2021 NFL Pick'em

[ProfessorPeart]

Hey, wow! I changed my LV/Dal pick this morning after they reported that Lamb was ruled out. After how bad Dallas was last week with no Cooper and Lamb getting hurt, it felt right. Turns out, I'm the only one that thought that. Every expert this morning picked Dallas to win even with the injury news.

Hurray for small victories.

[Stadler]

That was a good pick.  I thought about it, but couldn't pull the trigger.  Too many emotions (I LOVE the Raiders, and I HATE Dallas) plus I did the "last minute go with Vegas" thing last week and it didn't work out.  No balls, I guess.

[Cool Chris]

Crap did I just have an awful weekend.

[Stadler]

So I'm slowly climbing out of the cellar, but after my disasterous Jax pick I decided to go back and look at the picks I've made that go against my "system" or "instincts", and I'm 3-8.   That, to me, is just discipline.  Had I stuck to my guns and not tried to get "cute", I'd have 110 points and be in a dogfight for second place. 

Let that be a lesson, kids.   Don't get cute.

[T-ski]

 

[Dublagent66]

Standings (Wk 12)

Rank    Pick Set Name     Total Pts       W-L
1           T-ski’s Pick-ski’s        111         111-68
2           AAgent66                 111         111-68
3           Tall Cool One            111         111-68
4           Dragon Attack           109         109-70
5           Dave                        108         108-71
6           Admiral Barto            108         108-71
7           Professor                  106         106-73
8           Stadler's Folly           105         105-74
9           D.o.C                       105         105-74
10         hefdaddy42              102         102-77

[Stadler]

Ugh. I can accept being wrong; I get it.  But when it's a matter of discipline, and I should have known better, it gnaws at me.  I should have 111 points.  I'm not talking about "oh, I should have picked the Giants over the Eagles"; I'm talking "I should have stuck to my process".   111 points. 

[Dave_Manchester]

For unsound reasons (a very non-scientific theory of mine about when teams break their losing streaks, developed over decades of watching English soccer), I had picked Detroit this week. Every aspect of my 'theory' was in place, all the necessary circumstances were aligned, and I told myself, "Self, this has a Detroit victory written all over it". So Thursday night, I checked 'Detroit'.

But then 10 minutes before kick-off today I decided that now was not the time to be taking risks. "Stick with the form guide, " I told myself. "You'll kick yourself if you lose a point based on a half-baked method that wasn't even created with this sport in mind". So with a full 3 minutes to spare, I switched from Detroit to the Vikings.

And sure enough Detroit went and won.

Bah, humbug.

[Stadler]

I had the exact opposite experience; I stuck to the plan, after six straight losses when I deviated.  I knew in my heart New England was going to win that game, and I didn't have the nuggets to make the change.   Ah well. 

[Dublagent66]

Standings (Wk 13)

Rank    Pick Set Name     Total Pts         W-L
1           T-ski’s Pick-ski’s        119         119-74
2           AAgent66                 119         119-74
3           Tall Cool One            119         119-74
4           Dragon Attack           118         118-75
5           Professor                  116         116-77
6           Dave                        116         116-77
7           Admiral Barto            116         116-77
8           D.o.C                       115         115-78
9           Stadler's Folly           113         113-80
10         hefdaddy42              112         112-81

[ProfessorPeart]

Clawing my way back. Closed the gap from 8 to 3. Wondering how I will muck it up now.

[DragonAttack]

For unsound reasons (a very non-scientific theory of mine about when teams break their losing streaks, developed over decades of watching English soccer), I had picked Detroit this week. Every aspect of my 'theory' was in place, all the necessary circumstances were aligned, and I told myself, "Self, this has a Detroit victory written all over it". So Thursday night, I checked 'Detroit'.

But then 10 minutes before kick-off today I decided that now was not the time to be taking risks. "Stick with the form guide, " I told myself. "You'll kick yourself if you lose a point based on a half-baked method that wasn't even created with this sport in mind". So with a full 3 minutes to spare, I switched from Detroit to the Vikings.

And sure enough Detroit went and won.

Bah, humbug.

Seeing the highlights, that was one of the worst 'prevent (a win)' defenses I've ever seen.  And on the winning TD, the DBs were five yards deep in the endzone.   All in all, this has just been a weird year.

[T-ski]

I haven’t had my “bad week” yet, hopefully it doesn’t happen.

[Dave_Manchester]

Yep. Happened again. "Self, this right here is a 9ers victory". So I checked SF on Thursday. 10 minutes from kick-off today I switched to the favoured Bengals. Bengals lost in overtime.

My own personal anguish aside I've been playing this game for a few years now and if memory serves this is the first time it's been this close heading into the last few weeks of the regular season. Week 14 and it's still anyone's title, nobody is running away with it, everyone bunched up, it's there for the taking for whoever 'cracks' first and makes some brave calls in the final weeks.

[Cool Chris]

Can't say for certain but feel like the past few years I've been out of it by this point, so was wondering if it is usually this close at the top going in to the last few weeks of the season.

[Dave_Manchester]

Certainly not since I've been playing. By this stage there's usually been 1 or 2 out in front with the peloton 8 to 10 points behind.

[Stadler]

Certainly not since I've been playing. By this stage there's usually been 1 or 2 out in front with the peloton 8 to 10 points behind.

This has been my experience too.  Makes it fun going in to the home stretch.   

[ProfessorPeart]

Just insane how bunched up we are. I'm 3 wins out and in 8th?!?!?!?

Doesn't get much more competitive than this.

