Anyway, for me, it's comes down to no positive test.

[Stadler]

I hate the argument that, because Bonds, McGwire and Sosa bulked up, they were cheating.

For decades, baseball was thought to be the game for the average guy.  Basketball players were super tall, and at least half of the players on a football field were tanks.  At some point, someone realized that bulking up the upper body could be beneficial in baseball.

1987 Mark McGwire hit 49 HR and had 118 RBI.  That HR number is his 5th highest year, and the RBI number is his 3rd highest year.  The photographs shown are probably taken a decade apart.  Is it unrealistic to think he couldn't bulk up over a decade without "cheating"?

Same goes for the Bonds photos.  They're from...what?  1990 and 2001?

I'd be willing to bet that, if I looked hard enough, I could find dozens of guys who, between the late '80s/early '90s and the late '90s/early '00s, bulked up and had no significant spike or a decline in power numbers.

Also, if you want a "before and after", Clemens is another good one. He was a stick figure in Boston and a bull moose in NY. 

Your concept of "stick figure" is odd.

I might have the timing wrong, but he ballooned at some point (I had thought it was when he went to Toronto, but maybe it was earlier).  This is to what I was referring:

[pg1067]

Paul,

You can deny it all you want. But you're too smart to ignore the obvious. Just because something wasn't definitively proven doesn't mean you ignore the mountain of evidence which clearly points to the truth. Yes, gray areas all around for sure. But anyone with two eyes can tell when something was amiss. And in the case of Bonds, Canseco, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, Brady Anderson, Clemens, etc., it was plainly obvious. It was a dark era for the game and tainted many legendary and pure records.

Believe what you want, obviously. But you know it's true.

No, I don't know it's true.  I think some of it is probably true, but the reality is that I never dug too deep into "the mountain of evidence" because it really doesn't matter to me.  However, the points I made in my most recent post are points I truly believe.  Those guys didn't bulk up overnight, and showing pictures that are a decade apart and saying, "SEE!!" is just plain silly.  If you want to show me similar pictures from November of Year X and from April of Year X+1, then I might raise an eyebrow, but...

I say no. My stance is none of them got a positive test so it's all hearsay.

I could also argue the bulk up argument. Look at people like Hugh Jackman or Chris Hemsworth. They get ripped for Wolverine and Thor and then when you see them months or years removed from those roles they aren't. Who's to say these players didn't adjust their workout routine and then maintain?

Anyway, for me, it's comes down to no positive test.

This, exactly.  No positive test AND no rule against it (along with sketchy evidence, much of which is from less than credible sources) means I don't care.

[KevShmev]

But how do we know this?   The huge leap in Judge's production is usually the mark of someone who is "cheating" or using.

Contrast that to a guy like Albert Pujols who never saw huge spikes or dives in his HR production from one season to the next.  I know the chatter has often been that if a guy usually hits around x-number of HRs a year and then sees a sudden spike, he is likely using something.  39 to 60 (and still counting) in one season is a major spike.

Have you seen Judge? He's the same as he was, looks-wise, from his rookie year until now. And the huge production leap should be obvious - he played a full season his rookie year and his 52 homers...and was robbed of the MVP by a trash can inflated stats Altuve. Judge has missed time every season since...until this year. And he's smack dab in the middle of his prime.

Pay attention, Kev.

No need for the last comment there.

As for Judge, if you look at HRs per AB for each season:

2017: 10.4
2018: 15.3
2019: 14
2020: 11.2
2021: 14.1
2022: 8.8

Moral of the story: he is hitting HRs with much more frequency than he ever has. As to why, could be any number of reasons.

[hefdaddy42]

I could also argue the bulk up argument. Look at people like Hugh Jackman or Chris Hemsworth. They get ripped for Wolverine and Thor and then when you see them months or years removed from those roles they aren't. Who's to say these players didn't adjust their workout routine and then maintain?

Those actors juice up to.

[Samsara]

Kev - I know the homerun rate. And Judge is also smack dab in the middle of his prime. Whereas when Bonds, etc., did it, they were past their prime. Big, BIG difference. Bonds looks to have started juicing in 2000. Look at how his age 35 through age 39 seasons are. Yeah, something is amiss there - it's called they cheated. Judge is 30 years old. He's spot on this year because he's literally at his peak. McGwire, Bonds, etc., were past their primes. When Judge is 35, if he has this kind of season again, then come talk to me, and we'll revisit it. lol.

