Coronavirus

[jingle.boy]

On the recovery matter, a Japanese case today was just revealed to be a re-infection after "recovering".

[Northern Lion]

On the recovery matter, a Japanese case today was just revealed to be a re-infection after "recovering".

Yeah, I saw that as well.  It makes me wonder how many infections does it take before the average immune system catches up?

It would also be interesting to know how many of the current infections in China are repeat infections.

[MirrorMask]

Found an excellent article that explains the whole situation with math.

Feel free to run it through Google translate:

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_febbraio_25/matematicadel-contagioche-ci-aiutaa-ragionarein-mezzo-caos-3ddfefc6-5810-11ea-a2d7-f1bec9902bd3.shtml

I'll try to make a very short summary.

Let's apply the "SIR" method, let's divide people into S / I / R categories.

S = Susceptible, people that could be infected.
I = Infected, those who were already hit by the virus.
R = Recovered, people who healed and no longer transmit the virus.

There's also another factor to consider: R0. Which value it is? it's average of people infected by someone who carries the virus. This value for the coronavirus is currently 2,5. Seems low, measles was / is around 15, but wait to be happy.

R0 needs to be below 1 for the infection to die out. If an infected person does not infect another one, the spreading of the disease (yeah, I thought about the song) stops. When R0 is above 1, we have an epidemic.

And now we come to the crucial issue - how long the disease takes to spread. The average time that elapses between when a person is infected, and when this person infects another. The coronavirus' time is measured at about 7 days.

This is why the governments adopted the measures they adopted. This is why Lombardy, the region in Italy where it all began, forced to close schools and ban social gatherings (such as concerts, Testament got canceled, luckily I wasn't planning to but sucks for those who wanted to) for a week.

This is also where all the inevitable comments, due to human nature, begin - it's too much, it's an exageration, what are they hiding etc... it's math. Governments take the decisions they take based on this model. That's why China sealed shut millions of people in their own homes. The value of R0 HAS to be brought below 1. No government in his sane mind would shoot their own economy in the foot AND the balls if it wasn't worth it.

The article mentions also what was discussed here some posts ago - if the number of infected people grows too much, the sanitary system collapses. You can't have hospitals full and people working there falling ill as well. If hospitals are ships, you can't have more people on a ship than the number of cabins, and take the sailors and put them in the cabins as well leaving no one at the helm.

And finally, a quick question: how many Susceptible people there are currently in the world? easy answer. 7 billions. Everyone on the planet. Because there is no vaccine yet. And this is why anti-vaxxers need to be gathered, and taken to an isle in the middle of the ocean and left there to fend for themselves against ferocious beasts.

[Chino]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/wh-moves-to-screen-scientists-statements-on-coronavirus

As fears grow of a politicized White House response to the coronavirus outbreak, the White House has placed Vice President in charge of messaging about the virus, the New York Times reported Thursday.


Pence, who Trump said Wednesday night would be the White House point person on the outbreak, will clear public health officials’ statements on the virus, the Times reported citing several unnamed people familiar with the matter.

The White House also announced Thursday that top economic adviser Larry Kudlow, along with the surgeon general and the Treasury secretary, would join the White House Coronavirus Task Force.



Oh joy.

[SwedishGoose]

So Sweden now has 7 cases, all have been infected when travelling (China, Italy, Iran, Germany) or by someone who has travelled.
I expect this number to increase a lot now.
Schools all over the country have or have had a one week break and a lot of people have been travelling.

I'm not at all confident in the swedish authorities handling of the situation or on the possibility for hospitalizing an outbreak of coronacases.

Maybe it would be better to get this sooner rather than later.....

[Polarbear]

So Sweden now has 7 cases, all have been infected when travelling (China, Italy, Iran, Germany) or by someone who has travelled.
I expect this number to increase a lot now.
Schools all over the country have or have had a one week break and a lot of people have been travelling.

I'm not at all confident in the swedish authorities handling of the situation or on the possibility for hospitalizing an outbreak of coronacases.

Maybe it would be better to get this sooner rather than later.....

Here on the other side of the gulf in Finland, I think we have one confirmed case and several unconfirmed.

