Author Topic: 2012 Election Thread  (Read 76045 times)

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Offline Super Dude

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2012, 11:49:19 AM »
The comments are hilarious.
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Offline chknptpie

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #36 on: August 03, 2012, 12:51:59 PM »
Romney's VP selection is going to make a huge difference in the polls - at least in my opinion. It will sway one way or another, but I predict the sway will be big.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #37 on: August 03, 2012, 01:25:30 PM »
I'm still looking forward to the Presidential debates. Obama is going to absolutely destroy Romney, and the way thing are going, I don't think Obama will hold back many punches. He'll make Romney look like an aloof ass, who has no coherent position, and who hasn't actually proposed one damn thing his entire campaign.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2012, 03:29:08 PM »
Mitt Romney must be getting pretty desperate, because every single YouTube video I've watched today has had his campaign ad at the beginning, complete with no actual mention of any policy ideas.
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Offline snapple

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2012, 03:49:02 PM »
man, can we name this thread "2012 Non Republican Discussion of the Election Thread"?

But seriously, I think Romney is going to win, I just feel it. Probably in my balls.
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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #40 on: August 05, 2012, 05:44:52 AM »
I've been saying that Obama is done since the first of the year and I am sticking with that prediction.


Citizens United has more to do with it than any objective policy differences between the two.  It's all about who can fling the most poo at the other guy, and from that perspective, thanks to the Republican Supreme Court, Romney will win.

Offline Rathma

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #41 on: August 05, 2012, 06:28:57 AM »
If that's the case then why is John McCain so vehemently against Citizens United?

Offline antigoon

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #42 on: August 05, 2012, 09:22:54 AM »
he's upset his own shitty campaign finance law is meaningless now.

Offline KevShmev

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #43 on: August 05, 2012, 12:29:05 PM »
With unemployment numbers still not good and gas prices on the rise again, it may not bode well for Obama.  The last time I looked, he still has the lead over Romney in what will likely be the key battleground states, but his lead isn't what it was before, and his lead could very well be gone by the time both party conventions are over with.  Knowing that we are gonna get bludgeoned with ads by both bashing the other in September, October and early November, as well as the slanted ugliness we'll get on both CNN and Fox News, I just want this election to be over with.

Offline Orthogonal

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #44 on: August 05, 2012, 01:02:46 PM »
This is election is Obama's to lose, not Romney's to win. Obama's record has been less than stellar, but the fact he's still leading in many polls demonstrates this. People may not be terribly excited about another 4 years of Obama, but they're even less excited about a Romney administration.
It's a lesser of two evils sort of deal.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #45 on: August 05, 2012, 01:22:42 PM »
This is election is Obama's to lose, not Romney's to win. Obama's record has been less than stellar, but the fact he's still leading in many polls demonstrates this. People may not be terribly excited about another 4 years of Obama, but they're even less excited about a Romney administration.
It's a lesser of two evils sort of deal.

I don't agree with much of what you said, but I definitely agree with that. The people who are supporting Romney are rooting for him not so much for him so much as because of their disdain for Obama.

I find it funny that Romney has outfunded Obama's campaign by a significant degree, but all he's managed to accomplish is increasing his exposure. All that exposure with no actual information about his platform don't do shit.
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #46 on: August 05, 2012, 01:38:24 PM »
I've been saying that Obama is done since the first of the year and I am sticking with that prediction.


Citizens United has more to do with it than any objective policy differences between the two.  It's all about who can fling the most poo at the other guy, and from that perspective, thanks to the Republican Supreme Court, Romney will win.

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Any analysis I've seen of the electoral college gives Obama a huge advantage.

Offline Rathma

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #47 on: August 05, 2012, 08:28:16 PM »
For a second there I thought you were linking fiveeightforums

Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #48 on: August 06, 2012, 01:51:06 AM »
Okay, I just got a new reason to be really looking forward to the debates:

https://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/08/book-details-obamas-dislike-of-romney/1#.UB91bqDy3bs

Quote
Thrush notes that Obama "began campaign preparations feeling neutral about Romney, but like the former governor's GOP opponents in 2008 and 2012, he quickly developed a genuine disdain for the man," according to excerpts released by Politico.


Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #49 on: August 06, 2012, 09:02:20 AM »
I've been saying that Obama is done since the first of the year and I am sticking with that prediction.


Citizens United has more to do with it than any objective policy differences between the two.  It's all about who can fling the most poo at the other guy, and from that perspective, thanks to the Republican Supreme Court, Romney will win.

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Any analysis I've seen of the electoral college gives Obama a huge advantage.


Well, yeah, if you're going to stick with liberal sources like the New York Times, I'm sure they're going to tell you what you want to hear.  According to RealClearPolitics.com, which combines poll results from all types of sources and provides averages, Obama is currently up by 2.8% points nationally.    That's kinda the definition of "not so huge."  And the trend has been that his lead has been dwindling month over month since January.


Don't get me wrong, I'm a registered Democrat.  I've only ever voted for one Republican in my life and that was almost 30 years ago.


When you combine that trend with the fact that Romney's pulling in about 25% to 30% more money than Obama and pile the shitty economy, rising unemployment rate, rising fuel prices, stagnant wages, etc, etc, etc......doesn't look like a slam dunk from where I sit.  Obama is in a tough spot. 


The "debates" are meaningless.  Neither one of them will actually answer any questions.  They'll both get up on the stage and regurgitate their talking points over and over for 90 minutes and the next day the DNC and most liberals and/or Democrats will say Obama won and the RNC and most conservatives and/or Republicans will say Romney won.   ::)   No minds will be changed by the debates.  Most of the people who actually watch those debates are partisans like me whose minds are already made up about who they're going to vote for.

Offline rumborak

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #50 on: August 06, 2012, 09:21:21 AM »
I don't know, I disagree. I think the debates have become the focal point of the elections. If anybody is ever going to change his/her mind about who to vote for, it's at the debates.
And yeah, I don't think it's a slam dunk either. Obama is presiding over the shambles of a recesssion + 2 wars + Europe in crisis. It's probably amazing that he's doing so well still given that.

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Offline Orthogonal

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #51 on: August 06, 2012, 10:15:33 AM »
You really think there are that many people sitting on the fence for the debates in order to decide on how to cast their vote? Unless there is a major blunder, I'm pretty sure most people will just vote down partisan lines. I don't know that I've met anyone who hasn't already made up their mind.

But I agree, it is quite amazing for an Incumbent with his record to be doing so well, it probably speaks more to how poorly Romney is doing as opposed to anything Obama has done.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #52 on: August 06, 2012, 11:10:19 AM »
I've been saying that Obama is done since the first of the year and I am sticking with that prediction.


Citizens United has more to do with it than any objective policy differences between the two.  It's all about who can fling the most poo at the other guy, and from that perspective, thanks to the Republican Supreme Court, Romney will win.

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Any analysis I've seen of the electoral college gives Obama a huge advantage.


Well, yeah, if you're going to stick with liberal sources like the New York Times, I'm sure they're going to tell you what you want to hear.  According to RealClearPolitics.com, which combines poll results from all types of sources and provides averages, Obama is currently up by 2.8% points nationally.    That's kinda the definition of "not so huge."  And the trend has been that his lead has been dwindling month over month since January.

Apples and oranges, and apples don't matter.

I said the electoral college, I didn't say the popular vote. Popular vote is meaningless.

https://news.yahoo.com/coming-obama-landslide-025409605.html

Quote
There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

Hell, it's even conceivable that Obama could lose the overall popular vote, and still win the election. I actually think this would be fucking awesome, then conservatives can be as angry as liberals were in 2000, and the electoral college would probably be done away with.


Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #53 on: August 06, 2012, 11:20:36 AM »
You really think there are that many people sitting on the fence for the debates in order to decide on how to cast their vote? Unless there is a major blunder, I'm pretty sure most people will just vote down partisan lines. I don't know that I've met anyone who hasn't already made up their mind.

But I agree, it is quite amazing for an Incumbent with his record to be doing so well, it probably speaks more to how poorly Romney is doing as opposed to anything Obama has done.


First link I found on "presidential debates changing your mind" was this and almost 70% of the respondents said it made no difference. 

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #54 on: August 06, 2012, 11:53:29 AM »
I've been saying that Obama is done since the first of the year and I am sticking with that prediction.