Paul - I didn't post pictures. As for the whole comment by PP, and you going "this," uh...then you don't understand how the performance enhancers of the early 2000s worked. It was a slow build up. It wasn't overnight. The drugs enabled them to shorten their recovery times and build muscle continually when most athletes would need rest. As for the actors...they aren't professional athletes judged and making a living on their athletic ability and statistics. Big difference.

edit - and the evidence...I trust investigative reporting from Fainaru-Wada. He worked his ass off, and if you read the book, he painstakingly shows where it all comes from. There was no agenda there, other than to call out BS. And he and Lance Williams did just that. Bonds was a tremendous faker...who never needed to be. He was a HOFer before he cheated.

[pg1067]

Brian, just FYI, while I might quote one person, my responses often include responses to others.  In any event, my overarching point is that I don't care enough about this to object.  The definition of "performance enhancing drug" is completely arbitrary.  For example, cortisone is a PED, but it's not illegal.  Hell...ibuprofen is a PED.

Bonds, etc., did it, they were past their prime.

Can't agree with that.  Bonds' record season was a big spike.  However, it came just past the middle of a 15 season run (from 1992-2004) in which Bonds hit between 33-49 HR per season.  While he might not have been "in his prime" in 2001 (his age 36 season), that's an unmatched level of consistent excellence for a decade and a half.  Let's imagine that if, instead of hitting 73 in 2001, Bonds had hit 37, which was the average of that 15 year run.  The guy would not likely be under suspicion, likely would be in the HOF, but wouldn't have either the single-season or all time records.

As for Judge, if you look at HRs per AB for each season:

2017: 10.4
2018: 15.3
2019: 14
2020: 11.2
2021: 14.1
2022: 8.8

Moral of the story: he is hitting HRs with much more frequency than he ever has. As to why, could be any number of reasons.

Worth noting that he's walking at a higher rate than since his first two full seasons.  I heard someone commenting yesterday that he's learned to lay off breaking pitches out of the zone, so pitchers have to come into the zone or walk him.  And he's not missing mistakes.  Those two things are going to make anyone better, and when that person is built like a defensive end, the results are not surprising.

[KevShmev]

Brian, just FYI, while I might quote one person, my responses often include responses to others.  In any event, my overarching point is that I don't care enough about this to object.  The definition of "performance enhancing drug" is completely arbitrary.  For example, cortisone is a PED, but it's not illegal.  Hell...ibuprofen is a PED.

Well said.  I have been pretty consistent over the years about not really caring who cheats in baseball, because I accept that most of them will cheat, or go that extra mile legal or otherwise, if they think they can get away with it. It's pretty much ingrained into the sport itself.  The much bigger problem is the HOF voters who think they are the morality police with putting in some "cheaters" and leaving out others.  A baseball Hall of Fame without guys like Bonds and Clemens is a joke, and I say that as someone thinks both of those guys are raging a-holes.

[King Puppies and the Acid Guppies]

The kind of mass those guys put on is more than they could have done with weights and diet alone in the time constraints they have (length of the offseason).

I can tell you this is absolutely not accurate. I need to scrounge up some photos of my dad before and after Marine Corp Boot Camp, which is about 13 weeks. He was never on steroids, I know that for a fact.

To be clear, I'm not arguing that none of these guys ever took some sort of steroid or supplement, but massive gains can be made in a short period of time without any kind of "special help"

[hefdaddy42]

The kind of mass those guys put on is more than they could have done with weights and diet alone in the time constraints they have (length of the offseason).

I can tell you this is absolutely not accurate. I need to scrounge up some photos of my dad before and after Marine Corp Boot Camp, which is about 13 weeks. He was never on steroids, I know that for a fact.

To be clear, I'm not arguing that none of these guys ever took some sort of steroid or supplement, but massive gains can be made in a short period of time without any kind of "special help"

I'm not doubting that your dad changed his body in that time, but that's kind of apples and oranges.

These guys didn't go from civilian to going through Marine Corps boot camp.  They were already professional athletes, with the requisite physical attributes that go along with that, and long careers already, and then they all of a sudden sprouted 25 extra pounds of muscle.

[KevShmev]

They ate their Wheaties.

[hefdaddy42]

They ate their Wheaties.

