NFL thread 2014 v. Frankford Yellow Jackets Lay the Pipe on the Dayton Triangles

[Destiny Of Chaos]

[El Barto]

Excellent analysis of how the whole thing could have unfolded explaining the pass on second and Belichick's non-time out.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/02/02/bill-belichick-made-a-sneaky-smart-decision-that-might-have-contributed-to-fateful-play-call-by-pete-carroll/

All of it seems quite plausible and is exactly the sort of coaching you'd expect from one of the best ever.

[Cool Chris]

but I don't hear people complaining about what pass they called.

Really? I've been hearing that all day. 

[bosk1]

Yeah, I have as well.  But still, those who are complaining about that still miss out on at least two crucial facts:  (1) that very pass play is a VERY high percentage play for Seattle; and (2) the play was well-executed and ended in disaster for Seattle ONLY because Butler made an amazing play.

[Tom Bombadil]

Yeah, I have as well.  But still, those who are complaining about that still miss out on at least two crucial facts:  (1) that very pass play is a VERY high percentage play for Seattle; and (2) the play was well-executed and ended in disaster for Seattle ONLY because Butler made an amazing play.

Agreed. If you see a shot of the play .5 seconds after the snap, it looks like an automatic touchdown. Butler just made such a good break on it.

[El Barto]

edit: Nope, had that wrong.

[Cool Chris]

(2) the play was well-executed and ended in disaster for Seattle ONLY because Butler made an amazing play.

Not entirely. The slant wasn't sold as well as it could have, and the pass was leading Lockette too much, and Kearse(?) needed a better push off the line. Or something like that I have been reading.

[Skeever]

All I'll say is the slant works amazing in the redzone in Madden.

[cramx3]

I personally would have done a fade if you were going to pass.  Kills a little more clock and doesn't have you throwing the ball in the middle of the field where it is more likely to be intercepted.  Granted, I am a Monday (Tuesday) morning QB.

[Destiny Of Chaos]

I've heard grumblings that the powers that be are obsessed with making Russell Wilson the face of the franchise, to the point where there is some dissension in the locker room (which was the cause of the Percy Harvin trade).

Anywho, I heard a beat writer being interviewed on.... sports radio (yeah I know) suggest that they called the pass so that Wilson could win the game, and have the glory, rather than Lynch.

Not saying I'm buying it... but it is an interesting line of thought.

[gmillerdrake]

I've heard grumblings that the powers that be are obsessed with making Russell Wilson the face of the franchise, to the point where there is some dissension in the locker room (which was the cause of the Percy Harvin trade).

Anywho, I heard a beat writer being interviewed on.... sports radio (yeah I know) suggest that they called the pass so that Wilson could win the game, and have the glory, rather than Lynch.

Not saying I'm buying it... but it is an interesting line of thought.

Not buying it. They handed the ball off to Lynch 5 yards out fully expecting him to score....which he near did (no ones talking about that tackle that stopped him)....this type of 'story' is just a way to try an explain Seattle not capitolizing on the opportunity to win the game. It's as if it's a foregone conclusion Lynch would have scored anyway. any number of things could have happened, fumble....stopped in the backfield for a loss....zero gain.....holding penalty.....so on and so on.
  Butler made a big play.....Seattle folk who are still crying about not winning need to get over it, that's why games are played and plays are ran....you have to execute.

[El Barto]

They called the pass because it was the only way to get three attempts rather than 2. A third play had to be a pass (TD or stop the clock), and 2nd down was the logical time to do it. Problem was that NE was expecting it for those reasons.

Oh, and there were dissension rumors months ago about that very thing. Like I said, between lockerroom discord with players and players, players and ownership, as well as players and coaches now, I'd expect a very similar meltdown as we saw with SF coming up. That's of course assuming that they even decide to hang on to Marshawn.

[King Postwhore]

I don't buy it at all.

The other reason they threw was they mismanaged the clock.    They were not ready to get a play in and it took too long.  You're in a 2 minute drill and you don't have the play ready?

[gmillerdrake]

The other reason they threw was they mismanaged the clock.    They were not ready to get a play in and it took too long.  You're in a 2 minute drill and you don't have the play ready?

