2022 NFL Thread (Chiefs win Super Bowl 57)

[Stadler]

So now we’re supposed to be drafting QBs with no obvious physical skills but who we suspect “might” become great at reading defenses? Sure. Are they also going to have the greatest defensive mastermind of all time behind them? Because just half of that equation isn’t enough to win Super Bowls.

I'm not sure that's what I said.  I said that drafting the best athlete at the position doesn't translate, necessarily, into the ultimate goal, winning the Super Bowl.  I'm not prepared to say that the opposite is true or not. I would suggest you need at least a minimum amount of physical skills.  That Brady can't run doesn't mean he doesn't have physical skills.

[TAC]

Yeah, there's something to be said for recognition and decision making, especially at QB.

[Dream Team]

Also, just one issue I have with your post Stads, totally friendly argument here, but since Mahomes got the starting gig in 2018 he’s won a SB and Brady’s won 2. Oh the horror. Mahomes was a coin toss or Dee Ford being a millimeter offsides in 2018 from getting to a third and I’m sure he would have put up more than Goff’s 3 points. And he had 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship last year - so like Florio and Simms mentioned today, he was REAL close to 4 in a row.

[TAC]

Also, just one issue I have with your post Stads, totally friendly argument here, but since Mahomes got the starting gig in 2018 he’s won a SB and Brady’s won 2. Oh the horror. Mahomes was a coin toss or Dee Ford being a millimeter offsides in 2018 from getting to a third and I’m sure he would have put up more than Goff’s 3 points. And he had 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship last year - so like Florio and Simms mentioned today, he was REAL close to 4 in a row.

Then Brady was close to 10 in a row. I mean, at the end of the day, Mahomes won 1 in a row, and I don't say this to defend Brady. 6-3 is probably about right for his SB record. If Malcom Butler plays, the helmet catch, etc...

And KC is coming back down to earth, BTW.

[Stadler]

Also, just one issue I have with your post Stads, totally friendly argument here, but since Mahomes got the starting gig in 2018 he’s won a SB and Brady’s won 2. Oh the horror. Mahomes was a coin toss or Dee Ford being a millimeter offsides in 2018 from getting to a third and I’m sure he would have put up more than Goff’s 3 points. And he had 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship last year - so like Florio and Simms mentioned today, he was REAL close to 4 in a row.

Then Brady was close to 10 in a row. I mean, at the end of the day, Mahomes won 1 in a row, and I don't say this to defend Brady. 6-3 is probably about right for his SB record. If Malcom Butler plays, the helmet catch, etc...

And KC is coming back down to earth, BTW.

TAC's right on all counts. You can't just cherry-pick the almost's and the if's.   As my grandfather used to say, "wish in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first".  Or something like that.      End of the day, Ford was called offsides.  Can't go back and change that.  There were moments in that Eagles loss that had they gone the other way, we'd be talking 7-2.   

I said since about day one, you had to wait to see if the league caught up, and they did.   Andy Reid is a Hall of Fame coach, and Mahomes has the legs - literally and figuratively - to be a Hall of Fame QB.  We'll see how they adjust and adapt.

[King Postwhore]

And Ford's offsides wasn't an iffy call.  He was offsides. 

[KevShmev]

It is important to remember that many football games flip on one play, especially ones at the end of games. 

If Scott Norwood hits that FG, the Bills win the Super Bowl, and then who knows how the next three play out.

If Butler doesn't break on the ball and intercept the Wilson pass, the Seahawks win two in a row, and then who knows how their trajectory as a team plays out.

And while I do not agree that the league caught up to Mahomes and the Chiefs (they did make it to the AFCCG last year and barely lost), I do think their offense is gonna miss Tyreek Hill a lot.  Anyone just assuming that the Chiefs will just roll on like always and win that division again with easy is sorely mistaken.  The AFC West could literally finish in just about any order, and it should surprise no one.

[El Barto]

If Scott Norwood hits that FG, the Bills win the Super Bowl, and then who knows how the next three play out.

They still get their ass kicked roundly by the 92 and 93 Cowboys; two of the most talented football teams to come about.   

[KevShmev]

If Scott Norwood hits that FG, the Bills win the Super Bowl, and then who knows how the next three play out.

They still get their ass kicked roundly by the 92 and 93 Cowboys; two of the most talented football teams to come about.   

'92, probably, but I am not so sure about '93.  They didn't get their ass kicked in that one. They led 13-6 at half and were driving in the 2nd half when Thomas fumbled which was returned for a TD, and you could see the air completely come out of the Bills balloon. and it was Cowboys domination the rest of the way, but maybe if Norwood hits that FG and they have one in their pocket already, they would have had the "we can still do this" attitude when the first thing went wrong, as opposed to the whole team's body language screaming "here we go again."

