Myspace to Facebook - It Can All Slip Away

[Implode]

I have mixed feelings about addblock. It must be really nice, but if everyone used addblock, then companies would just find ways to get around it. And also, it's not YouTube's fault that there are commercials. The presence of advertisements is completely up to the uploader. Also wouldn't you want companies like Livestream and YouTube to get money? They are great services that I hope never go out of business. (It's a little less risky with YouTube being owned by Google and all, but still) It's not like there are 5+ minutes of commercials every 15 minutes like on cable.

[robwebster]

I reinstalled adblock on Chrome and it seems to be doing a good job.

*edit*

totally resolved.

I would still scan the hell out of that computer. Treating the symptoms makes your life easier in the short term, but it's no substitute for a cure. Unless that's what you did between posting and the edit?

[black_biff_stadler]

It's not like there are 5+ minutes of commercials every 15 minutes like on cable.

Cable and major network television generally have a 3:1 ratio of programming to commercials so it's more like 3 or 3 1/2 minutes tops per 15 minutes. Youtube on the other hand sometimes has it as bad as a 30-second, unskippable ad on clips that aren't even 30 seconds themselves. It ain't common but it's far from rare since I come across that at least once every couple days.

[Chino]

I reinstalled adblock on Chrome and it seems to be doing a good job.

*edit*

totally resolved.

I would still scan the hell out of that computer. Treating the symptoms makes your life easier in the short term, but it's no substitute for a cure. Unless that's what you did between posting and the edit?

What would you suggest?

[Implode]

Youtube on the other hand sometimes has it as bad as a 30-second, unskippable ad on clips that aren't even 30 seconds themselves. It ain't common but it's far from rare since I come across that at least once every couple days.

I've never seen a 30 second unskippable clip on YouTube. That's weird.

[kirksnosehair]

The desktop PC will be dead in 10 years.

Couldn't disagree more. The PC gaming market is too big to let desktops die.

In 10 years you won't need a PC to play a game.  You'll play all of those games on a tablet, connected to a dock, with a 48" LED monitor.  That's why I said they need time to get more powerful.  I just showed you full-blown Windows 7 Professional on a tablet.  When the horsepower is there, why in the world would anyone want to be chained to a desktop PC when they could bring their games everywhere in the palm of their hands?

[Chino]

Youtube on the other hand sometimes has it as bad as a 30-second, unskippable ad on clips that aren't even 30 seconds themselves. It ain't common but it's far from rare since I come across that at least once every couple days.

I've never seen a 30 second unskippable clip on YouTube. That's weird.

I see them all the time.

[Chino]

The desktop PC will be dead in 10 years.

Couldn't disagree more. The PC gaming market is too big to let desktops die.

In 10 years you won't need a PC to play a game.  You'll play all of those games on a tablet, connected to a dock, with a 48" LED monitor.  That's why I said they need time to get more powerful.  I just showed you full-blown Windows 7 Professional on a tablet.  When the horsepower is there, why in the world would anyone want to be chained to a desktop PC when they could bring their games everywhere in the palm of their hands?

I agree with all of this, but there is always the problem of being able to upgrade your device to the latest specs. Tablets, at least the ones we have today, do not allow this.

[black_biff_stadler]

Youtube on the other hand sometimes has it as bad as a 30-second, unskippable ad on clips that aren't even 30 seconds themselves. It ain't common but it's far from rare since I come across that at least once every couple days.

I've never seen a 30 second unskippable clip on YouTube. That's weird.

When they occur, it's usually either on a longer (like 10+ minute) clip or if you're watching multiple clips in a row in a playlist. But yeah, this nonsense of coming up on clips that aren't even a minute long is absurd.

[kirksnosehair]

The desktop PC will be dead in 10 years.

Couldn't disagree more. The PC gaming market is too big to let desktops die.

In 10 years you won't need a PC to play a game.  You'll play all of those games on a tablet, connected to a dock, with a 48" LED monitor.  That's why I said they need time to get more powerful.  I just showed you full-blown Windows 7 Professional on a tablet.  When the horsepower is there, why in the world would anyone want to be chained to a desktop PC when they could bring their games everywhere in the palm of their hands?

I agree with all of this, but there is always the problem of being able to upgrade your device to the latest specs. Tablets, at least the ones we have today, do not allow this.

Upgrade?      How do you upgrade your iPhone?  You get a new one when it comes out!  That's what drives the market.   Everything is moving to the cloud.  And with it, the PC is dying a long, slow death.  Or I should say, more specifically, the DESKTOP is dying.  Apple, as usual, has been pretty far ahead of this curve.   I got to 2 or 3 technology seminars every month and everyone in the business says the same thing.  Convergence is continuing to push everything towards hand-held devices (phones/tablets) and the cloud (the internet). 


You have an iPad, right?  Download that OnLive app and check it out.  There's a free version.  Once you see it for yourself and use it you really start to understand the possibilities. 

[Chino]

The desktop PC will be dead in 10 years.

Couldn't disagree more. The PC gaming market is too big to let desktops die.