They surely did.

[Grappler]

That's no moon, that's a space station!

As to the original question, as sad as it is, I go by MLB's records.  And there are too many records for me to even care about, aside from the total home-run leader. 

[King Puppies and the Acid Guppies]

The kind of mass those guys put on is more than they could have done with weights and diet alone in the time constraints they have (length of the offseason).

I can tell you this is absolutely not accurate. I need to scrounge up some photos of my dad before and after Marine Corp Boot Camp, which is about 13 weeks. He was never on steroids, I know that for a fact.

To be clear, I'm not arguing that none of these guys ever took some sort of steroid or supplement, but massive gains can be made in a short period of time without any kind of "special help"

I'm not doubting that your dad changed his body in that time, but that's kind of apples and oranges.

These guys didn't go from civilian to going through Marine Corps boot camp.  They were already professional athletes, with the requisite physical attributes that go along with that, and long careers already, and then they all of a sudden sprouted 25 extra pounds of muscle.

Fair enough.

[pg1067]

These photos were taken probably two decades apart (Bonds only wore #7 with the Pirates in 1986, and the second picture is from near the time of his retirement in 2007).  As Puppies noted, I'm not saying the guy didn't "juice," but the notion that a person can ONLY make that kind of change - over a 20 year period - from "juicing" is patently ludicrous.  Now...if you want to show me a picture from October of Year X and another one from April of Year X+1 that shows the same change, then I would view it much differently.

[cramx3]

I could also argue the bulk up argument. Look at people like Hugh Jackman or Chris Hemsworth. They get ripped for Wolverine and Thor and then when you see them months or years removed from those roles they aren't. Who's to say these players didn't adjust their workout routine and then maintain?

Those actors juice up to.

Yup, I'm honestly shocked some people here have their heads in the sand regarding steroid usage.  No positive test? That was the whole point of balco 

[MinistroRaven]

Barry Bonds will FOREVER be the Home run leader for me UNTIL someone hits 763 balls out of the park, then Bonds will be second. 

 

[MinistroRaven]

#62 is IN for Aaron Judge!

Wow, amazing!

[Awaken]

#62 is IN for Aaron Judge!

Wow, amazing!

Congrats to him, he's had a hell of a season and will certainly cash in on it in a few months.  Hope to see him play out his years with the Yankees but it's a business and I wouldn't hold it against him if there is a larger purse elsewhere. 

As for the HR record conversations, a few unsolicited points from awaken:
1) Judge holds the AL record, not the MLB record.  You can say what you want about juiced up athletes, but the consensus from many players in that era is that it was rampant and those few that hit massive numbers of home runs just became the poster children for the argument.  There were no formal rules against taking supplements.  They were also facing pitchers who were 'supplementing', as well.  While that didn't translate to bulk size, it's important to also understand what steroids are and what they do.  Which leads to
2) Taking steroids does NOT benefit athletes much without also putting in the work.  Enormous amounts of work.  In the weight room.  Every day/multiple times a day.  In the batting cages.  Every day/multiple times a day.  With their nutrition - down to the most detailed tracking of every calorie they ingest, and why it's being ingested.  Most of the poster children were great hitters before they began taking - whatever it was they began taking.  The enhancers allow the body to recover faster so the athlete can break down the muscle tissues for growth more frequently, essentially.  They do NOT help a player make a higher rate of contact. 
3)  As someone who has lifted the majority of his life, cleanly, I can say there is a ceiling for us mortals without the help of PEDs.  That ceiling is defined by genetics and effort for each individual.  Lets all take a look at a pic of JP from say . . Scenes from a Memory sessions . . . . look at him ten years later.  Was he on juice just because he radically changed his body?  Or, was it the result of disciplined effort in the gym and WAY more importantly - outside of the gym? 

1998 was my personal favorite year for baseball, smack in the middle of the 'steroid era'.  The 1998 Yankees were the best TEAM I've ever seen play.  And it's not close.  They didn't know how to lose, they didn't accept it when they did.  And I, like literally everyone else I know, cheered like mad for the HR races.  Loved watching those guys mash baseballs.  I don't feel cheated at all for that.  I saw the size of those athletes, we all did.  Most of us had their rookie cards where they were ALL string beans compared to what we were witnessing.  We knew they were getting help then, and we cheered anyway. 

