Author Topic: The 2020 Election Thread  (Read 50799 times)

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Offline Stadler

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1960 on: June 30, 2020, 09:06:16 AM »
Well, clearly there is a difference, else, Hitler wouldn't have shot himself.  I hate psychoanalyzing someone like this, based on tweets and soundbites and staged appearances, but I see Trump being able to rationalize taking himself out of the race voluntarily over losing the election.   

Having said that, ain't going to happen.  The "Patriot Effect"* is in full bloom.




*  You know, when something amazing and unexpected happens - like coming from behind 28-3 in the Super Bowl and winning - it becomes the expectation.   Some polls were marginally wrong in 2016, and so now, every poll that has Trump losing is "wrong, like in 2016".   

Offline El Barto

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1961 on: June 30, 2020, 09:46:44 AM »
I suppose he could just tell everybody he had a mild heart attack from all of the stress involved in protecting America from liberals, and on the advice of his doctor he's begrudgingly withdrawing from the race. Of the 950,000 practicing physicians in the US right now, I suspect 949,000 of them would gladly phony up some medical reports to get rid of him. Of course "he couldn't cut it" would be a criticism, but most of the people whose adoration he wants won't think that far into it.

Again, not going to happen, but it's a viable option for him.
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Offline Adami

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1962 on: June 30, 2020, 09:50:00 AM »
I suppose he could just tell everybody he had a mild heart attack from all of the stress involved in protecting America from liberals, and on the advice of his doctor he's begrudgingly withdrawing from the race. Of the 950,000 practicing physicians in the US right now, I suspect 949,000 of them would gladly phony up some medical reports to get rid of him. Of course "he couldn't cut it" would be a criticism, but most of the people whose adoration he wants won't think that far into it.

Again, not going to happen, but it's a viable option for him.

And admit imperfect health? Don't see it happening. His vanity is pretty strong and a heart attack would put too much focus on potential health flaws. And this is a flawless man we're talking about here.

I think we're all thinking too logically here. If he wanted to bow out, he would more likely pull a "The president is a target of a vast liberal conspiracy with Russia and China and Pluto and is being forced to resign by the extreme liberal mob that have taken over the country"

It doesn't need to make any sense.
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Offline El Barto

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1963 on: June 30, 2020, 09:59:58 AM »
I suppose he could just tell everybody he had a mild heart attack from all of the stress involved in protecting America from liberals, and on the advice of his doctor he's begrudgingly withdrawing from the race. Of the 950,000 practicing physicians in the US right now, I suspect 949,000 of them would gladly phony up some medical reports to get rid of him. Of course "he couldn't cut it" would be a criticism, but most of the people whose adoration he wants won't think that far into it.

Again, not going to happen, but it's a viable option for him.

And admit imperfect health? Don't see it happening. His vanity is pretty strong and a heart attack would put too much focus on potential health flaws. And this is a flawless man we're talking about here.

I think we're all thinking too logically here. If he wanted to bow out, he would more likely pull a "The president is a target of a vast liberal conspiracy with Russia and China and Pluto and is being forced to resign by the extreme liberal mob that have taken over the country"

It doesn't need to make any sense.

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Offline MirrorMask

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1964 on: June 30, 2020, 11:51:17 AM »
Has it ever happened in US history that an officially nominated candidate, or a president running for re-election, did drop out of the race? (eventual deaths non withstanding)
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Offline eric42434224

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1965 on: June 30, 2020, 12:05:33 PM »
I think Trump has too many ass kissers around him that will only tell him what he wants to hear.  “Real Polls” show him doing better.  The “silent majority” is stronger than last time.  And on an on.
He also thinks so highly of himself that he like believes he can pull it off again like in 2016.  So unless the facts get so bad that even the ass kissers bail, he will ride it out In the echo chamber.
I find it more likely, as others have said, that if he loses, he will lay out the largest Deep state conspiracy to show how he was unfairly robbed in the election.  And he will tweet about it every day, 30 times a day, for the rest of his life.
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Offline Stadler

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1966 on: June 30, 2020, 02:18:26 PM »
Has it ever happened in US history that an officially nominated candidate, or a president running for re-election, did drop out of the race? (eventual deaths non withstanding)

No.   

Offline Cool Chris

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1967 on: June 30, 2020, 07:08:29 PM »
I think we're all thinking too logically here. If he wanted to bow out, he would more likely pull a "The president is a target of a vast liberal conspiracy with Russia and China and Pluto and is being forced to resign by the extreme liberal mob that have taken over the country"

He should hook up with some Jeff Gillooly type, coordinate an assault on him leaving him with verifiable critical, yet not life-threatening, injuries, and have some Antifa literature left at the scene to be discovered. Then he can have a doctor certify him as unable to fulfill the duties of the president, and he can blame it on the lunatic fringe left.
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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1968 on: June 30, 2020, 07:15:43 PM »