[KevShmev]

Just for fun, I will spitball my predictions for each division and the playoffs (playoff teams bolded).

AFC East:
1 Buffalo
2 Miami
3 New England
4 NY Jets

AFC North:
1 Baltimore
2 Pittsburgh
3 Cincinnati
4 Cleveland

AFC South:
1 Indianapolis
2 Tennessee
3 Jacksonville
4 Houston

AFC West:
1 Denver
2 LA Chargers
3 Kansas City
4 Las Vegas

NFC East:
1 Philadelphia
2 Dallas
3 Washington
4 NY Giants

NFC North:
1 Green Bay
2 Minnesota
3 Detroit
4 Chicago

NFC South:
1 Tampa Bay
2 New Orleans
3 Carolina
4 Atlanta

NFC West:
1 Arizona
2 LA Rams
3 San Francisco
4 Seattle

Playoffs
1st round:
Byes to TB and Buffalo (the 1 seeds)
(2) GB over (7) NO
(3) Arizona over (6) Dallas
(5) LA Rams over (4) Philadelphia

(2) Baltimore over (7) Pittsburgh
(6) Kansas City over (3) Indianapolis
(4) Denver over (5) LA Chargers

2nd round:
(5) LA Rams over (1) Tampa Bay
(2) GB over (3) Arizona
(1) Buffalo over (6) Kansas City
(4) Denver over (2) Baltimore

Conference championship:
(2) GB over (5) LA Rams
(1) Buffalo over (4) Denver

Super Bowl:
Buffalo over GB

[Skeever]

I'll bite:

AFC East:
1 Buffalo
2 NY Jets
3 Miami
4 New England

AFC North:
1 Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore
3 Cincinnati
4 Cleveland

AFC South:
1 Indianapolis
2 Jacksonville
3 Tennessee
4 Houston

AFC West:
1 LA Chargers
2 Kansas City
3 Las Vegas
4 Denver

NFC East:
1 Philadelphia
2 Washington
3 Dallas
4 NY Giants

NFC North:
1 Green Bay
2 Minnesota
3 Detroit
4 Chicago

NFC South:
1 Tampa Bay
2 New Orleans
3 Carolina
4 Atlanta

NFC West:
1 LA Rams
2 Arizona
3 Seattle
4 San Francisco

[Stadler]

Already some disturbing trends:  the lack of respect for Vegas and the Patriots (the latter not unfounded, mind you) and the respect for Tampa Bay and Philadelphia (both of which I think might be misplaced). 

[KevShmev]

Someone has to finish last in the AFC West.  Notice that I had the AFC West teams as the 4, 5 and 6 seeds, as I think it will be similar to last year's NFC West where every team is good enough to where it will be hard for any to win enough games to secure one of the top seeds.  Plus, the Raiders won a ton of super close games last year (6-1 in games decided by 3 points or less or in OT), and that often does not play out the same way two years in a row, so all it takes is losing a few of those close games they won last year and they are back down to 8 wins. 

All indications are that Mac Jones has had a brutal summer, and he wasn't exactly a world beater last year.  Feels like the Patriots have 9-8 or 8-9 written all over them (5-12 if a normal team, but BB will get them 3-4 extra wins).

The Bucs have a pretty easy schedule, so predicting them as a top seed was pretty easy for me.

[Skeever]

If the Pats are good this year, I will never pay attention to the offseason again. It will all be for nothing 

[El Barto]

Someone has to finish last in the AFC West.  Notice that I had the AFC West teams as the 4, 5 and 6 seeds, as I think it will be similar to last year's NFC West where every team is good enough to where it will be hard for any to win enough games to secure one of the top seeds.  Plus, the Raiders won a ton of super close games last year (6-1 in games decided by 3 points or less or in OT), and that often does not play out the same way two years in a row, so all it takes is losing a few of those close games they won last year and they are back down to 8 wins. 

All indications are that Mac Jones has had a brutal summer, and he wasn't exactly a world beater last year.  Feels like the Patriots have 9-8 or 8-9 written all over them (5-12 if a normal team, but BB will get them 3-4 extra wins).

The Bucs have a pretty easy schedule, so predicting them as a top seed was pretty easy for me.

By all accounts the brutality has come from the O-line rather than McCorkle. Traditionally that runs through the first few weeks of the season and then the line comes together. Seems to be an annual occurrence.

