Dream Theater's promo cycle (and Distance over Time)

[robwebster]

So! I've been thinking about how it's been two weeks and we still don't have a tracklisting for Distance over Time, and I've been thinking about how we haven't had a single yet even though it feels like ages since they announced it... so I decided to do a bit of research!

Presenting - the promo cycle timeline:



Basically, I've looked at every album since records began (/Systematic Chaos) and written down when they released a single, tracklisting, etc. My findings are as follows:

* It isn't that unusual not to have a tracklisting yet. SC didn't have one for a couple of weeks, and DT12 took about a month before they confirmed anything!
* We probably shouldn't expect the first single until early January. There is predecent for earlier singles, but in over half of cases, our first full song from the new album didn't arrive until at least 50 days after the reveal date.

That said, this is their first album with a new label, so all predictions are to be taken with a huge grain of salt!

I've gone into way more depth on my blog, but those are the bits I thought were most interesting.

[gzarruk]

Very interesting!

If we look at Haken's Vector campaign (same record label), they released 3 singles for the album before the release. DT has done this too, sometimes. DT12 had 3 songs released before the album (TEI, then AFTR, and finally TLG), and TA had 2 singles before the release of the album (TGOM and MOB).

If we consider how DOT basically has shorter songs (let's assume there's no 20 min epic this time), that gives us a lot of good shorter song options that could work well as singles, so I'm willing to bet they go full mode this time and release at least 2 or 3 songs before the release of the album, just to keep the hype up and keep the doubting fans convinced this is the albums they've been waiting for.

My suspicion is that we get a new song either this coming week or the last week of November (maybe the first of December, but no later than that) and then we get another one in mid to late January; with a possible third one a week before the album release date. If this is the case, they can't release the singles too close from each other, and that's why I'm suggesting a "1 per month" release schedule.

Hope it all makes sense

[RMGadelha]

I sure hope we get more stuff soon, at least the tracklist. My selfish side is kind of tired of reading about the north american tour. ;p

[Sebastián Pratesi]

Cool post, Rob! I just finished reading your blog as well.

Some feedback: The Astonishing was actually announced on November 2, not December.
Source: https://twitter.com/dreamtheaternet/status/661305826645176320

Another aspect I think might be interesting to discuss: Systematic chaos, the first album on a new label, was also the band's first Top 20 release on the Billboard 200 chart, and (as we all know) the following three albums reached the Top 10. (At #11, The Astonishing was the highest charting rock album on the chart at the time, so that's a big deal as well, I think.)

I haven't looked into the popularity of InsideOut albums, but I understand that they do their best to promote their artists. I have a feeling that Distance over time (again, a first release on a new label) will also be a Top 10 debut - maybe a Top 5?

[robwebster]

Cool post, Rob! I just finished reading your blog as well.

Some feedback: The Astonishing was actually announced on November 2, not December.
Source: https://twitter.com/dreamtheaternet/status/661305826645176320

That's a really good catch, thank you! I'll have to re-do some of this when I get back this evening, I must have struggled to find a citation for that one. It was also the last one I did, so maybe I was getting a bit fatigued. (It's surprisingly hard to track some of those dates down - case in point!)

I'm not 100% sure on chart position. InsideOut is a more specialist label than RoadRunner, so I wouldn't necessarily expect a higher placing. My take was that RoadRunner really succeeded at getting Dream Theater onto the front cover of Kerrang and into the hands of young adult metalheads, which did help their profile a lot. InsideOut is more of a progressive label, and how often do we really see that hit the chart? Dream Theater are probably their highest-profile artist.

It'd be a lot of fun to model something like that though; I suspect the most important factors are "what else is happening that day," and "how is the album released?" My understanding is that the US Billboard chart counts discs, rather than units, so BCSL's special edition counted as three discs, which helped DT get their best ever chart placing at number 6. Top 5 would be unprecedented.

That said, DoT only seems to be competing with a 1970s heavy metal band called Rock Goddess at the moment - so who knows! Maybe Distance over Time will luck out with a quiet week. I don't think InsideOut will be what gives their chart position a boost, though.

