The Astonishing Billboard Chart Prediction (merged)

[cramx3]

I think DT's fans are more dedicatd to the band and also are more likely to be interested in the best sound so purchasing the CD is the best option vs. streaming not only for sound, but for support of the band.

[Architeuthis]

This!  I bought two copies of the album and gave one to a friend. Good way to spread the word. Not always easy on the wallet, but worth it to me.

[Ben_Jamin]

I think it's because of having lyrics to understand the story a bit.

[SebastianPratesi]

This!  I bought two copies of the album and gave one to a friend. Good way to spread the word. Not always easy on the wallet, but worth it to me.

I did exactly the same thing, and it wasn't easy on my wallet either. He had given Johnny Ramone's autobiography to me as a late Christmas present, and it's an expensive book, so I had to answer back.

[SnakeEyes]

Um.  No, #11 isn't bad at all.  Look who is above them.  Justin Bieber, Adele, Twenty One Pilots.  It's not like they're being overtaken by a bunch of obscure artists that no one has ever heard of.  The only people ahead of them are the top pop artists who you'd EXPECT to be ahead of them. 

[Lax]

A bad quality stream of bieber doesn't lessen the quality of his songs, but we DT fans could not stand a bad sound when listening to our band ! I think sound quality for this band is a criteria for buying the albums physical/vynil/mp3/raw...

[Enigmachine]

Album sold 30k in US. https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6874761/dream-theater-first-no-1-top-rock-albums

[SwedishGoose]

Last week #3 in Sweden, now #54.... the fans buy it on release day 

[hefdaddy42]

Um.  No, #11 isn't bad at all.  Look who is above them.  Justin Bieber, Adele, Twenty One Pilots.  It's not like they're being overtaken by a bunch of obscure artists that no one has ever heard of.  The only people ahead of them are the top pop artists who you'd EXPECT to be ahead of them.

Exactly.  Nothing to be ashamed of here.

[Architeuthis]

I'm curious to see how many have been sold worldwide now in the first two weeks..

[wizard of Thought]

Last week #3 in Sweden, now #54.... the fans buy it on release day 

In Germany, it went from #5 to #41, so yeah, but that`s with quite some metal bands. The new Avantasia album was #2 last week, now it`s also along #30-40.

[TheOutlawXanadu]

30k units sold isn't bad at all. The decline from DT12 is about what you'd expect considering what I think is a general decline in album sales in general.

[Peter Mc]

Not surprising to me that this is a bit down on the last few albums. Number one, it's a double album so I would guess is more expensive. Number two, it is a pretty divisive album, especially if you are predominantly a metal fan, which I would guess many DT fans are. The album was up on YouTube for free so people could try before they buy. I would think a lot of the more metal DT fans would be horrified at the Disney show tune style of many songs and would not have bought the album. I know they have streamed the previous two albums but they were not huge departures from the DT template and would not have instantly scared people off. I suppose you could argue that the shorter tracks and less instrumental noodling may make this more accessible but, again, a double album of musical theatre is probably a bit of a daunting prospect when trying to attract new fans.

I was surprised it charted as well as it did in the UK and am also surprised at how well it's been received on here and over at the MP forum. Some have expressed their dissatisfaction but most seem to be full of praise.

I personally love the album and haven't listened to anything else since getting it but am not shocked to see sales are a little down in the US at least.

[Enigmachine]

Not surprising to me that this is a bit down on the last few albums. Number one, it's a double album so I would guess is more expensive. Number two, it is a pretty divisive album, especially if you are predominantly a metal fan, which I would guess many DT fans are. The album was up on YouTube for free so people could try before they buy. I would think a lot of the more metal DT fans would be horrified at the Disney show tune style of many songs and would not have bought the album. I know they have streamed the previous two albums but they were not huge departures from the DT template and would not have instantly scared people off. I suppose you could argue that the shorter tracks and less instrumental noodling may make this more accessible but, again, a double album of musical theatre is probably a bit of a daunting prospect when trying to attract new fans.

Well, declining sales across all music recently could be a reason too, but I think what you said would probably be some significant factors as well.

[Ħ]

You guys think there's any chance of a grammy nomination this album?

[Architeuthis]

You guys think there's any chance of a grammy nomination this album?

Doubtful, even though there are several songs worthy of it on this album.. The whole album should be up for a Grammy IMO..

[Ħ]

You guys think there's any chance of a grammy nomination this album?

Doubtful, even though there are several songs worthy of it on this album.. The whole album should be up for a Grammy IMO..

That's what I meant, the album as a whole.

[hefdaddy42]

You guys think there's any chance of a grammy nomination this album?

Doubtful, even though there are several songs worthy of it on this album.. The whole album should be up for a Grammy IMO..

That's what I meant, the album as a whole.

I do think that is possible, especially given the Grammy cred of 2 previous nominations and the good reviews almost everywhere.

[YtseJamittaja]

https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6874761/dream-theater-first-no-1-top-rock-albums

EDIT: oh, it was already here...

[TL]

All considered, 30,000 in first week US sales is pretty decent.