He should hook up with some Jeff Gillooly type, coordinate an assault on him leaving him with verifiable critical, yet not life-threatening, injuries, and have some Antifa literature left at the scene to be discovered. Then he can have a doctor certify him as unable to fulfill the duties of the president, and he can blame it on the lunatic fringe left.

would have thought the same thing but seeing the OP was TAC i immediately thought Maiden or DT related
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Offline axeman90210

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1969 on: June 30, 2020, 08:20:27 PM »
Watching people who don't understand math try to talk about polls is going to give me a conniption. People waving away all the recent polls because "look what happened in 2016", as if the polls weren't dead on for the national vote and well within the margin of error for the swing states that ended up going Trump's way. The last time a candidate had a lead this big in national polls in June was Clinton in 96, and I believe the only other candidates to crack 50% in national polling averages in June were Nixon in 72 and Reagan in 84. Now there is still a lot of time between now and November and there's more uncertainty thanks to covid, but there's no way to look at the current polling and not come to a conclusion that Trump is currently in a deep hole.
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Offline MirrorMask

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1970 on: July 01, 2020, 01:12:28 AM »
One of the very few things I remember about statistics in high school is that, once you have a large enough number of data - and it doesn't even need to be THAT large - the results can be predictable within a reasonable margin of error. This applies to everything, for example throwing a dice - throw enough dice and you will be able to have a reasonable prediction of how many times, until you will reach 100 or 1000 throws, you will get number 5.
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Offline Stadler

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1971 on: July 01, 2020, 07:37:53 AM »
Jeff Gillooly; that name rings a bell.  I think I saw him in a movie, right?   ;)

Offline gmillerdrake

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1972 on: July 01, 2020, 09:22:33 AM »
I think the only shot trump has at winning is tied to the debates. If Biden comes off looking like he looks in the selected bits and excerpts that are out there of him bumbling and stumbling and looking like he's 9 stages into dementia.......and trump is just trump.......I think trump could potentially gain some momentum from that.

But, if Biden shows up and is coherent and gives a respectable performance and 'stands' up to trump so to speak........that will be the final nail in the coffin for trump. trump is already done IMO.....he's lost the majority of the voters like me from the last election and shown no signs of doing anything to try and 'win' us back.....and at this point there's not much he could do for me personally to do so short of just sending me a personal check for $1 million dollars.
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Offline eric42434224

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1973 on: July 01, 2020, 10:51:19 AM »
I’d ask for a cashiers check or wire transfer if I were you.
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Offline Northern Lion

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1974 on: July 01, 2020, 11:08:01 AM »
I think the only shot trump has at winning is tied to the debates. If Biden comes off looking like he looks in the selected bits and excerpts that are out there of him bumbling and stumbling and looking like he's 9 stages into dementia.......and trump is just trump.......I think trump could potentially gain some momentum from that.

But, if Biden shows up and is coherent and gives a respectable performance and 'stands' up to trump so to speak........that will be the final nail in the coffin for trump. trump is already done IMO.....he's lost the majority of the voters like me from the last election and shown no signs of doing anything to try and 'win' us back.....and at this point there's not much he could do for me personally to do so short of just sending me a personal check for $1 million dollars.

I think you're right gmillerdrake.  I didn't vote for him in last election but because of all the deregulation he was doing, I became a supporter.  But lately, I'm not much of a supporter anymore.  I will probably vote 3rd party even though I'm not very enthusiastic about the Constitutional and Libertarian options either.  And I'm not aware of any independant candidates.
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Offline eric42434224

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1975 on: July 01, 2020, 11:29:21 AM »
I see a lot of Republicans from government, military, and former administrations coming out against a Trump.  I also think MANY more would voice the same if they weren’t afraid of blowback from Trump.
I see Biden very much against Trump obviously.  Now I admit I haven’t been following the election or candidates much, so forgive me if this is off base:

Is Biden waging the campaign war against Republicans and Trump, or just Trump?  Is it possible that there might be some cooperation across the isle when Trump is gone?  Trump himself appears to be a large roadblock to any cooperation at all.  If that roadblock isn’t there, does that allow the possibility? 

Now I know the history, as well as our tribalism, but is there some hope that there might be a sliver of cooperation in our future?  Is that possibility (If it exists) greater with Biden than Trump?  I think so yes.

Thoughts?
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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1976 on: July 01, 2020, 11:35:23 AM »
I was just reading about the 43 For Biden which included members of Bush's staff and cabinet.

It would be great if Trump was indeed rock bottom.
would have thought the same thing but seeing the OP was TAC i immediately thought Maiden or DT related
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Offline El Barto

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1977 on: July 01, 2020, 11:36:55 AM »
I was just reading about the 43 For Biden which included members of Bush's staff and cabinet.

It would be great if Trump was indeed rock bottom.
I want to see the 45 For Biden superpac.
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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1978 on: July 01, 2020, 12:04:57 PM »
I was just reading about the 43 For Biden which included members of Bush's staff and cabinet.

It would be great if Trump was indeed rock bottom.
I want to see the 45 For Biden superpac.

