NHL 2022-2023: FA July 13th - LET IT BEGIN

[pg1067]

Can I just say that I’m amazed at how shockingly fast things can go from “a dogfight for first” to “might not even get an 8 seed” in the final 15-20 games?

The gap between the 4th and 5th place teams in the Pacific and Central is relatively large.  The likelihood that either Calgary or Nashville moves up is pretty slim (although Nashville has a bunch of games in hand).  Absent a big collapse, I think it's a matter of positioning from here on out.

[SchecterShredder]

Can I just say that I’m amazed at how shockingly fast things can go from “a dogfight for first” to “might not even get an 8 seed” in the final 15-20 games?

The gap between the 4th and 5th place teams in the Pacific and Central is relatively large.  The likelihood that either Calgary or Nashville moves up is pretty slim (although Nashville has a bunch of games in hand).  Absent a big collapse, I think it's a matter of positioning from here on out.

Agreed. Anything can still happen, but I think the top 8 are basically set. I'm surprised at how much Vegas has surged over the last 20 or so games. They look like a team that really wants to win the conference. They'll be a force in the playoffs

[jingle.boy]

The East playoff situation seems to be starting to solidify as well.  FLA/Ott/Buf are sill in the hunt, and the Caps aren't totally out of it either, but the Isles and Pens have done an admirable job at keeping them all at bay (Buff and Ott have had a few bad runs of games that have hurt their push).

Could be just three things in question
2-3 seeding in Atlantic
1-2 seeding in Metro
7-8 seeding for WC, and who's going to be the sacrificial lamb to Boston

[pg1067]

Hard for me to say about the east, but it seems like:

ATLANTIC
1. Boston
2/3. Toronto/TBL

METRO
1/2. Carolina/NJD
3. NYR

WC. Pittsburgh/NYI/Florida

Florida has a game in hand on the Islanders, and Pittsburgh's in the best position with a 5 point lead and a game in hand on Florida and two on the Islanders.


CENTRAL
1-3. Dallas/Minn./Colorado

PACIFIC
1/2. VGK/Kings
3/4. Seattle/Edmonton

WC:  Seattle/Edmonton/Winnipeg

Only 8 points separate Dallas from Winnipeg.  Colorado is 7 points behind Dallas but has two games in hand on the other three top teams, so I think the 1-3 spots are really up for grabs.  Calgary and Nashville are still in the hunt, and Nashville in particular is 7-2-1 in its last 10.

And I'm sure a week from now, everything will be bass ackwards.

[Stadler]

What do you all think of Dallas' chances over all?  Are they a Cup contender?

[pg1067]

What do you all think of Dallas' chances over all?  Are they a Cup contender?

I haven't paid a ton of attention to the Stars other than their games against the Kings (the Stars are 1-2 in those games).  They're solid.

According to Draft Kings, these are the current odds to win the Cup (I have no idea what the numbers mean):

- Boston +400
- Colorado +700 (talk about a defending champ's boost not being justified by the current record)
- Carolina +750
- Toronto +900
- New Jersey +1200
- Edmonton +1300 (the McDavid boost at work here)
- NY Rangers +1300
- Tampa +1400
- Vegas +1400
- Dallas +1500
- Minnesota + 2000
- Kings +3000
- Winnipeg +3200
- Pittsburgh +3500
- Seattle +4000

Based on what I've seen, Boston, Carolina and New Jersey are well ahead of everyone else, with Vegas being annoyingly best in the west but absolutely beatable.  I would say there's probably a 90+% chance of Boston, Carolina or New Jersey winning the east, and any of those teams would be a huge favorite to beat anyone from the west.  That said, remember 2012?

[Anguyen92]

For the Stars?  They got some quality pieces that can set them for a good run.  Benn and Seguin (their top earners) looks to have regain some form after some rough seasons after the cup final run in 2020.  Joe Pavelski still looks like a solid player and leader, and much like Bergeron, age hasn't seemed to have affected his playing ability as drastically as other players.  Roope Hintz seems to be a player that probably falls under most people's radar, but he's a very valuable player that's locked in with the Stars for a while.  Jason Robertson looks to be the main, uhhhh, star for this Stars team.  Their top goal scorer and I root for the guy's success as well since he's half-Filipino and he grew up in Arcadia, California where him, his brother Nick whose in the Leafs system and their family were Kings fans growing up.