Citizens United has more to do with it than any objective policy differences between the two.  It's all about who can fling the most poo at the other guy, and from that perspective, thanks to the Republican Supreme Court, Romney will win.

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Any analysis I've seen of the electoral college gives Obama a huge advantage.


Well, yeah, if you're going to stick with liberal sources like the New York Times, I'm sure they're going to tell you what you want to hear.  According to RealClearPolitics.com, which combines poll results from all types of sources and provides averages, Obama is currently up by 2.8% points nationally.    That's kinda the definition of "not so huge."  And the trend has been that his lead has been dwindling month over month since January.

Apples and oranges, and apples don't matter.

I said the electoral college, I didn't say the popular vote. Popular vote is meaningless.

https://news.yahoo.com/coming-obama-landslide-025409605.html

Quote
There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

Hell, it's even conceivable that Obama could lose the overall popular vote, and still win the election. I actually think this would be fucking awesome, then conservatives can be as angry as liberals were in 2000, and the electoral college would probably be done away with.


Right now on Realclearpolitics.com they have Obama with 247 electoral votes, Romney with 191 electoral votes.    But what's also worth noting is there are 100 electoral votes that are currently rated as "toss up" meaning, that vote count could swing as much as 100 votes in either direction.  Believe me, I understand how the electoral college works.

Offline KevShmev

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #55 on: August 06, 2012, 12:06:06 PM »

The "debates" are meaningless.  Neither one of them will actually answer any questions.  They'll both get up on the stage and regurgitate their talking points over and over for 90 minutes and the next day the DNC and most liberals and/or Democrats will say Obama won and the RNC and most conservatives and/or Republicans will say Romney won.   ::)   No minds will be changed by the debates.  Most of the people who actually watch those debates are partisans like me whose minds are already made up about who they're going to vote for.

Agreed.

However, and this cannot be overlooked, even though Obama might be in trouble, you have to figure that voter turnout among blacks (which was up nearly 20% in 2008) will make a difference again, as you know many blacks who normally would not vote will show up to vote again, just to vote for Obama.  That was a huge factor last time, helping Obama take southern states like Florida and North Carolina, and likely will be a big factor again.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #56 on: August 06, 2012, 12:28:57 PM »
Right now on Realclearpolitics.com they have Obama with 247 electoral votes, Romney with 191 electoral votes.    But what's also worth noting is there are 100 electoral votes that are currently rated as "toss up" meaning, that vote count could swing as much as 100 votes in either direction.  Believe me, I understand how the electoral college works.

You're actually just proving my point. Obama has 247 votes, Romney has 191. Of the remaining 100, Obama only needs to get 13 more to clinch the nomination.

As for the debates: 30% of the electorate is a large number, so having 30% of the electorate decide their opinion based upon the debates is a huge number.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #57 on: August 06, 2012, 12:48:06 PM »
Right now on Realclearpolitics.com they have Obama with 247 electoral votes, Romney with 191 electoral votes.    But what's also worth noting is there are 100 electoral votes that are currently rated as "toss up" meaning, that vote count could swing as much as 100 votes in either direction.  Believe me, I understand how the electoral college works.

You're actually just proving my point. Obama has 247 votes, Romney has 191. Of the remaining 100, Obama only needs to get 13 more to clinch the nomination.

As for the debates: 30% of the electorate is a large number, so having 30% of the electorate decide their opinion based upon the debates is a huge number.


You may want to go read that web page again, it doesn't say anything -at all- about 30% of the electorate "deciding their votes based on the debates"   :lol


I was merely pointing out that almost 70% of voters have their minds made up regardless of the debates.


Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #58 on: August 06, 2012, 12:58:45 PM »
By the way, to me the biggest problem is there is no "debate" going on in these debates.


It's like a 90 minute commercial for both sides. 


It doesn't matter what the questions are, both candidates have memorized talking points they generally stick to and they stay religiously on script.


Here's some information from Gallup that summarizes what I am saying here:  The debates are, for all intents and purposes, nothing but a big dog and pony show.
https://www.gallup.com/poll/110674/presidential-debates-rarely-gamechangers.aspx

Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #59 on: August 06, 2012, 01:34:18 PM »
The two candidates still get to respond to each other, and that's the important part. When Romney says something flat out false about Obama's policies, Romney's own policies, or Obama's record, Obama's going to respond, and he's really good at that kind of thing.