[IDontNotDoThings]

so BC&SL had every song on it released as a single before the album came out 

[Setlist Scotty]

It'd be a lot of fun to model something like that though; I suspect the most important factors are "what else is happening that day," and "how is the album released?"

That definitely plays a role in what position the album ends up being. Not to mention that with album sales dropping off significantly in recent years due to streaming, bands with more loyal fans (who will actually buy the album) are seeing higher chart numbers than ever before.
 
 

My understanding is that the US Billboard chart counts discs, rather than units, so BCSL's special edition counted as three discs, which helped DT get their best ever chart placing at number 6. Top 5 would be unprecedented.

While it is true that a multiple disc set will "double" the sales count, I don't believe that is the case when it comes to bonus discs. Had BCaSL truly been a double album (as were SDoIT and TA), then both discs would count towards sales. But because one was of covers and the other instrumental versions, I don't believe this is the case.
 
 

so BC&SL had every song on it released as a single before the album came out 

My memory is a bit foggy, but besides ARoP, I think the different covers were released ahead of time too.

[dream75]

Very interesting!

If we look at Haken's Vector campaign (same record label), they released 3 singles for the album before the release. DT has done this too, sometimes. DT12 had 3 songs released before the album (TEI, then AFTR, and finally TLG), and TA had 2 singles before the release of the album (TGOM and MOB).

If we consider how DOT basically has shorter songs (let's assume there's no 20 min epic this time), that gives us a lot of good shorter song options that could work well as singles, so I'm willing to bet they go full mode this time and release at least 2 or 3 songs before the release of the album, just to keep the hype up and keep the doubting fans convinced this is the albums they've been waiting for.

My suspicion is that we get a new song either this coming week or the last week of November (maybe the first of December, but no later than that) and then we get another one in mid to late January; with a possible third one a week before the album release date. If this is the case, they can't release the singles too close from each other, and that's why I'm suggesting a "1 per month" release schedule.

Hope it all makes sense

For me is too early November 😑 I think the first single will be a Christmas present then in about a month. The second at the beginning of February

[robwebster]

I've updated The Astonishing's promo cycle - seamless! Thank you Sebastián Pratesi!

so BC&SL had every song on it released as a single before the album came out 

A Rite of Passage, Stargazer, Tenament Funster, Odyssey, Take Your Fingers from My Hair, Lark's Tongues in Aspic!

While it is true that a multiple disc set will "double" the sales count, I don't believe that is the case when it comes to bonus discs. Had BCaSL truly been a double album (as were SDoIT and TA), then both discs would count towards sales. But because one was of covers and the other instrumental versions, I don't believe this is the case.

That's interesting! I wonder how they draw the line between bonuses and special editions. I definitely need to look into Billboard rankings a little bit more.

[Sebastián Pratesi]

I've updated The Astonishing's promo cycle - seamless! Thank you Sebastián Pratesi!

No problem! As for Billboard: I recall reading recently that, nowadays, even streaming some songs counts as one copy of the album sold. So, the way the charts are put together depends on many factors indeed, and is not comparable to the late 2000s. (Even though only 10 years have passed.)

All of this talk about new album cycles reminded me of the time I waited for Years of Refusal by Morrissey, back in 2008. The album was done by May, and a press-release stated it would come out in September. In the end, it was released in February 2009. Man, that one was a long wait!

[ariich]

so BC&SL had every song on it released as a single before the album came out 

A Rite of Passage, Stargazer, Tenament Funster, Odyssey, Take Your Fingers from My Hair, Lark's Tongues in Aspic!

I'm not sure the covers count.

And I believe Inside Out has quite a lot of say over promo approach (noxon may be able to give a more informed view here) so Inside Out's recent approach might be a better indicator than DT's past albums.

[TAC]

My memory is a bit foggy, but besides ARoP, I think the different covers were released ahead of time too.

AROP and ANTR were released early. The rest of the album wasn't. And yes, the covers were released, one weekly, starting 5 or 6 weeks out from the release.

[ToT-147]

ANTR was a single?..