On top of that, they got Jake Oettinger as their goalie and he damn nearly stole a series last year against the Flames and another young solid defenseman, Miro Heiskanen, whose also here for the long run.  They also got Peter DeBoer as their head coach and he's usually good for either one conference finals or Stanley Cup finals run (like he did with Devils, Sharks, and Golden Knights) before things start going south in his approaches.  Stars could unnoticeably go on a deep run with this group.

[Stadler]

I saw them handle the Avalanche in Dallas last week and was pretty impressed.  They didn't play as well against the Bruins last time (though Robertson is a beast; I just wonder how much "Pastrnak" he has in him).  Heiskanen looked really good, as did Jani Hakanpää.

[jingle.boy]

So... Carolina's path just got a little tougher, with Svechnikov out for the season. 

And the Avs lose Lehkonen as well - man they've been hit hard with injuries.

[TAC]

So... Carolina's path just got a little tougher, with Svechnikov out for the season. 

Ouch.

[KevShmev]

Can I just say that I’m amazed at how shockingly fast things can go from “a dogfight for first” to “might not even get an 8 seed” in the final 15-20 games?

I know having an NHL team is still kinda new to you , so I will give ya the lowdown: seeding and home ice doesn't really mean a whole lot once the NHL playoffs start. 

[jammindude]

Can I just say that I’m amazed at how shockingly fast things can go from “a dogfight for first” to “might not even get an 8 seed” in the final 15-20 games?

I know having an NHL team is still kinda new to you , so I will give ya the lowdown: seeding and home ice doesn't really mean a whole lot once the NHL playoffs start.

 

OK then. I guess I will stop worrying.

[SchecterShredder]

Can I just say that I’m amazed at how shockingly fast things can go from “a dogfight for first” to “might not even get an 8 seed” in the final 15-20 games?

I know having an NHL team is still kinda new to you , so I will give ya the lowdown: seeding and home ice doesn't really mean a whole lot once the NHL playoffs start.

Tell that to the team that lands Boston in the 1st round

[jingle.boy]

Can I just say that I’m amazed at how shockingly fast things can go from “a dogfight for first” to “might not even get an 8 seed” in the final 15-20 games?

I know having an NHL team is still kinda new to you , so I will give ya the lowdown: seeding and home ice doesn't really mean a whole lot once the NHL playoffs start.

Tell that to the team that lands Boston in the 1st round

Fun fact (per nhl.com article this morning):

Of the eight teams since 1995-96 to clinch a playoff berth in 68 games or fewer, two won the Stanley Cup: the 1998-99 Dallas Stars (63 games) and the 2001-02 Detroit Red Wings (66 games). The 1995-96 Red Wings, who clinched in 59 games (fewest since 1995-96), were among the six teams from that group who didn't win the Cup, losing the Western Conference Final.  The 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning, who share the regular season wins record with the 1995-96 Red Wings, clinched a playoff berth in 68 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs, so clinching early guarantees little.

[TAC]

For the record, the Bruins have hit a WALL!

[KevShmev]

Recent Cup winners:

2022 Avs: finished 2nd in points
2021 Lightning: finished tied for 8th in points
2020 Lightning: finished tied for 3rd in points
2019 Blues: finished tied for 10th in points
2018 Capitals: finished tied for 6th in points
2017 Penguins: finished 2nd in points
2016 Penguins: finished 4th in points
2015 Hawks: finished 7th in points
2014 Kings: finished tied for 9th in points
2013 Hawks: finished 1st in points
2012 Kings: finished 13th in points
2011 Bruins: finished tied for 7th in points

Moral of the story is that you can win the Cup these days from any seeding, you just have to get in.  The only caveat is that you can't win it if you play your home games in Toronto.

[jingle.boy]

For the record, the Bruins have hit a WALL!

One loss to the Blackhawks is not a wall.

Yet.

