2017 NFL thread v. Patriots Dynasty

[Dream Team]

I have no problem with Brady winning MVP. The patriots would be nothing this year without him. Now, if Wentz didn't get hurt I'd prefer him. Love Gurley but there are a lot of good players on that team.

The trouble with that line of reasoning is that they DO win without him. 3-1 last year, 11-5 in 2008. Contrast those records with how the Packers and Steelers for example fare with backup QBs over the years.

Actually this reminded me to conduct a quick but fascinating experiment with the assistance of Football Reference. Bear with me on this for a second, putting bias or homerism aside, just numbers:

 I think most fans agree, and especially Patriot fans, that Belichick is a MUCH better coach than Tomlin. Tomlin's stupidity is on display all the time. How much better is BB? Is it worth maybe 2 wins a year? Let's assume that is the case. Now switch those coaches to the other teams - the Brady years with Tomlin and the Ben years with Belichick. If Tomlin's cluelessness costs his team 2 wins a year, then Brady's record (16 full seasons x 2 games per year = 32 wins turned to losses) goes from 195-55 to 163-87. If Ben is 2 games BETTER every year with Belichick for his 14 years x 2 wins per year, his record goes from 135-63 to 163-35! Since most NE fans no doubt find that result very distasteful, you can do the math with only 1 win per year instead of 2. In that case Brady is 179-71 (.716%) and Ben is 149-49 (.753%), which pro-rated to Brady's 250 games comes out to 188-62. So there we have it - either Tomlin is as good as BB or Ben is every bit as good at Brady at winning when you factor in getting hamstrung by Tomlin. By the way, before you ask, over this entire period since Brady became the starter, the defenses' points allowed per game are 18.6 for NE and 18.3 for Pit, so no advantage for Ben and the Patriots have had much better special teams which is one of BB's greatest strengths as coach.

My point: I know people can't get past Ben's interceptions this year, but 40% of them were in ONE game. They only lost 2 other games. Second in yards, only 5 TDs behind the league leader, and a bunch of last-minute come-from-behind wins. Of course he's an MVP candidate even if the fantasy stats aren't quite as pretty. Everyone touted Brown as an MVP candidate, and yet the same people agree Ben is the guy the Steelers absolutely cannot do without. He won when Bell missed a bunch of time too the past few years, with an old running back that was out of the league the next year. So not saying he should win it over Gurley or Wentz or those guys, but he's every bit as valuable to his team as Brady is.

[El Barto]

While I agree with the "how important to their team are they" metric, I don't think it's fair to penalize a player because his coach is so good. In any case, I think the eyeball test kind of sums it up. Pitt has the leading receiver and 3rd leading RB playing alongside Ben. If he gets hurt they have two guys who can carry a game on their own. The fact that Tomlin might fuck it all up doesn't negate their relative value which offsets Ben's. 

[King Postwhore]

Even with 11-5 they did not make the playoffs that year.  Also, the year before was 18-1 (shut it Kev ) and 11-5 is a huge drop off.

[KevShmev]

And the year after that, WITH Brady, they went 10-6. 

[King Postwhore]

Yep. That's when Belichick knew this team was not responding to him. We saw that in a day in the life Bill Belichick on the NFL Network. That's when they gutted everything and they brought in the two rookie tight ends. You know the greatest tight end ever and the murderer.

[PowerSlave]

While I agree with the "how important to their team are they" metric, I don't think it's fair to penalize a player because his coach is so good. In any case, I think the eyeball test kind of sums it up. Pitt has the leading receiver and 3rd leading RB playing alongside Ben. If he gets hurt they have two guys who can carry a game on their own. The fact that Tomlin might fuck it all up doesn't negate their relative value which offsets Ben's.

Both player's numbers greatly decrease without Ben under center. AB's numbers when Vick and Jones took over for a stretch of games a few years ago were pedestrian at best. I can try to do some homework and pull up the exact stats if anyone is interested, but they were a little bit ugly.

[Stadler]

I have no problem with Brady winning MVP. The patriots would be nothing this year without him. Now, if Wentz didn't get hurt I'd prefer him. Love Gurley but there are a lot of good players on that team.