This is scary, but at this point I think the worldwide panic is more destructive than the virus itself. I'm not saying people shouldn't be careful, but you are just as likely to get run over by a drunk driver tomorrow, as you are to die to a Coronavirus.

[Chino]

Chris Hayes last night:


‘So here's what appears to be chain of events:

The Trump administration repatriated infected Americans over the objections of the CDC.

HHS then sent federal workers to interact with the infected population without adequate training or protection

Then those workers went out into the public with no monitoring or testing regime in place.

And now the first US-contracted case has appeared right near one of the airforce bases where this all happened.

When someone at HHS raised alarms about all this s/he was criticized for hurting morale and then ordered to another position or be fired.

[Nekov]

You mean to say the US is doing the same thing China was criticized for?

[ChuckSteak]

https://coronavirus.turnedmetal.com/?utm_source=FB+&utm_campaign=Coronavirus2020&utm_content=US_only&fbclid=IwAR1BmhRfGIqpRA6RB2mZuy0FwMJDciu4pudxO0RwLCLTxr36JapCB-z3BzY

[Chino]

https://coronavirus.turnedmetal.com/?utm_source=FB+&utm_campaign=Coronavirus2020&utm_content=US_only&fbclid=IwAR1BmhRfGIqpRA6RB2mZuy0FwMJDciu4pudxO0RwLCLTxr36JapCB-z3BzY

I don't know why. But I feel compelled to buy that.

[ErHaO]

Well, we got an official statement today at work, a colleague is confirmed to have the virus (in the Netherlands). Not someone I know or have interacted with though. One of the first cases here. My mom actually called me if it was safe to come to my place.

[Chino]

We got one at my work as well, but for a different reason. My department handles creating our view of risk for catastrophic events (hurricanes, terrorism, wildfires, earthquakes, explosions following earthquakes, etc). One of the things we focus on is workers comp and loss of work claims. So for example, we have models and terabytes of data projecting what we'd have to pay out in workers comp claims if an Earthquake were to hit any particular block of San Francisco (or anywhere for that matter). We got an email from one of our vendors this morning, and they've started modelling the spread of Coronavirus in the US. If one of our policy holders owns a business in a popular city somewhere, and the virus somehow interferes with their business, they can make a claim. I guess the big insurance players are starting to look into how this could impact their bottom line in the upcoming quarters.   

[Harmony]

I'm not an alarmist about these things and I still think Americans have more risk to get the flu at this point.  But I find myself questioning a lot of things right now.  One of my kids is graduating in May.  Will there be a graduation ceremony?  Who knows?  I'm trying to plan a lovely 2 week vacation in Hawaii in September.  Will I want to get on a plane in September?  Who knows?

Right now everyone is having these thoughts/discussions.  The travel industry - not to mention the economy - is going to be decimated at the very least if we don't get a handle on this soon.  After reading the whistleblower account of how federal employees were not properly trained to contact with potentially infected people, I'm not feeling very reassured.

Wouldn't it be an irony if a virus takes down Trump by default because the economy takes a nose dive?  *Not saying I want that to happen at the expense of human lives*  Or could the virus impact the ability to even hold an election?

So many questions....

[Adami]

I'm not an alarmist about these things and I still think Americans have more risk to get the flu at this point.  But I find myself questioning a lot of things right now.  One of my kids is graduating in May.  Will there be a graduation ceremony?  Who knows?  I'm trying to plan a lovely 2 week vacation in Hawaii in September.  Will I want to get on a plane in September?  Who knows?

Right now everyone is having these thoughts/discussions.  The travel industry - not to mention the economy - is going to be decimated at the very least if we don't get a handle on this soon.  After reading the whistleblower account of how federal employees were not properly trained to contact with potentially infected people, I'm not feeling very reassured.

Wouldn't it be an irony if a virus takes down Trump by default because the economy takes a nose dive?  *Not saying I want that to happen at the expense of human lives*  Or could the virus impact the ability to even hold an election?

So many questions....

CALM DOWN WOMAN!

Pence is on this, okay?

[cramx3]

Yea, our response here is pathetic.  I'm not sure there's much that can be done regardless, this will spread like wild fire even with our best methods of containment.  We just don't know enough about it to stop it, it seems.  We could and should be doing better, but I'm starting to get more worried about the panic than the actual virus.