[Stadler]

^^^ There is some truth there.   The unspoken thing, or maybe the ignored thing, is that after the big names, Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, et al, there was all those 25th men who barely clung to a roster; there's where the PEDs REALLY benefited people, not the big names.   There's a massive difference, in terms of money and growth potential between AAA and the Big Show.   I've got a friend whose son bops back and forth between the majors and the minors, and I have zero doubt that if the difference between the two was a PED, he'd take it in a heartbeat without an ounce of sorrow or regret. 

[Samsara]

Folks can make all the arguments they want. It was pretty obvious that the homerun numbers were due to players artificially enhancing themselves with steroids. Yes, people can work out and get bigger -- all athletes who take their jobs seriously, particularly football players and MLB players whose job it is to drive in runs, do. But the "jump" by some of the best players in the game, DURING THE AGES WHERE EVERYONE DECLINES is unmistakable. Father Time is undefeated. They cheated - the game, themselves, the fans. Period.

What we witnessed last night was pure (as far as I or anyone else knows) greatness. In a year where the league also stopped "juicing" the baseballs, here comes Judge in his prime, swatting 62 homeruns and taking the AL and Yankees record. All based on hard work. Note - Judge is not noticeably bigger from age 24 to age 30. But he WORKED, and learned how to use his gifts. But, at age 36, 37, he will decline severely, as all athletes do, whereas guys like Bonds were having career years. 

Baseball may not recognize it, but it's clear as day to me. Aaron Judge is MLB's all-time single season HR King. Debate all you want. But in my mind, and the minds of many, many others, justice was served on October 4, 2022.

p.s. I loved the 1998 season. I felt betrayed by it later.

[Lonk]

Samsara, I'm not criticizing your point, which I agree with by the way, but would you change your mind about Judge if in 5 years one of the supplements he uses today is banned? Most athletes nowadays have a very strict diet, which includes supplements that were not available in the 90's. What if MLB decides to ban some of that in 5 years and we find out that Judge was using it in 2022?

[Samsara]

Trying to paint me into a corner, I see. I'm not falling for it. 

For me, it's a case-by-case thing. It's also based on a gut feeling and evidence of why an athlete chooses to do what he or she does.

For example, I totally believe Andy Pettitte when he says that he took HGH for a few days, then felt guilty and didn't touch it again. He was hurt, and was trying to rehab and get better. Then his morals kicked in, and he never touched it again. I believe Andy Pettitte. And for me, he gets a pass. But a guy like Jason Giambi? No pass at all. My gut says - he just wanted a big pay day, and then kept going. Same with Roger Clemens. Going more modern...Fernando Tatis, Jr. Come on with his bullshit. He knew what he was doing.

So for me, it's what's the situation, what's the evidence, and what's the motivator. I am not sure of the language that prohibits HGH and steroid use these days. But I am sure it is very specific. And if it is violated, as it was with Tatis Jr., then it depends on a variety of situational questions for me to even believe an individual. But bottom line - professional athletes know what goes into their bodies. And the absolutely know what's illegal and what's not. Feigning innocence is bullshit, IMO.

[TAC]

I like Pettite. I do, and he seems like a stand up guy, but I don't believe it was a one time thing. He was too close with Clemens. I think he got busted, and I also believe he backed off the juice immediately because he truly didn't want to be associated with it.

[cramx3]

I like Pettite. I do, and he seems like a stand up guy, but I don't believe it was a one time thing. He was too close with Clemens. I think he got busted, and I also believe he backed off the juice immediately because he truly didn't want to be associated with it.

Yeah, I don't believe him either.  I don't think he was as big of a user as others, but the 1 time thing just smells like BS to me.  But he did generally get a pass.  Maybe more so because he was like-able unlike most of the other juicers.  Roid rage is a real thing too. 

[Samsara]

And I can understand people not believing him. I just happen to. He had no reason to even cop to it. He was never outed, IIRC. He just announced it, and explained what he did and why. He never had to. He could have just stayed silent and no one would have known. (Again, if my memory is right on this.) So that's why I give him the benefit of the doubt.

This thread got heated at times. I just want to say I completely respect all of your opinions. But I still stand by mine. No matter what, hell of a season by #99. One for the ages.

[King Postwhore]

What Pettite did was smart. Admit culpability,  say only once and you are forgiven. Take the Clemens, Palmeiro way and there's always doubt.