Author Topic: Election 2012  (Read 231739 times)

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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #630 on: December 26, 2011, 05:30:52 PM »
I'm not surprised about Gingrich.

Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #631 on: December 26, 2011, 06:53:13 PM »
FIRE AWAY!

Offline ResultsMayVary

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #632 on: December 26, 2011, 08:33:45 PM »
I hate to backtrack a bit of the thread's history, but I hope Paul wins the nomination (even though it's extremely unlikely). I will be voting for him here in Ohio for the primary and the general election (regardless of whether or not he's nominated).

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Offline hefdaddy42

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #633 on: December 27, 2011, 04:54:37 AM »
Another tradeoff could be a cabinet position and the best would by far be Secretary of State, but that would NEVER happen.
He would be an awful Secretary of State.
Hef is right on all things. Except for when I disagree with him. In which case he's probably still right.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #634 on: December 27, 2011, 05:32:26 AM »
I'm saying, the best for him to be able to advance his positions and his influence.


Offline Perpetual Change

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #635 on: December 27, 2011, 06:12:55 AM »
Hate to say "I told you so," but it looks like there is something after all to Ron Paul's campaign being kinda Nazi-ish.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/26/us/politics/ron-paul-disowns-extremists-views-but-doesnt-disavow-the-support.html?pagewanted=all
Quote
The American Free Press, which markets books like “The Invention of the Jewish People” and “March of the Titans: A History of the White Race,” is urging its subscribers to help it send hundreds of copies of Ron Paul’s collected speeches to voters in New Hampshire. The book, it promises, will “Help Dr. Ron Paul Win the G.O.P. Nomination in 2012!”

Don Black, director of the white nationalist Web site Stormfront, said in an interview that several dozen of his members were volunteering for Mr. Paul’s presidential campaign, and a site forum titled “Why is Ron Paul such a favorite here?” has no fewer than 24 pages of comments. “I understand he wins many fans because his monetary policy would hurt Jews,” read one.

Quote
Mr. Crane of the Cato Institute recalled comparing notes with Mr. Paul in the early 1980s about direct mail solicitations for money. When Mr. Crane said that mailing lists of people with the most extreme views seemed to draw the best response, Mr. Paul responded that he found the same thing with a list of subscribers to the Spotlight, a now-defunct publication founded by the holocaust denier Willis A. Carto.


Honestly, I would not be surprised at all if one of those Stormfront guys helped decide that Ron Paul's "unofficial" campaign should have that black white and red theme I was pointing out earlier.

This, the Lew Rockwell stuff, and everything else is making me wonder if Paul's opposition to the Civil Rights Act and his other bizarre stances on race issues was always just a consequence of him being a true libertarian, or if maybe the "libertarianism" has just been a way for him to intellectualize much uglier beliefs.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #636 on: December 27, 2011, 08:58:13 AM »
To me this is a classic sign of opportunism. Paul is a politician, so he wants support. Paul however saw his chance not in the mainstream, but instead by vacuuming up the fringes. And to get those, he had to purport a couple of nasty views. Whether he actually believed those or not is secondary really. What matters is to what ends he was willing to go in order to get political support. And to this day, there's a lot of questionable elements in Paul's ranks.

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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #637 on: December 27, 2011, 09:30:51 AM »
Another tradeoff could be a cabinet position and the best would by far be Secretary of State, but that would NEVER happen.
He would be an awful Secretary of State.
Even if a Republican topples Obama next year (I'd say Romney has a 50/50 shot at it) Ron Paul will not be SoS.  He's articulated a position on foreign policy that is pretty much 180 degrees in opposition to Republican foreign policy orthodoxy.  None of them would put Ron Paul in that position.

To me this is a classic sign of opportunism. Paul is a politician, so he wants support. Paul however saw his chance not in the mainstream, but instead by vacuuming up the fringes. And to get those, he had to purport a couple of nasty views. Whether he actually believed those or not is secondary really. What matters is to what ends he was willing to go in order to get political support. And to this day, there's a lot of questionable elements in Paul's ranks.

rumborak


I agree rumborak.  I also think David Frum's article on CNN is basically a moderate Republican establishment hit piece that has essentially leveraged Ron Paul's "fringe vacuuming" propensity and used it against him. 

What really blows my mind is the rhetorical gymnastics I see a lot of my "born again" and "evangelical" Christian friends doing to rationalize voting for Ron Paul.  I actually feel sorry for a lot of them (and I don't mean that in a condescending way at all) because in this election cycle they've been given the opportunity (if they want to back a candidate that might actually win more than two states in the general election) to support a philandering, serial liar (Gingrich).......a guy who has taken more positions on the issues than the Kama Sutra (Romney), or a guy who thinks the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was a bad idea (Ron Paul)......not the most competitive alternatives......


Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #638 on: December 27, 2011, 09:46:20 AM »
To me this is a classic sign of opportunism. Paul is a politician, so he wants support. Paul however saw his chance not in the mainstream, but instead by vacuuming up the fringes. And to get those, he had to purport a couple of nasty views. Whether he actually believed those or not is secondary really. What matters is to what ends he was willing to go in order to get political support. And to this day, there's a lot of questionable elements in Paul's ranks.

I agree rumborak.  I also think David Frum's article on CNN is basically a moderate Republican establishment hit piece that has essentially leveraged Ron Paul's "fringe vacuuming" propensity and used it against him. 

It's also the reason why he won't completely own up to it. Because if he whole-heartedly disassociated himself from those former views, he would lose part of his die-hard supporters, the guys who stand in the pouring rain somewhere in Iowa trying to get Paul elected.

rumborak
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Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #639 on: December 27, 2011, 09:52:59 AM »
It's like when Boehner would evade the interview questions about Obama's birthplace. I'm sure Boehner doesn't give two craps about where the President was born but he didn't give a completely straight answer that closed the door on the issue for fear of losing the birthers.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2011, 10:04:44 AM by antigoon »

Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #640 on: December 27, 2011, 10:02:07 AM »
To me this is a classic sign of opportunism. Paul is a politician, so he wants support. Paul however saw his chance not in the mainstream, but instead by vacuuming up the fringes. And to get those, he had to purport a couple of nasty views. Whether he actually believed those or not is secondary really. What matters is to what ends he was willing to go in order to get political support. And to this day, there's a lot of questionable elements in Paul's ranks.

I agree rumborak.  I also think David Frum's article on CNN is basically a moderate Republican establishment hit piece that has essentially leveraged Ron Paul's "fringe vacuuming" propensity and used it against him. 

It's also the reason why he won't completely own up to it. Because if he whole-heartedly disassociated himself from those former views, he would lose part of his die-hard supporters, the guys who stand in the pouring rain somewhere in Iowa trying to get Paul elected.

rumborak
Call me crazy but I'm sure this exact thing happened four years ago. A reporter asked him on camera if he like these kind of supporters and without hesitation he said: "No."

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #641 on: December 27, 2011, 10:35:44 AM »
Well, it's definitely not enough, as one can see right now. Does anyone really have the impression he's distancing himself from them? I certainly don't. Just like antigoon said, it's like Boehner trying to please two masters at once, the moderates and the extreme. Paul tries the same thing.

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Offline Perpetual Change

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #642 on: December 27, 2011, 02:25:42 PM »
Call me crazy but I'm sure this exact thing happened four years ago. A reporter asked him on camera if he like these kind of supporters and without hesitation he said: "No."

And then, when he was asked if he'd return their financial contributions, he talked around it in a circle like he does whenever any of his bizarre views or circumstances come up.

But anyway, the point is, no-one really cares that a primary candidate who doesn't have a chance and gets left out of debates might have ties to White Nationalists and other unsavory right-wing extremist ('08 RP). That is par for course if we're talking about the Republican Party. It DOES matter when the candidate is a front-runner, though. In a way, Paul's not been able to live up to his reputation all that well. The more he gets put under the media spot-light, the more he looks like a very typical politician who just so happens to be more rigid in his positions.

Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #643 on: December 27, 2011, 02:45:50 PM »
I don't understand. So people ignored these issues back in '08 because he had no chance, but now, even if answered or refuted (circling? that's not only unfair but false) those issues somehow have to haunt him again.
To be fair I don't live in the US and don't stay tuned 24/7 to CNN, MSNBC or FOX News (their signal comes here with my Cable), but I don't see the "heat" (on these issues) you're saying that it's making him look "like a very typical politician". Last time I checked he's doing really well, #1 spot and still rising (God, sometimes I miss The Daily Show just to see how Stewart would handle this event.)

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #644 on: December 27, 2011, 03:32:26 PM »
I don't understand. So people ignored these issues back in '08 because he had no chance, but now, even if answered or refuted (circling? that's not only unfair but false) those issues somehow have to haunt him again.

Of course. Media stations have people whose job it is to dig through candidates' past. They're not gonna waste their time going through candidates' past who they think have no chance of winning anyway. Now that all but one non-Mitts are gone or on their way down, Paul is in the focus and the public gets focused on his skeletons in the closet.

Quote
Last time I checked he's doing really well, #1 spot and still rising (God, sometimes I miss The Daily Show just to see how Stewart would handle this event.)

