Powerball

[yorost]

You guys keep saying the odds are terrible. Actually the odds are amazingly in your favor. In the mathematical long run and world of odds, it's free money.

What's actually awful is the probability. None of us will probably win so...Oh well. It's still fun to dream.

I'm not sure what you mean that the odds are in your favor and how this is free money.

Found this cool article about expected return of purchasing a powerball ticket using the money in the pot today.

https://thefederalist.com/2016/01/12/with-the-jackpot-at-1-4-billion-is-it-finally-rational-to-purchase-a-powerball-ticket/

What’s the end result? A whopping expected payout of $1.12…on a ticket that cost you $2. Once you add in the expected payouts from all the other potential Powerball prizes, that number increases to $1.32. And again, that assumes you live in a state with no income taxes.

So right now, given the advertised cash payout and the number of people playing, it does not make financial sense to purchase a Powerball ticket. That said, we’re not all that far off from a jackpot that might justify the purchase of a ticket. If the lump sum cash payout (not the annuity value) increases to $1.4 billion, and the number of tickets sold hovers around 500 million, the total expected payout of a $2 Powerball ticket will be $2.01, making the purchase of a ticket a rational decision in pure mathematical terms.

Expectation is an important mathematical concept on judging value. Lottery and other long shot scenarios are a important counterpoints to why simple expectation is a poor decision making tool by itself. Higher expectation on a lottery ticket does explain behavior for heavier purchasing, but even when it is wildly positive it does not make those decisions rationally justified.

[cramx3]

You guys keep saying the odds are terrible. Actually the odds are amazingly in your favor. In the mathematical long run and world of odds, it's free money.

What's actually awful is the probability. None of us will probably win so...Oh well. It's still fun to dream.

I'm not sure what you mean that the odds are in your favor and how this is free money.

Found this cool article about expected return of purchasing a powerball ticket using the money in the pot today.

https://thefederalist.com/2016/01/12/with-the-jackpot-at-1-4-billion-is-it-finally-rational-to-purchase-a-powerball-ticket/

What’s the end result? A whopping expected payout of $1.12…on a ticket that cost you $2. Once you add in the expected payouts from all the other potential Powerball prizes, that number increases to $1.32. And again, that assumes you live in a state with no income taxes.

So right now, given the advertised cash payout and the number of people playing, it does not make financial sense to purchase a Powerball ticket. That said, we’re not all that far off from a jackpot that might justify the purchase of a ticket. If the lump sum cash payout (not the annuity value) increases to $1.4 billion, and the number of tickets sold hovers around 500 million, the total expected payout of a $2 Powerball ticket will be $2.01, making the purchase of a ticket a rational decision in pure mathematical terms.

Expectation is an important mathematical concept on judging value. Lottery and other long shot scenarios are a important counterpoints to why simple expectation is a poor decision making tool. Higher expectation on a lottery ticket does explain behavior for heavier purchasing, but even when it is wildly positive it does not make those decisions rationally justified.

Of course not, the odds are still the odds.

[Implode]

Math

Well I stand corrected. I never split posts into account. I suppose that does give a negative EV!

And yeah, I go to a casino with my parents once in a while. I know every game has a negative EV and it's basically throwing money away if not for the fun of it. I play craps, and it's a fun experience if you with money you're okay with losing if you're in it for fun. And money you walk away with is a bonus. Sometimes you get lucky. The other night, I did and ended up making $1600.

Of course I'm probably still in the hole over all, but I've had a good time.

[cramx3]

Math

Well I stand corrected. I never split posts into account. I suppose that does give a negative EV!

And yeah, I go to a casino with my parents once in a while. I know every game has a negative EV and it's basically throwing money away if not for the fun of it. I play craps, and it's a fun experience if you with money you're okay with losing if you're in it for fun. And money you walk away with is a bonus. Sometimes you get lucky. The other night, I did and ended up making $1600.

Of course I'm probably still in the hole over all, but I've had a good time.

Craps is your best odds in a casino.  And for me, it's all about having fun.  Gambling a little can be a lot of fun, but I feel I always need to go with a # on hand of how much I am willing to lose.  Because after a certain point the fun is gone if you pass that point.

[Implode]

Yeah craps is great because it's one of the best games odds wise, but also because it's one of the most social. Blackjack has good odds too if you know how to play, but it's just so gosh darned boring.

Poker would be ideal to pay if I didn't suck.