In 10 years you won't need a PC to play a game.  You'll play all of those games on a tablet, connected to a dock, with a 48" LED monitor.  That's why I said they need time to get more powerful.  I just showed you full-blown Windows 7 Professional on a tablet.  When the horsepower is there, why in the world would anyone want to be chained to a desktop PC when they could bring their games everywhere in the palm of their hands?

I agree with all of this, but there is always the problem of being able to upgrade your device to the latest specs. Tablets, at least the ones we have today, do not allow this.

Upgrade?      How do you upgrade your iPhone?  You get a new one when it comes out!  That's what drives the market.   Everything is moving to the cloud.  And with it, the PC is dying a long, slow death.  Or I should say, more specifically, the DESKTOP is dying.  Apple, as usual, has been pretty far ahead of this curve.   I got to 2 or 3 technology seminars every month and everyone in the business says the same thing.  Convergence is continuing to push everything towards hand-held devices (phones/tablets) and the cloud (the internet). 


You have an iPad, right?  Download that OnLive app and check it out.  There's a free version.  Once you see it for yourself and use it you really start to understand the possibilities.

I understand that, and again, I agree. But all the PC gamers I know absolutely hate the idea of having a fixed machine. They don't want to upgrade all at once. A company needs to make a gaming specific tablet. Something with globs of power with a removable back. It needs to have graphics chips and components that can be easily swapped. I think only then CPU gamers will begin to consider it.

I'd love to game on my iPad, but I can't play games without tactical feedback. I still don't get why Apple (who markets it as a gaming device) doesn't realease a wireless game controller for it. I would gladly dish $30.00+ on an app if I could use an actual controller.. without jailbreaking.

[kirksnosehair]

Remember, I'm talking 10 years from now, not next week.  Think about how much things have evolved in the last 10 years.

[snapple]

Remember, I'm talking 10 years from now, not next week.  Think about how much things have evolved in the last 10 years.

I was going to use the same line of logic to caution your thinking 

[kirksnosehair]

Read and learn, my young Padawans 

[kirksnosehair]

Convergence....it's coming. 

[Implode]

In the future, the internet will be fast and ubiquitous enough that no one will need their own computers for video games. All processes will be done server side.

[Orbert]

I don't see how PCs can completely go away in favor of tablets.  What about IT?  I currently run processes on three towers and a laptop.  Is a tablet going to have the horsepower to replace three tower PCs?

[Chino]

Is a tablet going to have the horsepower to replace three tower PCs?

Is your phone more powerful than all the computers responsible for the moon landing?

[Implode]

Like I said in my post.

Or maybe...Every household will have one server rack, and everyone will have their own tablet device that'll connect to that.

[Orbert]

Is a tablet going to have the horsepower to replace three tower PCs?

Is your phone more powerful than all the computers responsible for the moon landing?

No.

[snapple]

Read and learn, my young Padawans 

I never want keyboard/mouse to be taken away from me.

[kirksnosehair]

Is a tablet going to have the horsepower to replace three tower PCs?

Is your phone more powerful than all the computers responsible for the moon landing?

No.

um, actually, with respect, you're wrong.


The computers that landed us on the moon are like.....well, it took several ROOMS full of computers to handle the moon landing.  You can now fit equivalent processing power AND THEN SOME in an iPhone.

[kirksnosehair]

Here, check this out
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer


That was the computer responsible for Guidance.  There were additional units to handle life support, propulsion and various scientific endeavors that were critical to the data gathered while on the moon. 


Here, dig this:
https://curiosity.discovery.com/question/modern-computers-apollo-missions

[Implode]

I'd wager that Orbert knows this, and is just stating that he doesn't have a smart phone. 

[Perpetual Change]

People always overestimate how fast technology is moving. It moves fast, yes, but not THAT fast. Two anecdotes:

Two years ago NY Times said in an editorial that it was time to get rid of your Desktop PC and digital camera. Well, guess what? I still use both of them, and if need be, I'd buy one again feeling comfortably confident that my desktop PC would remain to be useful for at least 4-5 more years.

Same goes with my e-reader. 2-3 years ago, everyone was telling me to blow $500 on an ipad instead of $79 on a kindle, because the tablets were supposed to replace and make obsolete e-readers anyway. Well, guess what? I used by my e-reader happily for 2 years, and only recently upgraded to a $200 tablet. Meanwhile, everyone going around saying that "the future is here" is on their second or third $500 ipad in 3 years.

So, the moral of the story is this: Yes, the future is coming. But your current technology is likely still good now, even if it's a few years old, and it will remain to be good for a few more years. Anyone who tells you not to buy or build a PC now because of what the future will bring is either anticipating way too big and fast of a changed, or brainwashed by some tablet marketing scheme.

[Orbert]

Is a tablet going to have the horsepower to replace three tower PCs?

Is your phone more powerful than all the computers responsible for the moon landing?

No.

um, actually, with respect, you're wrong.


The computers that landed us on the moon are like.....well, it took several ROOMS full of computers to handle the moon landing.  You can now fit equivalent processing power AND THEN SOME in an iPhone.

