Coronavirus

[Grappler]

That sucks Cram.  It's driving me crazy right now too.  The two counties I live in/near that are grouped together for metrics are seeing a big resurgence of cases.  My daughter was set to start in-person learning on Monday.  Yesterday, the county health department recommended remote learning for all schools and her school district cancelled the in-person learning until further notice.  It will probably be pushed back a month, closer to Thanksgiving.  I'm sure we're going to have temporary mitigation/lockdown measures put back in place too until the numbers get better.

I'm so pissed off that grown-ass adults are acting like little babies over this virus, which is screwing things up for all of the kids.  Honestly, the second wave that's happening is bumming me out too.
 Adults whine and cry that kids need to be in school (which requires them to wear a mask for about 7 hours straight), yet the same adults throw a fit when they have to wear one at a store.  My daughter took the news like a champ, but you can see that she's so disappointed that she can't be in school and we have no answers for her. 

[TAC]

 Adults whine and cry that kids need to be in school (which requires them to wear a mask for about 7 hours straight), yet the same adults throw a fit when they have to wear one at a store.

Great point.

[The Walrus]

"do as I say, not as I do"

[bosk1]

Also, while the lower chance of dying is great news, the real danger of hospitals being overwhelmed is unfortunately still relevant. If we reach the point where people cannot get treatment because there is no place/are no resources, deaths will very likely increase exponentially. Which is why so many governments keep opting for lockdown scenarios. In our case we are/were headed to such a scenario.

Absolutely this.  And this is where I see a massive twofold failure on the part of our society at large in dealing with this effectively. 

On one hand, this absolutely NEEDS to be the message that is put out there.  This is easy to understand and makes sense to most people.  And if people believe this should be the primary goal, most reasonable people would voluntarily continue taking reasonable precautions without complaining, and most reasonable governments would keep restrictions reasonably tailored to that goal rather than the scattershot approach we have seen.  But this messaging has not gotten out there consistently. 

On the other hand, hospitals and local governments have not coordinated and focused hard enough on the goal of ramping up capacity to meet rises in the curve.  Prior to the outbreak, this is where Cuomo so spectacularly failed in NY, for example (as far as being warned by his own commission of a potential viral outbreak, and advice to use budget funds to ramp up on procuring respirators and staff to deal with such a thing; he didn't, and chose to spend the money elsewhere).  The past seven months should have been spent on a full-court press to produce and procure equipment, staff, and space to deal with a rise.  That has not happened enough.

I think both of these problems clearly tie back to failure to consistently focus on the correct message.

[MirrorMask]

The past seven months should have been spent on a full-court press to produce and procure equipment, staff, and space to deal with a rise.  That has not happened enough.

But this is however the situation in the entire word. Look at Europe - give or take the situation is the same everywhere. Big cities inevitabily crowded, curfews, restrictions on number of people together, limitations. And cases rises and the stress on the national health system is immense.

You can say that this or that country has an asinine government, and in many cases it can be true. But NO ONE is doing really good. There's not a single country that found a more acceptable compromise between safety and a normal life and you can look at them and saying "look, they did it, they didn't defeat the virus but hey, they can live along with it until there will be a vaccine". That's what puzzles me, you would figure that at least someone, somewhere, would find the right balance.

[bosk1]

^I agree with all of that.  That is what I was trying to say.  I'm not trying to call out any particular countries, states, or localities. 

[ErHaO]

As with the first peak, we are sending our first patients to Germany. I am thankful our neighbours are helping out to alleviate the crisis.

Also, while the lower chance of dying is great news, the real danger of hospitals being overwhelmed is unfortunately still relevant. If we reach the point where people cannot get treatment because there is no place/are no resources, deaths will very likely increase exponentially. Which is why so many governments keep opting for lockdown scenarios. In our case we are/were headed to such a scenario.

Absolutely this.  And this is where I see a massive twofold failure on the part of our society at large in dealing with this effectively. 

On one hand, this absolutely NEEDS to be the message that is put out there.  This is easy to understand and makes sense to most people.  And if people believe this should be the primary goal, most reasonable people would voluntarily continue taking reasonable precautions without complaining, and most reasonable governments would keep restrictions reasonably tailored to that goal rather than the scattershot approach we have seen.  But this messaging has not gotten out there consistently. 

