Coronavirus

[Stadler]

Brooke Baldwin has tested positive.

My condolences, Stadler.

I'm not a monster. I hope her and her family are safe and survive this. It's not to be trifled with, from what I understand.   

[KevShmev]

Brooke Baldwin has tested positive.

My condolences, Stadler.

I'm not a monster. I hope her and her family are safe and survive this. It's not to be trifled with, from what I understand.

Oh, for sure.

I was trying to add a little levity here amongst all of the gloom and doom.  It is not easy, but I am trying to remain on an even keel over here.

[Harmony]

Not at all saying that.  Trump clearly bears responsibility here and no question about that.   But that misinformation doesn't SOLELY explain where we are, and for others to make that the "biggest issue" is one that doesn't account for a good percentage of our problems (maybe even a majority of our problems) doesn't make sense to me.  It just doesn't have good correlation on this issue.  Even Drs. Fauci and Birx were reluctant to agree that we can make some of the claims that are being made regarding the "timeliness" of the response (it's in the March 31 Task Force briefing, if you're interested.)

I'm not arguing "whataboutism" here, nor blaming Democrats; I'm VERY CLEARLY saying it's a bipartisan concern here, but just to document my claim that the facts don't support the narrative:

The immediate U.S. hotspots?  By this map:

Seattle, WA (BLUE state, by a lot)
New York, NY (BLUE state)
San Francisco, CA (BLUE state, by a lot)
Colorado (BLUE state)
Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; and New Orleans, LA (BLUEST sector of a red state, but ALL with Democratic governors)

Then look at the second map in the link I gave, with the "hidden hot spots":
Mississippi, Nashville, and southern Georgia fit the narrative, but what about:

Vermont?  BLUE State (and home to Mr. Sanders, though Republican governor)
Atlanta?  BLUE sector of a red state.
Virginia/Maryland?  BLUE state.
Montana? Red state but BLUE governor

We here in Connecticut are being warned that we're the next big one.  BLUE state.

Seems to me that this virus doesn't check your voter enrollment card before digging in (just trying to be funny; there's no statement there).

I'm going to caveat this whole post with the understanding that this gets moved to P&R.  But as less people participate there, I hope that it doesn't.

So I'm not sure I'm following some of your line of thinking here and I want to be very sure that I am.  Are you suggesting that the virus and/or the response to it are worse in blue states because of the leadership there?  Or conversely, that red states are not going to be hit as hard and/or their responses will be better because of their leadership?

[Podaar]

Urban areas, which are likely to be hit first and the hardest (by virtue of the number of people in a small geographic area) are predominately BLUE. That is all.

[Northern Lion]

Urban areas, which are likely to be hit first and the hardest (by virtue of the number of people in a small geographic area) are predominately BLUE. That is all.

That is true.  My opinion is that the closer densely populated an area the bluer it gets generally.  I don't know why that is though.  But it is neither here nor there when it comes to the virus.  I don't want anyone hurt by it no matter what their political persuasion.  But jokes are often a really good way to deal with a crisis like this.  I think attempts at levity are good 

But, it has certainly caused me to pause about the area I live.  I'm thinking the boonies will be my next move. 

[MirrorMask]

I was thinking that maybe in the near term future this whole ordeal will bring positive changes to how we lived as a society, forcing us to make some long term and surely positive changes (the very least, personal hygiene becoming finally a thing), since this is so dramatic, life changing and historical (definitively gonna do down in history, it's the most famous and historical thing to happen since 9/11 hands down).

After all in history we all ignored warning signs and woke up only from a big tragedy. Let's pick the Titanic for example. How many small, minor incidents here and there would have needed to make someone realize that safety measures on ships needed to be better? but then the Titanic sank, with an outrageous loss of life, and people finally got it that you can't have fewer lifeboats than the number of people of board (well, their total capacity I mean). I read sometime that many of the modern safety measures at sea derived from the Titanic incident.

Also airplanes hijacking were a thing, they were plenty. It took 9/11 to take the security measures to a next level. Why you can't take so many items on board and why you can't open a cabin door even if you want to? not because someday a random lunatic tried to barge into the pilots cabin with a knife. It's because two planes were hijacked by terrorists and flown into skyscrapers.

What I mean is that this so huge that there's no "phew, that was crazy, right? staying a month at home... uh well, back to the office I guess" about it. We'll feel the economical and social repercussions for months if not years, and there's no going back to the way it was exactly before. And for some aspects of everyday's life it might even be a good thing.