He is indeed still the front runner in Iowa. The "rising" part comes mostly from Gingrich's support having completely collapsed over the last few days (from 31% to 15% in just a few days); Romney is rising too.
In the national polls Paul is barely over Bachmann and Perry however.

EDIT: Gingrich says if RP gets to be nominated, he wouldn't vote for him: https://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/gingrich-wouldnt-vote-for-ron-paul/?hpt=hp_t2

rumborak
« Last Edit: December 27, 2011, 03:39:20 PM by rumborak »
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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #645 on: December 27, 2011, 03:57:41 PM »
That's a fairly typical verbal vomit moment for Gingrich.  He often says really stupid things, which is one (of many) reasons that he will not be the Republican nominee.

 

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #646 on: December 27, 2011, 04:00:39 PM »
I think he realizes that his star has set, and now he's trying to his remaining influence to help Romney.

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Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #647 on: December 27, 2011, 04:03:01 PM »
He's going to be the nominee! I mean he said it himself! DUHH.



Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #648 on: December 28, 2011, 07:21:00 AM »
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-maintains-his-lead.html

December 27, 2011
Paul maintains his lead

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state.  Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.

Although Romney's support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul's 9%. It's certainly still close enough that he could win, but there's nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney's biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him.

In a development that probably no one would have expected a year ago Romney is winning big with regular Fox News viewers, getting 27% to 16% for Gingrich, 15% for Bachmann, and just 12% for Paul. But Paul leads Romney 38-13 with the 48% of likely caucus voters who don't regularly watch Fox News.

Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He's gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls.  His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54 and only 32% of likely voters think that he has strong principles to 45% who believe he does not. Once the darling of Tea Party voters in the state, he's now slipped to third with that group behind Bachmann and Paul.  There's not much reason to think Gingrich can return to his former strong standing in the state in the final week.

Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum continue to all be clustered right around 10%. Santorum actually has the best favorability numbers of any of the candidates at +27 (56/29). He's also the most frequent second choice of voters at 14%.  Whether he can translate any of this into a top 3 finish remains to be seen, but he's someone who would seem to have the potential to grow his support in the final week.

One thing that's hurt Santorum's ability to really make a move is that the Evangelical vote is incredibly fragmented with 6 different candidates getting between 12 and 21%. Paul actually leads the way with that group at 21% to 16% for Romney and Bachmann, 15% for Santorum, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Perry.

Bachmann  leads the way with Tea Party voters 24-21 over Paul but the fact that you can be winning Tea Partiers but only in 4th place overall speaks to the diminished power of that movement compared to 2010 within the Republican electorate...only 26% of likely caucus voters consider themselves to be members.

Iowa looks like a 2 person race between Paul and Romney as the campaign enters its final week.  If Paul can really change the electorate by turning out all these young people and independents who don't usually vote in Republican caucuses, he'll win. If turnout ends up looking a little bit more traditional, Romney will probably prevail. And given all the strange twists and turns to this point don't be surprised to see yet another surprise in the final week...and based on the innards of this poll the person best positioned to provide that surprise in the closing stretch is Santorum.

Apparently, digging a two decade old skeleton in a closet hasn't affected him that much. Paul is still leading, Gingrich is plummeting while Mitt Romney is barely maintaining his 20% support - I really don't think he can reach RP by next Tuesday. All I can say is that these are some good GOP elections thus far.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #649 on: December 28, 2011, 06:14:01 PM »
Well, the whole article kinda relies mostly on the most recent ARG poll, which is however quite a few days old. Whatever influence the recent attacks on Paul had remains to be seen.
I thought Huckabee (of all people) had an interesting point. The winner of Iowa might be decided by the weather. Weather is good (i.e. above 40 people come out and vote) and Romney comes out on top, weather is bad (die-hard Paulites stand in the rain), Paul wins.

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Offline Perpetual Change

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #650 on: December 29, 2011, 06:16:11 AM »
That "skeleton" will dig at him, even if it doesn't in Iowa. Right now, Paul likes to leave the stage without taking a single question from reporters; no-doubt there are plenty who want to ask him about the newsletters, Lew Rockwell, and so-on. You get to do that when you're a potential winner of one state in a party primary; not when you're a major candidate in a national election.

Offline Tick

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #651 on: December 29, 2011, 06:17:43 AM »
Obama is going to have a field day on the Republicans when the time comes based on the fact all he will have to say is...
You couldn't even decide who was best to lead your party, how can you believe he can lead a nation?
Yup. Tick is dead on.  She's not your type.  Move on.   Tick is Obi Wan Kenobi


Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #652 on: December 29, 2011, 08:44:53 AM »
Obama is going to have a field day on the Republicans when the time comes based on the fact all he will have to say is...
You couldn't even decide who was best to lead your party, how can you believe he can lead a nation?

