2021 NFL Pick'em

[El Barto]

I'm just going to point out that I cracked 200 last year (a shorter season). I do so because, while I did have a nice lead on the pack, it wasn't a blowout year or anything. We all did considerably better than this year, where so many games came down to the AGS rule of random upsets. And the fact that we all spent so much time grouped together also demonstrates that. Weird season.

[Stadler]

Had my best week ever and gained exactly zero on first place. Got as close as 3 but after blowing it a few weeks ago, I score exactly the same as whomever is in first. Oh well, at least I'm not Stadler. 

HAHA.   

[hefdaddy42]

Fuck, I have tanked this so bad.

[Cool Chris]

AGS rule of random upsets?

[Stadler]

"Any Given Sunday".

EDIT:
Bert Bell became Commissioner of the NFL in 1946. He’s credited with coming up with the phrase “On Any Given Sunday, any team can beat any other team.”   

[Cool Chris]

Huh... I've never seen Any Given Sunday abbreviated.

[T-ski]

I hate the last week of the season, never know what teams are doing as far as rest and evaluation.

Also, does this extend into the playoffs?

[Cool Chris]

Didn't think about that because I'm usually out of it by now. And yes the playoffs are included up until the Superb Owl.

[Dave_Manchester]

To paraphrase the Bard as we head into the last week, to be brave or not to be brave? By which I mean if the NFL (in which I'm mostly clueless) is anything like English soccer (in which I'm not), the last week of the season is basically a lottery. Some teams have nothing to play for yet there's always one or 2 players who need to play out of their skin to secure a new contract. Other players are already mentally checked out and lying on a beach in Rimini while the coach is talking to them. Some teams rest their best players for the tougher battles to come, while others want to keep them fighting fit. God only knows which way results fall. So do I play it safe and go with the 'favourites' or mix things up and go for final glory? The answer will likely depend on how many beers I have tomorrow night when I make my picks (Russian Christmas tomorrow, usually have a bit of a shindig).

While I'm here I have 2 questions about the sport. I'll say again, I know very little about the nuts and bolts of American football (I still don't fully understand all the rules) but I've been following it for a few years now and the more I watch the more fascinating I find it. I like to watch videos about it and there are 2 that I want some opinions on.

The first is this one, where Belichick is mad. I don't really get what's going on (rules over my head) but the commentators say that nothing is happening that Bill hadn't done before. So my question is, what is he angry about? Does he not realise that he did the same thing (if indeed it's true that he did)? Is he just being an arsehole or is there something the commentators are missing?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTsvc9pkZ04

And the 2nd thing I'd like your opinions on is this video about Belichick deliberately throwing Superbowl LII. On a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being "total horseshit" and 10 being "yep, I agree", what do you think about the theory?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rWZIGS10TU



   

[El Barto]

On the first one I think he was just pissed off and frustrated. He'd done it (better) to the Jets, and he was on the wrong side this time.

As for the second, while I can't watch the vid here at work, I'm familiar with the story and I don't really buy it. Bill can certainly hold a grudge, but he's too smart to fuck himself over out of spite. My guess was always that he was just inflexible as to the rules he's set. If you don't practice you don't start.

[Dave_Manchester]

^^ Do me a favour and watch the video when you get a chance, the guy lays his argument out pretty well in my (uninformed) opinion.

[El Barto]

^^ Do me a favour and watch the video when you get a chance, the guy lays his argument out pretty well in my (uninformed) opinion.

I'm pretty sure I saw that video a while back. That's why I now of the theory in the first place. The fact of the matter is that the inside of Bill's head is a dark, foreboding place and none of us really know what's going on in there. We can speculate, but that's about it.

And back to the first video, there was speculation that Bill had pulled that stunt first specifically to call attention to a particularly stupid loophole. He said after the game that it should be closed for the reason he just demonstrated. When he pulled it against the Jets it was totally meaningless (big blowout). While it probably wasn't the shrewdest move to demonstrate it to the other teams, I could see him being pissed off about falling victim to what really is a silly flaw in the rule book. It's also possible that there actually was a difference between the two games that we don't know about. No coach in the league knows the rules better than Belichick (and the referees will be the first to vouch for this). I suspect he was just frustrated, but I wouldn't rule out that he knew something that we don't.

[T-ski]

I hate the last week of the season, never know what teams are doing as far as rest and evaluation.

Also, does this extend into the playoffs?

Yep, I shit the bed.

[ProfessorPeart]

I was half-tempted to go upset crazy on several games. Turns out, had I, I might've made a game of this. Pretty much every game that I wanted to play upset ended up going that way. I was 6 back, why the heck didn't I? 

[Cool Chris]

I do not even want to look at the standings after today.

[El Barto]

Seems to me that DA66 just jumped out into the lead, with 3 games separating the top 5.