[Anguyen92]

Hopefully, this whole experience can bring something positive in the end.  On that note, the head pastor at the church I go to stated this on the weekly church bulletin and I like what he wrote.

In times of crisis, fear, anxiety and uncertainty, some of our best qualities and talents get set aside or go dormant. In the spirit of coming out of the tomb, now is the time to find those best qualities and let them emerge once again in our lives. What good qualities or talents might have gone dormant in us that it is time to let live again? For some It is time to recharge your old enthusiasm, your wonderful sense of humor, or the brightness that your smile brings to others.

For others it is cooking a fabulous dish, writing the comforting email, having just the right words to help people feel connected, humming a few bars, playing a few tunes on your guitar, piano or harmonica. Draw a picture, make a card, crochet a scarf , repair a leaky faucet, handcraft a gift, build a birdhouse. Whatever it may be, we all have something within us that it may be time to let the Lord's eternal life set free and live again.

Belief in the promise of eternal life changes everything. It is the difference between seeing the coronavirus as an unredeemable tragedy or a motivation to renew the promise of eternal life that is as close to us as our own hearts.

[cramx3]

Looks like it's now recommended for everyone to wear a mask or use a cloth to cover your face.  Crazy times we live in.

[Anguyen92]

Looks like it's now recommended for everyone to wear a mask or use a cloth to cover your face.  Crazy times we live in.

Looks like we will have more shortages of masks then if it hasn't happened already.

[cramx3]

Looks like it's now recommended for everyone to wear a mask or use a cloth to cover your face.  Crazy times we live in.

Looks like we will have more shortages of masks then if it hasn't happened already.

They are advising not to buy one but make one with cloth at home.  I have some crappy facemask I bought and use occassionally when spraying cleaning products in the bathroom as it would irritate me if I breathed them in.  I guess I can use that.

[Adami]

I went to buy some basic masks on Amazon. Man, I really should've seen this coming and ordered them a month ago. Ah well.

Soonest I could get delivery is 7-17 days from now. Most were 2 months away. Insanity.

[Cool Chris]

I have one N95 from work, and my wife was able to pick up some cloth ones from the corner market. I am the only one who goes anywhere (groceries, take out) so I guess the masks are out of.... an abundance of caution.

[gmillerdrake]

I’ve had a case of N95’s in my garage for quite some time. Handed out a few to family and friends today. Good thing is that you can sterilize them in the oven on 160 degrees for half hour or just let them sit for (4) days before using again. I have enough left to rotate being I’m the one who is going out on grocery runs and what not.

[TAC]

I’ve had a case of N95’s in my garage for quite some time. Handed out a few to family and friends today. Good thing is that you can sterilize them in the oven on 160 degrees for half hour or just let them sit for (4) days before using again. I have enough left to rotate being I’m the one who is going out on grocery runs and what not.

I don't remember what you do Gary. Do you sell them? Why would you have a case of them in your garage?

[gmillerdrake]

I’ve had a case of N95’s in my garage for quite some time. Handed out a few to family and friends today. Good thing is that you can sterilize them in the oven on 160 degrees for half hour or just let them sit for (4) days before using again. I have enough left to rotate being I’m the one who is going out on grocery runs and what not.

I don't remember what you do Gary. Do you sell them? Why would you have a case of them in your garage?

I work for a Healthcare System. When consumables are sent to our warehouse after they’ve passed their allowable use dates  they’re either trashed or shipped to third world countries. The US only allows these things to sit unused for so long before they have to be retired. Whenever there things that are still ‘good’ but are being trashed simply due to them not being used in time I’ll poke around in them and grab this and that.

8-10 months ago N95 masks were just something that if they weren’t used in a certain time frame would be sent to our warehouse for redistribution to 3rd world countries or even trashed.  I’ve always kept a small inventory of those and medical grade gloves on hand just because. The gloves for staining/painting or whatever and the masks for any other handyman projects that would require them. Plus, I’m an amateur ‘prepper’ and recovering conspiracy theorist so I won’t say I ‘called’ this pandemic but the odds were/are a viral pandemic was gonna happen eventually. Nothing wrong with having a few dozen healthcare grade masks and a supply of gloves on hand for family and friends.

