Author Topic: "Climate Gate" Debunked  (Read 9278 times)

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Offline snapple

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2011, 03:30:40 PM »
How old are you, snapple? If you're comfortable sharing that information.

21. Something I personally can't change (ie. corrupt politicians and global warming, etc.) I choose not to get all passionate about. Is it selfish? A bit. I'm somewhat environmentally responsible, but I own an SUV.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2011, 03:36:37 PM »
How old are you, snapple? If you're comfortable sharing that information.

21. Something I personally can't change (ie. corrupt politicians and global warming, etc.) I choose not to get all passionate about. Is it selfish? A bit. I'm somewhat environmentally responsible, but I own an SUV.

That's something entirely different then denying the fact that the earth is warming.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2011, 03:39:10 PM »
Being you're in my generation, global warming will impact you pretty significantly. It'll be even worse for your kids and grandkids though.

Snapple, is your name Brad by any chance?
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Offline snapple

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2011, 07:55:09 PM »
Being you're in my generation, global warming will impact you pretty significantly. It'll be even worse for your kids and grandkids though.

Snapple, is your name Brad by any chance?

Not at all.


And Scheavo, I came into the thread to say that this guy's research isn't going to sway skeptics. Not discuss what I think. Sure, it came up, but that's not what I was looking out to do.

Offline zepp-head

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2011, 09:00:41 PM »
Snapple, as a fellow Michigander living a good deal south of you, I can tell ya global warming is happening here. As a kid, snow used to come in November. If memory serves, this is the first snow we've had before January in nearly a decade, least where I'm at.

As another fellow Michigander who has lived all over the state my whole life (moved a lot the past 6 years) I can say that snow before January happens 100% of the time everywhere I've been. 

Not really trying to push the debate one way or the other, just pointing out that Michigan winters are usually brutal, and in my experience, that hasn't lightened up.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2011, 09:19:10 PM »
Really? I dunno, that's been my experience with the Oakland County area, anyway.

Whatever the case, Michiganders unite!

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Offline snapple

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2011, 05:22:33 AM »
Last year there was frost on the ground one morning in July up here in the 231.

Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2011, 08:34:10 AM »
Climate change denial, for the most part, has very little to do with reason.  It's really more of a political movement.

rumborak

I disagree for the most part.  Maybe not denial, but I think global warming skepticism is a great example of logic and reason.  We all should be extrememly skeptical until it is completely proven.  I agree data is data, but no one has been able to mathematically explain tempature as a function of CO2, etc... That is what I am skeptical about.  If you want to say that you know how this infinitelly complex and non-linear system works, being extremely skeptical is very very rational. This is a very complex system, and scientists have an obligation to be extremely skeptical when someone argues that they understand the system.

The issue has become a lot of rhetoric and extremely wordy.   I would like to get a mathematical explination of how exactly temperature is a function of greenhouse gasses, and how it was proven true through emprical evidence.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2011, 09:50:18 AM »
For temperature:

While Michigan may have established record low temperatures over the last several years, the world has most definitely been warmer than average:








With 2010 being the warmest year on record.



(Wow GP, you're the man for GHG data :laugh:)



Hell, I don't know if you saw but in another thread there's a report that the Koch brothers' own research team found undeniable evidence for anthropogenic global warming.
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Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2011, 01:34:33 PM »
Ok so what is the mathematical function that relates the greenhouse output to global temperature?  Does such model also factor in other variables of warming? Like # of photons from the sun and their wavelength?  Has been able to predict the temperatures with such an equation?

I think one reason you see physicists as the skeptics is becuase they have the most familiarity with the scientific process, model verification, etc...

I would like the theory of global warming to have to stand trial in the same court of logic that every other physical theory has.

People should be searching for the truth, not hoping they are right because of their political affiliations or whatever

Offline Scheavo

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #45 on: November 06, 2011, 02:41:11 PM »

I think one reason you see physicists as the skeptics is becuase they have the most familiarity with the scientific process, model verification, etc...

I would like the theory of global warming to have to stand trial in the same court of logic that every other physical theory has.


CO2 raising temperatures is a physical property of co2 ,and was proved a hundred years ago. More co2 in the atmosphere WILL raise temperatures, it's a question of when, not if.