The trouble with that line of reasoning is that they DO win without him. 3-1 last year, 11-5 in 2008. Contrast those records with how the Packers and Steelers for example fare with backup QBs over the years.

Let's not read too much into that 3-1 start, though.    That was TOTAL system football there, and the wheels were starting to come off the wagon when Brady returned.   Garoppolo was hurt and that stretch - I believe - proved to Belichick that Brissett was never going to be the guy.   The offense in that stretch was simplistic on a Pop Warner level, and never would have survived two times around the division.  You saw something similar in 2008 with Cassel.  The games seemed to be blowouts or very close, and the Pats - uncharacteristically - didn't do so hot in the close ones. 

I think that's a testament to the coaching staff, that they are willing to scrap the entire gameplan on a game-by-game basis (and why Wade Phillips got - and deserved - so many kudos for the Denver Super Bowl a couple years ago). 

[mikeyd23]

So to summarize the last page... Ben is as good as Brady...? 

[PowerSlave]

So to summarize the last page... Ben is as good as Brady...? 

I'm not inferring that. I can't speak for anyone else, but I do think that he is usually greatly under-rated.

[TAC]

So to summarize the last page... Ben is as good as Brady...? 

I'm not inferring that. I can't speak for anyone else, but I do think that he is usually greatly under-rated.

Who? Ben? I totally agree.

[PowerSlave]

So to summarize the last page... Ben is as good as Brady...? 

I'm not inferring that. I can't speak for anyone else, but I do think that he is usually greatly under-rated.

Who? Ben? I totally agree.

Yeah. I do think that a lot of his physical skills that he used to rely on in his younger days have abandoned him, but he's still one of a handful of QB's that are well above in the league.

[KevShmev]

I think Roethlisberger is one of the more exciting QBs to watch, because he seems old school in the sense of dropping back and finding a way to scrape and make a play, similar to how Elway and Favre were. 

On the flip side, I have never thought Manning and Brady were that exciting to watch.  It's like, it's obvious that watching them dissect defenses in a methodical way is awesome from a technical standpoint, but it's not always fun to watch.  I mean, watching Brady throw a 1-yard pass to Edelman who turns it into a 9-yard gain is great from a strategic standpoint, but it's not exciting football.  We see way too many of those boring-type plays in the NFL now, which is one reason why the product is disintegrating.

[Cool Chris]

We see way too many of those boring-type plays in the NFL now, which is one reason why the product is disintegrating.

Except with the Pats we are seeing it translated in to championships. With many other teams, we are seeing it translate to mediocrity.

[DragonAttack]

As a Ravens fan, I've seen more than my share of Ben.  I admire the hell out of his durability, toughness, of the almost impossible task of tackling him, and I can't wait for him to retire.

Brady is the 'master'.  In a game against Balto last year, I can't tell you how many times I noticed how well the receivers were covered, the opening for a completion was maybe the size of a basketball hoop......and that's where the ball was thrown.  It's that way week after week.  And I can't wait for him to retire.

Manning had that 'sixth sense' about him.  That playoff loss to the Irsays in '06 will forever sting, but is tempered with that Mile High win in '12.

Excitement is all kind of relative, I guess.  Bart Starr was never an exciting QB, but he did a thing or two to excite Packer fans. 

[TheCountOfNYC]

On the flip side, I have never thought Manning and Brady were that exciting to watch.  It's like, it's obvious that watching them dissect defenses in a methodical way is awesome from a technical standpoint, but it's not always fun to watch.  I mean, watching Brady throw a 1-yard pass to Edelman who turns it into a 9-yard gain is great from a strategic standpoint, but it's not exciting football.  We see way too many of those boring-type plays in the NFL now, which is one reason why the product is disintegrating.

Honesty this is why I watch football. If I want nonstop excitement, I’ll watch hockey. I enjoy the strategic aspect of the game far more than I enjoy the violent aspect of it.

[mikeyd23]

So to summarize the last page... Ben is as good as Brady...? 