[MoraWintersoul]

My mom is 65 and on chemo so I'm pretty scared. Not even sure if I should travel home to see her, since Norway has four confirmed cases right now, one in my city, and I have to pass through three airports (two of them teeming with people who went to Italy, Iran and China on winter break) to get to her.

[The Walrus]

So I don't really know how to feel about this. On one hand I get the concern if you're in a populated area, or if you're in frail health or are on the extremes of the age spectrum. Me personally: 29 year old perfectly healthy male who exercises regularly, lives in a rural area, has a fantastic immune system. I remember when the bird flu and swine flu were a thing, all sorts of other big things, absolutely zero concern with those. I had the common flu twice last year, worse than I've ever had in my life, but I haven't been sick at all this year. Is it wrong that I have zero concerns about this thing from my perspective?

[cramx3]

I don't think so, I'm similar although in a more populated area.  I kind of expect to get it and just shake it off at some point.  I'm a healthy 35 year old who hardly gets sick besides a common cold here and there.  I've never been a germ freak and let my immune system build up.  But, people like Mora who has a relative in not good health should be a bit worried if the virus hits locally.

[MirrorMask]

So I don't really know how to feel about this. On one hand I get the concern if you're in a populated area, or if you're in frail health or are on the extremes of the age spectrum. Me personally: 29 year old perfectly healthy male who exercises regularly, lives in a rural area, has a fantastic immune system. I remember when the bird flu and swine flu were a thing, all sorts of other big things, absolutely zero concern with those. I had the common flu twice last year, worse than I've ever had in my life, but I haven't been sick at all this year. Is it wrong that I have zero concerns about this thing from my perspective?

Well, maybe you'd get it and you would not even realize it. Mayve it would look to you like a normal cold, and you stay home from work just a single day. Or maybe it its you bad enough that you need to be hospitalized, and you become another addition on the unbearable number of people that doctors have to treat.

Yeah, I don't see how the coronavirus would kill you, but be safe. And by "be safe" I mean "wash often your hands, don't touch your eyes, mouth and nose with the hands, and don't cough with an open mouth", which if is something we all do, already helps a lot.

[Dublagent66]

Yea, our response here is pathetic.  I'm not sure there's much that can be done regardless, this will spread like wild fire even with our best methods of containment.  We just don't know enough about it to stop it, it seems.  We could and should be doing better, but I'm starting to get more worried about the panic than the actual virus.

Yeah, the virus isn't a threat but the panic is tanking everything.  A friend of mine at work said to stop worrying about the stock market.  I said, if everyone would stop worrying about the fucking virus, the stock market wouldn't even be an issue.  I'm not worried about the fucking virus, but my brokerage and 401K accounts are going down the fucking toilet.

[Chino]

Yea, our response here is pathetic.  I'm not sure there's much that can be done regardless, this will spread like wild fire even with our best methods of containment.  We just don't know enough about it to stop it, it seems.  We could and should be doing better, but I'm starting to get more worried about the panic than the actual virus.

Yeah, the virus isn't a threat but the panic is tanking everything.  A friend of mine at work said to stop worrying about the stock market.  I said, if everyone would stop worrying about the fucking virus, the stock market wouldn't even be an issue.  I'm not worried about the fucking virus, but my brokerage and 401K accounts are going down the fucking toilet.

To be fair, public panic isn't driving down the market. Institutions being afraid of supply chain interruptions in China affecting the next quarter or two, combined with rogue AI trading, is what's driving down the market. 

[cramx3]

There's a lot to take into account with the stock market and panic is one of many reasons it's tanking.  I shouldn't of checked my 401k  but as I've said before, I'm not really worried for the long run with that, I'm far from retirement. 

I'm more worried about my plans.  I've got lots of concert tickets, a couple flights booked, things I want to do that maybe come time will be in jeopardy. 

[lordxizor]

I was a little worried about my kids, but what I've read is that kids are tending to get more minor symptoms than adults. I'm also more worried about the panic than the actual virus. I'm debating stocking up on some medical supplies and food just so we can hunker down for a while if needed.

[jingle.boy]

What Chino said (vis-a-vis the stock market).  When firms like Apple are already giving forecast warnings because of supply chain disruptions, this is naturally going to have a legitimate (ie, not simply panic induced) economic impact.

