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Coronavirus

Started by Phoenix87x, January 26, 2020, 05:32:15 AM

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Dublagent66

All the panic over this stupid virus is making the market volatile and my brokerage account is losing money.  No one has noticed that the Dow has taken a fucking dump over the last 2 days?

lordxizor

Quote from: Dublagent66 on February 26, 2020, 07:28:02 AM
All the panic over this stupid virus is making the market volatile and my brokerage account is losing money.  No one has noticed that the Dow has taken a fucking dump over the last 2 days?
Oh I noticed. I've lost more value in my investments in the last 2 days than my salary will pay over the next month and a half. That's kind of crazy. But I'm invested for the long haul, so a little volatility now isn't a big deal.

cramx3

Quote from: Harmony on February 25, 2020, 07:48:45 PM
Anyone think there will be a summer Olympics this year?   :sad:

I saw a headline saying they are waiting to see how bad it is come May, but it's definitely on the table to be cancelled or postponed.

Quote from: lordxizor on February 26, 2020, 07:29:50 AM
Quote from: Dublagent66 on February 26, 2020, 07:28:02 AM
All the panic over this stupid virus is making the market volatile and my brokerage account is losing money.  No one has noticed that the Dow has taken a fucking dump over the last 2 days?
Oh I noticed. I've lost more value in my investments in the last 2 days than my salary will pay over the next month and a half. That's kind of crazy. But I'm invested for the long haul, so a little volatility now isn't a big deal.

Same.  I'm not retiring anytime soon so I'm not too worried about the market shaking a bit in the short term.

MirrorMask

It's also something new. Hopefully the experience gained by this whole ordeal will become useful next time there's something similar.

Northern Lion

I have seen that in the news.  This virus just might be the poison that finally topples our bull market run here in the US.  It's the longest in history and it just may end this year because of this virus stuff.

The funny thing is, it still isn't near as bad as the flu, and yet it is causing such a gigantic amount of chaos.  The conspiracy theorist in me almost wants to think it was planned.

government criticism in China ended
Hong Kong protests ended
Focus on NK's nucular tests ended
The push in the media about a coming recession here in the US (even though there's been no evidence) just may finally be realized.

This might just be crazy talk, but this is what I've noticed.

Lonk

Quote from: cramx3 on February 26, 2020, 07:36:02 AM
Quote from: lordxizor on February 26, 2020, 07:29:50 AM
Quote from: Dublagent66 on February 26, 2020, 07:28:02 AM
All the panic over this stupid virus is making the market volatile and my brokerage account is losing money.  No one has noticed that the Dow has taken a fucking dump over the last 2 days?
Oh I noticed. I've lost more value in my investments in the last 2 days than my salary will pay over the next month and a half. That's kind of crazy. But I'm invested for the long haul, so a little volatility now isn't a big deal.

Same.  I'm not retiring anytime soon so I'm not too worried about the market shaking a bit in the short term.

I was thinking how this is reminding of the swine flu outbreak a decade ago. I was wondering how it affected the market back then and found this. obviously, Coronavirus is still fresh and we don't know how (or if) it will bounce back.


Adami

Quote from: Northern Lion on February 26, 2020, 07:45:34 AM
I have seen that in the news.  This virus just might be the poison that finally topples our bull market run here in the US.  It's the longest in history and it just may end this year because of this virus stuff.

The funny thing is, it still isn't near as bad as the flu, and yet it is causing such a gigantic amount of chaos.  The conspiracy theorist in me almost wants to think it was planned.

government criticism in China ended
Hong Kong protests ended
Focus on NK's nucular tests ended
The push in the media about a coming recession here in the US (even though there's been no evidence) just may finally be realized.

This might just be crazy talk, but this is what I've noticed.

It wasn't planned.

SwedishGoose

Quote from: cramx3 on February 24, 2020, 05:37:52 PM
I did read another doctor type says 60-70 percent of the world will have been infected by it come the fall.  I don't know, but I'm almost anticipating getting this flu/cold at some point next fall.  Luckily I am in good health so it's not truly worrisome to my immediate self, but I can imagine lots of elderly and young who aren't healthy to potentially die off from this once it gets out there to everyone to consume.