But, and I've been saying this for months, I have this nagging feeling (perhaps it's hope), that this year's Bruins smell a lot like the '19 Bolts, and last year's Panthers.  They've cruised thru the regular season, and routinely ended up on the right side of some very close games.  Sure, it's largely due to the coaching, skill, and execution... but there's also a measure of good fortune in that as well.  And when one crack starts to show, it can easily and quickly spread.  I'll never forget Cooper's quote after getting swept by CBJ - "We couldn't find our game. It's that clear. For six days in April, we couldn't find it,"  Their special teams sucked, Vasilevsky couldn't stop a beach ball, they ran into a hot goalie, and it all fell apart. 

It can happen to the best of teams.

The only caveat is that you can't win it if you play your home games in Toronto.

Jesus... right in the nads man.  What did I ever do to you? 

[KevShmev]

All in good fun.

I think Cooper is dressing up their sweep in 2019 to Columbus a bit. They were on their game in Game 1.  They had a 3-0 lead and then the Blue Jackets made a wild comeback and stole the game 4-3. The Lightning never recovered from that.  The team as a whole look glazed over that entire series after that.  Proof of how strong momentum can be in sports.

[TAC]

For the record, the Bruins have hit a WALL!

One loss to the Blackhawks is not a wall.

Yet.

Well, after sweeping their 4 game Western swing, they had 4 days off.

Since then, they lost to Edmonton (and played shitty)
Split a home and home with Detroit (and played shitty in both games)
Lost to Chicago (and played shitty)


Bergeron looks tired. Why is he not getting rest? There was no need for him to play B2B this weekend. Infact, the B's have B2Bs every weekend for the rest of the year pretty much.

Pasta has been a mess since he signed his contract.
Swayman has come back down to earth. Ullmark didn't have a great game last night, but was the only reason they beat Detroit on Saturday.

They miss Foligno and Hall.

[King Postwhore]

Agreed Tim.  There are BTB the rest of the way.  Rest Bergy and Krejci one game each of the BTB games.

[jingle.boy]

All in good fun.

I think Cooper is dressing up their sweep in 2019 to Columbus a bit. They were on their game in Game 1.  They had a 3-0 lead and then the Blue Jackets made a wild comeback and stole the game 4-3. The Lightning never recovered from that.  The team as a whole look glazed over that entire series after that.  Proof of how strong momentum can be in sports.

I think you and Coop both have a point.  Yes, partway thru the 1st (iirc), the Bolts looked like they were cruising just as they had been for the 82 games before that.  Then something clicked with Bobs, and he was a brick fucking wall.  They only scored 5 goals after that.  The Bolts were the bully of the NHL all season, they got punched back, and then crumbled like a cheap pair of pants.  You say they never recovered (you're right), but why did they never recover??  They got the yips, hadn't played any TRULY meaningful games in months, and couldn't pull it back together when it was needed most.  The aren't the first team to suffer that fate*, and they won't be the last.

*Florida last year was about 3 inches from losing Game 6 against the Caps in Round 1 (Caps barely missed an EN goal to ice that game).  If they don't tie and win that game in OT, and who knows what happens in Game 7.

[Stadler]

For the record, the Bruins have hit a WALL!

One loss to the Blackhawks is not a wall.

Yet.

Well, after sweeping their 4 game Western swing, they had 4 days off.

Since then, they lost to Edmonton (and played shitty)
Split a home and home with Detroit (and played shitty in both games)
Lost to Chicago (and played shitty)


Bergeron looks tired. Why is he not getting rest? There was no need for him to play B2B this weekend. Infact, the B's have B2Bs every weekend for the rest of the year pretty much.

Pasta has been a mess since he signed his contract.
Swayman has come back down to earth. Ullmark didn't have a great game last night, but was the only reason they beat Detroit on Saturday.

They miss Foligno and Hall.

Foligno.  He's the guy.  He has this knack for delivering a solid, hard-working shift exactly when they need it most. He's great in the locker room too.

I think Orlov was a good pickup, as was Hathaway.  I think Bertuzzi has sort of messed up the rhythm a bit.  I think they're getting too cute with the puck.  I've seen more turnovers between the blue lines in these last four games than in the first four months of the season.  Bergeron said it best: "we're cheating".  Instead of taking the body, playing the man, they're getting cute and trying to sweep the puck away.  And it's not working. 