I mean....I’ve had a healthy supply of MRE’s, non perishables, water and ammo for quite some time as well.     Our food back up is based off of living on the New Madrid fault though. That puppy snaps and we’re gonna need the couple months of non perishable food. My wife used to think I was crazy when we first were married but it’s better to be prepared and never need it than not to be and do. I’m not full blown prepper but I do have my family covered in case of emergency.

[DragonAttack]

I went out to my garage attic yesterday to bring whatever amount I had available down to use for our weekly, ever increasingly anxiety laden grocery and pharmacy trip.  Plus, it's time to go into the house attic for my annual interior roof inspection, plus I was going to spackle and sand and paint a wall in our basement.  Sadly, the elastic snaps had rotted due to the constant temperature changes, along with mice nibbling holes in most of the masks. 

(I don't have ammo, we're set for one month, but the dog would be good for about four months )

That's what I get for not abiding by a New Year's resolution.  I was going to visit Home Depot the first week in January, and make sure I had enough usable dust masks, so that in April I could go grocery shopping for the safety of myself and others in a futile search for toilet paper.  Yup, I'm sure we all made that resolution and didn't follow through with it......

[jingle.boy]

I’ve had a case of N95’s in my garage for quite some time. Handed out a few to family and friends today. Good thing is that you can sterilize them in the oven on 160 degrees for half hour or just let them sit for (4) days before using again. I have enough left to rotate being I’m the one who is going out on grocery runs and what not.

The CDC does not support the use of hot air (e.g., an oven) to dry and decontaminate N95 masks. It suggests that the dry air heating process may reduce the viral filtering capability of N95 masks (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/ppe-strategy/decontamination-reuse-respirators.html).

Though, letting them sit for 3-4 days theoretically should be fine, as all indications are that the virus doesn't really survive that long on most surfaces.

[gmillerdrake]

I’ve had a case of N95’s in my garage for quite some time. Handed out a few to family and friends today. Good thing is that you can sterilize them in the oven on 160 degrees for half hour or just let them sit for (4) days before using again. I have enough left to rotate being I’m the one who is going out on grocery runs and what not.

The CDC does not support the use of hot air (e.g., an oven) to dry and decontaminate N95 masks. It suggests that the dry air heating process may reduce the viral filtering capability of N95 masks (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/ppe-strategy/decontamination-reuse-respirators.html).

Though, letting them sit for 3-4 days theoretically should be fine, as all indications are that the virus doesn't really survive that long on most surfaces.

Good to know. I had read online that you could bake them but if open air is just as good then that’s fine.

[TAC]

I’ve had a case of N95’s in my garage for quite some time. Handed out a few to family and friends today. Good thing is that you can sterilize them in the oven on 160 degrees for half hour or just let them sit for (4) days before using again. I have enough left to rotate being I’m the one who is going out on grocery runs and what not.

I don't remember what you do Gary. Do you sell them? Why would you have a case of them in your garage?

I work for a Healthcare System. When consumables are sent to our warehouse after they’ve passed their allowable use dates  they’re either trashed or shipped to third world countries. The US only allows these things to sit unused for so long before they have to be retired. Whenever there things that are still ‘good’ but are being trashed simply due to them not being used in time I’ll poke around in them and grab this and that.

8-10 months ago N95 masks were just something that if they weren’t used in a certain time frame would be sent to our warehouse for redistribution to 3rd world countries or even trashed.  I’ve always kept a small inventory of those and medical grade gloves on hand just because. The gloves for staining/painting or whatever and the masks for any other handyman projects that would require them. Plus, I’m an amateur ‘prepper’ and recovering conspiracy theorist so I won’t say I ‘called’ this pandemic but the odds were/are a viral pandemic was gonna happen eventually. Nothing wrong with having a few dozen healthcare grade masks and a supply of gloves on hand for family and friends.

I mean....I’ve had a healthy supply of MRE’s, non perishables, water and ammo for quite some time as well.     Our food back up is based off of living on the New Madrid fault though. That puppy snaps and we’re gonna need the couple months of non perishable food. My wife used to think I was crazy when we first were married but it’s better to be prepared and never need it than not to be and do. I’m not full blown prepper but I do have my family covered in case of emergency.

I thought the masks would be related to your job.

You're at least a half blown prepper  and maybe you can tell me what a full blown prepper has that you don't.

[emtee]

I'm interested to read predictions from everyone on when
we get back to normal and what the metrics will be that enable
us to flip the switch.

[Ben_Jamin]

I don't have any predictions. But It's guaranteed that our normal is gone. We are going into a new normal. How it turns out depends on how much we are willing to sacrifice.

