Coronavirus

[jammindude]

A 3x jump in percentages in a single week and no one's needle moves even a bit?   

That's baffling to me.

[Dublagent66]

What sort of needle did you have in mind?  Social distancing guidelines extended 30 more days.  Domestic non-essentially travel ban for 14 days.  Some states will require a 14 day self quarantine after entering the state.  Just a few examples.  There's needles moving all over the place.

[bosk1]

Still not sure what is surprising about that.  If anything, I am surprised that it is that low.  If people are testing, they presumably think they have it because they are showing symptoms.  I would expect the percentage to be a lot higher.

[The Walrus]

Had more people than ever in the office today. Saw goo gobs of people outside., including large groups of kids at the basketball courts. Everyone thinks this is over, apparently. Welp

[Orbert]

Orbert Update:

Our guitarist David is still in the hospital in critical but stable condition, with confirmed COVID-19.  We had a band practice on the 12th, before the official lockdown but after we should have known better.  That was 18 days ago as of this writing, and I have not shown any symptoms.  I'm reasonably sure that I don't have it, or if I do, it is more recent.  I would have shown symptoms by now if I contracted it 18 days ago.

My wife and I have been working from home for a while.  Me since last year, her since January.  We haven't left the house in weeks.  Our son, who is an idiot, also lives with us.  For the first few weeks, he'd still go out sometimes and come right back.  Usually just to pick up something to eat because the food here at home isn't good enough.  He stopped doing that last week some time when he ran out of money, because he has two jobs but is currently furloughed from both because most things are shut down.  He sometimes finds something in the fridge to eat, but has discovered ordering food delivery via credit cards.  Typical young person with no concept of forward thinking.  Yes, I have tried explaining things like reality to him, and no, I have been unsuccessful in convincing him of anything.

I do have this cough, which bothered me and honestly did kinda scare me for a while, but it's not a "dry cough" (which is what all accounts say to watch out for) but whatever the opposite of a dry cough is.  I do hack stuff up.  But that's because I'm home all the time and still have weed, although that won't hold out forever, either.  Switched to primarily edibles last week, and the cough has eased up considerably.  Also, it occurred to me that if I do contract a respiratory infection, having lungs ravaged by smoking may not make a huge difference, but I'm sure it wouldn't help.  I have one gummy left.  I'm saving it.  For what?  I'm not sure.

So... I'm pretty sure I do not have it.  I read just today that there are 29 confirmed cases in my town.  That means (1) we apparently have plenty of tests which I suppose is good, and (2) we probably have a lot more than 29 cases because these are still only the confirmed ones.  Not everyone's showing symptoms yet, and not everyone's being tested yet.

Last week I mentioned that I was actually going to leave the house, just for a walk, but it was snowing outside.  I stayed in.  Yesterday I thought I might take a walk.  It was raining.  Fuck.

Fun times.

[cramx3]

Sometimes I wonder if you/I did get it but your body was able to just combat it and therefor you didn't really get sick besides a bit of a cough.  Like I've been thinking this so much.  After going to three concerts in three different states (Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Center Jersey) in the beginning of March and felt a bit sickly after, but I feel fine and it's been 20 days since my last concert and last really close exposure to lots of people. 

[Anguyen92]

Sometimes I wonder if you/I did get it but your body was able to just combat it and therefor you didn't really get sick besides a bit of a cough.  Like I've been thinking this so much. After going to three concerts in three different states (Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Center Jersey) in the beginning of March and felt a bit sickly after, but I feel fine and it's been 20 days since my last concert and last really close exposure to lots of people.

I question that as well.  I was in Washington in the last week of February and went to a show in Seattle and a show in Spokane the next day.  I was in Seattle trying to get home on the day, I think, the first passing happened in Seattle due to the virus.  I mean I had a sore throat and some congestion the next week, but nothing out of the ordinary.  The same thing happened to me after my trip to the East Coast last year, but I wasn't as sick this time around than I did last year.

[Harmony]

Doctor's working in the ICUs are being reminded to slow down and ask their patients prior to intubation if they have anything they'd like to say to their families.  Today is National Doctor's Day.  Here's to the doctors who take the time.

