The (negotiating) position by Marner right now isn't around goals scored, it's around value to the team - and he's pegging Matthews as his "comparable". Well, he's over-valuing himself in a big-big way, and he isn't the only one (Laine is supposedly asking for $10M+). I hope these GMs knock them down a peg. Lots and lots of rumours are flying around, but if Marner doesn't get any offer sheets, then his only leverage is holding out. Dubas isn't even asking for a 'hometown' discount, and I do think he is willing to over-pay him. He's just not (rightly so) willing to make him the 3rd $11M-man on the team. Those economics don't work to build a team around.
At the $$ that Marner wants, I do think the Leafs may let him go for the four 1st rounders they'd get in return. That, or (like O'Reilly) match and trade. The problem with taking the 4 first rounders is that 2 are next years; 2 can be in 2021. So, the team will have burned most of Matthews contract without the value of those assets. So, match and trade makes more sense to build a team around Matthews (and Tavares) for immediate benefit, not benefit in 2022/23.
Marner would be crazy to leave. The Leafs can put SOOOO much of his contract up front (wasn't Nylander's like $18M signing bonus, and he's getting $8.3M payment on July 1 - that's almost 1/2 his contract paid out in the first 8 months!). Plus, the endorsement deals that he would get as a Leaf blow away what Florida or the Islanders could possibly offer. Plus friends and family are all here.
I'm hopeful that a lot of the rumours are just media BS, and that he ultimately signs for the low 10s. I think that's a landing point Dubas would be comfortable with.