I'm not inferring that. I can't speak for anyone else, but I do think that he is usually greatly under-rated.

Who? Ben? I totally agree.

Yeah. I do think that a lot of his physical skills that he used to rely on in his younger days have abandoned him, but he's still one of a handful of QB's that are well above in the league.

Well, my original comment was certainly a joke, I’m a Ben guy, but at this point I consider Brady the greatest to ever play the position...

That said, he is frequently underrated in a variety of ways. Dude is a stud, a champion, and a nailed on hall of fame QB that will go down as the best QB of a pretty distinguished franchise.

[KevShmev]

I think he is rated about right. Despite never really being elite, he was usually right near the top of the 2nd tier of QBs, and he won't have any problem making the Hall.  He is no Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees, but there is nothing wrong with going down as the 5th best QB of your era when the guys above you were that good.

[mikeyd23]

I think he is rated about right. Despite never really being elite, he was usually right near the top of the 2nd tier of QBs, and he won't have any problem making the Hall.  He is no Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees, but there is nothing wrong with going down as the 5th best QB of your era when the guys above you were that good.

That right there proves how underrated he is! 

[KevShmev]

 

How so?

[mikeyd23]

How so?

Because it underrated him... at this point in the guys career with all he has done, to not consider him an elite QB is nuts.

I know you and I disagree on this and have gone back and forth on it before, so I know where you are coming from, I just totally disagree.

[max_security]

Third attempt to type this ( cause I hate the stillers , however ) , ... Ben has played at a high level throughout his career against some very tough defenses YEAR AFTER YEAR , often with less than an ideal supporting cast. I have serious doubts that any current QB would fare as well under the same conditions. Ben is a tough sob if nothing else.

[jingle.boy]

Ben is a tough sob if nothing else.

Coming back in after that brutal sack by Burfect a couple playoffs ago .... to lead the game-winning drive proves that beyond any shadow of a doubt.

[King Postwhore]

Ben is tough as nails.  His magic is on the run passing but it's also an issue getting hit like he does.

[TAC]

I think he is rated about right. Despite never really being elite, he was usually right near the top of the 2nd tier of QBs, and he won't have any problem making the Hall.  He is no Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees, but there is nothing wrong with going down as the 5th best QB of your era when the guys above you were that good.

Brady and Manning are on a different level. I put Ben with Rogers and Brees, and in the absence of Brady, that is elite.

Calling Ben a 2nd tier QB is not right in my eyes. He's been one of the 5 best QBs his entire career it seems.

[DragonAttack]

^
Yup, except I put Brees a notch down.

Class guy, absolutely great QB.......who gets to play in a dome 9+ times a year. 

[TAC]

Nice video featuring Belichick and his old coach from the 70's.
https://www.patriots.com/video/2017/12/29/nfl-films-presents-bill-belichick-and-rick-forzano

[KevShmev]

How so?

Because it underrated him... at this point in the guys career with all he has done, to not consider him an elite QB is nuts.

I know you and I disagree on this and have gone back and forth on it before, so I know where you are coming from, I just totally disagree.

Okay, but when you say "with all he has done," what exactly do you mean?  His first Super Bowl title was before he had really evolved into being elite/great/whatever you want to call him (similar to Brady for his first couple rings), and he he has ZERO MVP awards, no All-Pro team achievements to brag about, etc.  He has always hovered just below that elite tier of QBs, so it is hard for me to call a guy elite when he has never really consistently been elite (from season to season, not looking at a game here or a game there).  Consider that he followed up his 2 best statistical seasons (2007 and 2014) with blah seasons.  The truly elite guys are elite year in and year out.

Third attempt to type this ( cause I hate the stillers , however ) , ... Ben has played at a high level throughout his career against some very tough defenses YEAR AFTER YEAR , often with less than an ideal supporting cast. I have serious doubts that any current QB would fare as well under the same conditions. Ben is a tough sob if nothing else.

Wait, what?

He has had a top 10 defense in 9 of his 13 seasons (and the number 1 defense in 4 of them).