I'm not sure I totally get changing the offensive scheme right now. For a stretch they were an excellent team last year, only falling apart [spectacularly] after the bye. My hunch is that they're getting an early start for next year's O coordinator Bill O'Brien. Don't know if this will be a transitional year for them or not--hard to say. I do think that from a talent standpoint they're probably better than they were last year. They're not going to beat up on Buffalo, and their schedule is pretty tough, but I'd expect them to do about the same as last year (minus the wind game).

[TAC]

All indications are that Mac Jones has had a brutal summer, and he wasn't exactly a world beater last year.  Feels like the Patriots have 9-8 or 8-9 written all over them (5-12 if a normal team, but BB will get them 3-4 extra wins).

It's less about Mac than it is about the shitshow going on around him. They're changing the offence on him, and it seems the O-Line is really struggling with it, though I don't think Mac is still completely on board with the changes. It's also being installed by a couple of buffoons that the locker room seems to have no belief in, including Mac.

[El Barto]

All indications are that Mac Jones has had a brutal summer, and he wasn't exactly a world beater last year.  Feels like the Patriots have 9-8 or 8-9 written all over them (5-12 if a normal team, but BB will get them 3-4 extra wins).

It's less about Mac than it is about the shitshow going on around him. They're changing the offence on him, and it seems the O-Line is really struggling with it, though I don't think Mac is still completely on board with the changes. It's also being installed by a couple of buffoons that the locker room seems to have no belief in, including Mac.

Matt Patricia is hardly a buffoon. The man's a rocket scientist, FFS. In any case, I think they're just setting things up for O'Brien in 2023. Mac's a smart kid. He'll survive it.

[King Postwhore]

Seems like the o line and Jones are struggling to pick up the new offense. My issue is, you wanted this new style, hire a offensive coordinator that knows it,and has implemented it before.

Not a guy who hasn't been on the offensive side of the ball that much. 

[KevShmev]

All indications are that Mac Jones has had a brutal summer, and he wasn't exactly a world beater last year.  Feels like the Patriots have 9-8 or 8-9 written all over them (5-12 if a normal team, but BB will get them 3-4 extra wins).

It's less about Mac than it is about the shitshow going on around him. They're changing the offence on him, and it seems the O-Line is really struggling with it, though I don't think Mac is still completely on board with the changes. It's also being installed by a couple of buffoons that the locker room seems to have no belief in, including Mac.

Matt Patricia is hardly a buffoon. The man's a rocket scientist, FFS. In any case, I think they're just setting things up for O'Brien in 2023. Mac's a smart kid. He'll survive it.

Okay, but his smarts didn't prevent him from being a terrible head coach in Detroit, and he has zero experience calling plays on offense.  Feels like Belichick wanted to stay in-house with play calling on offense once McDaniels went to Vegas.

[TAC]

All indications are that Mac Jones has had a brutal summer, and he wasn't exactly a world beater last year.  Feels like the Patriots have 9-8 or 8-9 written all over them (5-12 if a normal team, but BB will get them 3-4 extra wins).

It's less about Mac than it is about the shitshow going on around him. They're changing the offence on him, and it seems the O-Line is really struggling with it, though I don't think Mac is still completely on board with the changes. It's also being installed by a couple of buffoons that the locker room seems to have no belief in, including Mac.

Matt Patricia is hardly a buffoon. The man's a rocket scientist, FFS. In any case, I think they're just setting things up for O'Brien in 2023. Mac's a smart kid. He'll survive it.

Okay, but his smarts didn't prevent him from being a terrible head coach in Detroit, and he has zero experience calling plays on offense.  Feels like Belichick wanted to stay in-house with play calling on offense once McDaniels went to Vegas.

Not to mention that he's being paid by the Lions, and Bill doesn't have to hire an actual OC, which of course means more money in his pocket.

Bart could be right about Bill O'B. He was committed to Alabama for this year. But honestly, I have no idea what this looks like next year.

[El Barto]

All indications are that Mac Jones has had a brutal summer, and he wasn't exactly a world beater last year.  Feels like the Patriots have 9-8 or 8-9 written all over them (5-12 if a normal team, but BB will get them 3-4 extra wins).

It's less about Mac than it is about the shitshow going on around him. They're changing the offence on him, and it seems the O-Line is really struggling with it, though I don't think Mac is still completely on board with the changes. It's also being installed by a couple of buffoons that the locker room seems to have no belief in, including Mac.

Matt Patricia is hardly a buffoon. The man's a rocket scientist, FFS. In any case, I think they're just setting things up for O'Brien in 2023. Mac's a smart kid. He'll survive it.

Okay, but his smarts didn't prevent him from being a terrible head coach in Detroit, and he has zero experience calling plays on offense.  Feels like Belichick wanted to stay in-house with play calling on offense once McDaniels went to Vegas.