Oh, and that survey is rather unscientific, so we really shouldn't take anything from it anyways.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #60 on: August 06, 2012, 01:38:43 PM »
Political science is by nature unscientific (or at least unable to be as scientific as it wants to be), so picking apart trends is meaningless. How many presidential elections have we had again? How many can be reliably figured into research data and be both fairly accurate and generalizable to the modern day?
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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #61 on: August 06, 2012, 01:58:01 PM »
Yeah, I agree.  Political science is anything but scientific.  These polls are often wrong too.    That's why I think it's better to look at aggregate polls like the ones on Realpolitics.com, where they combine the results of polls from a ton of different sources.  I think that has a tendency to weed out at least some of the inherent bias.  But yeah, the inherent bias in politics is what makes political science really little more than......gambling. 

Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #62 on: August 06, 2012, 02:02:12 PM »
Wait, I'm confused? Maybe I wasn't clear, but the survey I was talking about wast he random, voluntary internet survey you found about what kind of impact the debates might have.

I don't know how that got back onto the topic of the electoral college. That blog I linked to looks at a lot of polls, makes a lot of averages, and uses a lot of polls. I don't get why you're trying to somehow discredit the link I gave, especially not when the link you gave doesn't drastically disagree with mine.

Offline El Barto

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #63 on: August 08, 2012, 11:55:22 AM »
The debates don't mean anything at all concerning the issues.  They mean a tremendous amount with regards to likeability.  Tell Al Gore debates don't matter.  Or Nixon.  In this case, regardless of what a loser he is, Obama is still a pretty likeable guy, and everybody hates Myth.  He's a spoiled rotten rich kid, with no ideas and no ability to relate to us commoners.  My opinion is that after party affiliation, general likeability is the most important aspect of a candidate, and every second he spends on stage next to Obama costs him votes. 

It wouldn't surprise me a bit if there's severe personal animosity between Obama and Romney.  It's the same reason plenty of other people hate him.  Lost of people in politics got there by working for it.  Regardless of what you think about how he earned them or what they're worth, Obama wasn't handed his credentials.  His upbringing was pretty much like most of ours.  Myth was born into elite status, and has acted like it every day of his life.

Furthermore, his campaign has been one act of stupidity after another, and there's still plenty of time left for more disasters.  Obama has campaign experience, and any skeletons he might have are long exposed.  I'm betting they haven't even gotten near the door of Romney's closet yet.

Like I've said all along.  Blowout for Obama.
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #64 on: August 08, 2012, 12:06:42 PM »
Speaking of new detestable disasters for Romney, anyone see his new ad-campaign attacking Obama for "ending" welfare reform? Not only is the charge completely false, Obama is not ending welfare reform nor getting rid of the requirement to work, but the changes he made were requested by fucking Romney himself.


Offline Adami

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #65 on: August 08, 2012, 12:56:31 PM »
Speaking of new detestable disasters for Romney, anyone see his new ad-campaign attacking Obama for "ending" welfare reform? Not only is the charge completely false, Obama is not ending welfare reform nor getting rid of the requirement to work, but the changes he made were requested by fucking Romney himself.

Wouldn't it be great if a very smart and super rich independent person would buy ad space on TV for no other reason than to correct other politicians ads?
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #66 on: August 08, 2012, 01:10:10 PM »
I sure wouldn't complain, even though I can think of better solutions.

Offline Adami

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #67 on: August 08, 2012, 01:11:43 PM »
I sure wouldn't complain, even though I can think of better solutions.

Ohhh like a robot doing it? I like this. Imagine a robot lie detector that looks like ED209 or whatever from Robocop. It stands next to the candidates and is programmed to terminate as soon as a lie is made.


YES!
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #68 on: August 08, 2012, 01:21:42 PM »
Adami: you never know when he's being sarcastic, and even when if he is, there's a valid point somewhere in there.

God damn you.



Offline Adami

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Re: 2012 Election Thread
« Reply #69 on: August 08, 2012, 01:22:57 PM »
Yes, I'm the way less intelligent and way less articulate Stephen Colbert of the forums.
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