And I've said it here before:  Pastrnak sucks.   He fanned on the penalty shot and he turns the puck over BADLY too many times a game.  I'd be happy to trade him for a 30 goal scorer with some size.   

[King Postwhore]

Right now the coach is experimenting with lines while he has the opportunity which seems to add to the poor play.

[jingle.boy]

Right now the coach is experimenting with lines while he has the opportunity which seems to add to the poor play.

Yeah, Keefe has been doing the same.  Since RoR's injury, he's been going with an 11-7 lineup.  Now is the time to experiment and tinker - not the middle of April.

[King Postwhore]

Right now the coach is experimenting with lines while he has the opportunity which seems to add to the poor play.

Yeah, Keefe has been doing the same.  Since RoR's injury, he's been going with an 11-7 lineup.  Now is the time to experiment and tinker - not the middle of April.

Makes sense.  I just hope they don't go flat going into the playoffs.

[KevShmev]

All in good fun.

I think Cooper is dressing up their sweep in 2019 to Columbus a bit. They were on their game in Game 1.  They had a 3-0 lead and then the Blue Jackets made a wild comeback and stole the game 4-3. The Lightning never recovered from that.  The team as a whole look glazed over that entire series after that.  Proof of how strong momentum can be in sports.

I think you and Coop both have a point.  Yes, partway thru the 1st (iirc), the Bolts looked like they were cruising just as they had been for the 82 games before that.  Then something clicked with Bobs, and he was a brick fucking wall.  They only scored 5 goals after that.  The Bolts were the bully of the NHL all season, they got punched back, and then crumbled like a cheap pair of pants.  You say they never recovered (you're right), but why did they never recover??  They got the yips, hadn't played any TRULY meaningful games in months, and couldn't pull it back together when it was needed most.  The aren't the first team to suffer that fate*, and they won't be the last.

*Florida last year was about 3 inches from losing Game 6 against the Caps in Round 1 (Caps barely missed an EN goal to ice that game).  If they don't tie and win that game in OT, and who knows what happens in Game 7.

It's amazing how games and series can turn on a dime in the SC playoffs.

I will use the 2019 Blues as an example (because it's the most ingrained in my head):

Game 5 of the 3rd round against the Sharks.  Series tied 2-2, and the Blues won Game 5 5-0 in San Jose.  And what is wild is that the Sharks hit the post literally in the first 10 seconds of the game.  If that goes in, who knows how the rest of the game goes.

Game 7 against the Bruins.  The Blues played like they didn't give a crap for the first 10-15 minutes of the game, but Binnington stood on his head and kept it at 0-0 until ROR scored on a wicked deflection and the game flipped; the Blues were a totally different team for the rest of the game.  I shudder to think how that game plays out if the Bruins get a goal or two early while the Blues were looking for ways to remove their heads from their asses.

[axeman90210]

^ That's how I felt about the Devils game last night even. I was worried about them coming out flat after winning their biggest game of the regular season against Carolina Sunday night. They came out looking great though, picked up an early 1-0 lead and hit a couple more posts in the first 10 minutes. Then their apparent second goal was overturned due to a (very questionable in my unbiased opinion ) goaltender interference call. That seemed to just suck the life out of them. They let Tampa score a SHG a few minutes later to tie the game at 1 and eventually lost 4-1.

[pg1067]

Recent Cup winners:

2022 Avs: finished 2nd in points
2021 Lightning: finished tied for 8th in points
2020 Lightning: finished tied for 3rd in points
2019 Blues: finished tied for 10th in points
2018 Capitals: finished tied for 6th in points
2017 Penguins: finished 2nd in points
2016 Penguins: finished 4th in points
2015 Hawks: finished 7th in points
2014 Kings: finished tied for 9th in points
2013 Hawks: finished 1st in points
2012 Kings: finished 13th in points
2011 Bruins: finished tied for 7th in points

Moral of the story is that you can win the Cup these days from any seeding, you just have to get in.  The only caveat is that you can't win it if you play your home games in Toronto.

Yup.  In the 37 year history of the President's Trophy (it was first awarded to the 1985-86 Oilers), only 8 of 36 winners have won the Stanley Cup, and only 2 President's Trophy winners have won the Cup over the last 20 years.