[DragonAttack]

1   T-ski’s Pick-ski’s     129-78-1
1   AAgent66             129-78-1
1   Tall Cool One     129-78-1
4   Admiral Barto     128-79-1
5   Dave                     127-80-1
5   Dragon Attack     127-80-1
7   D.o.C             126-81-1
7   Professor             126-81-1
9   Stadler's Folly     124-83-1
10   hefdaddy42     123-84-1

I have been hanging near the top all year,  and only fell one game to the top this week, but now I'm one game from falling to 8th! 

I went 9-5 which was three less than the best, but I liked my picks, even though I was the only one to pick the Jets (they were hosting a dome team in the cold who had just been hammered, so I didn't think it was a crazy choice).  I was still ahead of the Baltimore Sun 'experts' going into last weekend. 

Wish I could find the final standings throughout the years.  I am guessing that this is the lowest winning percentage of correct picks, or damn close to it.

[Dublagent66]

Standings (Wk 14)

Rank    Pick Set Name     Total Pts         W-L
1           T-ski’s Pick-ski’s        129         129-78
2           AAgent66                 129         129-78
3           Tall Cool One            129         129-78
4           Admiral Barto            128         128-79
5           Dave                        127         127-80
6           Dragon Attack           127         127-80
7           D.o.C                       126         126-81
8           Professor                  126         126-81
9           Stadler's Folly           124         124-83
10         hefdaddy42              123         123-84

[Destiny Of Chaos]

Well crap

[DragonAttack]

^
Indeed for tonight.  If the Colts win and I couldn't get online to change my pick, I am going to be peeved.  If the Pats win, I will have dodged a bullet and simply go 'phewwwww'.

[Dave_Manchester]

Phew.

Really happy with that, especially because for a while there it seemed like the Colts were looking to shit the bed in the 4th quarter.

That's the most thought I've ever put in to a pick on this game. Every 6th sensory nerve in my body was screaming a Patriots win but the cold analytics were favouring the Colts. Went with the analytics. Paid off for once.


(an inside joke for Stadler and Barto - somewhere in Fort Wayne Indiana our old pal 'Fish' is gleefully chucking darts at his Belichick/McDaniels dart board right now).

[Stadler]

I would have paid money to view a Fish-cam for that last 20 minutes or so of that game! 

That was a hard pick for me as well, and while I didn't do a ton of research, the logic was the same.  I decided to go with my head not my heart.  I feel like Bill is not too upset about that loss, though; he might be upset the way certain players played, the way they seemed to shoot themselves in the foot when they could least afford to, but there's nothing in that game, IMO that isn't fixable.

[Cool Chris]

What the heck you guys talking about?



Also Google took me a few scrolls to get to this guy. Apparently someone much more famous (of clickable) shares that name?

[ProfessorPeart]

Fish was a big member of the MP forum and it's much smaller replacement. My overall dislike of him made me stop going to the replacement place and then I guess he rage-quit sometime after that over something. He never stepped foot over here. Can't say I'm not happy about it. I honestly did not get along with him and wasn't very fond of him.

[Stadler]

Fish was a big member of the MP forum and it's much smaller replacement. My overall dislike of him made me stop going to the replacement place and then I guess he rage-quit sometime after that over something. He never stepped foot over here. Can't say I'm not happy about it. I honestly did not get along with him and wasn't very fond of him.

He is/was an interesting dude; very opinionated.   The specific reference here is that he was a die-hard Colts fan, and by-the-by, a Brady/Patriots hater (not quite at Dream Team's level - who is? - but very close).  I got along with him better than Professor, but we had some back and forth about Deflategate, for sure. 

[Cool Chris]

Phew last night I changed my picks on both of today's games to the winner. Keeping track of players on Covid lists, schedule changes... this is going to be tough headed down the stretch!

[DragonAttack]

Week 15 standings

1   T-ski’s Pick-ski’s      141-82-1
2   AAgent66              140-83-1
2   Tall Cool One      140-83-1
4   Professor              138-85-1
4   Admiral Barto      138-85-1
6   D.o.C              137-86-1
6   Dave                      137-86-1
8   Dragon Attack      135-88-1
9   Stadler's Folly      134-89-1
10   hefdaddy42      131-92-1

I certainly would have made a couple of changes due to C19 lists and such if life hadn't gotten in the way.  Others I still stand by, they just didn't work.  It rather hurts to have been near the top for so long for the first time, only to kind of crash and burn late.

[Dublagent66]

Standings (Wk 16)

Rank    Pick Set Name     Total Pts         W-L
1           T-ski’s Pick-ski’s        154         154-85
2           AAgent66                 152         152-87
3           Tall Cool One            151         151-88
4           D.o.C                       149         149-90
5           Admiral Barto            149         149-90
6           Dave                        148         148-91
7           Professor                  148         148-91 
8           Dragon Attack           147         147-92
9           Stadler's Folly           144         144-95
10         hefdaddy42              142         142-97

[Cool Chris]

Finally getting some separation at the top with 2 weeks to go.

[T-ski]

Can’t wait to see how I blow this.

[Dublagent66]

Standings (Wk 17)

Rank    Pick Set Name     Total Pts        W-L
1           T-ski’s Pick-ski’s       167         167-88
2           Tall Cool One            165         165-90
3           AAgent66                 165         165-90
4           D.o.C                       162         162-93
5           Admiral Barto           162         162-93
6           Dave                        161         161-94
7           Professor                  161         161-94 
8           Dragon Attack           158         158-97
9           Stadler's Folly           156         156-99
10         hefdaddy42              152         152-103

[Stadler]

I'm really disappointed in my performance.  I'm never the guy that blows away the field, but I'm better than nine out of a ten-man/woman race.

I will say, I didn't see last night coming, and apparently it was pretty clear to everyone else. 

[ProfessorPeart]

Had my best week ever and gained exactly zero on first place. Got as close as 3 but after blowing it a few weeks ago, I score exactly the same as whomever is in first. Oh well, at least I'm not Stadler.