YOUR pct of chances that MP EVER returns to DT

[OpenYourEyes311]

JLB and MP don't get along AT ALL, as James implied in a very recent interview when he was asked about MP reuniting with JP for his solo album.

Link?

[Trav86]

Anything’s possible. It’s hard for me to believe that JP and the guys would ever tell Mangini to hit the road and bring Portnoy back in. But then again, prior to 2010 I wouldn’t have believed that Portnoy would leave.

[Weymolith]

I could see him coming out for a song or two at a special show (40th anniversary) but rejoining full time.... I don't see that happening.

[BeatriceNB]

I don't think it's impossible for it to happen, but I hope it never does. Other than WDADU and I&W, I never feel the desire to listen to MP-era Dream Theater.  After all, Mangini is the reason why I started listening to the band (and Portnoy, well, let's say he's my least favourite drummer ever).

Also, I have seen the same thing mentioned every time the topic is brought up, but there's no conceivable way Portnoy and Mangini could play together without it sounding like pure cacophony; their styles and approaches to drumming are polar opposites.

[darkshade]

At one time, I would’ve said 100% that he’d be back some day.  The fact that he’s now done the Petrucci solo record and LTE and he’s still not back has given me some pause for thought.  Also the fact that the reunion of JP, JR and MP in LTE didn’t seem to make that much of a splash, I wonder if his return to DT would really give them that much of a bump.  I’m down to 50% and, after the slightly disappointing recent TA and LTE reunions, I’m ok if it doesn’t happen.  Not saying those albums are bad at all, they just didn’t quite live up to my ridiculously excited expectations.

LTE and JP solo are not DT. Fans of the band have expressed little interest in instrumental music in general, so I don't think you can judge how big MP's return would be based on his reunion with JP for his solo album and JP and JR for LTE3.

[TheRich13]

I could already hear the clicking sound of this thread getting locked ….

[WilliamMunny]

As a 'one-off,' I'd say 100%.

As a full-time member, I'd drop the odds back to 50/50.

It's JP's band now, and the dynamic him and MP had may no longer be possible, especially given all the time that has passed. Would either of them be interested in a new power dynamic, one where JP is possibly in the driver's seat?

Even if it looked good on paper, I suspect there'd be massive growing pains if he returned.

[Dedalus]

At one time, I would’ve said 100% that he’d be back some day.  The fact that he’s now done the Petrucci solo record and LTE and he’s still not back has given me some pause for thought.  Also the fact that the reunion of JP, JR and MP in LTE didn’t seem to make that much of a splash, I wonder if his return to DT would really give them that much of a bump.  I’m down to 50% and, after the slightly disappointing recent TA and LTE reunions, I’m ok if it doesn’t happen.  Not saying those albums are bad at all, they just didn’t quite live up to my ridiculously excited expectations.

LTE and JP solo are not DT. Fans of the band have expressed little interest in instrumental music in general, so I don't think you can judge how big MP's return would be based on his reunion with JP for his solo album and JP and JR for LTE3.

You're right, different things.

But Peter made an interesting point. The news that MP would play on JP's new solo album and LTE's return caused more excitement than the albums themselves. It seems like people wanted to know that MP and JP were working together, but they weren't all that interested in actually listening to the music made.

And this is especially notable in the case of LTE. The return of LTE seemed much more bombastic in the DT discussion groups than it actually was.

[Peter Mc]

At one time, I would’ve said 100% that he’d be back some day.  The fact that he’s now done the Petrucci solo record and LTE and he’s still not back has given me some pause for thought.  Also the fact that the reunion of JP, JR and MP in LTE didn’t seem to make that much of a splash, I wonder if his return to DT would really give them that much of a bump.  I’m down to 50% and, after the slightly disappointing recent TA and LTE reunions, I’m ok if it doesn’t happen.  Not saying those albums are bad at all, they just didn’t quite live up to my ridiculously excited expectations.

LTE and JP solo are not DT. Fans of the band have expressed little interest in instrumental music in general, so I don't think you can judge how big MP's return would be based on his reunion with JP for his solo album and JP and JR for LTE3.