On the other hand, hospitals and local governments have not coordinated and focused hard enough on the goal of ramping up capacity to meet rises in the curve.  Prior to the outbreak, this is where Cuomo so spectacularly failed in NY, for example (as far as being warned by his own commission of a potential viral outbreak, and advice to use budget funds to ramp up on procuring respirators and staff to deal with such a thing; he didn't, and chose to spend the money elsewhere).  The past seven months should have been spent on a full-court press to produce and procure equipment, staff, and space to deal with a rise.  That has not happened enough.

I think both of these problems clearly tie back to failure to consistently focus on the correct message.

I agree.

Though even if that was/is the focus, I think in our case (The Netherlands) the scale required in the timeframe we got makes it hard to realise. I don't know enough about financials/law/procuring and training personell, but I imagine it is a mighty challenge on all of these fronts within the available amount of time. We have scaled up on several fronts significantly, mainly ICU. But not nearly on the scope required to have a true answer to the crisis. Some of our hospital leaders have commented that in our case it is not possible to scale up much more than this quickly enough.

One thing I do know is that obtaining materials can/will be a challenge for us. We heavily relied on the global economy, meaning a lot of equipment and disposables aren't produced in our country. Even something as simple as gloves has seen a three fold price increase and at my work we had to change supplier for certain products several times.

[Chino]

On the other hand, hospitals and local governments have not coordinated and focused hard enough on the goal of ramping up capacity to meet rises in the curve.  Prior to the outbreak, this is where Cuomo so spectacularly failed in NY, for example (as far as being warned by his own commission of a potential viral outbreak, and advice to use budget funds to ramp up on procuring respirators and staff to deal with such a thing; he didn't, and chose to spend the money elsewhere).  The past seven months should have been spent on a full-court press to produce and procure equipment, staff, and space to deal with a rise.  That has not happened enough.

I think both of these problems clearly tie back to failure to consistently focus on the correct message.

What can be done about physical building capacity though? I think that's the big issue in a lot of places. You can have all the ventilators and staff in the world, but there's a finite number of square feet available. China built a number of new hospitals in a matter of weeks to accommodate and contain the surge. I don't know if any of the locals governments and/or hospitals in my state could pull something like that off.

[Stadler]

They can't.  That sounds like a bad thing, but it's really a matter of willpower and brute force than any real "capability".  Without saying too much, my ex works in the healthcare industry, and I've first hand heard descriptions of some of those facilities.   Cabinets with rolls of wire stuffed in; electric panels wired but not connected; non-essential utilities (fire, potable water) not connected or connected in a manner that is below what we would consider code...

Not to say we couldn't mobilize temporary facilities, but it's a matter of will, funding, and political capital.

[emtee]

We've been pretty steady here in FL lately, running between 1.5K and 2.5K new cases per day but yesterday we jumped up to 5.5K.

The thing that never dies.

[The Walrus]

Florida: God's Waiting Room, also shaped like a hung dong

[Cool Chris]

Florida: God's Waiting Room

also shaped like a hung dong

pissing on Cuba.

[Ben_Jamin]

On the other hand, hospitals and local governments have not coordinated and focused hard enough on the goal of ramping up capacity to meet rises in the curve.  Prior to the outbreak, this is where Cuomo so spectacularly failed in NY, for example (as far as being warned by his own commission of a potential viral outbreak, and advice to use budget funds to ramp up on procuring respirators and staff to deal with such a thing; he didn't, and chose to spend the money elsewhere).  The past seven months should have been spent on a full-court press to produce and procure equipment, staff, and space to deal with a rise.  That has not happened enough.

I think both of these problems clearly tie back to failure to consistently focus on the correct message.

What can be done about physical building capacity though? I think that's the big issue in a lot of places. You can have all the ventilators and staff in the world, but there's a finite number of square feet available. China built a number of new hospitals in a matter of weeks to accommodate and contain the surge. I don't know if any of the locals governments and/or hospitals in my state could pull something like that off.