Furthermore, a concentration of 450ppm comes along with a certain level of ocean acidification, which fucks up the ocean ecosystem by not allowing forms of plankton to properly develop.

There are obviously other factors involved, but the basics of global warming are because of physical laws and properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. To deny them, you have to deny what we know about physics, and atomic theory.

Why listen to physicists more, when there are people who put their career's into looking at the matter? It would be like thinning a physicist can overrule neuroscience, or psychology, simply because they are very familiar with the scientific method.


Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #46 on: November 06, 2011, 03:58:06 PM »
It's funny, because the few physicists I do know all agree it's happening and that we're a main factor.
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Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #47 on: November 06, 2011, 04:05:59 PM »
It's funny, because the few physicists I do know all agree it's happening and that we're a main factor.

I read somewhere that physicsts Were the most skeptics.  But you all must agree here that being skeptical is the logical, and reasonable approach when it comes to climate change.  I think the corrct answer as of now is we dont know.  The climate has to be one of the most complex systems we have, and its temperature at any one point in time and space must depend on SO many variables....

Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #48 on: November 06, 2011, 04:15:03 PM »

CO2 raising temperatures is a physical property of co2 ,and was proved a hundred years ago. More co2 in the atmosphere WILL raise temperatures, it's a question of when, not if.

This doesnt seem right, temperature is a function of pressure, i dont think that any pqrticle can inheretly make anything hotter, as a particle doesnt have a certain temperature attributed it.  What its temperature depends on forces upon it.  Pv=nrt

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There are obviously other factors involved, but the basics of global warming are because of physical laws and properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. To deny them, you have to deny what we know about physics, and atomic theory.

No one is denying them.  What i am skeptical about is wheter they have been interpreted correctly and when scaled to such a large system, and whether the system and its other variables have been interpreted properly.  I just dont think that anyone really knwos whats going on.



Why listen to physicists more, when there are people who put their career's into looking at the matter? It would be like thinning a physicist can overrule neuroscience, or psychology, simply because they are very familiar with the scientific method.
[/quote]

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #49 on: November 06, 2011, 04:29:53 PM »
It's funny, because the few physicists I do know all agree it's happening and that we're a main factor.

I read somewhere that physicsts Were the most skeptics.  But you all must agree here that being skeptical is the logical, and reasonable approach when it comes to climate change.  I think the corrct answer as of now is we dont know.  The climate has to be one of the most complex systems we have, and its temperature at any one point in time and space must depend on SO many variables....

We do know. We have literally hundreds of thousands of years of data that tell us so.
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #50 on: November 06, 2011, 05:06:36 PM »

CO2 raising temperatures is a physical property of co2 ,and was proved a hundred years ago. More co2 in the atmosphere WILL raise temperatures, it's a question of when, not if.

This doesnt seem right, temperature is a function of pressure, i dont think that any pqrticle can inheretly make anything hotter, as a particle doesnt have a certain temperature attributed it.  What its temperature depends on forces upon it.  Pv=nrt

Fuck man, this is a proven trait of green house gases. Now you are just getting to the point where you're disagreeing for no scientific reason.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect

Certain atoms and molecular structures absorb different wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. CO2 is such that it absorbs heat that tries to escape the earth, and radiating it back towards the earth, thus keeping the heat inside the atmosphere. It's pure physics, and it's basically the same physics which causes you to see a certain flower as yellow, instead of black.

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No one is denying them.  What i am skeptical about is wheter they have been interpreted correctly and when scaled to such a large system, and whether the system and its other variables have been interpreted properly.  I just dont think that anyone really knwos whats going on.

You're skepticism is one sided. I'm skeptical we're causing climate change, but I'm also skeptical that I know what I'm talking about. Considering the way to reduce our possible effect on the climate is one which is rationally better (green energy), and better for us in terms of national security, our economy, our health, etc, then I'm gonna go ahead and say we should do those things regardless.

Plus, there is alos the issue of ocean acifidiation, which you don't seem to be aware of, and which you seem to have ignored.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification

This again is purely a result of physics. Your opinion is irrelevant.

Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #51 on: November 06, 2011, 05:54:50 PM »

CO2 raising temperatures is a physical property of co2 ,and was proved a hundred years ago. More co2 in the atmosphere WILL raise temperatures, it's a question of when, not if.