I’m not suggesting LTE is DT (although it’s pretty close!) and I know instrumental music is not as big of a draw.  I just thought it might’ve made a bigger impact than it did.  I’m talking LTE3 in particular here, the JP solo record actually felt like it did ok and I really enjoyed it.  It felt like the best JP has sounded in a long time and the same for MP.  LTE was a bit of a damp squib though imo, it’s perfectly fine but just felt like a bit of a tired lesser version of the other two albums.  It in no way got me pumped for a MP Dream Theater album and didn’t seem to generate any fan momentum demanding MP’s return.

[wolfking]

Well, when you're new here and it's been nearly 11 years since MP left, you might want to consider that this subject has been beaten to death more than enough times.  Way more actually.  The only scenario I see having even the slightest of a remote possibility of MP's return would be if something happened to MM.  Even then, it might not happen.  As long as MM is fully capable (which he most certainly is), he'll continue to be the man behind the kit.

Believe me, I'm not "new". Not by a LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG shot!

You literally registered your account 5 days ago. 

I have 234,671 posts; I can register a new account this afternoon if I wanted to.  Doesn't make me "new" here.

https://www.dreamtheaterforums.org/boards/index.php?action=profile;u=12367

The avatar makes this what it is!

[KevShmev]

Portnoy's return would likely be a pebble in the ocean, not a big splash in the lake.  I think some of your overestimating his drawing power.  Go back and look at the shitholes Sons of Apollo played on their first tour.  That never happens if Portnoy was as big of a draw as some are implying.  Not saying there aren't fans who are less likely to go to shows now who would be more likely to go if he was back, but it's most likely a pretty small percentage.

Not like DT is Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones, but the Dream Theater brand name is much bigger than any one man who is in the band or has been in the band.  The brand name is what helps sell tickets. 

[wolfking]

Portnoy's return would likely be a pebble in the ocean, not a big splash in the lake.  I think some of your overestimating his drawing power.  Go back and look at the shitholes Sons of Apollo played on their first tour.  That never happens if Portnoy was as big of a draw as some are implying.  Not saying there aren't fans who are less likely to go to shows now who would be more likely to go if he was back, but it's most likely a pretty small percentage.

Not like DT is Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones, but the Dream Theater brand name is much bigger than any one man who is in the band or has been in the band.  The brand name is what helps sell tickets.

Agree, it means nothing and won't cause any mass new wave of interest for the band.  It's only us long term die hard fans that have an opinion on the subject, the masses wouldn't probably even know.  That's why the band will never do it.  They are rolling fine, and there's not reason to bring up bad blood again potentially for minimal gain.

[Trav86]

Portnoy's return would likely be a pebble in the ocean, not a big splash in the lake.  I think some of your overestimating his drawing power.  Go back and look at the shitholes Sons of Apollo played on their first tour.  That never happens if Portnoy was as big of a draw as some are implying.  Not saying there aren't fans who are less likely to go to shows now who would be more likely to go if he was back, but it's most likely a pretty small percentage.

Not like DT is Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones, but the Dream Theater brand name is much bigger than any one man who is in the band or has been in the band.  The brand name is what helps sell tickets.

Agree, it means nothing and won't cause any mass new wave of interest for the band.  It's only us long term die hard fans that have an opinion on the subject, the masses wouldn't probably even know.  That's why the band will never do it.  They are rolling fine, and there's not reason to bring up bad blood again potentially for minimal gain.

My thoughts as well. All written more precisely and eloquently than I would be able to.

[gzarruk]

JLB and MP don't get along AT ALL, as James implied in a very recent interview when he was asked about MP reuniting with JP for his solo album.

Link?

It was originally linked in the Terminal Velocity thread, but a quick google search gave me this: https://mariskalrock.com/actualidad/dream-theater-la-enemistad-entre-james-labrie-y-mike-portnoy-que-se-extrae-de-las-palabras-del-cantante/

Apparently, it was an interview for a Spanish magazine, so it's in Spanish, but I can translate/paraphrase what James said. He was asked his opinion about John working with Mike again for TV, and he answered:

When we do solo albums it's different than the band. It's up to John to choose who he wants to work with, just like it's up to me to choose who I want to work with on mine. John knows the kind of relationship Mike and I have, he is aware of it, but at the same time it's up to him to choose who he wants to play with in his album.

I'm sure it was properly linked in the Terminal Velocity thread if you want to search for it.