They were still in shock from that extremely lucky catch....

[King Postwhore]

In N.E. we were all screaming in unison, "Not This Again!"

[gmillerdrake]

In N.E. we were all screaming in unison, "Not This Again!"

Listen, I had/have no dog in the hunt. I dislike/Like both teams equally because they both have players I depsise and players I like. But when that catch happened I was convinced that Tom Brady had some sort of curse placed on him by Bridget Monahan. It was like.....how many times can that happen to him/them? 

And, like the rest of the population and players watching I was certain the Seahawks were going to punch it in and that was that. It's just so true that on any given play anything can happen....it's unreal....it happened twice in the matter of three plays.

[Cool Chris]

Anywho, I heard a beat writer being interviewed on.... sports radio (yeah I know) suggest that they called the pass so that Wilson could win the game, and have the glory, rather than Lynch.

Been hearing those rumblings too, even on Jim Rome. He loves conspiracies, but even he doesn't buy this one. I can't imagine Wilson getting the MVP award if they win. He had a mediocre day. Matthews should have been the one to get it. It would have been a better story anyway.

[El Barto]

I don't buy it at all.

What don't you buy, my version??? Carroll said several times after the game they were going to use all four downs. When Belichick let the clock bleed out 40 seconds Carroll now longer had time to run the ball 3 more times. He could either run three plays with one of them being a pass, or two plays both runs. Odds favor 3 attempts more than 2.

[RoeDent]

"Super Bowl L" should be held in Wales. Super Bowll.

PS. If you don't get this, learn some Welsh.

[El Barto]

"Super Bowl L" should be held in Wales. Super Bowll.

PS. If you don't get this, learn some Welsh.

Naw, the Brits should get 54 so it'll be Super Bowlix.

[Podaar]

"Super Bowl L" should be held in Wales. Super Bowll.

PS. If you don't get this, learn some Welsh.

Naw, the Brits should get 54 so it'll be Super Bowlix.

Uuuuh...that's 59, Barto. 54 would be Super BowLIV. 

[King Postwhore]

I don't buy it at all.

What don't you buy, my version??? Carroll said several times after the game they were going to use all four downs. When Belichick let the clock bleed out 40 seconds Carroll now longer had time to run the ball 3 more times. He could either run three plays with one of them being a pass, or two plays both runs. Odds favor 3 attempts more than 2.

Sorry. I was responding to DOC.

[King Postwhore]

[Syzzle]

I was thinking about buying that hat, but I'm not really much of a hat person so I settled on the shirt instead

[El Barto]

"Super Bowl L" should be held in Wales. Super Bowll.

PS. If you don't get this, learn some Welsh.

Naw, the Brits should get 54 so it'll be Super Bowlix.

Uuuuh...that's 59, Barto. 54 would be Super BowLIV. 

Huh. I must have missed that day in high school Imagine that.

I was thinking about buying that hat, but I'm not really much of a hat person so I settled on the shirt instead

What I want is the hoodie, but they're damned proud of those. I'm hoping sometime around June or so they'll mark them way down.

[KevShmev]

I've heard grumblings that the powers that be are obsessed with making Russell Wilson the face of the franchise, to the point where there is some dissension in the locker room (which was the cause of the Percy Harvin trade).

Anywho, I heard a beat writer being interviewed on.... sports radio (yeah I know) suggest that they called the pass so that Wilson could win the game, and have the glory, rather than Lynch.

Not saying I'm buying it... but it is an interesting line of thought.

I heard this theory yesterday, and I have to admit that it is one of the dumbest things I've heard in quite some time.

[rumborak]

"Super Bowl L" should be held in Wales. Super Bowll.

PS. If you don't get this, learn some Welsh.

That would be awesome. "Welcome to Super.. Super.... SuperBowlch!!!"

[TAC]

Yeah, I have as well.  But still, those who are complaining about that still miss out on at least two crucial facts:  (1) that very pass play is a VERY high percentage play for Seattle; and (2) the play was well-executed and ended in disaster for Seattle ONLY because Butler made an amazing play.