Took me a second but YES!
would have thought the same thing but seeing the OP was TAC i immediately thought Maiden or DT related
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Offline eric42434224

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1979 on: July 02, 2020, 07:37:54 AM »
So Biden and the D's have raised more funds that Trump and the R's for the second month in a row now.  One of Trumps advantages has been his War Chest and fund raising.  If this is a muting of that advantage, it could be a problem....especially as Trump/R's have been spending at a higher rate than Biden/D's.
Trump has spent almost 700 million already and is still 10 points behind, and sliding in the wrong direction.  What did all this money go to?  I read that a campaign managers company got 38 million.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 08:13:40 AM by eric42434224 »
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Offline MirrorMask

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1980 on: July 02, 2020, 08:53:10 AM »
Am I the only one disturbed by how much trucks of money are needed to run a campaign and win an election? or am I just naive in underestimating what it takes to spread a political message to 300 millions and counting of people?

From the outside, the US election system looks like a complex pyramid scheme. I'll be the first to admit that mine is an uneducated impression, but a non US citizen looking at the election sees an exagerate amount of money being poured and poured to keep a potential candidate in getting more and more delegates, and the more you're at the top, you kept getting more. I can't remember the last time that the guy (or woman, in Hillary's case) at the top of the race in early stages didn't eventually go on to get the nomination. It seems that once you're behind, you're behind no matter what, and being at the top gets you more and more delegates.
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Offline Northern Lion

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1981 on: July 02, 2020, 09:10:19 AM »
Yep, that's a good assessment.  And it's as horrible as it looks.  Under our current way of handling elections, only the ruch and powerful get a shot and it's disgusting.
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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1982 on: July 02, 2020, 04:36:20 PM »
Yeah, the whole thing is insane.

The pre primary candidates have to make fundraising quotas?

I feel like national TV should set aside X amount of time for political ads, and local affiliates should do the same for local pols.
would have thought the same thing but seeing the OP was TAC i immediately thought Maiden or DT related
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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1983 on: July 02, 2020, 04:54:49 PM »
Capping a limit on how much they can spend will also stop lobbyists.   Big business screws the majority of the constituents.  Us, the voters.
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Offline Northern Lion

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1984 on: July 02, 2020, 04:59:07 PM »
There's got to be an alturnative to money.  I'm just not studdied up enough on this issue to know what the answer would be.  But yeah, lobyists are a large problem as well.  It's like "we the people" don't matter anymore.  And we don't have access to our elected officials anymore either.  It's a frusterating time to be an american.
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would have thought the same thing but seeing the OP was TAC i immediately thought Maiden or DT related
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Offline Shadow Ninja 2.0

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1986 on: July 02, 2020, 07:45:44 PM »
I kinda wonder how useful defining your entire political identity around Trump is going to be in 2024.
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Offline lonestar

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1987 on: July 02, 2020, 07:48:44 PM »
I kinda wonder how useful defining your entire political identity around Trump is going to be in 2024.

Yeah, if Donnie loses, and especially if the house and senate go blue, he's gonna get fucking dragged for four years, that is if he doesn't bail to Russia the moment Joe takes office.

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1988 on: July 04, 2020, 08:20:17 PM »
You guys were all kicking around the idea of what kind of scenarios we could be looking at if Trump loses. What do you think of this possible scenario from an opinion article out of Newsweek?

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1989 on: July 04, 2020, 10:09:38 PM »
You guys were all kicking around the idea of what kind of scenarios we could be looking at if Trump loses. What do you think of this possible scenario from an opinion article out of Newsweek?

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
Sounds a little far fetched, but also scarily possible. What I wonder is I'd the republicans in the house would go along with it? The article assumes everyone votes along party lines. Are there enough republicans sick of Trump to vote for Biden in this scenario? Especially knowing that he should rightfully be president?

Offline Northern Lion

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1990 on: July 04, 2020, 11:29:02 PM »
You guys were all kicking around the idea of what kind of scenarios we could be looking at if Trump loses. What do you think of this possible scenario from an opinion article out of Newsweek?

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
Sounds a little far fetched, but also scarily possible. What I wonder is I'd the republicans in the house would go along with it? The article assumes everyone votes along party lines. Are there enough republicans sick of Trump to vote for Biden in this scenario? Especially knowing that he should rightfully be president?

It's interesting for sure, but I also think it's unlikely and kind of fearmongering.  Although my opinion of Trump has waned recently, I just don't think he's the potential dictator that some others think he is.
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Offline Cool Chris

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1991 on: July 04, 2020, 11:34:33 PM »
Well, for those who despair at having to decide between Trump and Biden, fear no longer!

https://news.yahoo.com/rapper-kanye-west-announces-u-023307380.html
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Offline Northern Lion

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Re: The 2020 Election Thread
« Reply #1992 on: July 04, 2020, 11:40:06 PM »
Well, for those who despair at having to decide between Trump and Biden, fear no longer!

https://news.yahoo.com/rapper-kanye-west-announces-u-023307380.html

 :rollin

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