You seem unaware of the actual process. The system mirrors the electoral college, in that the people and their vote don't actually matter. The electors, or in this case delegates, are chosen by rules which vary state to state, and is separate from the primaries or caucuses. In this case, Paul has been claiming for a while that the delegates going to the convention to actually vote for Paul or Romney are much more in support of him than Romney. This completely changes the delegate math, and thus completely changes the actual election.
I mean, look at the last Presidential Election. Electorally, it was a landslide. In terms of popular vote, there wasn't that much difference. Or how about 2000, even ignoring debating the horrible Supreme Court decision, Gore won the popular vote nation wide, but lost the election.
The media, and most of the people reporting on the matter, don't actually get into the details.