Poll

Avatar is #1 of all time in both the domestic and global box office. Will Star Wars VII top that?

Yes
61 (81.3%)
No
11 (14.7%)
Only domestically
3 (4%)

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Author Topic: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?  (Read 53467 times)

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Offline RuRoRul

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #560 on: May 02, 2019, 11:26:18 AM »
Probably just a way of specifying the first Avengers film rather than just saying The Avengers - it was titled Avengers Assemble in the UK.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #561 on: May 02, 2019, 11:51:22 AM »
Probably just a way of specifying the first Avengers film rather than just saying The Avengers - it was titled Avengers Assemble in the UK.

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Offline soupytwist

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #562 on: May 03, 2019, 02:26:39 AM »
Probably just a way of specifying the first Avengers film rather than just saying The Avengers - it was titled Avengers Assemble in the UK.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #563 on: May 03, 2019, 02:45:55 AM »
Yeah, in the UK we have a completely separate franchise called The Avengers that's decades old (and starred Diana Rigg aka Olenna Tyrell for a large chunk of it): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Avengers_(TV_series)

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Offline The Walrus

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #564 on: May 03, 2019, 07:40:33 AM »
After one week: 1.664 billion for Endgame. 6th highest grossing film of all time (up from 8th yesterday) and it's only 7 million from overtaking Jurassic World. Crazy.
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Offline soupytwist

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #565 on: May 04, 2019, 02:53:35 AM »
1,785b.   Not including Friday.

The drop off this weekend will be the key to what to expect next.  Worst case is the film is blown out already and it takes a 75% drop (300m) - Best case is it's stillpacking cinema's and drops 50% (600m).  As there is a slowdown starting to happen in the foreign market, it's gone from 3* US domestic to just above 2*  I think I'd predict somewhere  around the 400m - 450m mark, that'll finish the weekend with 2.2b +.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #566 on: May 05, 2019, 11:04:00 AM »
Well damn. 2nd weekend and it’s 2nd highest of all time (not adjusted for inflation) passing Titanic. Still don’t know if it’ll pass Avatar (though I’d be happy to be wrong) but damn it’s insane.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #567 on: May 05, 2019, 12:26:48 PM »
It's smashing every time-based record so far so it's definitely in with a shout.

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Offline The Walrus

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #568 on: May 05, 2019, 12:30:05 PM »
Absolutely insane. I was checking the box office totals every day because this thing is fascinating to watch. Didn't expect it to already pass Titanic, I thought maybe after the weekend sure, but holy crap. If this thing passes Avatar, that'll be incredible.

Also James Cameron now no longer has the top 2 spots. :P I know, Gone with the Wind and inflation, but still...
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Offline hefdaddy42

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #569 on: May 05, 2019, 12:56:36 PM »
Endgame passed 2 billion in 11 days. Fastest ever.

Old record was Avatar, which took 47 days to hit that mark.

At this point, I'm not sure why anyone would doubt that Endgame will pass Avatar's final number.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #570 on: May 05, 2019, 02:38:17 PM »
Yeah, not a matter of if but when as far as I'm concerned.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #571 on: May 13, 2019, 09:32:07 AM »
I know the numbers were REALLY frontloaded for Endgame with all the advance ticket sale and around the clock showings.  But I'm still surprised by how fast it has slowed down.  I got to see it for a second time on Friday, and the theater I went to was less than half full.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #572 on: May 13, 2019, 09:35:18 AM »
I know the numbers were REALLY frontloaded for Endgame with all the advance ticket sale and around the clock showings.  But I'm still surprised by how fast it has slowed down.  I got to see it for a second time on Friday, and the theater I went to was less than half full.

Yeah, I've been checking the box office totals on it just about every day and I'm surprised it still apparently hasn't broken 2.5 bill. I'm wondering now if it actually will beat Avatar.
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Offline bosk1

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #573 on: May 13, 2019, 09:44:03 AM »
It's just shy of 2.5 right now.  I think it easily gets there.  But I know many were predicting it would have gotten there already.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #574 on: May 13, 2019, 09:49:02 AM »
I was reading an article the other day that was talking about how the average ticket price when Titanic was in theaters was something like $4.71 per ticket. It's pretty crazy to think about how much money it made for the time.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #575 on: May 13, 2019, 09:57:25 AM »
I was reading an article the other day that was talking about how the average ticket price when Titanic was in theaters was something like $4.71 per ticket. It's pretty crazy to think about how much money it made for the time.
It was a huge achievement, but not really comparable, because we didn't have 80-inch 4K home cinemas in our houses (I mean, I don't now, but you know what I mean) and incredibly cheap streaming platforms to be able to watch almost infinite content whenever we want. Frankly to entice so many people to go to the cinema now with all the other options we have available is a huge achievement as well.

