As far as Portnoy songs, it’s a numbers game. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they prooobably won’t play any of the 12-Step suite. They did Shattered Fortress on the 2014 tour and I think they’ll let all that rest for awhile. They probably won’t do anything too personal to Portnoy like Honor Thy Father or Best of Times. Statistically, it’s just way less likely to happen. Not impossible, just less likely.
Well...sure, as a pure matter of numbers/statistics, during the time MP was in the band, JP wrote more than twice as many lyrics than MP (and he obviously has written zero lyrics since leaving the band), so when you also factor in the handful of lyrics written by JLB, JM, KM and CD, the likelhood of getting an MP lyric among the 5-8 non-DOT and non-SFAM songs that will be in the set are not high. However, I don't agree that we "can probably eliminate" the possibility altogether (anymore than we "can probably eliminate" getting a song with a JLB, KM or JM lyric).
I think we can, however, eliminate a few songs from consideration. I don't think DT will ever play TBOT, and I think we can also assume they won't play ACOS or any part of it on this tour, simply because of the length and the fact that it was played on the I&W&B tour. I also think Repentance is unlikely (for this tour or any other), but that might just be wishful thinking on my part. Other than that, I think just about anything is a possibility, and I've seen a bunch of posts here talking about The Glass Prison being a strong possibility (although that's nothing but fan speculation).
Beyond that, all I can say is that I'm glad I only have to restrain myself from looking at the set list for two days. The problem is that I'm going to the show with a guy who isn't a big DT fan and who has said he will be looking at the set list ahead of time.