This doesnt seem right, temperature is a function of pressure, i dont think that any pqrticle can inheretly make anything hotter, as a particle doesnt have a certain temperature attributed it.  What its temperature depends on forces upon it.  Pv=nrt

Fuck man, this is a proven trait of green house gases. Now you are just getting to the point where you're disagreeing for no scientific reason.

That is not what you said... See this is where things fall apart.  Co2 doesnt inheritly cause rising temperatures.  If i put a co2 molecule that currently has no atomic motion (aprox 0 kelvin) in a box in space it doesnt cause rising temperatures.  However according to your statement it would.  Co2. Does NOT inheretly cause risig temperatures.  Its not nitpicking but sloppiness like this is failure of thinking that leads to things like that Idiot al gore making rediculous predictions of which he has no certanty whatsoever

Quote

Certain atoms and molecular structures absorb different wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. CO2 is such that it absorbs heat that tries to escape the earth, and radiating it back towards the earth, thus keeping the heat inside the atmosphere. It's pure physics, and it's basically the same physics which causes you to see a certain flower as yellow, instead of black.

ok this is a logical explination, i believe this has been proven tbats fine.  Its not what you were saying before.

Quote


You're skepticism is one sided. I'm skeptical we're causing climate change, but I'm also skeptical that I know what I'm talking about. Considering the way to reduce our possible effect on the climate is one which is rationally better (green energy), and better for us in terms of national security, our economy, our health, etc, then I'm gonna go ahead and say we should do those things regardless.

the first part of this is a disaster? Skepticism 1 sided?  No, i am a skeptic in the same way  scientists wanted proof of relativity.  I am not saying i know anythig, but i am skeptical as scientists should.  You seem to ignore the possibility that you are completely wrong, and still have failed to produce a logical, mathematical function that relates temperature to our polluting activites.

Again i am a man of science i dont pretend to know what is goin on.  And to say that it is right for you to force money out of my pocket to invest in these green energy invrstments to stop the changes in a system of which you know very very little about, doesnt make sense.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #52 on: November 06, 2011, 06:18:23 PM »
CO2 doesn't inherently cause a rise in temperatures; its effect on UV rays from the sun as they attempt to reflect from the Earth's surface and return to space does...as in, because of CO2, they don't.
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #53 on: November 06, 2011, 06:19:40 PM »

CO2 raising temperatures is a physical property of co2 ,and was proved a hundred years ago. More co2 in the atmosphere WILL raise temperatures, it's a question of when, not if.

This doesnt seem right, temperature is a function of pressure, i dont think that any pqrticle can inheretly make anything hotter, as a particle doesnt have a certain temperature attributed it.  What its temperature depends on forces upon it.  Pv=nrt

Fuck man, this is a proven trait of green house gases. Now you are just getting to the point where you're disagreeing for no scientific reason.

That is not what you said... See this is where things fall apart.  Co2 doesnt inheritly cause rising temperatures.  If i put a co2 molecule that currently has no atomic motion (aprox 0 kelvin) in a box in space it doesnt cause rising temperatures.  However according to your statement it would.  Co2. Does NOT inheretly cause risig temperatures.  Its not nitpicking but sloppiness like this is failure of thinking that leads to things like that Idiot al gore making rediculous predictions of which he has no certanty whatsoever

I never came close to saying anything like that, not even once. That was your assumption, based upon nothing I directly said. It's not sloppiness on my part, it's a critical failure of you to give people the benefit of the doubt.

Quote
Quote

Certain atoms and molecular structures absorb different wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. CO2 is such that it absorbs heat that tries to escape the earth, and radiating it back towards the earth, thus keeping the heat inside the atmosphere. It's pure physics, and it's basically the same physics which causes you to see a certain flower as yellow, instead of black.

ok this is a logical explination, i believe this has been proven tbats fine.  Its not what you were saying before.

No, that is what I was saying before. Co2 in the atmosphere will cause a rise in temperature, for the reason I gave. I'm sorry I didn't qualify that for this to be true, the sun had to still exist, but I figured that went without saying.  You were the one who made up an irrational reason and attributed it to me. Again, there's an aspect of critical thinking which involved giving the other person the benefit of the doubt, and not assuming they're saying something absolutely retarded.

