Can the UK afford the current anti-Europe stance?

[rumborak]

I don't know how much you guys are following this, but now that the Eurozone is finally willing to enact the needed increased integration efforts in order to get out of the crisis, PM Cameron is openly vetoing it. There's at this point open talk about the final conclusion being that the UK will leave the European Union.
What's your take on this? IMO this is the always-latent anti-Europe stance the conservatives in the UK have, finally rearing its head.

rumborak

[AcidLameLTE]

I don't expect we'll be leaving Europe (at least, I hope not). A lot of that talk seems to be coming from other parties like UKIP.

I've got a feeling it might go a long way to destroying the coalition though.

[Riceball]

Well, the way I see it Cameron was right to oppose what he opposed regarding the financial market regulation that would have put London at a competitive disadvantage to New York, Shanghai and Beijing with regards to financial markets. The way I see it, based on what has been publicly said, I think his position is eminately defensible; he clearly had some non-negotiables, so did Merkozy, and they couldn't come to an agreement. I don't see any kind of metagame going on here or anything...although I am literally on the other side of the world.

I don't think, however, that it is in the UKs best interests to leave the Union all together. Clearly, a large propotion of their trade goes to the region - and although this would be unlikely to change were they to exit formally, any barriers would harm flows. I don't know how the migration system works, either, but presumably the UK would be a beneficiary in terms of attracting and retaining top talent?

The real issue for me with regards to Europe is the fact that you have 26 different cultures (vastly different, not like Western Australia/Victoria or New York/California different), 26 different fiscal policies, 26 different industry policies, etc, but one common monetary policy. This just does not work without tighter fiscal integration, which would mean Germany, France and the other fiscally stronger nations (say, the Netherlands, Sweden) transferring fiscal capacity out of their countries and into the weaker nations. Either than or you hope and pray that internal migration of labour and capital sorts out the mismatches in productivity, capacity and growth; which I can't see happening due to the cultural barriers.

[Riceball]

...willing to enact the needed increased integration efforts in order to get out of the crisis...

Sorry to double post, but on this, its not really going to get them out of the crisis, its an improvement to the structure of the Euro in the long term; it deals with next to none of the problems that they are faced with in the short-term. Markets are brutal, and as you can see from what has happened so far this week they don't like the outcomes of the summit.

There was the inital bounce, which has occurred following each one of these summits as the media goes into overdrive about "the deal has been done!", but when the analysts and fund manager actually get down to it, each time they have been disappointed by lack of detail or complete avoidance of the real problems (both in this case).

[Riceball]

Noone else wants to yave a go? I feel really nerdy now.......

[AcidLameLTE]

There's maybe about 2 people from Europe who post in P&R.

I don't know enough about the situation to give an informed opinion on it

[rumborak]

...willing to enact the needed increased integration efforts in order to get out of the crisis...

Sorry to double post, but on this, its not really going to get them out of the crisis, its an improvement to the structure of the Euro in the long term; it deals with next to none of the problems that they are faced with in the short-term. Markets are brutal, and as you can see from what has happened so far this week they don't like the outcomes of the summit.

There was the inital bounce, which has occurred following each one of these summits as the media goes into overdrive about "the deal has been done!", but when the analysts and fund manager actually get down to it, each time they have been disappointed by lack of detail or complete avoidance of the real problems (both in this case).

I agree mostly with you. I think one of the problems of tackling this thing head-on is historical. The Eurozone is still a big experiment, and no country wants to surrender any more of it sovereignty than necessary (with of course the history in the back of everyone's mind). So, unlike countries like the USA where there was a clean slate and they could enact the integration necessary to pull it off, Europe has to go the hard way and do it step by step. The question is whether that is fast enough to stave off the distrust of the markets, and the bankruptcy of some of the nations.

rumborak

[jsem]

Depends what "afford" is supposed to mean. Financially? Unless they are planning to leech on Germany and France, they would afford getting out the EU.

Also:
Europe =/= EU

Anti-Europe =/= Anti-EU