[TAC]

No but it was available. MP may have played it on Eddie Trunk’s show, or something like that.

[ToT-147]

That's awesome.. I mean, it has to be the longest song in music history to be officially released before the album!..

[Darkstarshades]

Does the standalone release of Illumination Theory count as a single?

[ToT-147]

I don't remember IT being released before the album..

[lucasembarbosa]

I don't remember IT being released before the album..

The singles released before the album were The Enemy Inside and then Along For The Ride, just a few days before.

[gzarruk]

I don't remember IT being released before the album..

The singles released before the album were The Enemy Inside and then Along For The Ride, just a few days before.

I think JP premiered The Looking Glass for some kind of rock radio or something too.

[ToT-147]

I don't remember IT being released before the album..

The singles released before the album were The Enemy Inside and then Along For The Ride, just a few days before.

Exactly..

[lucasembarbosa]

So. Given the recent discovery of another song titles, I think we can expect soon an announcement with the entire tracklist (and possibly timestamps?), as it's been 23 days since the official announcement of DOT (November 6th). Any thoughts?

[pg1067]

So. Given the recent discovery of another song titles, I think we can expect soon an announcement with the entire tracklist (and possibly timestamps?), as it's been 23 days since the official announcement of DOT (November 6th). Any thoughts?

Definitely....

Or perhaps not....

Why do I get the impression that a lot of y'all look for and open and then re-wrap presents before Christmas?   

[RMGadelha]

Why do I get the impression that a lot of y'all look for and open and then re-wrap presents before Christmas   

Maybe because I haven't been getting Christmas presents for ages now. 

[lucasembarbosa]

Maybe because we have nothing else to do about our lives but wasting our time speculating on DT's new releases...   

[gzarruk]

So. Given the recent discovery of another song titles, I think we can expect soon an announcement with the entire tracklist (and possibly timestamps?), as it's been 23 days since the official announcement of DOT (November 6th). Any thoughts?

I think they'll release the full tracklist after the 3rd video interview.

[IDontNotDoThings]

So. Given the recent discovery of another song titles, I think we can expect soon an announcement with the entire tracklist (and possibly timestamps?), as it's been 23 days since the official announcement of DOT (November 6th). Any thoughts?

Wait, was that the actual date it was announced?

That's my birthday

[RMGadelha]

And my birthday is on December 8th. A single would be a nice little gift (of music).

[Darkstarshades]

Maybe because we have nothing else to do about our lives but wasting our time speculating on DT's new releases...   

Speculation was way heavier in The Astonishing

[Max Kuehnau]

Maybe because we have nothing else to do about our lives but wasting our time speculating on DT's new releases...   

Speculation was way heavier in The Astonishing

very true

[Max Kuehnau]

So. Given the recent discovery of another song titles, I think we can expect soon an announcement with the entire tracklist (and possibly timestamps?), as it's been 23 days since the official announcement of DOT (November 6th). Any thoughts?

Wait, was that the actual date it was announced?

That's my birthday

Nov 6th was when IO released their press release yes. The band press release in conjuction and context of the end of the treasure hunt (and the two YT snippets, US dates and things) was released on Nov. 2nd.

[noxon]

For the Astonishing we had a lot more to speculate about since they released small pieces of information about the concept constantly throughout.

[jonny108]

Thanks for this Rob.  Judging by the above graph we should hopefully have a complete tracklist soon. If we're lucky a single in December but January is probably more likely. 

[Party Mike]

No but it was available. MP may have played it on Eddie Trunk’s show, or something like that.

Actually, it was leaked by a fan playing it on the (online?) radio station where they worked months before release. Mike Portnoy found out and announced that he got them fired.

[robwebster]

Not to toot my own horn, but... toot toot toot!



Tracklist announcement followed the album announcement by 28 days.

Not really release date related, but I've also updated my blog with some charts and commentary on album length. Just in case there are any other chart fans...

[rab7]

I'm curious to see what the chart would look like with the double albums removed.

TA and 6DOIT stretch the graph vertically so the drop from the 75+ minute albums doesn't look so dramatic.