[Anguyen92]

That President's Trophy did turn out to be quite meaningless to achieve after the Bolts won it in 2019 and then got swept by the Blue Jackets in first round.  The trophy was also deemed more meaningless when the Bolts (who learned from that experience to better pace themselves in the regular season and not care as much to win regular season trophies) proceeded to swept the Florida Panthers in the 2nd round.  Funny thing about momentum.  If the Bolts lost game one against the Blue Jackets in the 2020 bubble after Korpisalo made like 80+ saves in the span of 8 periods, I don't think they would win the cup in the bubble that year.

That being said, the Bruins are a team in which most of the group knows what it takes to go deep and win playoff rounds, smooth and steady.  Sure, things look a bit rough in the last week, but they will be ready as they will be come playoffs.  That said, if they draw the Islanders, I don't know.  Sorokin could stonewall them out of the playoffs in round 1.  Could happen.  Ullmark could go from Vezina Candidate to swiss cheese if certain things happen.  Look at Markstrom.  That guy never really recovered from all of those goals he let in against the Oilers, last playoffs.

[jingle.boy]

Goaltending is such a fickle thing.  Campbell never recovered from being embarrassed in the All-Star Game last year.  I think being an All-Star goalie is a bloody curse.  No one can succeed in that situation - unless success is defined as only letting in 5 goals on 12 shots in 10 minutes.

[Stadler]

The beauty of the Bruins is that they arguably have two number one's in goal.  I get it; both could go cold, but look, this is why you play the games.  The B's have as good a shot as any to be "three out of nine" or whatever. 

[KevShmev]

New moral of the story: enjoy regular season wins!  I remember some of those years where Hitchcock was the Blues coach where I told several friends that I went to every game just assuming the Blues were gonna win. That is how good those teams were in Games 1-82. The playoffs were another matter, but stopping to smell the roses and enjoying regular season success is something we should all do, except for fans of the Red Wings and Blackhawks. Fans of those teams deserve to see their teams get thrashed regularly.

[Anguyen92]

Then all of a sudden, Quick (who had like the worst save % in the league) was traded twice and eventually landing on a team that has a better tight defense structure than the Kings did and it's no wonder he has won four games so far with a good save %.  People that doesn't watch West Coast games can be shocked about that, but I knew it was going to happen.  I just hate that it's keeping the Golden Knights staying on the course for 1st in the West.

[Stadler]

New moral of the story: enjoy regular season wins!  I remember some of those years where Hitchcock was the Blues coach where I told several friends that I went to every game just assuming the Blues were gonna win. That is how good those teams were in Games 1-82. The playoffs were another matter, but stopping to smell the roses and enjoying regular season success is something we should all do, except for fans of the Red Wings and Blackhawks. Fans of those teams deserve to see their teams get thrashed regularly.

You know, this is wisdom.  I'll certainly be disappointed if the B's don't go deep in the playoffs, but my step son and daughter and I have had so much fun this season, bonding over the team and the players.  We all went to the Winter Classic together, made some memories (my daughter almost got into a fight with the fiancé of one of the players) and had a great time.  My step son and I watch almost every game, and it's fun.  You can't buy that kind of atmosphere. 

[pg1067]

That President's Trophy did turn out to be quite meaningless to achieve after the Bolts won it in 2019 and then got swept by the Blue Jackets in first round.

Interestingly, the Pres Trophy winner has lost in the first round (although only once in a sweep) almost as many times as it has won the Cup (7 to 8).  The Canucks are the only team to have won multiple Pres Trophies but never win the Cup.

Then all of a sudden, Quick (who had like the worst save % in the league) was traded twice and eventually landing on a team that has a better tight defense structure than the Kings did and it's no wonder he has won four games so far with a good save %.  People that doesn't watch West Coast games can be shocked about that, but I knew it was going to happen.  I just hate that it's keeping the Golden Knights staying on the course for 1st in the West.

And, at the same time, the same Kings defense that played like poop in front of Quick has played well enough in front of Korpisalo for him to be undefeated since joining the Kings.  Part of me wants the Kings to face Vegas in the playoffs and part really doesn't.