Quote
Quote


You're skepticism is one sided. I'm skeptical we're causing climate change, but I'm also skeptical that I know what I'm talking about. Considering the way to reduce our possible effect on the climate is one which is rationally better (green energy), and better for us in terms of national security, our economy, our health, etc, then I'm gonna go ahead and say we should do those things regardless.

the first part of this is a disaster? Skepticism 1 sided?  No, i am a skeptic in the same way  scientists wanted proof of relativity.  I am not saying i know anythig, but i am skeptical as scientists should.  You seem to ignore the possibility that you are completely wrong, and still have failed to produce a logical, mathematical function that relates temperature to our polluting activites.

Again i am a man of science i dont pretend to know what is goin on.  And to say that it is right for you to force money out of my pocket to invest in these green energy invrstments to stop the changes in a system of which you know very very little about, doesnt make sense.

Except the proof in this case has been given, there's been a massive amount of studying regarding the issue, and the facts on the ground point to some influence by humans on the earth's climate. It's not as if someone is just putting forward this hypothesis, and not testing it, as you are implying. Scientists have gone over the issue, tie and time again, and they continue to come up with the same results, continue to agree that the earth is warming, and that the most likely cause is human activity. You may not know a lot about the system involved, but there are specialists who do. 97% of them think humans are involved. They didn't just come to that conclusion based upon the physical trait of co2 raising temperatures, but massive studies that look at the climate, and our role in it.

And what's the worst outcome of investing in green energy? That our oceans don't acidify, collapsing the food chain? That my air is cleaner, and healthier for me to breathe, improving my health? That I waste less money on inefficient technologies? That I have cleaner water to drink? It's killing two birds with one stone, and if one of the birds ended up being an illusion, we still killed one bird with one stone.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #54 on: November 06, 2011, 06:33:34 PM »
Not to mention the energy is renewable, i.e. doesn't run out in the next 40 years like oil. We'll be able to power our cities with water, wind, solar, and the like until long after we've nuked each other into oblivion.
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Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #55 on: November 06, 2011, 06:36:29 PM »
If theres no costs, theres no reason not to be green.  I totally agree, but then if there are additional costs, if becoming green would mean higher energy prices, i could see it having detremental effects on the well being of people.  Its a tough issue, you have to weigh the pros, cons , and the probability its occuring, to what extent its occuring, and to what measure we can stop it.  Its a lot of blurry ground that i think needs years and years of more study.

But dot get me wrong im all for green technology, i love when i hear that nuclear plants are being built.  I really think thats an efficient, clean answer.  But im not ready to say that we are killing the planet persay.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #56 on: November 06, 2011, 06:44:16 PM »
Would you at least acknowledge ocean acidification? Because that's a pure result of physical laws, it would have rather horrible consequences.

And also, green technology does have a higher initial cost. But if you look 5, 10 years down the road, they start paying for themselves, and start being drastically cheaper. That's not even taking into consideration the health positives, which would reduce health care costs in the country. It really is just a win/win when you look at green technology, and I honestly feel as if the debate around global warming is nothing but a distraction from the obvious benefits of green technology. Since they're tied together, people often assume that green technology only makes sense if global warming is true.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #57 on: November 06, 2011, 07:07:14 PM »
Nuclear is cleaner, but don't mistake that for clean. Instead of adding CO2 to the atmosphere and thus heating the planet indirectly, it directly adds heat to the system.
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Offline GuineaPig

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #58 on: November 06, 2011, 07:40:51 PM »
What?
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Offline rumborak

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #59 on: November 06, 2011, 07:53:21 PM »
Ok so what is the mathematical function that relates the greenhouse output to global temperature?  Does such model also factor in other variables of warming? Like # of photons from the sun and their wavelength?  Has been able to predict the temperatures with such an equation?

If you are really interested in this, pick up any of the scientific papers on the topic. Of course they posit mathematical relationships between the elements, and they prove with the data the statistical significance of the relationship.

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Offline glaurung

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #60 on: November 06, 2011, 07:59:18 PM »
Nuclear is cleaner, but don't mistake that for clean. Instead of adding CO2 to the atmosphere and thus heating the planet indirectly, it directly adds heat to the system.