Eh, that's not much of an attack when you consider that the Democratic primaries in 2008 were just as volatile, if not more so.

His best line of attack against Republicans will be the "do nothing congress"

Offline ddtonfire

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #653 on: December 30, 2011, 08:28:45 AM »
Eh, that's not much of an attack when you consider that the Democratic primaries in 2008 were just as volatile, if not more so.

Yes, four years ago, I was convinced the Democrats couldn't win since their base seemed so divided at the time.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #654 on: December 30, 2011, 01:04:58 PM »
Eh, that's not much of an attack when you consider that the Democratic primaries in 2008 were just as volatile, if not more so.

Yes, four years ago, I was convinced the Democrats couldn't win since their base seemed so divided at the time.

Right.  And who would have imagined that after such a bitter and heated primary battle that Hillary Clinton would have ended up in the most powerful cabinet position there is?  It seemed unimaginable at the time, but as has often been postulated here and elsewhere, a week in politics is an eternity. 

The Republicans will have their battle, some blood will be spilled, but then at the end they will band together and support their nominee.  And I'll tell you right now, if Mitt Romney is who they nominate, Obama is going to have his work cut out for him getting re-elected.


Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #655 on: December 30, 2011, 01:19:25 PM »
Nah, Obama will have a field day with Mitt, and all the endorsements and crazy shit he's said. Mitt supported the Personhood Amendment in Mississippi, which failed by 2/3's of the vote, as well as his support for ending public unions in Ohio, which also failed by 2/3's.


Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #656 on: December 30, 2011, 02:12:21 PM »
And if he wants to play nasty, all he needs to mention is the word "Mormon" numerous times in his ads.

rumborak
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Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #657 on: December 30, 2011, 04:34:12 PM »
https://www.ronpaul.com/2011-12-30/iowas-choice-dr-paul-or-u-s-bankruptcy-more-wars-and-many-more-dead-soldiers-and-marines/

Michael Scheuer Endorses Ron Paul for President

By RonPaul.com on December 30, 2011

Michael Scheuer is the former head of the Bin Laden unit for the CIA. He was with the CIA for 22 years. He quit in disgust after the 9-11 commission report was released. He is the best-selling author of four books on the subject of foreign policy and the Middle East, and he is a painful thorn in the side of the establishment. [Full article in the link above]

It's nice to see this kind of support.  :tup

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #658 on: December 30, 2011, 04:47:24 PM »
I wasn't surprised at all to see it, he's been a real good spokesman for non-interventionism.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #659 on: January 01, 2012, 07:28:24 AM »
From CNN.com

Quote
In his 1987 manifesto "Freedom Under Siege: The U.S. Constitution after 200-Plus Years," Paul wrote that AIDS patients were victims of their own lifestyle, questioned the rights of minorities and argued that people who are sexually harassed at work should quit their jobs.

Another item in a growing list of reasons why Ron Paul isn't going anywhere as a candidate for president, regardless of where he finishes in Iowa.

His own toxic words are going to eat him alive from the inside out.


Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #660 on: January 01, 2012, 12:43:23 PM »
Iowans are getting desperate, now Santorum is surging.

rumborak
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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #661 on: January 01, 2012, 01:24:12 PM »
Let's wait for the PPP poll to come out tonight.

It's going to be a race between Paul and Romney. I don't think Santorum's going to break the top two.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #662 on: January 01, 2012, 04:06:46 PM »
From CNN.com

Quote
In his 1987 manifesto "Freedom Under Siege: The U.S. Constitution after 200-Plus Years," Paul wrote that AIDS patients were victims of their own lifestyle, questioned the rights of minorities and argued that people who are sexually harassed at work should quit their jobs.

Another item in a growing list of reasons why Ron Paul isn't going anywhere as a candidate for president, regardless of where he finishes in Iowa.

His own toxic words are going to eat him alive from the inside out.

Ya know, this sorta brings up an interesting question in politics: how much are politicians allowed to grow, change, learn, etc? I'm not sure if this necessarily fits this case, but in other cases, it seems like we expect politicians to think the same thing today as they did decades ago. Any change is seen as "flip-flopping," but it's rather unfair in the overall gist of things. In fact, I'd probably be more disturbed if someone didn't change their opinion over thirty years; reminds me of Colbert's Correspondence performance, where he said Bush would think the same thing on Wednesday as he did on Monday, no matter what happened on Tuesday.

Offline chknptpie

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #663 on: January 03, 2012, 01:42:55 PM »


Well played Mr. Obama....

Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #664 on: January 03, 2012, 03:53:42 PM »
:lol