This weekend I was talking with some buddies of mine about how, even in basketball, if your teammates suck, your team probably isn't going very far. Another way to look at it, I thought, was that if your teammates don't suck, you can get away with a bad game or two.
As I'm exhausted from a weekend of working, I decided to plop down in front of my computer and waste some time actually researching my theory using statistics. I thought I'd share what I found as it was pretty interesting.
I logged onto Basketball Reference and used their Game Score (GS) metric to identify Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, and LeBron's really bad playoff games, which I arbitrarily decided was a GS of 10 or below. Here are the results:
Shaq: 36 games, 17 wins
Duncan: 35 games, 17 wins
Kobe: 39 games, 15 wins
LeBron: 8 games, 0 wins
These results were pretty eye-opening. Based on GS alone, LeBron was by far and away the least likely of the bunch to have a bad game. The other three guys were about as likely as the next to play a stinker.
Whereas Shaq, Duncan, and Kobe were able to escape bad games with wins about half the time, LeBron's team has not once come out on top on occasions where he crapped the bed. Imagine how differently their careers might be perceived if, say, the Lakers weren't good enough to overcome Kobe's 6/24 performance in Game 7 of the 2010 Finals or if the Heat were able to emerge victorious despite LeBron's 8 point Game 4 in the 2011 Finals.
Obviously these numbers aren't perfect. Like any box score-based stat, Game Score misses out on a lot. For example, even when Duncan posted bad numbers, he probably made up for it by being the best defensive player on the floor. Also, there are times where it's unreasonable to expect a supporting cast to lift up their best player, such as... well... LeBron's Game 4 in 2011 (that was pretty bad).
Despite all this, I do think these numbers have some meaning, and as a guy who is very weary of the "rings equal greatness" cliche, they add a little more to my skepticism.