I'd wager that Orbert knows this, and is just stating that he doesn't have a smart phone. 

Correct.  I have a regular phone.  I can send text.  Maybe there's more power in there than what sent the guys to the moon, I don't know.

[Implode]

Relevant:

[jingle.boy]

I'm totally with kirksnosehair on this.  We don't know what we don't know.  Innovations will come that we can't even conceive right now.  The iPhone and iPad didn't even exist in blueprints 10 years ago, and now that smart/handheld technology dominates the consumer space.  15 years ago, Apple was on the verge of going bust and survived only with a $150M investment from Microsoft.  Imagine if that hadn't happened... no iPod/Tunes/Phone/Pad etc...  Sure someone probably would've filled that space somehow with something, but how different would this world be without those specific innovations?

Every 800 pound gorilla can fall.  That includes the PC - and all it's components.  Intel is hurting .... Apple switching to ARM, decline of desktops/laptops, commoditization of the server market, etc...

As for the PC, at best it will be a niche market in a few spots... gaming possibly one of them.  and if it's only appeal is for gaming, then it's no longer a PC - it's the evolution of the gaming console.

I go back to the Encyclopedia Britannica example I've used in the past.  150+ year monopoly... lost in less than 2 years, and vanished in less than 10.

[kirksnosehair]

As for the PC, at best it will be a niche market in a few spots... gaming possibly one of them.  and if it's only appeal is for gaming, then it's no longer a PC - it's the evolution of the gaming console.

It could be around as a niche product for a long time, I think it depends on the demand, which really depends on how successful the tablet/hand-held/cloud concept ends up being.  Everything I'm seeing in the market right now and at the tech conferences I am attending each month very strongly suggest that the traditional desktop PC will be out of the business space sooner than a lot of people think.  Imagine the convenience of being able to take your primary computing device -and all of your data- with you wherever you go.  It's a powerful concept and in many ways it's already here.  We have Dropbox, Skydrive and Windows 7 Pro with Office 2010 Pro right on the iPad already.  Now, granted, the consumer/prosumer/enthusiast/gamer sector......could evolve a bit differently.  But, once they can create a hand-held device/dock combination that can emulate it effectively (and they're already very close to that now) and it has the requisite power to provide a robust gaming experience, all bets are off.  And the tipping point for those "gamers-who-like-to-tinker-and-constantly-upgrade-their-gaming-PCs" will be reached when either of two things happen:  1.) it becomes prohibitively expensive to maintain a gaming PC due to dwindling supply of components in the market -and/or- 2.) The tablet/hand-held/cloud device becomes capable of delivering a superior gaming experience.

[jingle.boy]

The other tipping point will be the networks - speed, affordability and coverage.  When you can watch a High Def movie or play a game (anywhere) as fast over the interwebz as you can on a local hard drive with no lag ... why the need for anything but (what we fogey's used to call) a dumb terminal.

[kirksnosehair]

Internet connection speeds are the bottleneck right now for these cloud services really being able to deliver rich application experiences in real time.   You just can't deliver enough FPS of video over a 30mbps pipe.  I'd say Gigabit on the WAN will be the tipping point.    That's still at least 5 years away.


Edit:  Yeah, the dumb terminal metaphor is actually spot on when it comes to the concept of the cloud-delivered games and stuff     Only I think some of the processing will be done locally on the device.  So instead of "dumb" terminal, it might be "eh, not that bright" terminal 

[Orbert]

Everything I'm seeing in the market right now and at the tech conferences I am attending each month very strongly suggest that the traditional desktop PC will be out of the business space sooner than a lot of people think.

I guess I'm just being thick here, but I just don't see it.  Sure, there are companies out there developing amazingly fast, small, computing devices that can replace Teradata applicances with cell phones.  But what about the cost?  Are there any major companies right now that are financially stable enough to completely replace all the desktop and tower PCs in their company with the latest thing, which by the way will not exactly be cheap?

Five years ago, I had pretty much the same setup I have now except I had a 17" CRT and not a 20" flat screen.  Ten years ago I had a single tower instead of two.  15 years ago, my tower was a Pentium II or III or something.  The department next door was still using amber screens, which I hadn't even seen since the 80's.

But ten years from now, all PCs will be replaced by tablets?  And they'll be so cheap that everyone will be doing it?

[snapple]

If desktops are cheaper to produce, they'll stick around.

[jingle.boy]

If desktops are cheaper to produce, they'll stick around.

Not if there isn't any demand for them.  Smartphones/tablets are already out-shipping PCs (desktops and laptops) globally.  That trend is not likely to be reversed.

[Orbert]

I think the word is "currently", not "already".

The vast majority of homes who are ever going to have a PC already have one.  They'll upgrade it or add another one, but they won't do it as quickly as they'll upgrade their cell phone (which they're basically required to do every two years), and grabbing a tablet is a handy/trendy enough gadget that they'll buy one.  But it's not like they're buying it instead of a new PC.  They now have both.