(Also reread what I wrote there and I might have a few words. That post is rough. Sorry. )

[cramx3]

It's all good.  I like playing roulette, simple and fun watching the ball roll around, also can be really social (not like craps though).

[Implode]

I've never had luck at roulette. On the night I just mentioned, I started out a a roulette table and lost my buy-in in 8 spins, and was playing the table minimum. It was rough.

Craps has such a high variance so you can also lose quickly, but then turn around and win quickly too. It can get pretty exciting a lot of times. Someone hit a 5 point fire bet, and it was just as exciting if not more than when friends of mine hit back to back numbers on the wheel.

[ariich]

What I think is funny is that people line up to buy a ticket to win close to a billion dollars, but not for a couple hundred million. Is a coupe hundred million dollars not worth it?

Yeah, that is the amusing part. This is one of those psychological effect where people's perception of risk is modulated by the gain, even though it is totally unrelated.

Well, I wouldn't say totally unrelated given that risk (and by extension opportunity) is always a combination of both likelihood and impact. The likelihood may not change but the impact does, to utterly absurd levels.

[Chino]

These guys bought 35,000 tickets.

https://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2016/1/12/tampa_friends_hold_7.html

[Prog Snob]

This is really funny.

https://thelibertarianrepublic.com/powerballs-online-faq-is-an-unexpected-comedy-gold-mine/

[CrimsonSunrise]

we have 30 tix out there.  10 for me and my wife, 10 with 28 coworkers, and 10 with my crew of 10.   

[kaos2900]

I don't understand how that decreases the odd from 292 million to 8000. Wouldn't 35,000 tickets only account for 35,000 number combinations?

[TempusVox]

My ex-wife has that same mentality. I always explain to her that they aren't "free" rooms because she probably spent thousands to get that room.   

As the great comedian Gallagher once said in describing his wifes addiction to things On Sale, "Women are the only people who can save you money buying shit."

[Prog Snob]

My ex-wife has that same mentality. I always explain to her that they aren't "free" rooms because she probably spent thousands to get that room.   

As the great comedian Gallagher once said in describing his wifes addiction to things On Sale, "Women are the only people who can save you money buying shit."

  

It's like Pavlov's Dog... Women hear the word sale and suddenly a completely useless item becomes desirable.

[hefdaddy42]

I don't understand how that decreases the odd from 292 million to 8000. Wouldn't 35,000 tickets only account for 35,000 number combinations?

Original odds - 1 in 292 million.

New odds - 35,000 in 292 million.

Which equals 1 in 8,343, if my math is good.

[cramx3]

8. What are the chances that a wining ticket has already been sold?

Grief said 85.8 percent of all Powerball ticket combinations have been sold thus far.

https://gma.yahoo.com/13-powerball-facts-know-tonights-drawing-205429179--abc-news-personal-finance.html

Seems likely someone is going to win tonight if most of the combo's have been sold.

[splent]

I bought 3 tickets. I have as good a chance as anyone.


It's like finding the golden ticket.

I just hope I'm Charlie and not Veruca.

[Anguyen92]

I'm seeing some updates on my twitter that states that there is a winner in California and the ticket was sold in Chino Hills.  Dude, I live like bloody 5 min. away from there.  If only I know how to harness the power of going back in time.

[TioJorge]

DAMN YOU CHINOOOOOOOOO

[Dark Castle]

DAMN YOU CHINOOOOOOOOO

A quiet, but deserving choice for post of the year.

[lonestar]

I won four bucks.

[black_biff_stadler]

I won a glossy piece of paper and it only cost me $2

[lonestar]

I won a glossy piece of paper and it only cost me $2

Now write your phone number on it, give it to a hottie, and see if you win something.

[black_biff_stadler]

I have far more creative ways to get slapped across the face.

[Prog Snob]

I just walk up to a woman and tell her to slap me across the face because I'm about to make a comment about her yoga pants.

[gmillerdrake]

I won four bucks.

as did I....     errr....actually, that only puts me down $36 dollars over the last two drawings.....

[lonestar]

I won four bucks.

as did I....     errr....actually, that only puts me down $36 dollars over the last two drawings.....

I doubled my money 

(seriously, I bought one ticket hahaha)

[black_biff_stadler]

I just walk up to a woman and tell her to slap me across the face because I'm about to make a comment about her yoga pants.

You're alright, Johnny <3

[Prog Snob]