2022 NFL Pick'em

[Dave_Manchester]

Big thanks to the Jets for bailing me out of that stupid London game. 

Guessing you're no fan of stupid German games now either 

[El Barto]

Nope. But TB12 bailed me out of this one, too. SEA was a unanimous pick in my money league.

After the first one I went through and pre-picked all early/Sat games. Apparently I missed that one.

[ProfessorPeart]

Terrible, horrible week and I still managed to move up. Just dumb luck. Even after agreeing with Dave, I let Hoodie Jr. and the Raiders burn me in what should have been a gimme for them.

[faizoff]

This week has my lowest ever score. Some I should have followed my gut instincts on.

[DragonAttack]

My incorrect picks last week
Atlanta   vs   @Carolina     Incorrect   Car 25, Atl 15
@Tampa Bay   vs   Seattle   Incorrect   TB 21, Sea 16
@Buffalo   vs   Minnesota     Incorrect   Min 33, Buf 30
@Chicago   vs   Detroit   Incorrect   Det 31, Chi 30
@Tennessee   vs   Denver   
@Kansas City   vs   Jacksonville   
@Miami   vs   Cleveland   
@New York (NYG)   vs   Houston   
New Orleans   vs   @Pittsburgh   
@Las Vegas   vs   Indianapolis   Incorrect   Ind 25, LV 20
Dallas   vs   @Green Bay   Incorrect   GB 31, Dal 28
@Los Angeles (LAR)   vs   Arizona   Incorrect   Ari 27, LAR 17
@San Francisco   vs   Los Angeles (LAC)   
@Philadelphia   vs   Washington   Incorrect   Was 32, Phi 21

The Dallas loss was historic.  The Lions comeback was shocking, same with the Bills blowing their big lead.  The trends and matchups of others...
there wasn't a bad pick in that bunch......just a lot of wrong ones

I'd rather lose ground with eleven correct picks instead of just six   though I remained eight games behind the leader

[Stadler]

I CHANGED MY PICKS, AGAINST EVERYTHING I HOLD DEAR.

Chicago and Minnesota.  Two losses.  Dammit.

[Dave_Manchester]

Going into week 12 it's great to see nobody has so far stopped playing. This is something like my 4th year of playing this game and usually by now there have been 2 or 3 DNFs. Good going everyone.

[ProfessorPeart]

Dave, you jinxed us. hef missed all of his Turkey Day picks.

[faizoff]

It's going to be a blood bath for my picks this week.

[Dublagent66]

Dave, you jinxed us. hef missed all of his Turkey Day picks.

He missed a lot more than that.

[hefdaddy42]

Goddammit, I forgot all about this.

[faizoff]

Damnit I missed tonight's game.

[Cool Chris]

It's week 14 and the top 10 are within 7 points. Is this normal?

[Dave_Manchester]

Note to self: if, during some future game, the Raiders are up 45-0 at halftime and the opposition have lost 75% of their playing staff to injury, still do NOT back Vegas to win. Even if the opposition are reduced to playing the lady who cuts the halftime oranges at quarterback...do NOT back the fucking Raiders.

When will I ever, ever learn?

[Stadler]

Note to self: if, during some future game, the Raiders are up 45-0 at halftime and the opposition have lost 75% of their playing staff to injury, still do NOT back Vegas to win. Even if the opposition are reduced to playing the lady who cuts the halftime oranges at quarterback...do NOT back the fucking Raiders.

When will I ever, ever learn?

I think we all were drinking the Kool-Aid on that one.  Though to be fair, the Rams don't do that without Baker Mayfield.  Wolford was not doing what we saw on the field.

[faizoff]

Damnit I missed tonight's game.

And I screwed myself over by making all the selections but not clicking save at the end on Thursday. Great.

[Dublagent66]

Damn dude, that sucks.  You actually dodged a bullet on TNF cause we all lost that point, but then...

[El Barto]

Not that it makes much difference at this point, but once again I failed to hit save after a pick and once again it cost me a game. Between Saturday games, fucking London games, and my own foolishness I've certainly handicapped myself quite a bit this year.

[T-ski]

I’ve missed every upset pick I’ve made over the last few weeks and have taken myself out of contention.

Double Agent crushed it this week and has separated himself from the field.

[ProfessorPeart]

Am I the only one that cannot pick the Saturday games for Week 18? Just shows 2 greyed out slots at the top with no teams.

[El Barto]

Am I the only one that cannot pick the Saturday games for Week 18? Just shows 2 greyed out slots at the top with no teams.

I suspect it's because of the postponement. It doesn't have any effect on this weekend's games, but anytime the schedule turns into something it shouldn't the Yahoo site turns all funky. In this case it doesn't show W17 as having been completed (because it hasn't), and that's likely screwing things up for them. For what it's worth I've seen this happen a few times with Yahoo and not once has it been a problem come crunch time. They'll get it worked out.

[KevShmev]

Yep, the two Saturday games are greyed out for me as well right now.  Not like I have a chance to finish with the best record anyway.

[ProfessorPeart]

Yep, the two Saturday games are greyed out for me as well right now.  Not like I have a chance to finish with the best record anyway.

Yeah, same. It's over for me too. If there is one pet peeve I have with fantasy, it is deserters so I will play until the end. That stuff drove me nuts when I was in regular NFL fantasy leagues. Giving people easy wins by not setting a lineup. This is obviously different, but I play until the end.