[jayvee3]

Portnoy's return would likely be a pebble in the ocean, not a big splash in the lake.  I think some of your overestimating his drawing power.  Go back and look at the shitholes Sons of Apollo played on their first tour.  That never happens if Portnoy was as big of a draw as some are implying.  Not saying there aren't fans who are less likely to go to shows now who would be more likely to go if he was back, but it's most likely a pretty small percentage.

Not like DT is Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones, but the Dream Theater brand name is much bigger than any one man who is in the band or has been in the band.  The brand name is what helps sell tickets.

Agree with all of this 

[Madman Shepherd]

Portnoy's return would likely be a pebble in the ocean, not a big splash in the lake.  I think some of your overestimating his drawing power.  Go back and look at the shitholes Sons of Apollo played on their first tour.  That never happens if Portnoy was as big of a draw as some are implying.  Not saying there aren't fans who are less likely to go to shows now who would be more likely to go if he was back, but it's most likely a pretty small percentage.

Not like DT is Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones, but the Dream Theater brand name is much bigger than any one man who is in the band or has been in the band.  The brand name is what helps sell tickets.

You're underestimating how much people loves nostalgia nowadays. Still, you're not too far off. Maybe not a pebble but surely a stone. Look at GNR with only Axl. At his peak he was playing 10k plus a night while Slash was playing anywhere from a couple thousand to the high hundreds. Throw the two of them together and they're selling out stadiums. Of course, Duff is probably responsible for dozens of those tickets too.

DT is no GNR though but without a doubt you would see a significant bump in tickets...for a tour. And significant, in relative terms, would be maybe a couple hundred more per night. Maybe even a thousand in a few markets. Next tour, you'd be back down to current levels.

Would that be worth the hassle to DT? Doubtful.

Anybody follow Sepultura? They have received so many offers to reunite with Max Cavalera and Igor. Andreas and Paulo have no interest despite the breakup not being nearly as bad as most bands and despite Sepultura playing small clubs. Their M&G package is only 50 bucks. Their vocalist doesn't get a lot of acclaim so many people are like, "Why are you so loyal to that guy?" Sidenote: I actually like Derrick Green MORE than Max and think he upped the lyricals and vocal qualities by A LOT...minority opinion though. A Sepultura reunion would increase tickets sale for them by a HUGE percentage, more than DT and yet, Andreas is like, "Nah."

Once you make a certain amount of money, to some people, any more is trivial.

[Dedalus]

But was there a significant drop in financial terms after MP's departure? I honestly can't answer that.

It's not like Iron Maiden that from a giant band started playing in much smaller venues with Blaze.

[Madman Shepherd]

But was there a significant drop in financial terms after MP's departure? I honestly can't answer that.

I doubt it. If anything, I think it causes a spike in their popularity.

It's not like Iron Maiden that from a giant band started playing in much smaller venues with Blaze.

Exactly.

[Trav86]

But was there a significant drop in financial terms after MP's departure? I honestly can't answer that.

As far as immediately afterwards, I doubt it.  They had an album in the Top 10, a successful world tour and a live film that played in movie theaters. Seems pretty good.

[Architeuthis]

I'm completely content with MM being in DT.  It is likely that JLB has a lot more creative freedom with his approach to the vocal parts. While I absolutely love MP's drumming, I would think that MM is better for the overall  morale for the band.
If I could meet either one, I'd go with MM. I'm confident that it would be a more positive and memorable experience.. 

[Setlist Scotty]

While I think it's pretty much inevitable that he will join them onstage for a one-off performance at some point, I ended up voting the 25% Roth option for MP to return permanently. At this point in time, I don't see it happening for all the reasons already mentioned (level of authority MP would be given, MM would have to leave of his own volition, conflict with JL, etc), but never say never. I will say that *if* he was to return, I imagine that MP *would* be willing to play MM-era songs. There'd probably only be one or two in any given setlist, but I don't think he would completely disavow that part of the catalog.
 
 

I have never heard this before in relation to his 'mindset.'  Has he said this before somewhere?  I wouldn't say the band now don't have a mindset geared towards their fans though.  I just meant more his character, attitude, stage presence and drumming in comparison to MM.