How so?
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #61 on: November 06, 2011, 08:32:04 PM »
I can't remember. :lol I'll be seeing the professor who told me that on Tuesday, should have an answer for you all then (he's a nuclear physicist, so his word is good).
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Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #62 on: November 06, 2011, 08:45:43 PM »
...well it creates heat, yes, but i dont know how else to turn turbines. :)... Listen, we could go back to the dark ages if we wanted to be really green, but you have to remember a huge part of the enviornment f planet earth is its only self aware species.  And as weve increased smog we have increased our welfare dramatically. 

Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #63 on: November 06, 2011, 08:56:14 PM »
Ok so what is the mathematical function that relates the greenhouse output to global temperature?  Does such model also factor in other variables of warming? Like # of photons from the sun and their wavelength?  Has been able to predict the temperatures with such an equation?

If you are really interested in this, pick up any of the scientific papers on the topic. Of course they posit mathematical relationships between the elements, and they prove with the data the statistical significance of the relationship.

rumborak

Do you have one in mind?  Assuming you dont, i havent heard of any equation that explains the temperature... And then have been able to control other variables and show causality of greenhouse to temperature...  Most of them seem to use backtesting, which is something a lot of people in my field do and i need to remind them it does show causality.

Weve had higher rates of temperature rising in the past before no?   So we know its possible that other factors have caused warming.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2011, 09:00:38 PM »
Quote
Listen, we could go back to the dark ages if we wanted to be really green, but you have to remember a huge part of the enviornment f planet earth is its only self aware species.  And as weve increased smog we have increased our welfare dramatically. 

Why would we have to go back to the dark ages? Solar power and other green technologies are here now, they work, and they'd allow us to live the kind of lives we're living now, only better.

Correlation does not equal causation. The increase of smog has not increased our welfare, rather the things that have increased smog have increased our welfare. At the same time, future technology can reduce smog, and increase our welfare. Smog actually makes people dumber, there's studies which show the effects of smog on the human brain, and it's not good.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2011, 09:04:04 PM »
Quote
Listen, we could go back to the dark ages if we wanted to be really green, but you have to remember a huge part of the enviornment f planet earth is its only self aware species.  And as weve increased smog we have increased our welfare dramatically. 

Why would we have to go back to the dark ages? Solar power and other green technologies are here now, they work, and they'd allow us to live the kind of lives we're living now, only better.

Correlation does not equal causation. The increase of smog has not increased our welfare, rather the things that have increased smog have increased our welfare. At the same time, future technology can reduce smog, and increase our welfare. Smog actually makes people dumber, there's studies which show the effects of smog on the human brain, and it's not good.

Not to mention the asthma.

Green tech is not regression, it's progress.
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Offline rumborak

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #66 on: November 06, 2011, 09:10:11 PM »
Do you have one in mind?  Assuming you dont, i havent heard of any equation that explains the temperature... And then have been able to control other variables and show causality of greenhouse to temperature...  Most of them seem to use backtesting, which is something a lot of people in my field do and i need to remind them it does show causality.

I hope you're not dismissing "backtesting" (which tells me you work in the financial field?), i.e. using historical data to validate hypothesis, completely, do you?
Papers will post mechanisms (i.e. the mathematical relations you inquired) and then try to show that a) they explain the available data and b) no other mechanism can account for it. From there causality can be inferred.

Quote
Weve had higher rates of temperature rising in the past before no?   So we know its possible that other factors have caused warming.

Those are the other mechanisms one has to account for. The point of the research is that they have shown the recent rise can *not* be accountede for by previous mechanisms.

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Offline livehard

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #67 on: November 06, 2011, 09:35:32 PM »
Backtesting does little, and cannot be relied upon to "verify models".  But thats basically what i said, i dont see that having been done definitively.  Im not saying its not happening, but the burden of proof is on those that propose the theory

Offline Super Dude

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #68 on: November 06, 2011, 09:44:33 PM »
Backtesting does little, and cannot be relied upon to "verify models".  But thats basically what i said, i dont see that having been done definitively.  Im not saying its not happening, but the burden of proof is on those that propose the theory

We've already given you a pretty large amount of proof.
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Offline rumborak

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Re: "Climate Gate" Debunked
« Reply #69 on: November 06, 2011, 10:01:50 PM »
Backtesting does little, and cannot be relied upon to "verify models".

Can you give a reasoning for this, other than just a dogmatic statement? If you do "backtesting" correctly, it is a very powerful tool for testing models, and one used in many many other fields of science.

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