If he is correct and we count on a moryalityrate of 3% there could be about 140 million deaths from this....

So this could potentially be really bad

Let's hope it can be stopped

MirrorMask

Quote from: Northern Lion on February 26, 2020, 07:45:34 AM
The funny thing is, it still isn't near as bad as the flu, and yet it is causing such a gigantic amount of chaos.  The conspiracy theorist in me almost wants to think it was planned.

government criticism in China ended
Hong Kong protests ended
Focus on NK's nucular tests ended
The push in the media about a coming recession here in the US (even though there's been no evidence) just may finally be realized.

All of this at the "simple" price of a uber gazillion of money lost for all kind of sectors, be it tourism, economy or worldwide production? come on.  There's no way the "man hidden in Denver or wherever the shadow government resides" calls China's president and says "so buddy, you got issues and we got too, how about we spread a virus that will cripple for months the world's economy making all of our life suck so bad just to distract people a bit?"

Adami

Quote from: MirrorMask on February 26, 2020, 08:11:15 AM
Quote from: Northern Lion on February 26, 2020, 07:45:34 AM
The funny thing is, it still isn't near as bad as the flu, and yet it is causing such a gigantic amount of chaos.  The conspiracy theorist in me almost wants to think it was planned.

government criticism in China ended
Hong Kong protests ended
Focus on NK's nucular tests ended
The push in the media about a coming recession here in the US (even though there's been no evidence) just may finally be realized.

All of this at the "simple" price of a uber gazillion of money lost for all kind of sectors, be it tourism, economy or worldwide production? come on.  There's no way the "man hidden in Denver or wherever the shadow government resides" calls China's president and says "so buddy, you got issues and we got too, how about we spread a virus that will cripple for months the world's economy making all of our life suck so bad just to distract people a bit?"

You're WAY off base here bud.


It's Tucson Arizona, not Denver. Sheesh. You think Lizard people are going to thrive in Denver?

Luoto

#150
Quote from: cramx3 on February 24, 2020, 05:37:52 PM
Italy seems to be the next big hot spot, but what I was reading online was that the thought is Italy may have the most accurate count and is a good data point compared to China for tracking the spread.  Italy's numbers are high and it could be because they are on top of it, hopefully.

Coronavirus isn't a quick killer, and the fact so many have died within days from the quick accumulation of confirmed cases suggests that there could already be thousands infected or at least carrying the virus. Also, a case of coronavirus was just confirmed in Helsinki where a working age woman had returned from Milan. Keep in mind the incubation period can be up to 14 days. The data may still be more reliable than China's though, even if confirmed cases were just the tip of an iceberg.

cramx3

And confirmed in South America now too.  It's all over the world besides Antarctica

jingle.boy

Alarming news from Toronto's newest case - patient was back home from travel for 9 days before showing symptoms.

They traveled from Iran.

A) huge potential for community transmission
B) wasn't from China.  So people traveling from anywhere that has had outbreaks are now spreading the disease.

I'm not sure that I'm The Stand or 12 Monkey's level of worried .... yet.  But I'm getting there.
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cramx3

Yea, Iran is pretty bad so it's no surprise.  The incubation period being so long, it's impossible to know who is carrying it.  It will be everywhere, it seems inevitable at this point. 

Northern Lion

Quote from: Adami on February 26, 2020, 08:13:28 AM
Quote from: MirrorMask on February 26, 2020, 08:11:15 AM
Quote from: Northern Lion on February 26, 2020, 07:45:34 AM
The funny thing is, it still isn't near as bad as the flu, and yet it is causing such a gigantic amount of chaos.  The conspiracy theorist in me almost wants to think it was planned.

government criticism in China ended
Hong Kong protests ended
Focus on NK's nucular tests ended
The push in the media about a coming recession here in the US (even though there's been no evidence) just may finally be realized.