You know that made me wonder. If you were to put all the people in the world Side by Side on every Land Mass in the world. Would we be able to all be socially distancing 6ft. apart?

[lordxizor]

On the other hand, hospitals and local governments have not coordinated and focused hard enough on the goal of ramping up capacity to meet rises in the curve.  Prior to the outbreak, this is where Cuomo so spectacularly failed in NY, for example (as far as being warned by his own commission of a potential viral outbreak, and advice to use budget funds to ramp up on procuring respirators and staff to deal with such a thing; he didn't, and chose to spend the money elsewhere).  The past seven months should have been spent on a full-court press to produce and procure equipment, staff, and space to deal with a rise.  That has not happened enough.

I think both of these problems clearly tie back to failure to consistently focus on the correct message.

What can be done about physical building capacity though? I think that's the big issue in a lot of places. You can have all the ventilators and staff in the world, but there's a finite number of square feet available. China built a number of new hospitals in a matter of weeks to accommodate and contain the surge. I don't know if any of the locals governments and/or hospitals in my state could pull something like that off.

You know that made me wonder. If you were to put all the people in the world Side by Side on every Land Mass in the world. Would we be able to all be socially distancing 6ft. apart?

Easily, if I'm understanding your question correctly. To put it into perspective, you can fit 1,560 people on an American football field and have everyone be 6 feet apart. There are approximately 285 people per square mile of inhabitable land on earth (which is less than half of the actual land on earth).

[cramx3]

On the other hand, hospitals and local governments have not coordinated and focused hard enough on the goal of ramping up capacity to meet rises in the curve.  Prior to the outbreak, this is where Cuomo so spectacularly failed in NY, for example (as far as being warned by his own commission of a potential viral outbreak, and advice to use budget funds to ramp up on procuring respirators and staff to deal with such a thing; he didn't, and chose to spend the money elsewhere).  The past seven months should have been spent on a full-court press to produce and procure equipment, staff, and space to deal with a rise.  That has not happened enough.

I think both of these problems clearly tie back to failure to consistently focus on the correct message.

What can be done about physical building capacity though? I think that's the big issue in a lot of places. You can have all the ventilators and staff in the world, but there's a finite number of square feet available. China built a number of new hospitals in a matter of weeks to accommodate and contain the surge. I don't know if any of the locals governments and/or hospitals in my state could pull something like that off.

Let's not forget we actually were able to find a way to accommodate quickly via this and it went unused so... https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/politics/navy-hospital-ship-comfort-new-york-coronavirus/index.html but also, that article talks about converting other spaces to hospital beds that were used.  We actually proved we can do this and honestly, I think we could do it again and even better if needed.  Gaining supplies is much harder though, PPE and ventilators were a major issue and I'm not sure if we resolved it enough to deal with another surge.

[Luoto]

The number of cases has started rising here in my city, and it's the first real test for our local contact tracing. So far the situation is very much under control as almost all sources of infection are known and all who are exposed have been contacted. The infection chains are largely related to sports clubs.

[Evermind]

I had to fly to another city for work yesterday, and I've never seen a plane this empty. There was no one else in my row, and it was on Friday evening no less. Before Covid that plane would've been packed.

[MirrorMask]

Anyone else from time to time goes to read the first pages of this thread? boy, how the world has changed. No one, even the more "this is serious, it's better to take precautions" folks, could have ever imagined what was about to come.

[Grappler]

Anyone else from time to time goes to read the first pages of this thread? boy, how the world has changed. No one, even the more "this is serious, it's better to take precautions" folks, could have ever imagined what was about to come.

Haha - I just did that.  8 months ago, I wasn't worried about the virus at all.  That changed quickly once things started getting bad in my state and area. 

[Stadler]

Anyone else from time to time goes to read the first pages of this thread? boy, how the world has changed. No one, even the more "this is serious, it's better to take precautions" folks, could have ever imagined what was about to come.

It's interesting watching certain reality TV shows - I watch Married At First Sight, for example - and watching them get informed in real time.   The amazing thing for me was, now that I'm in it full stop, I sort of expected it to be a hard start back in February, but watching those shows, it was anything but.   