My company CEO just put out a notice last night:
- all travel into outbreak areas (China, Japan, northeast Italy (including between our Rome and Milan offices) et...) is banned.
- all non-essential travel globally is cancelled until March 31st
- we'd already cancelled our customer conference in Asia that was supposed to be in a couple of weeks; we just made our European conference "virtual"
- All non-revenue generating open headcount is frozen.

So yeah... business are starting to make preparations for the economic impact, which will in turn create more economic impacts.

I'm not personally worried about my own health, but I am worried about how all of this is going to play out - regarding the health of the macro population, and the economic/financial impact.  US markets are down 12% already, and another 700 points today.

jingle.family is supposed to go on a Disney World trip the last week of April, and the first thought popped into my head as to whether we will actually go.  No plans to cancel yet, but depending on the trajectory of this, cancelling is not out of the question.

[lordxizor]

jingle.family is supposed to go on a Disney World trip the last week of April, and the first thought popped into my head as to whether we will actually go.  No plans to cancel yet, but depending on the trajectory of this, cancelling is not out of the question.

Might not be a bad time to go. It will probably be less busy than normal. But Disney has closed their parks in China and Japan, so I wouldn't put it past them to do the same in the US if things get bad.

[Northern Lion]

I was a little worried about my kids, but what I've read is that kids are tending to get more minor symptoms than adults. I'm also more worried about the panic than the actual virus. I'm debating stocking up on some medical supplies and food just so we can hunker down for a while if needed.

I've seen the same thing.  I was initially worried about my kids, but now I'm not.  There are a lot of elderly in my commuity so I'm more worried about them.  I have extra food saved up, but I need to work a little more on other needs like toilet paper, diapers etc.

[Dublagent66]

Yea, our response here is pathetic.  I'm not sure there's much that can be done regardless, this will spread like wild fire even with our best methods of containment.  We just don't know enough about it to stop it, it seems.  We could and should be doing better, but I'm starting to get more worried about the panic than the actual virus.

Yeah, the virus isn't a threat but the panic is tanking everything.  A friend of mine at work said to stop worrying about the stock market.  I said, if everyone would stop worrying about the fucking virus, the stock market wouldn't even be an issue.  I'm not worried about the fucking virus, but my brokerage and 401K accounts are going down the fucking toilet.

To be fair, public panic isn't driving down the market. Institutions being afraid of supply chain interruptions in China affecting the next quarter or two, combined with rogue AI trading, is what's driving down the market.

The panic is driving all that, plain and simple.

[gmillerdrake]

Way late to this thread but reading through it I don't have much more to really add. I'm not overly worried about 'my' health or my families....but.....with the rate this thing spreads and really no way to contain it.....the sheer amount of those that will most likely get infected makes it scary enough.

I don't think there's really anything mankind can do when the natural world decides to make a point

jingle.family is supposed to go on a Disney World trip the last week of April, and the first thought popped into my head as to whether we will actually go.  No plans to cancel yet, but depending on the trajectory of this, cancelling is not out of the question.

We have close friends who have spent the past couple weeks trying to convince my wife and I to join them for a cruise they're going on in July. I've been balking at it simply given I don't want to spend the money on it.....this Corona virus deal pretty much guarantees I won't be cruising anytime soon.

[Chino]

Yea, our response here is pathetic.  I'm not sure there's much that can be done regardless, this will spread like wild fire even with our best methods of containment.  We just don't know enough about it to stop it, it seems.  We could and should be doing better, but I'm starting to get more worried about the panic than the actual virus.

Yeah, the virus isn't a threat but the panic is tanking everything.  A friend of mine at work said to stop worrying about the stock market.  I said, if everyone would stop worrying about the fucking virus, the stock market wouldn't even be an issue.  I'm not worried about the fucking virus, but my brokerage and 401K accounts are going down the fucking toilet.

To be fair, public panic isn't driving down the market. Institutions being afraid of supply chain interruptions in China affecting the next quarter or two, combined with rogue AI trading, is what's driving down the market.

The panic is driving all that, plain and simple.

Explain.

[Northern Lion]

This may sound really morbid, but over the last few days I have suddenly gained the desire to read/watch The Stand.