Not to mention that he's being paid by the Lions, and Bill doesn't have to hire an actual OC, which of course means more money in his pocket.

Bart could be right about Bill O'B. He was committed to Alabama for this year. But honestly, I have no idea what this looks like next year.

As I understand it BOB wanted to jump ship this year, and Bill wouldn't have it out of respect for Saban. Next year Sabab will return the favor.

I have no idea why people would think money would factor into it. Bill's not signing the check, and Kraft certainly has no problem spending money to win. If Bill though there were an available OC that could do what he wanted he'd be there right now.

Lastly, I'm not entirely sure why we think coordinators can only work one side of the ball. MP has an impressive understanding of defenses. It sure seems like that would make him qualified to exploit them. Somebody, possibly Edelman, said essentially the same thing a few weeks ago. Part of what's made the Patriots coaching staff so good is that they work all over the team. Somebody who coaches receivers is in a unique position to transition to coaching DBs. Bill's never been one to roll with the conventional wisdom, and while I have no idea if this will work out, I think he's giving a shot to something unconventional that seems perfectly workable. Let's also keep in mind that Belichick has called offensive plays before, and he's done so from his vantage point as a defensive mastermind.

[TAC]

As I understand it BOB wanted to jump ship this year, and Bill wouldn't have it out of respect for Saban. Next year Saban will return the favor.

I have no idea why people would think money would factor into it. Bill's not signing the check, and Kraft certainly has no problem spending money to win. If Bill though there were an available OC that could do what he wanted he'd be there right now.

I'm not exactly sure how it went down with Bill O'B. Next year Saban won't be returning any favors because O'B's contract will be up.

The understanding is that there's a Player's Budget and a Coaches Budget (which Bill controls the pie). So Bill keeps whatever is left over after the other coaches are paid. Bill has made a living of bringing back coaches and not giving them a title so the other team is on the hook for their salary.
Word on the street is that Josh's contract after they pulled him off the plane was actually being paid by Kraft, outside of the Coaches Budget, and with that, Bill felt a little loss of control over Josh.

[King Postwhore]

For for a 1st time OC to implement a new offensive system is asking a lot.

[Stadler]

I don't see Matt Patricia as the problem.   I don't see why a defensive mind can't be a good offensive mind; I also am probably the leading proponent here of that idea that just because you are a world class O/ or D/ Coordinator doesn't mean you will be a world class head coach (and vice versa).  They are different skillsets; not that some people don't have both skillsets, but they are not the same. 

Maybe I'm spoiled after 20 years of this, but other than not having "Brady" (in quotes to mean not just the player, but all that entails) I don't see much difference this year from past, and in fact, I'm thrilled I have someone smart like Mac instead of CÅm~@#N3w+0n under center.

[King Postwhore]

I don't see Matt Patricia as the problem.   I don't see why a defensive mind can't be a good offensive mind; I also am probably the leading proponent here of that idea that just because you are a world class O/ or D/ Coordinator doesn't mean you will be a world class head coach (and vice versa).  They are different skillsets; not that some people don't have both skillsets, but they are not the same. 

Maybe I'm spoiled after 20 years of this, but other than not having "Brady" (in quotes to mean not just the player, but all that entails) I don't see much difference this year from past, and in fact, I'm thrilled I have someone smart like Mac instead of CÅm~@#N3w+0n under center.

You have a QB 1 year into being acclimated.  Losses his OC.  How many high draft picks QB's have stunted their growth from changes early on their career?  Most.  If I'm changing the system all together I'd want an OC that has the grasp of implementing it before.  Not a DC who hasn't been on the offensive side of the ball in over a decade and has never had this role.

I don't doubt over time Patricia will get it, but it's a bad combo that might stunt a young QB's growth.   You want a second year QB to grow, not take a step back.

[hefdaddy42]

Baker Mayfield has looked surprisingly good in the preseason.  Perhaps the Panthers will have a shot at not quite making the playoffs, which is a sight better than nowhere close to making the playoffs.

[Stadler]

I don't see Matt Patricia as the problem.   I don't see why a defensive mind can't be a good offensive mind; I also am probably the leading proponent here of that idea that just because you are a world class O/ or D/ Coordinator doesn't mean you will be a world class head coach (and vice versa).  They are different skillsets; not that some people don't have both skillsets, but they are not the same. 

Maybe I'm spoiled after 20 years of this, but other than not having "Brady" (in quotes to mean not just the player, but all that entails) I don't see much difference this year from past, and in fact, I'm thrilled I have someone smart like Mac instead of CÅm~@#N3w+0n under center.

