IMO, it's an overall movement back inside. Many businesses tried to bring some people back to offices (even at reduced rates), and the general return of some business - retail, hospitality, recreation, restaurants etc... Add in to that personal gatherings, and it's simply allowing the virus to be spread more rapidly/easily indoors. On the latter, think about it ... if, for example, the local mandate is no more than 50 people gatherings in large indoor spaces, people might just stretch that to 60 people. If it's 10 in your home, what's the big deal if you've got 12 people over. Then there's all the people who just say fuckit, and don't follow anything, people who have given up on caring, and people who just get sloppy (I know I fall into that category occasionally... forgetting to keep 6 feet between me and the next person at the Costco cashier belt).
That, that ... that's what I think.