[Cool Chris]

Thank you for posting that. Medical professionals are cut from a different cloth than schlubs like me. My mom is a nurse in an ob/gyn clinic. I am worried about her but she reminds me that her clinic is small, and since they have a specific clientele she doesn't interact with as many people as those who work in a hospital. Unfortunately her clients aren't going to stop being pregnant just because they world around them stopped. 

[mike099]

Here in Tennessee the drive thrus and take out are still open. I feel the governor should shut this down for a month. How is your area handling drive thru and take out food?

[KevShmev]

Most are saying April is gonna be the worst and that is in two days...feels like impending doom is coming.

Since I am working from home now, I never leave the house except for the very occasional trip to get takeout food or a few things at the grocery story and a once-a-day drive just to keep a little sanity.  I feel like there's nothing else I can do at this point.

[lonestar]

Most are saying April is gonna be the worst and that is in two days...feels like impending doom is coming.

Since I am working from home now, I never leave the house except for the very occasional trip to get takeout food or a few things at the grocery story and a once-a-day drive just to keep a little sanity.  I feel like there's nothing else I can do at this point.

Except for the work at home thing (laid off), that's gonna be my plan as well. Finished moving today, so I can hunker down except for an essentials trip here and there, and a good hike every couple of days. There's a ton of shit to do around this place, so I'll be pleasantly busy. I really, really don't want this thing, between being 50, a former heavy smoker, a diabetic, and recently on biologic immune meds, I think it'd hit me fairly hard. Checking my temp a few times a day, can't really rely on the cough thing since because of the move, I've been in a cloud of dust for a week and my allergies are on overdrive.

[Cool Chris]

How is your area handling drive thru and take out food?

It seems almost universal restaurants are allowed to stay open and offer drive-thru/take-out/delivery. It keeps them from completely shutting down, and with small precautions appears reasonably safe.

I feel like there's nothing else I can do at this point.

That's all most of us can do, my friend.

Found out a co-worker from a past job is on a ventilator. He is mid-30s, fit and healthy, though rumor has it he is HIV+. Righteous dude. We were friends, but not enough to keep in touch after I left that place. As of now, he's the only person I am aware of who has the virus, and it's not looking good for him.

[SystematicThought]

Sometimes I wonder if you/I did get it but your body was able to just combat it and therefor you didn't really get sick besides a bit of a cough.  Like I've been thinking this so much.  After going to three concerts in three different states (Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Center Jersey) in the beginning of March and felt a bit sickly after, but I feel fine and it's been 20 days since my last concert and last really close exposure to lots of people. 

I'm thinking back to February when I flew back from New Orleans and had a sore throat a few days later. Went away, and then a week and a half later came back with a cough and congestion and slight fever. Went away a week later and hasn't come back. I always kinda wonder if I did have it. My mom got sick shortly after I got sick and she had chills/fever and sore throat.

I feel really irresponsible posting that, but the coronavirus wasn't talked about at the level it is now back in February. Louisiana is a hot bed for the virus right now. Maybe I had it back in February, I ended up doing the virtual doctor with my doctor and I was diagnosed with an acute upper respiratory infection (fancy name for cold). There only thing against it was that I had a productive cough, not dry (although sometimes it was just a dry cough).

I thought it was quite a bit less than it has been in my neighborhood. I went for a walk for about 30 minutes and only recall seeing one vehicle the whole time and only a couple dog walkers. Hopefully people will take it seriously.

The morning drive in to work this morning around 6:30 felt emptier but there was still quite a bit of traffic for "essential only". But like others have said, Minnesota's stay at home order is pretty damn loose. It's easier to say what isn't essential than what is essential. Still lot's of Sunday drivers in the left lane on my drive home

I did Jimmy John's take out today for dinner which is in the same strip mall as a Chipotle. Man, Chipotle take out is a mess. I pulled into the lot and there are about 15 people just standing in the parking lot, in the middle of the driving lanes, 6 feet apart. A worker opens the door with 6 bags jammed into his hand and starts yelling names and even more confusion occurs as people didn't hear what names he said. It was so weird. Meanwhile, you can just walk into the Jimmy Johns and order your sandwich. I called first to make sure I could come in.