[Destiny Of Chaos]

I had a good week. Was the only one on Detroit and one of only two on Vegas. Didn't have the stones to pull the trigger on that Jacksonville upset, and certainly wouldn't have ever picked Seattle.

[DragonAttack]

1  AAgent66          175-96-1
2  D.o.C                174-97-1
3  T-ski’s Pick-ski’s 173-98-1
4  Admiral Barto    172-99-1
    Tall Cool One     172-99-1
6  Professor           170-101-1
7  Dave                 169-102-1
8  Dragon Attack    165-106-1
9  Stadler's Folly    164-107-1
10 hefdaddy42      161-110-1

I had seen where the Irsays had not won in J'ville since '14, and I should have pulled the trigger.  That would have given me some solace. 7-9 is a horrible way to finish the season after doing quite well the past two weeks.  I've been terrible the past three years as to the playoff picks, so I wouldn't be surprised if I go 4-9 for them 

I do think it's interesting, that if you divide things up by 17 games, or by 18 weeks, the difference between top and bottom is less than one per.   And only six games separate 1st and 7th.  Good going, guys

[Cool Chris]

Dang, 66 and DoC each had a massive jump. Good job in the clutch guys.

[Dublagent66]

Well, that was unexpected.  I'll enjoy the top spot for a few more days but there are more games and it's still pretty tight.

[Destiny Of Chaos]

Congrats to Barto for going 6 for 6 on Super Wild Card Weekend. I came close, but I was on the wrong side of that beat down in Buffalo.

[El Barto]

Congrats to Barto for going 6 for 6 on Super Wild Card Weekend. I came close, but I was on the wrong side of that beat down in Buffalo.

Thanks. I actually went 12 for 12 IRL. My nemesis and I pick straight and against the spread during the playoffs, and I covered all of those, as well. I really wish there were a way to add that to our thing here, but we're limited to what Yahoo can manage. Honestly, Vegas made the lines pretty easy this week. There was only one that concerned me. I didn't check it before the game and just emailed off "KC-whatever," and was shocked when it turned out to be twelve and a half points.    Even that didn't matter, though. My hunch on both KC and TB was that if the game is close enough to go under the spread, both teams will likely lose anyway.

[DragonAttack]

^
Did you hit up Vegas with those picks?  Well done.

Well, I went 3-3 and continue my late season fade, ...even though I had the Bills picked on pg 53 of the NFL thread.  It's not the first time that I've clicked on the team on the right, where my brain for some reason is telling me that is the home team

[El Barto]

^
Did you hit up Vegas with those picks?  Well done.

Well, I went 3-3 and continue my late season fade, ...even though I had the Bills picked on pg 53 of the NFL thread.  It's not the first time that I've clicked on the team on the right, where my brain for some reason is telling me that is the home team

Nope. The only thing I'll gamble with is a friendly bottle of hooch.

[Cool Chris]

I am glad the Pick 'em is straight up. I doubt I would play if it was involved the spread.

[El Barto]

I am glad the Pick 'em is straight up. I doubt I would play if it was involved the spread.

My regular Pick'em is straight up, too. We only add line picks for the playoffs. Adds another layer of difficulty.

[Cool Chris]

We got murdered this weekend.

[DragonAttack]

Someone was 13 seconds away from a sweep by picking all four road teams.....

it obviously wasn't me

[Destiny Of Chaos]

We got murdered this weekend.

I got murdered on Saturday and revived on Sunday.

[Dublagent66]

D.o.C moves into 1st with only 3 games to go.  Comin' down to the wire...

Current Standings

Rank    Pick Set Name               W-L
1           D.o.C                       181-100
2           AAgent66                 180-101
3           T-ski’s Pick-ski’s       179-102
4           Admiral Barto           178-103
5           Tall Cool One            176-105
6           Professor                  174-107 
7           Dave                        173-108
8           Stadler's Folly           170-111
9           Dragon Attack           169-112
10         hefdaddy42               166-115

[Cool Chris]

For some reason I thought the game didn't include the SB. Not sure why. Maybe because by then I am way out of it.

So with 3 games to go, 4 people are still alive.

[Dublagent66]

Deleted

[El Barto]

Why wouldn't the Super Bowl count? It does in my world.

[Dublagent66]

Why wouldn't the Super Bowl count? It does in my world.

Actually, I screwed up twice.  The 4th week is the SB.  Sorry about the confusion.   3 games left.

[Dublagent66]

No movement in the standings following the final 4.  1 game to go... 

Current Standings

Rank    Pick Set Name               W-L
1           D.o.C                       182-101
2           AAgent66                 181-102
3           T-ski’s Pick-ski’s       180-103
4           Admiral Barto           179-104
5           Tall Cool One            177-106
6           Professor                  174-109 
7           Dave                        173-110
8           Stadler's Folly           171-112
9           Dragon Attack           170-113
10         hefdaddy42               166-117