2020 NFL Pick'em

[Destiny Of Chaos]

I think I get too cute trying to fish out the upsets.

[El Barto]

@ people who are good at this... how much time do you spend on your picks? How much of it is based on analysis, and how much is based or gut feeling? Are you reading weather forecasts and injury reports? Or just thinking "Eh... this team is due for a win this week."

I make my picks Sunday morning an hour before kickoff. I've done it in as few as 20 minutes. Normally it's about 40.

If I think to myself "clearly AZ wins in a blowout," and 90% of the other Yahoo picks concur, I mark it. If only 89% concur I research it. This is normally between 3 and 8 games that I don't research. Of the ones I research I typically spend about 5 minutes looking into it. The important thing is that I find a reason why one team will win. They won't be able to stop X, or Y will be shut out today. Weather is rarely a consideration, but if injuries create a significant mismatch that'll certainly factor into it. Last week I picked LAR over SEA because SEA's already crappy secondary was decimated by Covid, for example.

[Stadler]

I literally look at the games and pick who I think is better, takes me less than 2 minutes to make all the picks.

I wouldn't consider myself "good at this", but I'm in the same boat.  The more I think, the more trouble I get in.  Having said that, though, I DO follow football, so I know, roughly, what's the what.   My heart is in Arizona, I love watching them play, and I picked them last week against Buffalo, but I knew going in that even though Seattle isn't the beast at home that they have been, they were at home and I'm not sure I want to play against a Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll/DK Metcalf that has something to prove and with the division on the line, coupled with some clear (to me) signs that the Cardinals are not a hardened, disciplined team (yet).  So I took as long as it took to click the box and hit save, but it wasn't a pure guess. 

Something Bart has said before, though:  ANY GIVEN SUNDAY.   You HAVE to take the emotion out of it.   You can only do so much; you still have to have both teams snapping the football for 60 minutes.   NE/Baltimore last week was a good example; you'd have to have that hot chick from Game Of Thrones to see the future to see some of that game playing out (and the way the weather played a role). 

I think I get too cute trying to fish out the upsets.

The kiss of death for me.

EDIT:  In all sincerity, and meaning people I personally know or have been in leagues with, Bart is probably the best I've seen at this.   There are far too many occasions for it to be pure chance that the group has all gone one way and Bart's gone the other, and been right.   That's borne out by the fact that he needs more shelving for the league trophies (It's like reading Super Bowl champions; there are others in there, but all seemingly random, and every one or two out of three reads "Patriots")

[DragonAttack]

99% of the time my picks are in on Wednesday night or Thursday late afternoon.  If not, I'll forget about the TNF game (happened once this year, but I would have lost anyway).  I used to enjoy fantasy football, but the weeknight game is a killer (especially if you have four players on a bye week and you don't check until Friday ).  I don't listen to one second of the Sunday pregame jocularity fests like a did a decade ago, because I can't stand the shtick and bullshtick that I'd have to endure during that time.  I'd rather spend that time with my wife and neighbors and 'tailgate' in our yard beforehand, then watch the Ravens with just my wife and dog.  And then have a beer or three with my neighbor and celebrate/commisorate afterwards.

I have gone back and changed a handful of picks over the past five years on game day, due to injuries, weather, etc.  And half of those changes didn't pan out.  I should do more of the El Barto way of predicting

[T-ski]

After this week I’d suggest not to follow my advice.

[Stadler]

I needed that Indy-GB game.    GB; another year with no discipline.  Costly penalties, and turnovers.  Guy Lafleur has the scheme, but not the leadership. 

[T-ski]

I needed that Indy-GB game.    GB; another year with no discipline.  Costly penalties, and turnovers.  Guy Lafleur has the scheme, but not the leadership.

Year 124 with a defense that blows chunks.  It’s beyond frustrating watching the same issue year in and year out and the GM and head coach (McCarthy included) ignoring the situation EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

[Dublagent66]

So, I guess we don't get to pick the Ravens/Steelers game this Tuesday? 

[El Barto]

So, I guess we don't get to pick the Ravens/Steelers game this Tuesday? 

It'll show up.  Yahoo knows what they're doing.

[T-ski]

So, I guess we don't get to pick the Ravens/Steelers game this Tuesday? 

It'll show up.  Yahoo knows what they're doing.

After the last couple of weeks, it appears I don’t know what I’m doing.