All of this at the "simple" price of a uber gazillion of money lost for all kind of sectors, be it tourism, economy or worldwide production? come on.  There's no way the "man hidden in Denver or wherever the shadow government resides" calls China's president and says "so buddy, you got issues and we got too, how about we spread a virus that will cripple for months the world's economy making all of our life suck so bad just to distract people a bit?"

You're WAY off base here bud.


It's Tucson Arizona, not Denver. Sheesh. You think Lizard people are going to thrive in Denver?

:lol

MirrorMask

Quote from: jingle.boy on February 26, 2020, 11:44:22 AM
I'm not sure that I'm The Stand or 12 Monkey's level of worried .... yet.  But I'm getting there.

Well, if you're worried, start following these rules suggested by Italy's health ministery that I think work well for everyone, as simple as they might be.

1. Wash often your hands

2. Avoid close contact with people suffering from breathing infections

3. Don't touch the nose, the eyes or the mouth with your hands

4. Cover the mouth and the nose if you sneeze

5. Don't take antiviral drugs or antibiotics unless prescripted by a doctor

6. Clean surfaces with alcohol or disinfectant products

7. Use a mask only if you're suffering from the disease or you're assisting ill people

8. Products made in China and packages arriving from China are not dangerous

9. Pets are not dangerous

10. Call the medical authorities if you're back from China since less than 14 days (well, this is kinda moot by now, health procedures and instructions given to the population vary from nation to nation)

cramx3

While that all sounds good, I read the virus can be contracted through your eyes and typical hand cleaners may not actually help here.  I think the unknowns are more scary than what we actually know right now.  As I said before, I'm not personally worried although I expect this to get much worse at this rate.  It's the elder and sickly who should be worried, specifically the ones who may still be getting out and about in very public areas.

vtgrad

Quote from: cramx3 on February 26, 2020, 07:36:02 AM
Quote from: Harmony on February 25, 2020, 07:48:45 PM
Anyone think there will be a summer Olympics this year?   :sad:

I saw a headline saying they are waiting to see how bad it is come May, but it's definitely on the table to be cancelled or postponed.

Quote from: lordxizor on February 26, 2020, 07:29:50 AM
Quote from: Dublagent66 on February 26, 2020, 07:28:02 AM
All the panic over this stupid virus is making the market volatile and my brokerage account is losing money.  No one has noticed that the Dow has taken a fucking dump over the last 2 days?
Oh I noticed. I've lost more value in my investments in the last 2 days than my salary will pay over the next month and a half. That's kind of crazy. But I'm invested for the long haul, so a little volatility now isn't a big deal.

Same.  I'm not retiring anytime soon so I'm not too worried about the market shaking a bit in the short term.

Same... but kind of calmed a bit today from a percentage perspective when viewed versus the last two days... the train was looking for a reason slow down and it found one with the virus.  Maybe a good time to dip-buy the big boys that have taken a hit (GOOG, AAPL, Amazon, etc), maybe even TSLA depending on what's done with the new China plant.

I honestly expected crypto to surge a bit as it's moved in tandem with Gold this year... but a dip now is a good entry point for reward halving in May.  Hard to scale how the virus will host with crypto.

A co-worker in one of our other offices told my wife that the local hospital is receiving training for COVID and expects a 40% mortality rate (co-worker's cousin is a RN)... I proceeded to call BS on the mortality rate and looked at the Spanish Flu numbers to try and compare.  Based on the current reported numbers of COVID, the case mortality rate is 3.4%, Spanish Flu was a 2-3% case mortality rate depending on what data you view.  In the US, Spanish Flu case mortality rate was less than 1% and we were in the midst of a World War and sending sickened troops home for treatment (the sickest of the sick, which quickened the spread here).  40% mortality rate would be Contagion style and we'd have serious social and political disruptions I'm assuming.  Honestly, depending on how many people that nurse spoke too and assuming that the COVID deaths haven't been grossly under-reported (and somehow she "knows" about it), I think she should maybe be reprimanded by the HMO.  Enough of that kind of talk gets around and you've got real panic in my neck of woods.