[MirrorMask]

I immediately took it seriously, and I couldn't anyway imagine what was to come. To the day it was implemented I probably couldn't even imagine a nationwide lockdown, that was just a weird thing you saw in China because it's a faraway country with a different culture and, on top of that, a dictatorship. I expected that we'd sacrifice the spring to slowly restart in summer, I still remember someone having to visit Italy from the forum and telling him "I guess by late summer it should have all blown over".

Right now? I'm already mentally preparing myself for no concerts in summer 2021.

[The Walrus]

Late March and most of April were nervewracking for me but after that... life's been the same. Literally nothing has changed, other than I wear a mask in places. I'm over it; life's back to normal as far as I'm concerned over here. Gotta move on at some point. Glad I don't live in a city.

I guess the only downside is that I refuse to go to the gym but that's mostly because they still mandate masks and I'm not wearing a mask when I'm already trying to work myself to a point of breathing heavy.

[Phoenix87x]

As a single person with no kids, besides wearing the mask my life is pretty much the same as it was before covid. My state has almost 30 other states travel restricted and therefore my work forbids me from traveling to them without doing an unpaid 14 day quarantine. So that part is getting old.

Thank holy god that I don't have kids though, because I hear about what its like for the parents I work with. What a mess.

[gmillerdrake]

We should be at the point now where masks are mandatory but that’s it. Everything should be open. The initial shut down wasn’t about making sure people didn’t get it.....it was about not overwhelming the hospitals.

Mandatory masks will limit the spread to the point of hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. Yes, 200k+ people have died and that’s horrible but a large percentage of those people that died had underlying health issues. Doesn’t make the deaths any less significant.....only that we should also be focused on the survivability if the virus as week which is extremely high. When you look at pet capita models the US is one of the lowest as far as deaths and infections.

I’m not one to doubt the contagious nature of the virus but I also don’t think keeping things shut down is the answer as well. Diligent mask mandates (this is where trump has failed) and common sense social distancing measures should be all that’s needed.

[Grappler]

We should be at the point now where masks are mandatory but that’s it. Everything should be open. The initial shut down wasn’t about making sure people didn’t get it.....it was about not overwhelming the hospitals.

In Illinois, hospitals are now getting overwhelmed again.  So here come the shutdowns again....because masks aren't mandatory, and even if they were, people are refusing to wear them and business are refusing to close.  So it is what it is at this point.  I like our governor and think he has done the absolute right things to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, but the politicization of the virus and mask wearing are continuing to create issues for the hospitals. 

[The Walrus]

We should be at the point now where masks are mandatory but that’s it. Everything should be open. The initial shut down wasn’t about making sure people didn’t get it.....it was about not overwhelming the hospitals.

In Illinois, hospitals are now getting overwhelmed again.  So here come the shutdowns again....because masks aren't mandatory, and even if they were, people are refusing to wear them and business are refusing to close.  So it is what it is at this point.  I like our governor and think he has done the absolute right things to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, but the politicization of the virus and mask wearing are continuing to create issues for the hospitals.

100% agreed, but none of the rubes want to talk about that, they just want to bitch about his toilets (which is a valid but hilarious argument, but completely irrelevant)

[cramx3]

Right now? I'm already mentally preparing myself for no concerts in summer 2021.

I'm mentally prepared for this as well, I just don't see any concerts of the normal type happening for awhile unless this virus mutates to something less serious or we have an effective vaccine in early 2021. 

NJ is starting to impose tougher restrictions in hot spots (Newark for example) and our governor has asked (not required) that no one leave the state unless its for work or groceries. 

We went from ~300 cases a day and single digit deaths per day over the summer to now ~1200 cases a day and double digit deaths (one day we hit 2k cases which was where we were at back in May).  Some of it is because we are testing more and more, but our R has been rising.  We had it to under 1 in the summer and now it's around 1.2.  It's legit spreading quickly, not just overly testing.  I expect we'll see more upticks after the holidays and maybe a very dark winter.  I really hope not, but I don't feel optimistic about this at all.

We should be at the point now where masks are mandatory but that’s it. Everything should be open.

Even with my pessimism, I actually agree with this.  I don't think our society can handle another full blown shut down.  I think the best is to force people to mask up and leave things open in their limited capacity.  I think that's really our best bet at holding the line between health and economy.  And keep confirming the idea that social distancing is for the best of everyone.