[faizoff]

Not that it makes much difference at this point, but once again I failed to hit save after a pick and once again it cost me a game. Between Saturday games, fucking London games, and my own foolishness I've certainly handicapped myself quite a bit this year.

The one week I did the same screwed me over. Plus I can't believe how I was in the lead for quite a while. Oh well next season maybe.

[El Barto]

Just a heads up, the Sat picks are available to select, but I wouldn't put much trust in the platform right now. No odds have been assigned, so all home teams are shown as favourites, and I'm not sure how that will resolve itself. If you're the sort to make your picks early you should probably plan on double checking everything Saturday morning. 

[ProfessorPeart]

Seems all sorted now. I kind of wish they didn't bother with favorites. Makes me get too much into my head. I would prefer to just pick them without knowing, but that's me.

[DragonAttack]

Congrats to Aagent66 for winning the regular season title. Wish I could go back for each week’s standings, but a quick glance
shows you were 5-6 games back after two weeks and about the same weeks later.

I was 8 GB and in 8th or 9th place after eight weeks, but kept slogging away without trying wild picks, and am quite proud of my year.  I think I was 8th last year, 8 GB.  Still, less than half a game per week on average from having the lead, and better than some of the Baltimore Sun sports writers.  Pretty good, considering I make all my picks by noon Thursday (except for the Lions-Bills T'giving day game )

Now comes my kryptonite.  I’ve been abysmal in the playoffs the last three years.

1   AAgent66           176-93-3
2   Dave                  175-94-3
3   DragonAttack      170-99-3
     Stadler               170-99-3
5   T-ski’s Pick-ski’s  169-100-3
6   ProfessorPeart    166-103-3
7   Coolio Chris        165-104-3
8   Admiral Barto     164-105-3
9   D.o.C                 163-106-3
10 KevShmev          160-109-3
11 faizoff                159-110-3
12 axeman9182      130-139-3
(completed week 15)
13 hefdaddy42          91-178-3
(completed week 11)

[Dublagent66]

Thank you sir.   Definitely scratched and clawed my way from the bottom.  Playoffs should be interesting.  Good luck to everyone. 

[ProfessorPeart]

Dave and Double A tied with just the Superb Owl left to go.

If Dave wins, I think we can all safely say that the Russians interfered in the league and we can throw out the results.

 

[El Barto]

Dave and Double A tied with just the Superb Owl left to go.

If Dave wins, I think we can all safely say that the Russians interfered in the league and we can throw out the results.

 

Damn, hadn't been paying attention. Tie breakers will be coming into play. Second year in a row.

Parity is becoming more and more real. The number of games I've been really confident about has dwindled to about nothing. Seems like as often or not it's a real crapshoot.

[Stadler]

Dave and Double A tied with just the Superb Owl left to go.

If Dave wins, I think we can all safely say that the Russians interfered in the league and we can throw out the results.

 

Damn, hadn't been paying attention. Tie breakers will be coming into play. Second year in a row.

Parity is becoming more and more real. The number of games I've been really confident about has dwindled to about nothing. Seems like as often or not it's a real crapshoot.

That's how I felt for most of the season.

I say this with love and respect, but I can't believe I'm going to lose an American football pick'em to a Brit national who lives in Moscow! (I know it's not Moscow, but it's funnier that way).

[El Barto]

Alrighty, then. For the second year in a row we have to incorporate tie-breaking procedures. For the first time they're likely to be necessary.

Straight win/loss is king here. If one picks Phili and the other KC, one will win and that's that. Only if they both pick the same team, resulting in an overall tie per the Yahoo site, then we go on to the next step. Typically second in line is a pick against the spread. However, the line is only 1.5 right now. Incorporating that would really be more about betting strategy than football, so that's out for this year. My inclination is rather to go with Over/Under, next. If that doesn't resolve the matter, we'll go with predicted score. DA66 and Dave will need to PM me their predictions. Currently O/U is set at 50.5.

The O/U primer is as follows. The folks in Vegas have set 50.5 as the most likely total points scored. People can bet that it'll be a higher scoring game or a lower scoring game. So the participants here will simply tell me if the total score will be over 50.5 or under 50.5.

As for the predicted points, and I suspect it may well come to this, I'm not entirely sure how this should work. My inclination would be to go with margin of victory first. For example: one picks 27-23 and the other picks 27-7. Margins of victory are therefore 4 and 20 respectively. Last year's super bowl ended 23-20, so in this case 4 would have won. After that, whoever's closest to the winning team's score, and finally whoever's closest to the losing team's score.

By all means, anybody that's not involved in this chime in with suggestions or problems with my approach.

[DragonAttack]

The most simple, straight forward way is for each to pick the total points for the game.  If they both are correct or incorrect on their picks....whoever is the closest, without going over, is the winner. 

If they both pick the same total.....well.....co-champions aren't so bad IMO.    Or, have the next tie breaker choosing the winning team's score. 

Kudo to both heading to the champeenship.

Me, I could tie Stadler for 3rd depending on his pick, or no worse than a tie for 4th.  I'll take it.

[Dave_Manchester]

Just popping in to say I'll go along with whatever's decided for the tie-break.

[KevShmev]

Jut popping in to say I am humbled by where I am finished and don't give a damn about tiebreakers at this point.