This is how I feel.

[TAC]

(2) the play was well-executed and ended in disaster for Seattle ONLY because Butler made an amazing play.

Not entirely. The slant wasn't sold as well as it could have, and the pass was leading Lockette too much, and Kearse(?) needed a better push off the line. Or something like that I have been reading.

On Belichick's weekly radio interview, he laid a lot of credit on the play on Browner for stopping that push.

[Dr. DTVT]

This is the only response needed for the "Don't let Lynch score the TD" conspiracy:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0

[dparrott]

The Hawks did have a play before the pass, but the way NE's D lined up, they thought better of it.  Or so they say...

[Dublagent66]

I don't buy it at all.

What don't you buy, my version??? Carroll said several times after the game they were going to use all four downs. When Belichick let the clock bleed out 40 seconds Carroll now longer had time to run the ball 3 more times. He could either run three plays with one of them being a pass, or two plays both runs. Odds favor 3 attempts more than 2.

There was no need to use 3 downs.  Especially a team like Seattle.  20 secs.  2nd and goal.  Beast mode.  Touchdown.  Game over.  Even if they didn't score on 2nd down, still plenty of time to get another snap or use the timeout to strategize the next play.  It really should've only taken a max of 2 downs to get that score and they never gave themselves a chance.

More seriously though, as good a coach as Carroll is, he's gonna be known for probably the biggest all time bonehead play call in SB history. 

Which is really dumb because his rationale for calling that play was actually pretty sound.  And I read that if you compare the success rate of the play they called vs. the success rate of Lynch from 1 yard out, the success rate weighed far in favor of the pass play.  For whatever reason, despite Lynch's beastly numbers, his success rate from the 1 yard line is decidedly pedestrian (assuming that article was correct).  But even aside from that, the Pats run D was doing a serviceable job, and it isn't a stretch to assume that if they stacked the box, they might have gotten some stops.  I don't think it hurts to take a shot at a pass and stop the clock, knowing you will likely still have two chances at a run play (2 chances because they still had a timeout). 

Yeah, I think in most other less critical situations, the percentages might be sound, but in this case, I don't buy into it.  The statistical percentages really don't apply here because of the extreme situation.  It's the end of the SB, down by 4 and the TD is a must.  Slant plays are designed more for 3rd and 5 situations with a more spread out defense.  On the 1 yard line, it's just too crowded.  Not only that, but the pass needed to be right in the numbers and not leading the receiver.  If incomplete, then the clock stops and you go to the run anyway on 3rd and goal.  The pass is just too risky there as the Hawks found out.

[Dark Castle]

If they just HAD to go with a pass, surely there were better options than a fucking slant right?

Agreed completely with Dub above.

[El Barto]

I don't buy it at all.

What don't you buy, my version??? Carroll said several times after the game they were going to use all four downs. When Belichick let the clock bleed out 40 seconds Carroll now longer had time to run the ball 3 more times. He could either run three plays with one of them being a pass, or two plays both runs. Odds favor 3 attempts more than 2.

There was no need to use 3 downs.  Especially a team like Seattle.  20 secs.  2nd and goal.  Beast mode.  Touchdown.  Game over.  Even if they didn't score on 2nd down, still plenty of time to get another snap or use the timeout to strategize the next play.  It really should've only taken a max of 2 downs to get that score and they never gave themselves a chance.

Perhaps, perhaps not, but that doesn't mean you waste one of those downs. Like I said, three chances are always better than two.

Also, lets keep in mind the pressure both coaches were under when making these decisions. Carroll was in a freaking pressure cooker at that point with a clock ticking down in his face. While we can say now in hindsight that it was the bad call, it was at the time very understandable decision and reasonable under the circumstances.

Lastly, it's interesting that we still maintain the attitude that we need somebody to burn. Carroll and his OC are the goats here. If they'd run the ball and scored everybody would be blasting Belichick for not calling that timeout. Seems like finding somebody to bag on is what the game has come down to nowadays.

[King Postwhore]

A few Pats players have hinted in interviews that Bill didn't call a time out seeing the Seahawks wasting time figuring out a play to call.