You have a QB 1 year into being acclimated.  Losses his OC.  How many high draft picks QB's have stunted their growth from changes early on their career?  Most.  If I'm changing the system all together I'd want an OC that has the grasp of implementing it before.  Not a DC who hasn't been on the offensive side of the ball in over a decade and has never had this role.

I don't doubt over time Patricia will get it, but it's a bad combo that might stunt a young QB's growth.   You want a second year QB to grow, not take a step back.

Not an unfair position.  I get that.  But that's not Patricia's problem that's Belichick's.  He's responsible for the overall direction of the team.

[King Postwhore]

I think you know I've expressed this issue with BB.  Instead of him managing his team, being able to focus on the other coach in critical situations, (like the Seahawks SB) he now has to focus on the offensive side of the ball.  Nevermind, he took over the D last year mid season.  He's spreading himself too thin.

[KevShmev]

Looks like Jimmy G is staying with the 49ers for a reduced price.  Smart move, as Lance continues to struggle mightily according to reports.  My pick of the 49ers the other day as a non-playoff team was based off Lance starting all season, but if he sucks and they go to Jimmy soon enough, they should be a playoff team.

[El Barto]

Looks like Jimmy G is staying with the 49ers for a reduced price.  Smart move, as Lance continues to struggle mightily according to reports.  My pick of the 49ers the other day as a non-playoff team was based off Lance starting all season, but if he sucks and they go to Jimmy soon enough, they should be a playoff team.

They'd have been fools to cut him loose. Whatever they could have gotten in exchange for him would have been a fraction of the value he brings to the Niners in his current role. Plus, if Lance magically turns out to be great they could get better value for him once a starter or two goes down in the regular season.

[TAC]

Looks like Jimmy G is staying with the 49ers for a reduced price.  Smart move, as Lance continues to struggle mightily according to reports.  My pick of the 49ers the other day as a non-playoff team was based off Lance starting all season, but if he sucks and they go to Jimmy soon enough, they should be a playoff team.

They'd have been fools to cut him loose. Whatever they could have gotten in exchange for him would have been a fraction of the value he brings to the Niners in his current role. Plus, if Lance magically turns out to be great they could get better value for him once a starter or two goes down in the regular season.

Sounds like Jimmy has a No Trade clause, so Jimmy would have to waive it before they could trade him.

[bosk1]

Also, just one issue I have with your post Stads, totally friendly argument here, but since Mahomes got the starting gig in 2018 he’s won a SB and Brady’s won 2. Oh the horror. Mahomes was a coin toss or Dee Ford being a millimeter offsides in 2018 from getting to a third and I’m sure he would have put up more than Goff’s 3 points. And he had 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship last year - so like Florio and Simms mentioned today, he was REAL close to 4 in a row.

Then Brady was close to 10 in a row. I mean, at the end of the day, Mahomes won 1 in a row, and I don't say this to defend Brady. 6-3 is probably about right for his SB record. If Malcom Butler plays, the helmet catch, etc...

And KC is coming back down to earth, BTW.

Not to mention that the "what if"s could just as easily go the other way and Mahomes could VERY easily have none.  We could argue about what could have been all day long, but the reality is, he won 1.  OK, great.  Not sure what else we can say about that that really proves anything. 

[Dream Team]

Also, just one issue I have with your post Stads, totally friendly argument here, but since Mahomes got the starting gig in 2018 he’s won a SB and Brady’s won 2. Oh the horror. Mahomes was a coin toss or Dee Ford being a millimeter offsides in 2018 from getting to a third and I’m sure he would have put up more than Goff’s 3 points. And he had 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship last year - so like Florio and Simms mentioned today, he was REAL close to 4 in a row.

Then Brady was close to 10 in a row. I mean, at the end of the day, Mahomes won 1 in a row, and I don't say this to defend Brady. 6-3 is probably about right for his SB record. If Malcom Butler plays, the helmet catch, etc...

And KC is coming back down to earth, BTW.

Funny, all the NFL analysts seem to think they’ll be better than ever. We’ll see. Of course, it goes without saying that Brady has never had to play in a division as tough as the AFC West. All that stuff matters.

[KevShmev]

I am curious to see how much football I watch this year now that I have retired from playing fantasy football.  I have said for years that the product had gotten worse and that FF was the main reason I still watched so much, and I guess now I will find out for sure.

[TAC]

I am curious to see how much football I watch this year now that I have retired from playing fantasy football.  I have said for years that the product had gotten worse and that FF was the main reason I still watched so much, and I guess now I will find out for sure.

You retired from FF?