The last five seasons, he has had the guy who the best WR of his generation (Antonio Brown) AND one of the best RBs of the 21st century (LeVeon Bell).

Prior to that, he had for the first seven years of his career Hines Ward, who, while no Hall of Famer, was really good.  And while their peaks weren't long-lasting, Mike Wallace and Willie Parker were nothing to sneeze at there for a while.

Brady and Manning are on a different level. I put Ben with Rogers and Brees, and in the absence of Brady, that is elite.

Calling Ben a 2nd tier QB is not right in my eyes. He's been one of the 5 best QBs his entire career it seems.

With all due respect, there is no way on God's green earth that Ben is on the same level as Rodgers.

[TAC]

With all due respect, there is no way on God's green earth that Ben is on the same level as Rodgers.

Is he better than Rodgers? Maybe not. Is he in Rodgers' class? I believe he is.

The TAC Research Center will be looking into this today.

[KevShmev]

Regular season TD-INT ratio:

Rodgers: 313-78
Roethlisberger: 325-173

Playoffs TD-INT ratio:

Rodgers: 36-10
Roethlisberger: 25-23

Imagine if Rodgers had had the number 1 defense in the NFL 4 times already. He probably would have caught Montana's ring count already and would be threatening to catch Brady's.

[El Barto]

I think Roethlisberger is one of the more exciting QBs to watch, because he seems old school in the sense of dropping back and finding a way to scrape and make a play, similar to how Elway and Favre were. 

Bingo. Elway has always been my favorite QB, and it's impossible to not love watching Favre be Favre. Ben has the added advantage of being one of the toughest guys on the field. That leads to situations when he gets to play injured as hell and still be the gunslinger, which is about as good as football can get. The 2015 AFC WC game is known mostly for Burfict and Pacman imploding magnificently, but overshadowed was some fantastic play by an injured Rothlesburger toughing it out for the team. I've never been a fan, but I'm certainly an admirer of the guy as a football player.

[El Barto]

It really can't be said too many times that Mike Tomlin is a fucking idiot.

[KevShmev]

The end of the NE/Pitt game was a clear demonstration that Tomlin is not a great head coach.

The Jesse James play was literally reviewed for nearly 4 minutes. A great coach has his team ready for whatever is coming next. You have to know that the play could be called a no-catch and you might have 2nd and goal from the 9 or 10, but nope, the Steelers looked like a team that had no clue what to do once the James TD was overruled, hence the stupid 2nd down play (throwing to a guy running a crossing pattern who has no shot of scoring or getting out of bounds, meaning you have to hurry the 3rd down play) and then a 3rd down play where everyone on offense was not on the same page (Bell and several WRs just stood there and didn't even run a route while Ben was panicking and throwing the pick).  It was laughably bad execution.

Meanwhile, the Patriots looked like a team that was ready for anything and made the play to win the game.

It's no wonder that Belichick always makes Tomlin his bitch, despite the Steelers usually having better players (except QB and TE).

[TAC]

Regular season TD-INT ratio:

Rodgers: 313-78
Roethlisberger: 325-173

Playoffs TD-INT ratio:

Rodgers: 36-10
Roethlisberger: 25-23

Imagine if Rodgers had had the number 1 defense in the NFL 4 times already. He probably would have caught Montana's ring count already and would be threatening to catch Brady's.

Well, those are impressive passing stats for sure, yet from what I can see, and I've only been gleaning stats since 2008 (When Rodgers became a full time starter), Rogers has a 104 to 94 edge in Passer Rating, yet the Packer's have only scored 3 more points per game in that time period than the Steelers.

Each team has 5 Division titles with the Packers making the playoffs 8 times compared to 7 for the Steelers. Ben is 2-1 in Conference championship during those years (3-2 overall), while Rodgers is 1-3.

...still crunching some numbers...

[jingle.boy]

*stats that show I'm right*

*other stats that show I'm more right*

 

Can't wait to see who can cherry-pick the stats that make their case the strongest.   

Spoiler alert - neither of you will convince the other that they are more right/wrong.

[TAC]

*stats that show I'm right*

*other stats that show I'm more right*