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Offline Lonk

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #576 on: May 13, 2019, 11:48:15 AM »
I was reading an article the other day that was talking about how the average ticket price when Titanic was in theaters was something like $4.71 per ticket. It's pretty crazy to think about how much money it made for the time.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Titanic's 2.1B is the adjusted profit.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #577 on: May 13, 2019, 11:51:49 AM »
I was reading an article the other day that was talking about how the average ticket price when Titanic was in theaters was something like $4.71 per ticket. It's pretty crazy to think about how much money it made for the time.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Titanic's 2.1B is the adjusted profit.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #578 on: May 13, 2019, 11:54:31 AM »
1   Gone with the Wind                   $3,728,000,000               1939
2   Avatar                                   $3,273,000,000               2009
3   Titanic                                   $3,099,000,000               1997
4   Star Wars                               $3,061,000,000               1977
5   The Sound of Music                $2,564,000,000               1965
6   E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial        $2,503,000,000               1982
7   Avengers: Endgame film            $2,489,371,188               2019
8   The Ten Commandments           $2,370,000,000               1956
9   Doctor Zhivago                           $2,246,000,000               1965
10   Star Wars: The Force Awakens   $2,215,000,000               2015
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Offline Lonk

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #579 on: May 13, 2019, 12:06:57 PM »
alrighty then, never mind.
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Offline Ninjabait

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #580 on: May 13, 2019, 02:28:23 PM »
I'm gonna make some vague predictions:

2.5bn: Day 19-20 (Tomorrow or Wednesday, I'd say tomorrow)
Passing Avatar: Day ~40
3.0bn: Day ~60
3.1bn: Day ~120
3.5bn: Unless we discover alien life, decide to invite them to see Endgame, and they love it, this isn't going to happen.
800m US: Day 26
850m US: Day ~40
900m US: Unlikely.

I think it's going to finish at just shy of 900m (let's say 896m) domestic and just over 3bn (3.06bn) global. For a more conservative estimate, I'm going to say 863m as the lowball for the domestic and 2.98bn as the lowball for the global. I don't doubt that it's going to crush Avatar and 850m domestic, the only questions are 900m domestic and #3 adjusted all time. I'd wager 3bn is also likely, as getting 500m globally in 120 days or so is fairly feasible.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 02:38:47 PM by Ninjabait »

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #581 on: May 23, 2019, 01:49:51 PM »
I don't know if it's going to beat Avatar. It's still 160m shy.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #582 on: May 23, 2019, 01:52:40 PM »
There's a chance it gets a bump right before Spidey, if it stays in theaters that long.

That's worked in the past. Black Panther and Captain Marvel both got decent bumps right before Infinity War and Endgame.

It probably still won't pass it, but it might get closer.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #583 on: May 23, 2019, 01:55:18 PM »
I don't know if it's going to beat Avatar. It's still 160m shy.

Meaning it would have to sustain $25M/week for the next 6 weeks.  Unlikely.  Though, I did my part and went and saw it a third time earlier this week.

It blew it's load, and gave it a good run.
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #584 on: May 23, 2019, 01:57:44 PM »
As I stated earlier, this and Avatar had VERY different schedules.

I checked out the movies released in the 2-3 months after Avatar's release. It had maybe 1-2 movies of competition in that time.

Endgame has TONS of summer competition. It never stood a chance of having the kind of long haul that Avatar did.
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Offline The Walrus

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #585 on: May 23, 2019, 02:00:41 PM »
Yeah, and even if it doesn't beat it, it doesn't matter. The records it set are insane. I'm still gobsmacked at how it almost doubled Infinity War's weekend haul record, at over 1.220 billion. And Infinity War smashed the record itself. Looking at the Wikipedia entry for the records it set says it all. Hell I bet it'll still pull in decent money even with the competition, just not enough to pass Avatar.

