Myspace to Facebook - It Can All Slip Away

[ReaPsTA]

I'm not saying anything new here, but one of the most frustrating aspects of big businesses is their collective disregard for the customer experience.  The argument always comes back to "Well, if you're still using our product, then I guess we can keep doing this."  The argument isn't entirely wrong, but it's short sighted.

Remember when Myspace was the biggest thing on the internet?  Now where are they?  The site became notorious for the inordinate amount of pages required to do anything (in order to drive up ad impressions) and the general sloppiness of its layout and user experience.  Two of the biggest reasons Facebook became popular were the cleaner interface and lack of users under 18.

Now look where Facebook is.  More and more, I'm starting to see business-people publicly call out Facebook advertising for its inability to be economically viable.  Investors are rightly nervous.  The interface is getting sloppier.  People are complaining constantly about some issue related to the privacy and/or functionality of the site.

Remember what happened last time?

It's often said that big businesses do scummy things because they work.  Except that these business tactics actually minimize your companies potential for success and maximize your company's potential to be pushed out of the market by a better service.  Assuming Zappos keeps doing what it does, they'll be able to sell shoes until the heat death of the universe.  I'll be truly amazed if Facebook is a mainstay of our culture 10 years from now.

[Ultimetalhead]

I'm just curious as to what's going to replace Facebook. Twitter doesn't do nearly enough to be a suitable substitute, and I can't think of any other social networking site that has its shit together as well as Facebook. It seems like something tries to come up every year or so to knock it out, but it's just not going anywhere yet.

[Cedar redaC]

Google+ for sure....


Somebody's on that right?

[black_biff_stadler]

[theliloutkast]

From what I've seen of late is that Facebook revolves around the fan pages at this point.

[Sigz]

I'll be truly amazed if Facebook is a mainstay of our culture 10 years from now.

Though I don't necessarily disagree, I think it's important to note that Facebook is a far larger beast than Myspace ever was, and as a result it would take a lot more than a shoddy interface to kill Facebook.

[LieLowTheWantedMan]

Yeah. Facebook has found a much larger crowd than MySpace could've ever hoped.

[cramx3]

This is why I would never buy stock in facebook.  I pretty much agree with everything the OP stated.  Facebook isn't like a real product, thier value is in how many people use it.  I think twitter has become bigger than facebook and eventually something will be bigger than twitter.  I feel like I only use facebook because everyone I know uses it... well once people start using something else, then there goes facebook.  To me, it doesn't have lasting value. 

[LieLowTheWantedMan]

This is why I would never buy stock in facebook.  I pretty much agree with everything the OP stated.  Facebook isn't like a real product, thier value is in how many people use it.  I think twitter has become bigger than facebook and eventually something will be bigger than twitter.  I feel like I only use facebook because everyone I know uses it... well once people start using something else, then there goes facebook.  To me, it doesn't have lasting value.

Not sure how accurate this is... I only know like a couple people with Twitter accounts and literally the only people I know without Facebook accounts are internet-hating family members. Could be wrong though.

[theseoafs]

think twitter has become bigger than facebook

Nah, that's not true.  Facebook has about twice as many members.

[Chino]

Facebook is the Walmart of Social Networking sites.

[cramx3]

think twitter has become bigger than facebook

Nah, that's not true.  Facebook has about twice as many members.

I didn't mean that in who has more users. All you hear on TV these days is so and so tweeted this and tweet us atthis nd tweet us and we may air your tweet. You never hear so and so posted on Facebook... I even see people posting on Facebook with hash tags.

[Gadough]

I'm just curious as to what's going to replace Facebook. Twitter doesn't do nearly enough to be a suitable substitute, and I can't think of any other social networking site that has its shit together as well as Facebook. It seems like something tries to come up every year or so to knock it out, but it's just not going anywhere yet.