[Stadler]

So, I guess we don't get to pick the Ravens/Steelers game this Tuesday? 

It'll show up.  Yahoo knows what they're doing.

After the last couple of weeks, it appears I don’t know what I’m doing.

Part of it is that no one knows when the damn game will be actually played.  Did I understand that correctly that it's Wednesday now? (And at 3:40 in the afternoon, because NBC is committed to airing the Rockefeller tree lighting in the evening.)

[El Barto]

Part of it is that no one knows when the damn game will be actually played.  Did I understand that correctly that it's Wednesday now? (And at 3:40 in the afternoon, because NBC is committed to airing the Rockefeller tree lighting in the evening.)

Madness.

[El Barto]

Yahoo has explained their policy for their fantasy football leagues, sort of, but nothing about pick'em. It's already moved on to week 13, and Pitt/Balt isn't listed. My hunch is that they'll add it. They've added games here and there before. I don't guess it matters if it counts in week 12 or 13. I'm also guessing that we've all made that pick already. If you haven't made that pick, are unsure if you have or not, or want to change your pick, you should probably drop me a line. I honestly don't care if they count it or not, doesn't matter if it's a wash, but I don't want anybody getting burned because they missed a narrow window to actually pick it (though you should have done it by Sunday anyway).

[Dublagent66]

I'm not really confident that Yahoo is on top of this.  Take a look at Wk13.  The Ravens/Dallas game is listed at the top for Wed 12/31.  That isn't correct.  It should be Wed 12/9.  Also, I did make my pick for the Ravens/Pitt game but if it doesn't show up in the pick list for a given week, how do we know if it got counted or not?  They should've left it in the Wk12 listing.  It doesn't matter when the game is played.  It's still a Wk12 game.

[Stadler]

Looks like some of us got f-ed on that Steelers/Ravens game.   Looks like two games are considered "started" and I didn't pick them.  Two people did, though, but it doesn't seem to be the game being played.  How will that work, do you think?

[El Barto]

Looks like some of us got f-ed on that Steelers/Ravens game.   Looks like two games are considered "started" and I didn't pick them.  Two people did, though, but it doesn't seem to be the game being played.  How will that work, do you think?

Nobody's getting fucked. Clearly today's game just won't count as anything. Call it a tie. As for the two games that have "started," they won't count. Hell, the dates aren't even right. Yahoo's just struggling to make sense of this dumpster fire, and their primary focus is, of course, fantasy football rather than the pick'em.

[Stadler]

Looks like some of us got f-ed on that Steelers/Ravens game.   Looks like two games are considered "started" and I didn't pick them.  Two people did, though, but it doesn't seem to be the game being played.  How will that work, do you think?

Nobody's getting fucked. Clearly today's game just won't count as anything. Call it a tie. As for the two games that have "started," they won't count. Hell, the dates aren't even right. Yahoo's just struggling to make sense of this dumpster fire, and their primary focus is, of course, fantasy football rather than the pick'em.

I figure as much.  I'm not losing any sleep over it; they usually do a decent job of it.

[Stadler]

That Houston game was a killer for me.   

[El Barto]

That Houston game was a killer for me.   

It sure didn't help ya none. Losing Will Fuller was a death blow for them, and in the end that's probably the margin they lost by.

I really had no business going with Detroit, but sometimes hunches pay off. Chicago is absolutely the better team. I was just hoping that Stafford would keep it close enough for them to eek out a scrappy win for their new coach, and damned if it didn't work out that way.

[cramx3]

I'm going to blame the no thursday game for me totally forgetting about this week's picks.  but really, I fucked up because I was off all week from work and just kind of zoned out from the normal routine.  I wasn't going to win, so I'm not like too upset, but I may not bother following along the rest of the season now.  Oops.

[El Barto]

Turns out I've been quietly having a pretty good season. Honestly, I really only notice the flops. In the Yahoo public pool, had I bothered to enter, I'd be only three games behind 1st, and my 135 would put me tied for fourth and in the top 30 world wide. Go figure.

[Stadler]

Turns out I've been quietly having a pretty good season. Honestly, I really only notice the flops. In the Yahoo public pool, had I bothered to enter, I'd be only three games behind 1st, and my 135 would put me tied for fourth and in the top 30 world wide. Go figure.