[MirrorMask]

I don't have any predictions. But It's guaranteed that our normal is gone. We are going into a new normal. How it turns out depends on how much we are willing to sacrifice.

I agree with this. Only when we'll have a vaccine we can consider going back to what once was considered "normal". Until then, according from nation to nation because the ways, the costumes and the habits are different and so the social realities, we'll have a gradual and cautious re-adapting to social life.

I don't think there'll be a "Victory Day" like in World War II. There won't be the "first day after the contagion has ended" to mark down on calendars. Some business will re-opens before others. Some restrictions will be lifted before others. Bars and restaurants will have fewer customers and distances will be kept. Same for cinemas. In Italy I've seen online articles discussing ways to handle the public transports, for example having a closed number accessing the subway and not being allowed on the tracks until the previous train has taken away all the allotted people.

Also, there's the small matter of how to avoiding this to happen again in the future. Both in being able to contain the next outbreak more efficiently, and how to avoid future ones. The answer is relatively simple, on paper.... you only need to go googling about it to find out that it was YEARS that the causes of pandemics have been identified as fast urbanization (that screws up ecosystems and allows wild animals to come into contact with domestic ones) coupled with overpopulation and lack of acceptble hygienic standards. So, problem solved, right? we help Africa stop being poor, we stop destroying every jungle we can find and we stop breeding so much! ............yeah, easier said than done.

Same as with global warming, basically. How do we solve global warming? well, we stop all those pesky emissions into the air! how to actually and realistically do it? well............

[ErHaO]

I'm interested to read predictions from everyone on when
we get back to normal and what the metrics will be that enable
us to flip the switch.

For us the crisis started earlier and even with social distancing (which now seems to be helping),  our experts expect the peak to be at the end of may. The trajectory of illness can be long one. The average time a patients spends on the ICU here is around 23 days. But count incubation time, initial illness, getting better etc. on top of that and from the point of infection to being better, we are speaking in months. This is offcourse for the worst cases, but as long as people are ill, they can infect others. And there are so many of these bad cases that the hospitals keep flooding. But when the hospitals are at normal levels, it is not like we can return to normal, because then you will flood them again.

We can hope that, like with many viruses, the spread will be slower in peak spring and summer, but we simply do not know that at this point. And even if that is the case, there is a realistic chance it will return when we hit autumn/winter, like other widespread viruses do.

There are scientist here and other EU countries predicting we will need significant safety measures for at least more than a year, but what those measures will entail remains to be seen.

Personally, I don't think there will be a "flip the switch" moment, rather a gradual return to (some) activities with some major changes in regards to safety. When that will happen? Who knows, I think it will differ per nation. If the summer has the same impact on this virus as it does on Influenza, we will potentially have a window where people can live under less strict rules (but still under strict rules). And hopefully a vaccine or better preparation will make us more effective against its return. However, keep in mind the common cold is still there in the summer (which is partially due to coronaviruses), so it is entirely possble the spread will keep on going.

In the end, too many factors are unknown. But this will be a major problem for a long time to come if you ask me. And as others are saying, there will be a new normal.




I must stress though, while I work in a field somewhat related to this, I am by no means an expert (I am generally busy setting up/optimizing assays for viral research/diagnostics, but that is focused on the tech, not what viruses do/how they behave. That is not part of my knowledge).

[lordxizor]

I think there will be some minor changes to social habits and people will be more aware of sanitizing and hand washing at least for a while. But I think in the long run not much will change. This will move on and we'll get complacent again. The emergency plans for having masks and other protective equipment stocked up in mass quantities will change. At the government level hopefully they will be more prepared. Hopefully China and other countries learn their lesson about not keeping stuff like this hidden when it first starts.

Honestly, I give the current state of things a couple more months until people start to say "screw this... It's not worth it. I'd rather risk getting sick than stay shut in all the time not being about to see family and friends." And businesses will eventually start pushing back on the government about having to be closed and risking bankruptcy.

[Ben_Jamin]

I feel, it's more the Testing Kits than a Vaccine that would help us get our heads out of the sand again.

In all, prevention comes down to, When was the pandemic of a virus first known by Health Entities and Governments? Once they knew it was spreading and there's no current cure, that's when they should've implemented all these lockdowns and constant sanitary habits.

These Health Entities and Governments didn't do it and now here we are. They are our leaders, and if they have any balls they'll admit they're the ones at fault for the spread of this virus.