Just like WoW

[jingle.boy]

The pace of change in our society, and the rate of innovation, is so fast that we cannot even imagine what the 'next' Facebook, or next transformational technology is/will be.  I agree with Reap 100%.  Every business needs to continue to innovate in order to remain relevant.  History is frought with examples of companies that did not.  A very notable one that comes to mind is Encyclopedia Britannica... which had a 200+ year ownership in that market.  Then in 1994, out came Encarta.  In just two years, Britannica declared bankruptcy.  Less than 12 years later, Encarta shut down, losing to Wikipedia.

More recently... RIM vs Apple/Android; PCs vs smartphones/tablets.  You know who's gonna catch the biggest fallout from that latter one... Intel.  Once thought to be an 800lb gorilla incapable of decline, they're starting to get pummeled on both sides - consumer side from smartphones/tablets, and on the business side from consolidation via cloud computing.

Bottom line, without innovation, companies will become irrelevant.

[Nekov]

While I agree that Facebook has been getting worse with time, there is nothing out there that can compete with it. In order for Facebook to fall there needs to be something out there that is better in order for people to stop using FB and there currently isn't. Google+ could take it's place in case FB shares go down or if they have a mayor crash but right now there is no other viable option.

[Chino]

The only problem I see with facebook is that it's getting really deep into the business side of it. It went from being a social networking site to a never ending commercial for shit. They need to make sure to not go much further than that as I think it will turn a lot of people off. Personally, I could do without a social networking site. If Facebook got to the point that it was just annoying to use, I'd leave and probably not switch to anything else.

[Super Dude]

Yeah. Facebook has found a much larger crowd than MySpace could've ever hoped.

And its popularity lasted a helluva lot longer. IIRC MySpace was HUGE for like a year or two and then everyone flocked to Facebook. My FB account, on the other hand, has been active for six years and counting.

[robwebster]

The only problem I see with facebook is that it's getting really deep into the business side of it. It went from being a social networking site to a never ending commercial for shit. They need to make sure to not go much further than that as I think it will turn a lot of people off. Personally, I could do without a social networking site. If Facebook got to the point that it was just annoying to use, I'd leave and probably not switch to anything else.

I posted a happy birthday message on a friend's wall, recently. A little bubble popped up, inviting me to "PROMOTE!" this post, affording it a greater reach and giving it much higher prominence on people's news feeds.

Terribly corporate. I was not impressed.

Facebook does seem like it's cornered this niche a lot better than MySpace ever could've, though. It's made itself functional, indispensible, in a way MySpace never managed to. Anything could yet happen, granted, but it seems to me like it's more of a Google than a Yahoo.

[kári]

think twitter has become bigger than facebook

Nah, that's not true.  Facebook has about twice as many members.

Exactly. I don't know anyone in real life who uses Twitter.

[pogoowner]

think twitter has become bigger than facebook

Nah, that's not true.  Facebook has about twice as many members.

Exactly. I don't know anyone in real life who uses Twitter.

I know tons of people who use it. Certainly not as many as Facebook, though.

[YtseJam]

Somebody needs to replace facebook. It's just a giant cluster fuck with play by plays of people without real friends. With all that $$$ they can't have a better mobile app? Or better advertising tactics? I've been looking at some ugly bitches mugshot for a year now stating that there is a new law about drivers licenses. They need to set it up like a message board where you can have topics - and discussions. It's all commentary that is random and quickly disapears unless you are a fb addict. I hate fb

[orcus116]

I always wonder when people mention how much Facebook has changed because aside from a few layout changes I don't think it's really all that much different than it was 7 years ago when I first joined. The biggest thing Facebook had going for it over Myspace was that you weren't allowed to fuck with your profile page's look. Those Myspace html editors that allowed you to add bloated backgrounds, too many gifs, and change your icon to kittens and shit were downright evil.

[Chino]

Facebook also has the mobile element that Myspace never had the chance to utilize. Having something so massive in the palm of your hand makes for a deadly combo. In order for something to dethrone facebook, something needs to come out that either does what facebook does but way better, or have an element that everyone wants that facebook lacks. I don't see anything that can be improved upon/replaced in either of those options.

Google+ was a good attempt, but didn't bring anything new to the table that justified switching.

[black_biff_stadler]

Having something so massive in the palm of your hand makes for a deadly combo.