MP has always stated that he looks at things from a fan's standpoint. That's why he did all the extras that he did (official boots, rotating setlists, etc), worked closely with the fan clubs, encouraged the rest of the band to do stuff like the audio commentaries for their videos and had more direct involvement with the fans than the other guys. I think after MP left, it forced the rest of the guys to up their game and for some time they did have more of a presence, but to a large degree things reverted back to the way they were by the end of the first album cycle.
 
 

The return of LTE seemed much more bombastic in the DT discussion groups than it actually was.

Huh? Not sure I'm following what you're saying. Care to clarify?
 
 

Portnoy's return would likely be a pebble in the ocean, not a big splash in the lake.  I think some of your overestimating his drawing power.  Go back and look at the shitholes Sons of Apollo played on their first tour.  That never happens if Portnoy was as big of a draw as some are implying.  Not saying there aren't fans who are less likely to go to shows now who would be more likely to go if he was back, but it's most likely a pretty small percentage.

Not saying that his hypothetical return would be that huge, but it might be at least a bit more than you think. In terms of the places SoA has played, exactly how big were the places that Bruce Dickinson and Rob Halford played after they left their respective bands? I don't think they were significant either. Not saying MP returning would have the same impact on the band's popularity or draw that Bruce and Rob had, but it would be something. As Madman Shepherd mentioned, nostalgia does play a roll, although it's up for debate as to how long that upswing in popularity would last.
 
 

But was there a significant drop in financial terms after MP's departure? I honestly can't answer that.

I doubt it. If anything, I think it causes a spike in their popularity.

At least initially, sure, but long term it's hard to say. I think they did lose a certain measure of their popularity over the years. Can't remember when it was, but I was shocked to hear several years ago (I wanna say 2014 or 2015) that Steven Wilson headlined over DT at some European festival. Now I know Steven's probably grown in popularity a bit, but enough so that the festival organizers felt he was a bigger draw than DT? Never mind that TA probably set them back a bit in terms of the band's popularity (and I'm not just talking about the poorly planned second North American tour in support of the album). To help them regain that popularity, they did back to back tours where they performed their 2 most popular albums in their entirety; it would be interesting to know how successful they were in doing so.

[Trav86]

I still don’t see where there was any real significant drop from Portnoy’s departure, initially. If there is so evidence for it, it would be fascinating to see.

As far as a drop in the last few years, sure. But I don’t think that can be blamed on a lack of Portnoy.

[wolfking]

Thanks for that clarification Scotty.  Your wording on the issue somewhat rings a bell so fair play.

[The Curious Orange]

I can't see them kicking MM out to let MP back in, nor can I see them going with a 2-drummer situation (it wouldn't work) but if MM ever choses to leave and there's an empty drum stool, then that's a different matter.

[The Curious Orange]

I don't know how many times Petrucci or mangini has said THIS is the Dream Theater lineup until the end and there's not really a chance of Portnoy coming back.

I also remember Mick Fleetwood saying THIS was the final line-up of Fleetwood Mac right before he sacked Lindsey Buckingham.

[Stadler]

Portnoy's return would likely be a pebble in the ocean, not a big splash in the lake.  I think some of your overestimating his drawing power.  Go back and look at the shitholes Sons of Apollo played on their first tour.  That never happens if Portnoy was as big of a draw as some are implying.  Not saying there aren't fans who are less likely to go to shows now who would be more likely to go if he was back, but it's most likely a pretty small percentage.

Not like DT is Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones, but the Dream Theater brand name is much bigger than any one man who is in the band or has been in the band.  The brand name is what helps sell tickets.

You're underestimating how much people loves nostalgia nowadays. Still, you're not too far off. Maybe not a pebble but surely a stone. Look at GNR with only Axl. At his peak he was playing 10k plus a night while Slash was playing anywhere from a couple thousand to the high hundreds. Throw the two of them together and they're selling out stadiums. Of course, Duff is probably responsible for dozens of those tickets too.

DT is no GNR though but without a doubt you would see a significant bump in tickets...for a tour. And significant, in relative terms, would be maybe a couple hundred more per night. Maybe even a thousand in a few markets. Next tour, you'd be back down to current levels.

Would that be worth the hassle to DT? Doubtful.