To answer mike099, drive-thrus to me are iffy. I really have no desire to do fast food (except for Jimmy John's) or even really any takeout. Mainly because how are they ordering their food? Is it still as fresh as when life is normal? How do they order when it's not as busy as it used to be and they don't know the demand for each day. We ordered from a Mexican restaurant the other night and I ordered what I always did, never have a problem. The next morning, I had such bad diarrhea (sorry, too much information), and so did my sister in law. It was so weird. We ordered from 2 different restaurants that night and the food wasn't really that good from the other one either compared to what it usually is. Maybe once they find their rhythm, it will be better. For now, I want to support the restaurants, but I'm uneasy about ordering from them right now.

Also, random side thought.

I read a story of a nurse that was talking about the emotional toll of what is happening and how since no one is allowed visitors when they are in the hospital with coronavirus, these people die alone. Usually, the nurse is in the room when they pass on, but there is no family present. She mentioned sometimes FaceTime is used, but still--there isn't a physical presence.

It just really hit me and made me sad. I cried a little at the thought of dying alone from this horrible disease. I thought of myself in the present and being on my deathbed at age 26 with coronavirus. My mom, dad, and brother can't be in the room with me, let alone the hospital. I just can't fathom the thought of being alone as I pass on--I don't want to die alone. I would want my family to be there as a source of comfort as I pass on and I would find it heartbreaking for them, especially as a parent, to know that my son is dying and about to cross over and there is nothing I can do to comfort them and calm their fear they must be experiencing. I don't know if you are comatose when you die from coronavirus, but I just can't imagine. It reminded me of three weeks ago when our Old Dutch driver's uncle passed away. He woke up in the middle of the night, they presume with really bad heartburn or something. He went to the bathroom because he obviously knew something was wrong, he died just as he went into the bathroom from cardiac arrest. Our driver said that he can't imagine the fear he experienced in his final minutes, knowing something was wrong.

I just can't imagine the fear before being intubated or the fear before dying from this. It's just awful what's going on.

[Volante99]

Still not sure what is surprising about that.  If anything, I am surprised that it is that low.  If people are testing, they presumably think they have it because they are showing symptoms.  I would expect the percentage to be a lot higher.

This is what currently has me baffled. If the virus is so widespread and the infection rate is conservatively 5-10x higher than what’s being reported, why are we only getting a 5-10% positive rate on tests. In my state we’re only testing those with severe symptoms. I can’t reconcile this besides the fact that positive testing on those with symptoms will always be a lagging indicator. It is a bit concerning though, that this could mean we haven’t even seen the tip of the iceberg (NYC not withstanding).

[lordxizor]

Still not sure what is surprising about that.  If anything, I am surprised that it is that low.  If people are testing, they presumably think they have it because they are showing symptoms.  I would expect the percentage to be a lot higher.

This is what currently has me baffled. If the virus is so widespread and the infection rate is conservatively 5-10x higher than what’s being reported, why are we only getting a 5-10% positive rate on tests. In my state we’re only testing those with severe symptoms. I can’t reconcile this besides the fact that positive testing on those with symptoms will always be a lagging indicator. It is a bit concerning though, that this could mean we haven’t even seen the tip of the iceberg (NYC not withstanding).

I'm curious how accurate the testing is. Maybe some false negatives? You also have to remember that lots of other viruses and bacterial infections cause similar symptoms. Colds and the flu are still going around and can have very similar symptoms depending on how they manifest themselves.

[jingle.boy]

For anyone who thinks that they are insulated by living in a small community (not a shot at you at all MJ... just that I think there are still people who think it can't/won't happen to their town).  Nine dead in a nursing home in Bobcaygeon, ON - cottage country.  3500 total residents up there.  They don't know how the virus got in - thru a visitor, employee, or new resident.

[The Walrus]

For anyone who thinks that they are insulated by living in a small community (not a shot at you at all MJ... just that I think there are still people who think it can't/won't happen to their town).  Nine dead in a nursing home in Bobcaygeon, ON - cottage country.  3500 total residents up there.  They don't know how the virus got in - thru a visitor, employee, or new resident.

I like how I go out of my way to note that I DON'T think I'm insulated by living in a small community, over and over, just made a post about dumbasses out in groups last night, and I still get mentioned in that context. You know, I go to work and come home and play video games and my piano, that's been the MO for the last couple weeks. I was on this social isolation nonsense before ya'll hopped on the bandwagon. 