[kári]

think twitter has become bigger than facebook

Nah, that's not true.  Facebook has about twice as many members.

Exactly. I don't know anyone in real life who uses Twitter.

I know tons of people who use it. Certainly not as many as Facebook, though.

I can't speak for the rest of the world of course but here in Belgium it is almost exclusively used by radio stations, famous people and politicians etc... It is growing though.

[Elite]

think twitter has become bigger than facebook

Nah, that's not true.  Facebook has about twice as many members.

Exactly. I don't know anyone in real life who uses Twitter.

I know tons of people who use it. Certainly not as many as Facebook, though.

I can't speak for the rest of the world of course but here in Belgium it is almost exclusively used by radio stations, famous people and politicians etc... It is growing though.

It's the same in the Netherlands, seems a European thing as far as I know. Apparently in other parts of the world it's used way more.

[Zydar]

Having something so massive in the palm of your hand makes for a deadly combo.

 

 

[Elite]

What I find very useful about facebook is that basically all my friends use it and that it makes an easy tool about keeping in contact. The option to create groups is very handy, because it can serve as some sort of mini-messageboard which not everybody can see. What I find very lacking is that anything that's been on there for over 5 hours is nearly impossible to find back. On the other hand, that's maybe what it wants, to ensure you are there almost all the time and the interface is very easy, so it's perfectly possible for stupid people to use it as well. Therein lies a problem as well, because facebook bascially knows everything about you, me and everyone on it. Internet privacy has been largely overlooked the since the rise of internet, but I believe that nowadays people are starting to get a better grip on what the consequences are of things they're sharing on social media websites.

Facebook could be another bubble, and it most likely will be, but it's huge at the moment and only growing. In the Netherlands, we had a website called 'hyves', which was similar to Facebook, but a bit less 'mature'. This website was sold to a media group for X million euros and shortly afterwards, Facebook became popular. Hyves is a dead place now, or at least far less populated than it was, despite all the efforts to try getting people back. I deleted my account there, once I saw everything was happening on Facebook and never looked back. Though it's not the best thing possible, Facebook works very well for what it's designed to do; getting and keeping in touch with friends, sharing stuff, chatting and finding your interests.

[Chino]

Okay guys. I wasn't going to post this because obviously I wanted to make bank... but here goes anyway. This is something I sent to a buddy of mine one night at like 4am completely tanked a year or so ago. The following is from the email I sent him. I even drew a picture!!!

"A network can be thought of as a large grid consisting of intersecting horizontal and vertical lines. Social networking, visually, is just this. It is nothing but horizontal and vertical movement over a real-time visual collage of profiles, comments, ideas, thoughts, feelings, etc. I am visualizing the future of social networking, which shouldn't be referred to as a network at all. I am proposing the idea of what I like to call a "social universe".

It appears as though video displays, regardless of gadget, are entering the new technological realm. Recent 3D Box Office hits have proved that 3D can be done very well if done right, that most people like it, and that they have now influenced other markets. Television companies rushed to release the first 3D televisions. These devices were very expensive, and even more expensive once you tacked on an extra 400 for glasses for the entire family. Customers refused to buy this, but in doing so still showed that there was interest.

Smaller devices began adopting a newer form of the technology. Devices such as the Nintendo DS, Samsung cell phones, and small televisions and laptop displays have begun experimenting with glasses free 3D. Now that some time has passed, 3D home TVs have dropped the complex glasses and went with a simpler pair, as well as came down in price a great deal. Game developers are releasing more and more games in 3D, also indicating there is a great deal of interest for the technology.

It is my prediction is that within 15-17.5 years, all devices with a video display will display in 3D. The social universe will be the first 3D social network. Instead of lurking over a boring 2 dimensional grid of profiles, one could go into an exciting 3D cluster of profiles and pages. Social Networking works great now, but that's is because it is the ideal layout for out current display technology. As the 3D technology advances, the way visual media is presented will change. For example; Movies are traditionally filmed ( in regards to camera paths) in a horizontal format. By horizontal I mean that the cameras generally pan let to fight, as well as up and down occasionally. Directors utilizing 3D filming technology are expressing that for the technology to be the most effective, cameras will now have to begin panning along the z axis more frequently, and basically be adopted as the the format to film.