I don't think the slight dip has much to do with the changing face of music sales between 2013 and now. I think it has more to do with the concept/style being a bit polarizing. Personally, I like that they weren't hesitant to limit the amount of metal and heaviness; that they were willing to go all in on the 'musical' style. I could definitely see some DT fans, especially some of the fans they gained from SC onward, not being as into it. I love a well done musical, and honestly would consider comparisons to 'Disney movies' a compliment, given the style. There are definitely some who won't even give that sort of thing a shot though.


I also didn't realize that this is their first #1 on the US Rock chart. That's pretty cool.

[Enigmachine]

Even though it has sold less than DT12, I believe that it will make more money due to a price increase for the double album format.

[ErHaO]

You guys think there's any chance of a grammy nomination this album?

I don't think so, and there is also no formal single this time. But it at least has a few factors in favour for them; They already have had two nominations, David Campbell's involvement probably attracts some additional interest within the industry, and this album has some of the most accessible tunes for non-metal/DT fans (my parents, for example, love it and it reminds them of classic rock opera's such as Jesus Christ Superstar and Tommy). Furthermore, I am also curious about the further plans DT has for TA, such as the novel and possible other related works. Those could add to TA's recognition as well. But still, I doubt it.

Good to see the album is doing well!

[?]

Last week #3 in Sweden, now #54.... the fans buy it on release day 

In Finland it dropped from #2 to #9, but that probably has something to do with the fact that one big record store chain ran out of copies of it in the first week, so some fans probably had to wait.

[cramx3]

Last week #3 in Sweden, now #54.... the fans buy it on release day 

In Finland it dropped from #2 to #9, but that probably has something to do with the fact that one big record store chain ran out of copies of it in the first week, so some fans probably had to wait.

That's typical with a DT release.  Always a huge drop after the first week on the charts.

[ytserush]

But those numbers seem to be what was expected.  I don't see any reason to be disappointed.  People just don't have the time to buy hard copies of music anymore.

Even when it was just album sales, the Billboard 200 has included digital album sales for years.

Really? I did not know that.  I thought the ~28,000 number was albums sold.

It is. It includes both physical albums, and digital albums as long as it was bought as an album.

That said, something I literally just learned in the past few minutes; the Billboard 200 apparently takes album sales, track sales, and streaming into account now. So ~28,000 is just albums sold, which makes it the 6th best selling album that week. When those other things are taken into account, it gets bumped down to #11.

28,000?  So does that mean I just about nailed it?

28,000 in the US. Who knows what chart position that equates?

[ytserush]

All considered, 30,000 in first week US sales is pretty decent.

I don't think the slight dip has much to do with the changing face of music sales between 2013 and now. I think it has more to do with the concept/style being a bit polarizing. Personally, I like that they weren't hesitant to limit the amount of metal and heaviness; that they were willing to go all in on the 'musical' style. I could definitely see some DT fans, especially some of the fans they gained from SC onward, not being as into it. I love a well done musical, and honestly would consider comparisons to 'Disney movies' a compliment, given the style. There are definitely some who won't even give that sort of thing a shot though.


I also didn't realize that this is their first #1 on the US Rock chart. That's pretty cool.

OK, so 30,000, not 28,000.

[TL]

For numbers, I'm going entirely off numbers other people in this thread have quoted.

[Dream Team]

There's more than 30,000 fans in the US. Where's the loyalty?

[red barchetta]

first week sales of TA in the US 30,000

first week sales of DT 12 in the US  34,000

first week sales of BCASL in the US   40,000

[erwinrafael]

first week sales of TA in the US 30,000

first week sales of DT 12 in the US  34,000

first week sales of BCASL in the US   40,000

So if we go by gross revenue instead of units sold, TA got them the most money.

[BlobVanDam]

first week sales of TA in the US 30,000

first week sales of DT 12 in the US  34,000

first week sales of BCASL in the US   40,000

So if we go by gross revenue instead of units sold, TA got them the most money.

Did it? Would being a double album make a difference to the royalties DT makes on it? I'm also guessing that the album has to recoup more to break even given how much more music they had to write/record.

[erwinrafael]

I don't know how it works in America, but here the royalties are computed as a percentage of the revenue. If so, then a higher priced double album would earn more royalties.

[BlobVanDam]

I don't know how it works in America, but here the royalties are computed as a percentage of the revenue. If so, then a higher priced double album would earn more royalties.

That's not how I was under the impression it worked for record deals, at least for physical sales. Probably for digital sales.
I think the vast majority of their income would come from touring anyway.

[erwinrafael]

This ASCAP post seems to suggest that the royalty is a percentage of retail price.

https://www.ascap.com/music-career/articles-advice/music-money/money-recording.aspx

[BlobVanDam]

Maybe it is, but as it also says, it has to cover costs, such as recording an album that's twice as long, the hiring of David Campbell to write the orchestral arrangements, the cost of the orchestra/choir to learn and record the parts, and the usual music video etc, plus they took a bit longer than their usual album cycle in general. While the gross revenue of the album may be higher, the difference to the band may be negligible, or more, or even less. The positive spin may be entirely moot for all we know.