Does that make me crazy?  Has that thought run through any of your heads as well?  And if so: book or film?

[Harmony]

I'm not an alarmist about these things and I still think Americans have more risk to get the flu at this point.  But I find myself questioning a lot of things right now.  One of my kids is graduating in May.  Will there be a graduation ceremony?  Who knows?  I'm trying to plan a lovely 2 week vacation in Hawaii in September.  Will I want to get on a plane in September?  Who knows?

Right now everyone is having these thoughts/discussions.  The travel industry - not to mention the economy - is going to be decimated at the very least if we don't get a handle on this soon.  After reading the whistleblower account of how federal employees were not properly trained to contact with potentially infected people, I'm not feeling very reassured.

Wouldn't it be an irony if a virus takes down Trump by default because the economy takes a nose dive?  *Not saying I want that to happen at the expense of human lives*  Or could the virus impact the ability to even hold an election?

So many questions....

CALM DOWN WOMAN!

Pence is on this, okay?

Oh right, I forgot.  Phew. 

Plus I've got my face mask - made in China - on at all times.  (Never mind they don't protect me at all unless it's an N95.) 

[Dublagent66]

Yea, our response here is pathetic.  I'm not sure there's much that can be done regardless, this will spread like wild fire even with our best methods of containment.  We just don't know enough about it to stop it, it seems.  We could and should be doing better, but I'm starting to get more worried about the panic than the actual virus.

Yeah, the virus isn't a threat but the panic is tanking everything.  A friend of mine at work said to stop worrying about the stock market.  I said, if everyone would stop worrying about the fucking virus, the stock market wouldn't even be an issue.  I'm not worried about the fucking virus, but my brokerage and 401K accounts are going down the fucking toilet.

To be fair, public panic isn't driving down the market. Institutions being afraid of supply chain interruptions in China affecting the next quarter or two, combined with rogue AI trading, is what's driving down the market.

The panic is driving all that, plain and simple.

Explain.

Um, let's see.  For one thing, I never said public panic but that's certainly part of it and it goes right on up the line and then flows back down again like shit.  General panic in just about every corner of the global economy.  Another word is fear.  You even said it yourself.  "Afraid of supply chain interruptions".  That's just another form of panic.  Who do you think the supply chain affects?  Pretty much everyone.  Stock market volatility is being caused by panic over this stupid virus.  Panic is spreading faster than the virus itself. 

[MrBoom_shack-a-lack]

Dr Drew has some good points but I guess the press won't listen anyway:

Dr. Drew Slams Coronavirus Coverage

[MoraWintersoul]

Super-spreader story from Norway: https://www.nrk.no/vestland/over-hundre-kan-ha-hatt-kontakt-med-koronasmittet-ulleval-ansatt-1.14922358

An employee at the hospital in Ullevål was on holiday in Italy, came back, worked for two days, got tested for the virus, turned back positive, and now they are contacting 100+ people this employee was possibly in close contact with during these two days. It's the eye department, so I'm hoping it's not someone treating people, just a receptionist or admin.

[Dave_Manchester]

I'm not an alarmist about these things and I still think Americans have more risk to get the flu at this point.  But I find myself questioning a lot of things right now.  One of my kids is graduating in May.  Will there be a graduation ceremony?  Who knows?  I'm trying to plan a lovely 2 week vacation in Hawaii in September.  Will I want to get on a plane in September?  Who knows?

Right now everyone is having these thoughts/discussions.  The travel industry - not to mention the economy - is going to be decimated at the very least if we don't get a handle on this soon.  After reading the whistleblower account of how federal employees were not properly trained to contact with potentially infected people, I'm not feeling very reassured.

Wouldn't it be an irony if a virus takes down Trump by default because the economy takes a nose dive?  *Not saying I want that to happen at the expense of human lives*  Or could the virus impact the ability to even hold an election?

So many questions....

CALM DOWN WOMAN!

Pence is on this, okay?

Oh right, I forgot.  Phew. 

"Obama just appointed an Ebola Czar with zero experience in the medical area and zero experience in infectious disease control. A TOTAL JOKE!"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/523237015329193984


As always with this guy, there's a tweet for every occasion.