[jingle.boy]

Dude... I mentioned you by name because I wanted to be clear that I WASN'T putting you in that context. You're the only DTF'r (frequenting this thread) that I know of off the top of my that head lives in a tiny little town.

[The Walrus]

You'll forgive me, because I've been lectured many a time for expressing my desire just to get on a damn treadmill despite acknowledging that I'm doing risk assessment all day long. I just find it amusing, I'm not getting heated, I wouldn't have said anything if I wasn't name dropped 

FYI, I don't live in a city but my town isn't *that* tiny. 13k people, but we also have a direct line to Chicago, and sit on I-57 about 15 minutes north of the University of Illinois. We're like that shadowy part of the world Mufasa and Simba (the rich university prick kids) look out to from Pride Rock and are considered a wretched hive of scum and villainy

[SwedishGoose]

I'm quite surprised that we have so few deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden.
We had our first death on the 11th of March and have slowly gone up to the current toll of 110
The most deaths were a few days ago, 18 people died in a day but it did not rise as expected. Today we had 8 new deaths.

Hopefully it can stay like this but probably it will start to rise when people travel around the country for the easter break (against the advice from the authorities).

Myself.... I stay put at home, working from home and avoiding as much contact with others as I can.

Indeed. Given how comparatively lax the measures here are I'm surprised the growth rate is as low as it is.

Well, I guess the shit starts to hit the swedish fan now.... 36 death in the last day

Another 34 this past day.... still not that big of a shitstorm here in Sweden

[Zydar]

Yeah, 180 in total now.

[TAC]

Dude... I mentioned you by name because I wanted to be clear that I WASN'T putting you in that context. You're the only DTF'r (frequenting this thread) that I know of off the top of my that head lives in a tiny little town.

7k in my town.

Population...not number of infected.

[emtee]

Our facility has moved to level 1. Many patients and employees are positive.
Some have died. I just witnessed a code blue on a Covid patient. Not sure if
they were saved. Tensions and fear are high, morale is low. Nurses have quit
in large numbers. I gave my wife an out to isolate from me until this is over
but she said she is staying with me. Crazy, surreal times.

[Stadler]

Thank you for posting that. Medical professionals are cut from a different cloth than schlubs like me. My mom is a nurse in an ob/gyn clinic. I am worried about her but she reminds me that her clinic is small, and since they have a specific clientele she doesn't interact with as many people as those who work in a hospital. Unfortunately her clients aren't going to stop being pregnant just because they world around them stopped.

My cousin is an ER nurse in Fairfield County (by far the hardest hit part of Connecticut) and she's a bad ass.  She walks to a different drummer (and always has) but this is something else.  I know she's been exposed at least once so far, but so far, no impacts.   

I'm closer to her mom (my cousin) and grandparents (my aunt and uncle, both RIP) but I admire her pluck. 

[TAC]

Our facility has moved to level 1. Many patients and employees are positive.
Some have died. I just witnessed a code blue on a Covid patient. Not sure if
they were saved. Tensions and fear are high, morale is low. Nurses have quit
in large numbers. I gave my wife an out to isolate from me until this is over
but she said she is staying with me. Crazy, surreal times.

Speaking of your wife, has your at home routine changed much? I'm not in health care, but when I get home, I'm met with a cloud of disinfectant spray. I take all my clothes off as soon as I get in the house and jump in a hot shower. Then my work clothes and towel get washed in hot water.

[ProfessorPeart]

Dude... I mentioned you by name because I wanted to be clear that I WASN'T putting you in that context. You're the only DTF'r (frequenting this thread) that I know of off the top of my that head lives in a tiny little town.

7k in my town.

Population...not number of infected.

1,500 in my town. 10 miles to the closest North town. 5-6 miles to the closest East and West towns. Fairly isolated here. I work from home so this hasn't really changed my life much at all.

[black_biff_stadler]

For anyone who thinks that they are insulated by living in a small community (not a shot at you at all MJ... just that I think there are still people who think it can't/won't happen to their town).  Nine dead in a nursing home in Bobcaygeon, ON - cottage country.  3500 total residents up there.  They don't know how the virus got in - thru a visitor, employee, or new resident.