I didn't compare you to the overall rankings, but I did notice that every week you seem to be adding a point here and a point there to your lead.  I'm not having the worst season in the world - outside of a couple kick-the-dog moments - and I have no shot of catching you with a quarter of the season to go.

Tough week coming, if you ask me.

[El Barto]

Turns out I've been quietly having a pretty good season. Honestly, I really only notice the flops. In the Yahoo public pool, had I bothered to enter, I'd be only three games behind 1st, and my 135 would put me tied for fourth and in the top 30 world wide. Go figure.

I didn't compare you to the overall rankings, but I did notice that every week you seem to be adding a point here and a point there to your lead.  I'm not having the worst season in the world - outside of a couple kick-the-dog moments - and I have no shot of catching you with a quarter of the season to go.

Tough week coming, if you ask me.

Well, I normally have at lest 1 abysmal week, and so far I've only had one fairly bad week, so I'm actually due for a letdown.

[Stadler]

Turns out I've been quietly having a pretty good season. Honestly, I really only notice the flops. In the Yahoo public pool, had I bothered to enter, I'd be only three games behind 1st, and my 135 would put me tied for fourth and in the top 30 world wide. Go figure.

I didn't compare you to the overall rankings, but I did notice that every week you seem to be adding a point here and a point there to your lead.  I'm not having the worst season in the world - outside of a couple kick-the-dog moments - and I have no shot of catching you with a quarter of the season to go.

Tough week coming, if you ask me.

Well, I normally have at lest 1 abysmal week, and so far I've only had one fairly bad week, so I'm actually due for a letdown.

Don't blame me if you do!   (Did you hear the exchange with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman during the game last night, where they were both gushing over Tucker, who had - to that point - made something like 76 straight field goals under 40 yards.  Buck even made the joke about who would be to blame if he tanked it.  He made the field goal attempt, but it was wiped out by a penalty then he hooked the retry. It was funny, and I think Buck was truly a little embarrassed by it. )

[T-ski]

El Barto with the four leaf clover all season.

[Stadler]

That was a great game and a big win (in terms of the locker room) for Herbert and the Chargers.  Raiders couldn't put it together on defense; they have two good QBs and a good offense, but they needed a couple stops they didn't get. 

Cousin Sal, though, on Fox had 7 straight Thursday picks, and if my memory serves, he called the upset AND predicted the score correctly.   I think he and Bart have been texting. 

[El Barto]

The calculus on this one was unusual. I picked based on the schedule, which I almost never do. SD's losses have mostly come against teams that could shut them down on D. Oakland is not one of those teams. Oakland's losses have been against teams that could score a lot of points. SD is one of those teams. Based on that I originally went with the Raiders, though. The word was that both of Herbert's top receivers were out. When they were both active for the game I changed my pick to SD at the last minute.

The truth is, though, once the game gets down to the end neck and neck, most of that reasoning goes out the window. Either team could have won that game, and if I'm being honest it probably should have been the Raiders. At the end of regulation they were the team that really paying to win. Moreover, those two top receivers were insignificant in the win. They barely played. So really, T-ski is kind of correct that luck factors into it quite a bit.

After last night I'd be one game behind first and all alone in 3rd place had I entered the public pool. It's never occurred to me to do that, but I suppose I should probably set up an entry going forward.

[El Barto]

There be Saturday football this week. Heads up.

[DragonAttack]

Guess I did jinx myself three weeks ago.  After having the best/tied for best weeks for a stretch, climbing to second place only a few games back, I really hit the skids.
 I am down to 5th place and 10+ games out.  Ouch. 

'It's a marathon, not a sprint.'  Guess I hit the wall early.

[Stadler]

There be Saturday football this week. Heads up.

Good call; thanks for the reminder.  That had escaped me (but I'm psyched; I woke up this morning to -1 degree Farenheit, so today is an inside day for sure.)

[T-ski]

Don’t have NFL Network in my television package, can’t watch the Packer game. I refuse to pay an extra $100/year to watch my team play on their network every 3 to 4 years. What a scam.

[Stadler]

MY PHONE DIDN'T SAVE MY PICKS.  DAMMIT.   Now I have to root for Minnesota.   

[Dave_Manchester]

Congrats Stadler. Incredible achievement during a very tricky week.

[Stadler]

Congrats Stadler. Incredible achievement during a very tricky week.

Thank you.  I actually changed a pick, something I avoid like the plague, just before game time.  I originally had the Bears. 

[Dublagent66]