Anybody follow Sepultura? They have received so many offers to reunite with Max Cavalera and Igor. Andreas and Paulo have no interest despite the breakup not being nearly as bad as most bands and despite Sepultura playing small clubs. Their M&G package is only 50 bucks. Their vocalist doesn't get a lot of acclaim so many people are like, "Why are you so loyal to that guy?" Sidenote: I actually like Derrick Green MORE than Max and think he upped the lyricals and vocal qualities by A LOT...minority opinion though. A Sepultura reunion would increase tickets sale for them by a HUGE percentage, more than DT and yet, Andreas is like, "Nah."

Once you make a certain amount of money, to some people, any more is trivial.

Haha, poor Duff!   

As I'm reading this, I also think that there are more dynamic scenarios than just "Mangini ups and leaves!" or "Petrucci fires Mangini!"  As for JLB, I think you need to actually have the question on the table before it can be accurately answered.   It's easy, with an album coming out and a tour looming (for example) to say "I'm never playing with Mike Portnoy ever again!".  It's not so easy when you are looking over the edge at there being NO band, with NO reliable income stream or artistic outlet.  Axl/Slash.  Gene/Paul/Ace/Peter (multiple times).   Mike/Derek.   Dave/Eddie/Alex.   People change, people age, people get new perspective.  I think unless you're in that room, in that conversation, it's very hard to make any bold, conclusive statements.   I don't say all this to suggest it's more likely it happens (actually, what I'm saying may make it LESS likely that it happens) just that any flat pronouncements are suspect in terms of their accuracy.

[Raise the Drum]

i see more possible to have an "event" where MP come join the band, like a special show where former members come for one or two songs.
Like the "When day and dream reunite" show

[Dedalus]

The return of LTE seemed much more bombastic in the DT discussion groups than it actually was.

Huh? Not sure I'm following what you're saying. Care to clarify?

In theory it seemed like a bigger event than it was in practice.

I confess that I also thought that the fact that MP playing again with JP and JR in something that is not DT but is as close as possible would be one of the great musical events of 2021 (at least in the prog/metall/rock universe ). It was not. It was another one of the musical events of 2021.

The news reverberated as I expected (a lot of buzz), the record didn't. The repercussion of the album (reviews, discussions, comments) was not different from most of the albums released in the year. The repercussion of LTE3 was not greater or more impactful than the new Transatlantic for example.

In a sense I agree with Kev (although I also think a return from MP to DT would be more impactful). But people really overestimate the drawing power of MP.

[Metro]

Rejoining the band permanently replacing Mangini - 0%

Rejoining the band permanently alongside Mangini - 10%

Rejoining the band for a one-off show - 100%

[MirrorMask]

Rejoining the band permanently replacing Mangini - 0%

Rejoining the band permanently alongside Mangini - 10%

Why would they have two drummers? a band can get away with three guitarists instead of two, or two singers instead of one, but two drummers? especially considering the size of both kits.... was there ever a band that had two permanent drummers?

[Metro]

Rejoining the band permanently replacing Mangini - 0%

Rejoining the band permanently alongside Mangini - 10%

Why would they have two drummers? a band can get away with three guitarists instead of two, or two singers instead of one, but two drummers? especially considering the size of both kits.... was there ever a band that had two permanent drummers?

King Crimson has had 3 drummers for a while now

King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard had 2 drummers for 10 years until one left last year

Melvins have had two drummers for years.

I’m sure there’s more examples I’m forgetting.

It’s not unheard of. It’s not likely in DT’s case, but I’d say still more likely than MP replacing MM. Hence the low %

[Madman Shepherd]

Rejoining the band permanently replacing Mangini - 0%

Rejoining the band permanently alongside Mangini - 10%

Why would they have two drummers? a band can get away with three guitarists instead of two, or two singers instead of one, but two drummers? especially considering the size of both kits.... was there ever a band that had two permanent drummers?

King Crimson has had 3 drummers for a while now

King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard had 2 drummers for 10 years until one left last year

Melvins have had two drummers for years.

I’m sure there’s more examples I’m forgetting.

It’s not unheard of. It’s not likely in DT’s case, but I’d say still more likely than MP replacing MM. Hence the low %

Kylesa

https://youtu.be/7vp1PPxxcp0?t=646

[pg1067]

was there ever a band that had two permanent drummers?

.38 Special and The Grateful Dead

Among others:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_drumming

[Stadler]

The Allman Brothers.

[Chino]

The Allman Brothers.

Their sons' band, The Allman Betts Band, does as well.