Dark Phoenix is coming out very soon, and I looked at the total gross of X-Men Apocalypse for comparison. Didn't even break 600 million. Endgame doubled that in its first weekend, lawl.
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Offline Ninjabait

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #586 on: May 23, 2019, 02:20:32 PM »
There's a chance it gets a bump right before Spidey, if it stays in theaters that long.

That's worked in the past. Black Panther and Captain Marvel both got decent bumps right before Infinity War and Endgame.

It probably still won't pass it, but it might get closer.

Infinity War was in theaters for 140 days/20 weeks I think. Endgame has been only been around for 4 so far. They both got most of their run from the first three weeks, but that's normal for a summer movie afaik. $160m in 16 weeks seems fairly manageable. Just needs to make about ~$10m a week on average, and I think the next two-three weeks will still have it earning that and more on the weekends alone. It made about $70m globally last weekend.

Offline RuRoRul

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #587 on: May 23, 2019, 03:10:59 PM »
A funny thing I saw some speculation about in early articles, and since it looks like Endgame being neck and neck just under or over Avatar seems possible now: there's a question of whether Disney would definitely want Endgame to overtake Avatar, due to the fact it is now going to be distribution of Avatar sequels. I'm not talking some conspiracy theory about them not wanting Endgame to be successful - money is money and if it made $2.8bn I'm sure Disney would be happy. But in a scenario where Endgame ends just short of Avatar, there's the option of the studio to do something like an award season reissue with the aim of getting an extra amount to put it over the edge. And in that case maybe Disney wouldn't be motivated to make any extra push for it to be the highest grossing movie, since when it comes to marketing the Avatar sequels being the sequel to the "Biggest Movie Ever" is one of the franchises biggest selling points. Endgame making basically as much as Avatar but not knocking it off that perch and muddying the waters for marketing might be the best outcome for Disney.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #589 on: June 07, 2019, 03:10:57 PM »
Still $67 million away. Who knows if it'll catch it. Aquaman is apparently still playing in theaters 6 months after release so you never know...
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #590 on: June 07, 2019, 03:18:24 PM »
Still $67 million away. Who knows if it'll catch it. Aquaman is apparently still playing in theaters 6 months after release so you never know...

Doubt it.

Marvel could potentially do a re-release within the year for an Oscar push, but I dunno.

I looked up how much Avatar's re-release added to the total, and it's only 10 million dollars.
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Offline jammindude

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #591 on: June 07, 2019, 05:49:07 PM »
Something just occurred to me.   

Let's just say hypothetically that Endgame gets a re-release and another big "push" that just barely gets it over Avatar. 

I would be willing to bet nearly anything that *IF* that happened......Cameron would push to re-release Avatar in Dec 2020, one year before the release of the sequel.   Just to, you know, "refresh everyone's memory" before the sequels come out 11 years later. 

Come to think of it, that might not be a bad move anyway.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #592 on: June 12, 2019, 10:36:07 AM »
Something just occurred to me.   

Let's just say hypothetically that Endgame gets a re-release and another big "push" that just barely gets it over Avatar. 

I would be willing to bet nearly anything that *IF* that happened......Cameron would push to re-release Avatar in Dec 2020, one year before the release of the sequel.   Just to, you know, "refresh everyone's memory" before the sequels come out 11 years later. 

Come to think of it, that might not be a bad move anyway.

I fully expect that regardless of whether End Game does or not. Avatar's last re-release had 9 minutes of additional footage, and there's still a whole bunch more that went unused and deserved to be in the film. It'd be awesome if we got even more of that.

Offline Chino

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #593 on: June 19, 2019, 10:04:51 AM »
https://mcucosmic.com/2019/06/19/avengers-endgame-being-re-released-next-week-with-new-footage/



Quote
“There will be a version going into theaters… w/a few new things… If you stay & watch the movie, after the credits, there’ll be a deleted scene, a little tribute, & a few surprises”
 

A re-release for no new footage, just some crap after the credits?

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #594 on: June 19, 2019, 10:26:45 AM »
I saw some speculation that it might be some of the stuff we will see in the Blu-ray extras.

I think that's one possiblity. At this point they just want to beat avatar by the looks of it.
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