[gmillerdrake]

We should be at the point now where masks are mandatory but that’s it. Everything should be open. The initial shut down wasn’t about making sure people didn’t get it.....it was about not overwhelming the hospitals.

In Illinois, hospitals are now getting overwhelmed again.  So here come the shutdowns again....because masks aren't mandatory, and even if they were, people are refusing to wear them and business are refusing to close.  So it is what it is at this point.  I like our governor and think he has done the absolute right things to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, but the politicization of the virus and mask wearing are continuing to create issues for the hospitals.

100% agreed, but none of the rubes want to talk about that, they just want to bitch about his toilets (which is a valid but hilarious argument, but completely irrelevant)

I agree as well. All of the models show even with just 85% of the American public wearing masks the virus’s spread would be greatly reduced to manageable numbers. Add in good hygiene and the social distancing measures and this thing is manageable.

And that’s been the beef all along. From the top (President) to the local level the leadership on this has been non existent.....or sporadic at Best with conflicting ideologies. The fact that our country didn’t have a unified plan and vision for this is unacceptable. Historically things like this are when the two sides would put aside differences and do what was best for the American people. The fact this was politicized is just a sign of the times and an outright shame.

[Chino]

We should be at the point now where masks are mandatory but that’s it. Everything should be open. The initial shut down wasn’t about making sure people didn’t get it.....it was about not overwhelming the hospitals.

In Illinois, hospitals are now getting overwhelmed again.  So here come the shutdowns again....because masks aren't mandatory, and even if they were, people are refusing to wear them and business are refusing to close.  So it is what it is at this point.  I like our governor and think he has done the absolute right things to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, but the politicization of the virus and mask wearing are continuing to create issues for the hospitals.

100% agreed, but none of the rubes want to talk about that, they just want to bitch about his toilets (which is a valid but hilarious argument, but completely irrelevant)

I agree as well. All of the models show even with just 85% of the American public wearing masks the virus’s spread would be greatly reduced to manageable numbers. Add in good hygiene and the social distancing measures and this thing is manageable.

And that’s been the beef all along. From the top (President) to the local level the leadership on this has been non existent.....or sporadic at Best with conflicting ideologies. The fact that our country didn’t have a unified plan and vision for this is unacceptable. Historically things like this are when the two sides would put aside differences and do what was best for the American people. The fact this was politicized is just a sign of the times and an outright shame.

This whole ordeal has convinced me that such a plan could never exist. Such a plan would require direct orders from the federal government with consequences for not following those orders, and that would never fly. We could have all the plans in place that we want, but there's clearly a large segment of this population that will just straight up refuse to cooperate. I just don't get it. People don't seem to object to fines or more severe punishment for speeding, illegal dumping, or child abuse. What is it about "Where a mask out while out in public" or "You can't have a gathering with over 40 people" that's so controversial? The "slippery slope" argument only goes so far, and to play that card (not implying you are) in this scenario just seems foolish.

[Grappler]

[This whole ordeal has convinced me that such a plan could never exist. Such a plan would require direct orders from the federal government with consequences for not following those orders, and that would never fly. We could have all the plans in place that we want, but there's clearly a large segment of this population that will just straight up refuse to cooperate. I just don't get it. People don't seem to object to fines or more severe punishment for speeding, illegal dumping, or child abuse. What is it about "Where a mask out while out in public" or "You can't have a gathering with over 40 people" that's so controversial? The "slippery slope" argument only goes so far, and to play that card (not implying you are) in this scenario just seems foolish.

I really believe a different President could have gotten out in front of the virus.  It would have been possible to get all 50 governors on a phone call, tell them what to prepare for, advise them on how the federal government could help them if needed, that it doesn't matter what political party a state is led by when the virus is coming for all of them at some point.  The response is still led by the states, but a national message of unity and fighting the virus together as opposed to division down party-lines. 

What actually happened just demonstrates the results of having a President with zero political experience and the inability to handle a true crisis. 