The only thing I hope is for us to learn from this. How to be more respectful, trustworthy, honest, compassionate, and overall caring for others, ourselves, and the world. We only have one life, and one Earth. Let's not screw it up.

[cramx3]

Honestly, I give the current state of things a couple more months until people start to say "screw this... It's not worth it. I'd rather risk getting sick than stay shut in all the time not being about to see family and friends." And businesses will eventually start pushing back on the government about having to be closed and risking bankruptcy.

I hear a lot of people are already at the "screw it" point.  I expect this to go to the end of April but in May people really start saying "screw it". 

[Indiscipline]

Predictions? Poverty leading to a bit of unrest on a local scale. On a larger one - at least here in EU - a massive growth of nationalisms and bitter finger-pointing (at best) among states.

[DragonAttack]

One thing no one seems to mention:  if these 'droplets' reach the ground, where do they go?  Uhm....your shoes?  We've been removing ours, and sanitizing them after grocery shopping.

Second...many are focused so much on how this may turn around with the warmer weather.  Well, southern areas don't seem to be immune right now, and the fall/winter season in the southern hemispheres is here.  grrrrr

Oh, and then there's this       https://www.facebook.com/312383761871/photos/a.313018011871/10157423886176872/?type=3&theater

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

I mean, unless you're touching and/or licking your shoes after you come back inside, I don't see why it would be a major concern.

[DragonAttack]

Because you touch your shoes to take them off, and then touch your face, perhaps.  Or you can track what's in a store to your car and then through your house, perhaps.  And, no, I don't lick my floors either

[emtee]

I agree that the biggest factor of all will be a collective, F-this attitude. I
give it until mid May. By then, regardless of the scenario, people start
going out. About the time everybody needs a haircut badly.

[ErHaO]

One thing no one seems to mention:  if these 'droplets' reach the ground, where do they go?  Uhm....your shoes?  We've been removing ours, and sanitizing them after grocery shopping.

Second...many are focused so much on how this may turn around with the warmer weather.  Well, southern areas don't seem to be immune right now, and the fall/winter season in the southern hemispheres is here.  grrrrr

Oh, and then there's this       https://www.facebook.com/312383761871/photos/a.313018011871/10157423886176872/?type=3&theater

From what I understood in regards to this discussion:

Offcourse warm weather does not magically kill of a virus. But the fact that people are suffering from corona in warm regions does not mean the virus can spread there as easily. Up until recently, the world was still up and running with many people travelling all around the globe. And it took a while for social distancing to set in everywhere. Warm weather or not, the virus can be transmitted from person to person. The fact that warmer areas do have outbreaks does not mean the weather will not impact it's overall spread. Early scientific studies have provided evidence that the tranmission of this virus is affected by the climate, that was about two weeks ago.

But at this point, I think our experts do not expect the weather to be significant enough to lower the spread enough.

And granted, this was a discussion I was following like more than a week ago, since then a lot has happened.

[Harmony]

The thing is, it isn't just about a date on a calendar.  It's about accurate numbers and where each state is individually along the curve.  You look at numbers of new infections, numbers of hospital and ICU admissions and discharges.  You need a plan in place to monitor people once restrictions are lifted and a plan for what to do in case of a new outbreak circle within a county/community.  You need accurate antibody testing firmly in place.

The orders to stay at home need to be fluid and people need to understand this.  Otherwise, this period of time is just a precursor of what's more to come.

[CrimsonSunrise]

My wife started a week and a half ago making masks for my Sister and Brother in law, both are pediatricians.  Since then she's been making them for our other family members and my Dad's caretaker.  Now, she's having a tough time finding the elastic to make them.

[Volante99]

I agree that the biggest factor of all will be a collective, F-this attitude. I
give it until mid May. By then, regardless of the scenario, people start
going out. About the time everybody needs a haircut badly.

Agreed. I’ve already seen increased traffic and people out and about this weekend. We’ve been under lockdown for 3 weeks and we’ve only seen a handful of cases and one death of an elderly person in an area of about 100,000 people. People are getting restless and they’ll want to start gathering. My office is already trying ways to legally circumvent the state shutdown mandate and get people back to work in the next week or so. Unless it hits the area harder soon (which I pray it doesn’t) people will lose that sense of seriousness/emergency. Unfortunately, for most people in the Midwest, NYC might as well be Timbuktu.