Damn. That death toll extrapolates to 840K with the US' population of 327M.

[Shadow Ninja 2.0]

You'd have to think that the fatality rate in a nursing home is going to be way higher than the overall fatality rate, though.

[Stadler]

Our facility has moved to level 1. Many patients and employees are positive.
Some have died. I just witnessed a code blue on a Covid patient. Not sure if
they were saved. Tensions and fear are high, morale is low. Nurses have quit
in large numbers. I gave my wife an out to isolate from me until this is over
but she said she is staying with me. Crazy, surreal times.

Speaking of your wife, has your at home routine changed much? I'm not in health care, but when I get home, I'm met with a cloud of disinfectant spray. I take all my clothes off as soon as I get in the house and jump in a hot shower. Then my work clothes and towel get washed in hot water.

I'm not going to lie; this is a stress-inducing situation.   It's not all fun and board games at the Stadler household.  Nothing to panic about, nothing that will be permanent, but it's a compact, sealed vessel with a turbulent brew of emotions, and that's not easy for all people. 

[lordxizor]

Death rate estimated to be 0.66%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/coronavirus-death-rate-is-lower-than-previously-reported-study-says-but-its-still-deadlier-than-seasonal-flu/ar-BB11VZFh?li=BBnb4R7

Unadjusted death rate is 1.38%. So it seems they're estimating that about half of the cases are going undetected. I would have guessed much higher than that goes undetected. But I'll trust these people are far smarter and more knowledgeable than me.

[Stadler]

Compared to this under-reporting:  https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-residents-say-chinese-government-coronavirus-death-toll-is-low-2020-3

Some of this is sort of "Trumpian" (referring to social media sources, and a "resident surnamed Zhang"), but:  https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

They both suggest a possible under-reporting by a factor of 15 or more for the deaths in Wuhan.  Right now, the TOTAL deaths across the globe are estimated to be 39,563.   That means that it's plausible that the Chinese government has potentially under-reported deaths equal to the TOTAL number of global deaths so far.

[Harmony]

Passing this along from an infectious disease epidemiologist.  It's very good information.  Do not get complacent.  Bold emphasis is mine.

Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures.

Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the "literature" of social media.

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic's trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks.

Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn't have to.

This may lead some people to think that the social distancing
measures are not working.

They are.

They may feel futile.

They aren't.

You will feel discouraged.

You should.

This is normal in chaos. But, this is also normal epidemic trajectory.

Stay calm.

This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception.

We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact.

Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying.

You may feel like giving in.

Don't.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics.

While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics.

Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn't much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in
the unit is at risk.

Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed.

If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's mother shook hands with.

This sounds silly, it's not.

This is not a joke or a hypothetical.

We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens.

Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison.

These measures also take a long time to see the results.

It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how 'one quick little get together' can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does.

I promise you it does.

I promise. I promise. I promise.

You can't cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a "little"- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc.

From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months.

This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices.

My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched' by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks.

It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn't working and become paralyzed by fear, or to 'cheat' a little bit in the coming weeks.

By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

[cramx3]

yea, especially since a lot of spread has been shown to be within people living together.  If one person gets it and bring it into the home, the rest of the home is VERY likely to get it so that's really spot on IMO.

Also Dr Fauci was on CNN this morning and said something similar about how we can't easily see the damage reduction done by social distancing but it HAS been working even though things are about to get a lot worse, that doesn't mean that our efforts have been in vain.  It's helping.

[Northern Lion]

Compared to this under-reporting:  https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-residents-say-chinese-government-coronavirus-death-toll-is-low-2020-3

Some of this is sort of "Trumpian" (referring to social media sources, and a "resident surnamed Zhang"), but:  https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

They both suggest a possible under-reporting by a factor of 15 or more for the deaths in Wuhan.  Right now, the TOTAL deaths across the globe are estimated to be 39,563.   That means that it's plausible that the Chinese government has potentially under-reported deaths equal to the TOTAL number of global deaths so far.

Yep, that sounds about right.  And I wouldn't be surprised if it is actually a lot higher than that.  My guess, is that China has had millions of cases so far.

And Stadler, I'm sorry to hear about your situation at home, I hope that things are able to mellow out soon for you and your fam.