Out of curiosity, I would like to hear you guys' say on whether or not you believe Obama will be elected, depending on the Repub nominee who makes it to the candidacy.
Like, would you say that Obama has a lower chance of winning against Mitt Romney, as opposed to Perry or Bachmann, or even Paul?
I think it'd be interesting to see if we have a consensus on which nominee would be the most challenging opponent.
I mean, I'd rather Obama win, but still, it'd be kinda interesting to see.
Obama will very likely not be re-elected, largely due to the condition of the economy. I think it's worth noting as well, despite the right wing talking points nonsense that is sure to follow this post, that it is unlikely in the extreme that the economy would be measurably different today if McCain had been elected.
The problem here is one of perception. The perception is, and always has been (right, wrong or indifferent) that the current Chief Executive takes the hit for the economic conditions in the country.
Now, personally, I am not very happy with the Obama presidency. I'm a liberal Democrat. I voted for him and I'll vote for him again, but from my POV, his presidency has been very successfully scuttled by a unified opposition party that has gone, and will continue to go out of its way to deny this president any form of legislative victory. Republicans are now voting against ideas THEY previously proposed.
There's a guy who writes for CNN.com, Julian Zelizer, and I find his commentaries to be very insightful and he does a terrific job of remaining largely above the partisan divide.
He wrote, recently that:
Gridlock benefits Republicans and, more broadly, conservative politics, for several reasons.
Click the link above if you want to read the whole thing. It makes a lot of sense. And it explains why nothing is really getting done now that the House is controlled by Republicans. They don't want anything to get done because it will help this president. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has stated unequivocally that defeating Obama in 2012 is the # priority for Republicans.
But don't take my word for it.
On Fox News Sunday Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) maintained that the Republicans’ number one goal remains the defeat of President Obama in 2012. In an interview with Bret Baier of Fox News, McConnell was asked about a charge made by Democrats that the Republicans are purposefully sabotaging the economy for political gain in 2012. McConnell at first seemed to admit the charge, saying “Well that’s true” before going on to claim that Republicans want to fix the economy first.
SourceThis is the system we have now. A bastardized version of what the framers really intended, and for all of the blather and bluster you hear from the current crop of Republican candidates about "The Constitution" none of them seem to give a rat's ass about the fact that they have now resorted to filibustering any and all legislation brought to the floor by Democrats for the sole purpose of maintaining the status quo so that nothing will improve, which, obviously, hurts the incumbent President.
The thing I am concerned about the most is the supreme court. It's already far enough to the right. Too far, really. The Citizens United case makes my point more clearly than I could. Mitt Romney will appoint another right-winger to the court. That's bad. Very bad.