[hunnus2000]

[This whole ordeal has convinced me that such a plan could never exist. Such a plan would require direct orders from the federal government with consequences for not following those orders, and that would never fly. We could have all the plans in place that we want, but there's clearly a large segment of this population that will just straight up refuse to cooperate. I just don't get it. People don't seem to object to fines or more severe punishment for speeding, illegal dumping, or child abuse. What is it about "Where a mask out while out in public" or "You can't have a gathering with over 40 people" that's so controversial? The "slippery slope" argument only goes so far, and to play that card (not implying you are) in this scenario just seems foolish.

I really believe a different President could have gotten out in front of the virus.  It would have been possible to get all 50 governors on a phone call, tell them what to prepare for, advise them on how the federal government could help them if needed, that it doesn't matter what political party a state is led by when the virus is coming for all of them at some point.  The response is still led by the states, but a national message of unity and fighting the virus together as opposed to division down party-lines. 

What actually happened just demonstrates the results of having a President with zero political experience and the inability to handle a true crisis.

^^^^^

This. 150%

[The Walrus]

The response might be led by the states, and a better leader might have gotten out in front of it, but it would've have made a lick of difference to any of the hundreds of thousands of rubes out there who think wearing masks is bullshit or for pussies etc.

Hell every time my old man has to put on a mask he mutters, "fuckin' bullshit" as if it's some kind of big deal or that he'll have to wear it longer than 60 seconds, despite almost never putting one on anyway. What a giant baby 

[jingle.boy]

We should be at the point now where masks are mandatory but that’s it. Everything should be open. The initial shut down wasn’t about making sure people didn’t get it.....it was about not overwhelming the hospitals.

Mandatory masks will limit the spread to the point of hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. Yes, 200k+ people have died and that’s horrible but a large percentage of those people that died had underlying health issues. Doesn’t make the deaths any less significant.....only that we should also be focused on the survivability if the virus as week which is extremely high. When you look at pet capita models the US is one of the lowest as far as deaths and infections.

Come again?  Per the below (as of 2 weeks ago), the US is 7th highest in per capita.  Although I think the below graph doesn't include deep 3rd world countries (eg Peru, Ecuador ...).  Though, with over 200 countries on the planet, being in the top 20 doesn't make you "one of the lowest"

"Countries that were unable to control their outbreaks have tended to suffer the most economic pain"
source: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/



I do agree on your last part.  wide-scale macro lockdowns are not the best approach.  Contact tracing, and targeted restrictions (along with masks + hygiene + distancing) are the simplest, most non-restrictive tactics that deliver great benefit.  Lockdowns are simply a means to the end goal of enforcing the distancing aspect.

[jingle.boy]

The response might be led by the states, and a better leader might have gotten out in front of it, but it would've have made a lick of difference to any of the hundreds of thousands of rubes out there who think wearing masks is bullshit or for pussies etc.

Agreed... but why do people think that way?  How was that perception initiated and then propagated - and continually done so today?  I can't help but believe it was largely a political stance.

[The Walrus]

The response might be led by the states, and a better leader might have gotten out in front of it, but it would've have made a lick of difference to any of the hundreds of thousands of rubes out there who think wearing masks is bullshit or for pussies etc.

Agreed... but why do people think that way?  How was that perception initiated and then propagated - and continually done so today?  I can't help but believe it was largely a political stance.

If you really think a change in leadership is all that it would take to sway all the minds of those anti-maskers, I'm not sure what to tell you, man. These people would be ignoring the mandate no matter who put it in place. Trump could come out and demand a mask mandate yesterday and tons of people would give him the finger and go about their business. Humans aren't going to just go along a mandatory mask mandate, not here, anyway. Especially when you can, like, wear it in the restaurant, but you can take it off when you sit down to eat? Then what's the point of wearing it in the restaurant at all? And the slope gets more slippery from there. As soon as you allow leniency or certain places to take it off, people will run with it and eventually go, "Why even bother?"

Switching out a republican for a dem, especially at this point, really isn't going to make a large number of people change their behavior 9 months into this. I just don't have confidence in human nature - or American culture - to pretend like a paradigm shift is going to happen just because a politician mandates masks. ESPECIALLY in places like my town where life has, more or less, gone on as usual without any interruptions.