I don't hear run-down boot heals clocking up I-81 yet... but I do hear a sweet guitar.  :biggrin:

Harmony

So good news for us here in America.  Trump has appointed Pence in charge of COVID-19.  No doubt the same man who claimed in 2000 that there is no causal link between smoking and lung cancer (despite the link being established in 1964) can put his expertise to the test and ensure all Americans (except the gay ones) are kept safe from disease.  Sweet.

I'm feeling safer already.

cramx3

Well Eddie Trunk is on twitter saying he was on a flight with a dr coming to be on TVs tomorrow in NYC go discuss the first case of it in the US. Take it for what it's worth, but it won't be surprising to see it here already.

axeman90210

Quote from: Harmony on February 26, 2020, 08:25:56 PM
So good news for us here in America.  Trump has appointed Pence in charge of COVID-19.  No doubt the same man who claimed in 2000 that there is no causal link between smoking and lung cancer (despite the link being established in 1964) can put his expertise to the test and ensure all Americans (except the gay ones) are kept safe from disease.  Sweet.

I'm feeling safer already.

We'll be fine. He'll set up some Coronavirus Conversion Camps and we'll just electroshock the sick people until they're healthy again. It'll be fine.

ZKX-2099


Chino

I like how the guy that we put in charge of the outbreak is a guy who doesn't believe in science.

kaos2900

The thing I don't understand is that the "normal" flu is still around and more deadly than this new virus. So I'm having a hard time understanding why everyone is freaking out.

MirrorMask

Quote from: kaos2900 on February 27, 2020, 07:14:58 AM
The thing I don't understand is that the "normal" flu is still around and more deadly than this new virus. So I'm having a hard time understanding why everyone is freaking out.

Because it spreads way easier, we don't fully know yet how it works, and there is no vaccine yet.

lordxizor

Quote from: kaos2900 on February 27, 2020, 07:14:58 AM
The thing I don't understand is that the "normal" flu is still around and more deadly than this new virus. So I'm having a hard time understanding why everyone is freaking out.
I think the death rate is higher for the corona virus than for the flu. But yeah, the flu kills a lot of people in the US every year and we barely mention it. I'm certainly a little nervous about corona, but more due to the potential panic if we see widespread illness in the US than from the actual threat of getting sick.

cramx3

Quote from: kaos2900 on February 27, 2020, 07:14:58 AM
The thing I don't understand is that the "normal" flu is still around and more deadly than this new virus. So I'm having a hard time understanding why everyone is freaking out.

If it is even close to the death rate of the flu, it could over load every hospital in the country.  There's some bad potential here beyond just the death rate.  It seems inevitable with how this is spreading.  I walk into work and on CNN in the lobby is someone in the US is confirmed but the origin is unknown.  Now that is why people are worried.  It seems uncontainable.  I don't think we should panic or anything, it's not the end of the world.  It does seem like a lot of people will die though.

MirrorMask

Cramx3 mentioned hospital overload, and he's absolutely right, I forgot that. If everybody is busy attending to scores and scores and scores of people who are hospitalized / put in quarantine for the virus, who's gonna attend to you when you need a "normal" surgey? granted, the hospital is not selling a TV, "sorry, we don't have anymore, come back later", if you need surgery you'll have one, but such a fast spreading virus puts an insane stress on the load of work the staff of the hospitals have to do.

Chino

Quote from: kaos2900 on February 27, 2020, 07:14:58 AM
The thing I don't understand is that the "normal" flu is still around and more deadly than this new virus. So I'm having a hard time understanding why everyone is freaking out.

The flu doesn't usually kill people under 50.

Northern Lion

We have the first confirmed case in my state.  They were on that cruse ship, but that's enough to get things started.  It doesn't look like quarantines are working very well.