If that holds true, and applies to other forms of entertainment, the way we view our internet media will change too. Users are going to expect to be able to move through the online "universe", not just around it. I envision a never ending sea of bubbles floating in space or an invisible 3D web if you will. Bubbles come in a variety of colors, each representing a type of relationship. Blue could be a personal profile, green could be a friend's personal profile, red could be a fan page, yellow could be website's profile, etc... The bubbles could change in brightness and distance depending on their relevance to you. The beauty of the "social universe" is that it is an interactive, fully animated, 3-dimensional social hub. Bubbles will float around and rearrange in real time as their friends make posts.

The social universe is not reinventing the idea of a social network, it's simply going to present itself in a totally new and innovating fashion."

[Elite]

I love drunk conversations.

No, seriously though, that's some cool stuff you thought of that could totally work out, though the 'how', 'when' and 'what' is something we probably can't envision as of now, there's too much changing already in our everyday society, that it's become nearly impossible to predict what will be the next standard in a couple of years time. It's almost as if people have stopped becoming amazed at a new piece of technology or whatever; the human race has been dragged into a constant stream of new, better, more functional, etc. etc. etc. things in such a way that it's really strange when you actually think about it. Think back, 10, maybe 15 years and how the world and technology was then. Look back at it today, it's a different world, one we wouldn't have been able to imagine. I got my first idea of a generation gap when my nephew said something like 'why don't you have a tv in the car?'. I was amazed, I had never even seen that. The simple fact that something like that is considered normal for a boy 7 years younger than me, which to me was completely unknown shows how quickly society is moving into newer spheres. You can see it everywhere, children as young as ten carrying expensive cell-phones or iPods or whatever. It's getting more digital with every single day.

[ReaPsTA]

You can see it everywhere, children as young as ten carrying expensive cell-phones or iPods or whatever. It's getting more digital with every single day.

It's interesting...

I remember being in some class discussion about when you would allow your kids to carry a cell phone around.  The consensus was something like 10-14 if I remember correctly.

I feel like in the future, if we aren't there already, this discussion will be irrelevant.  It will be impossible for your child to interface socially with other people without the standard array of digital devices, including but not limited to a smart phone and a tablet computer.

[Orbert]

I think they'll finally figure out a way to integrate everything into a single device.  They've been trying for years, but a tablet (or iPad or whatever) is to big for people who just want tunes and/or a phone, and a phone/mp3 device is too small for people who want an actual screen.  At some point, all of these items will more or less become "required", and if you do have to carry them all, they might as well be combined into a single device.  There are people already who don't go anywhere without their iPad/laptop, and if you're gonna carry that, it might as well have your tunes and telephony built in.

[ReaPsTA]

Agreed.

[DebraKadabra]

I think they'll finally figure out a way to integrate everything into a single device.  They've been trying for years, but a tablet (or iPad or whatever) is to big for people who just want tunes and/or a phone, and a phone/mp3 device is too small for people who want an actual screen.  At some point, all of these items will more or less become "required", and if you do have to carry them all, they might as well be combined into a single device.  There are people already who don't go anywhere without their iPad/laptop, and if you're gonna carry that, it might as well have your tunes and telephony built in.

That's definitely how it's looking.  Of course, we COULD go the Futurama route with the eyePhone...

[jingle.boy]

I think they'll finally figure out a way to integrate everything into a single device.  They've been trying for years, but a tablet (or iPad or whatever) is to big for people who just want tunes and/or a phone, and a phone/mp3 device is too small for people who want an actual screen.  At some point, all of these items will more or less become "required", and if you do have to carry them all, they might as well be combined into a single device.  There are people already who don't go anywhere without their iPad/laptop, and if you're gonna carry that, it might as well have your tunes and telephony built in.

That's definitely how it's looking.  Of course, we COULD go the Futurama route with the eyePhone...

Google glasses??

Also, iPad mini announced today.