I'm overwieght but otherwise in good health, and my family is healthy as well.  I feel like I shouldn't be too worried, but it has killed a few doctors that were my age and younger. 

MirrorMask

Quote from: Northern Lion on February 27, 2020, 08:13:49 AM
We have the first confirmed case in my state.  They were on that cruse ship, but that's enough to get things started.  It doesn't look like quarantines are working very well.

I'm overwieght but otherwise in good health, and my family is healthy as well.  I feel like I shouldn't be too worried, but it has killed a few doctors that were my age and younger.

Well, do your part - wash often your hands, especially if you're touching stuff when outside, sneeze / cough in your inner forearm, and don't touch your eyes, mouth and nose with your hands. Hope everyone else does the same so nobody on public transports or the likes coughes, however accidentally, in your face.

romdrums

Quote from: axeman90210 on February 26, 2020, 09:06:21 PM
Quote from: Harmony on February 26, 2020, 08:25:56 PM
So good news for us here in America.  Trump has appointed Pence in charge of COVID-19.  No doubt the same man who claimed in 2000 that there is no causal link between smoking and lung cancer (despite the link being established in 1964) can put his expertise to the test and ensure all Americans (except the gay ones) are kept safe from disease.  Sweet.

I'm feeling safer already.

We'll be fine. He'll set up some Coronavirus Conversion Camps and we'll just electroshock the sick people until they're healthy again. It'll be fine.

Having watched how Pence handled the HIV outbreak amongst the people sharing needles in southeastern Indiana when he was governor here, I have all the confidence in the world that he will be just as incompetent and inept. 

DragonAttack

^
Yup.

Only caught a brief thing on MSNBC this morning from a noted physician. 0.1% of those who get the flu die, while 2% of those who get this virus die. That's 20x more in that context.   Scary.
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vtgrad

Quote from: DragonAttack on February 27, 2020, 09:23:38 AM
^
Yup.

Only caught a brief thing on MSNBC this morning from a noted physician. 0.1% of those who get the flu die, while 2% of those who get this virus die. That's 20x more in that context.   Scary.

It is a bit scary when the context is extrapolated forward (meaning we assume the same case mortality rate regardless of the number of cases)... I'm not sure we should do that with a novel virus though.  I don't really know if the pros are doing that either.

The CDC estimates (high-end estimate) a total of 41-million Flu Illnesses between 10-1-2019 and 2-15-2020 resulting in an estimated 41,000 deaths (again high-end estimate)... so .1% case mortality mentioned by the Doc is accurate.  I think it's more appropriate to extrapolate the Flu mortality rate forward regardless of the number of cases because it's not a novel virus effecting a relatively small amount of the population as is COVID (82,585 cases at last count/ 2,811 deaths/ 3.4% case mortality rate/ 33K + recovered).  That recovery rate is a promising thing I think.

ErHaO

Quote from: kaos2900 on February 27, 2020, 07:14:58 AM
The thing I don't understand is that the "normal" flu is still around and more deadly than this new virus. So I'm having a hard time understanding why everyone is freaking out.

As others have said, the death rate of this virus thus far lies significantly higher (deaths/cases).

And Influenza is a known quantity. We know what is does to people, we know how quickly it evolves, we know what the risks are, we know the long-term effects etc. etc. And as we speak dozens of research groups are generating (or trying to generate) vaccines and finding solutions for influenza forms that aren't even there yet. I believe all the components and their functions of the Influenza virus are well understood as this point (or at least to a large degree?).

This form of the coronavirus, however, has many unknown factors. For example, it is possible it can evolve into something even more nasty through an antigenic shift with another virus, or perhaps the virus has some long term health implications in healhty people we don't know yet (cancer and the likes). Caution is essential for stuff like this.



But even Influenza can be scary, the 1918 "Spanish" flu killed significantly more people than the entire first world war and had a death rate around the 5%. And it killed healthy young people as well. Though healthcare has greatly improved, such a virus could still be a huge problem (which is why there is a lot of state/EU funded research into the subject).