Author Topic: Election 2012  (Read 231808 times)

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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #595 on: December 24, 2011, 03:20:20 AM »
Plus, there are no winner take all states - so a brokered convention is very likely at this point.

Offline lordxizor

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #596 on: December 24, 2011, 04:28:09 AM »
Keep in mind that Huckabee won the Iowa primary 4 years ago and then quickly faded. Iowa in not a good first test, nor is NH. NH in particular is a very Paul friendly state. I really can't see Paul winning much beyond that.

Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #597 on: December 24, 2011, 06:56:18 AM »
Mitt vs Paul in Virginia.

Both Newt and Perry failed to get on the ballot with the 10K signatures needed. With all the hate Mitt has, this is maybe what Paul needs.

YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS UP!!!! :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/virginia-politics/post/perry-disqualified-from-va-primary-ballot/2011/12/23/gIQA3BZNEP_blog.html

Posted at 03:40 AM ET, 12/24/2011
Gingrich, Perry Disqualified from Va. Primary Ballot
By Anita Kumar

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry failed to submit enough valid signatures to qualify for the Virginia primary ballot, state GOP officials said Friday evening and early Saturday.

The Republican Party of Virginia announced early Saturday that Gingrich and Perry failed to submit 10,000 signatures of registered voters required to get their names on the ballot for the March 6 primary.

“After verification, RPV has determined that Newt Gingrich did not submit required 10k signatures and has not qualified for the VA primary,” the party announced on Twitter.

The rejection is a significant setback for the Gingrich campaign since he is leading the polls in Virginia among likely Republican voters and is seen as a strong contender for the nomination.

Perry’s campaign told state election officials it had submitted 11,911 signatures, and Gingrich’s campaign said it submitted 11,050 signatures. State party officials spent Friday night validating the signatures.

Earlier Friday, the Republican Party of Virginia certified former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) to appear on the ballot.

The four candidates turned in thousands of signatures by the 5 p.m. deadline Thursday.

Jerry Kilgore, former attorney general and chairman of Perry’s campaign in Virginia, said he was disappointed, but that qualifying for the Virginia ballot is a “daunting task.”

“Hopefully, he will do better in other states,’’ he said. “He can focus on other states.”

Candidates had until 5 p.m. to collect 10,000 signatures from across the state, including 400 from each of the 11 congressional district.

Republican presidential candidates Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum did not submit signatures and failed to qualify on Thursday, according to state GOP officials.

Virginia, an increasingly important swing state, will hold its primary on Super Tuesday, March 6.

Romney became the first Republican presidential candidate Tuesday to submit signatures for Virginia’s primary election ballot.

On Thursday morning, Gingrich said at an event outside Richmond that his campaign was still collecting signatures, but expected to have enough.

A poll released Wednesday showed Gingrich with a slight lead over Romney among Virginia Republicans in the race for president. The Quinnipiac University poll shows Gingrich at 30 percent and Romney at 25 percent among Republican voters.

President Obama was the first presidential candidate to submit his signatures Dec. 2.

The Democratic Party of Virginia certified his signatures Friday. He was the only Democrat to qualify for the ballot so the State Board of Elections will cancel the primary. All Virginia delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be cast for him, said Brian Moran, party chairman.


To quote a redditor: Newt Gingrich wants to be president so bad, he forgot to get himself on the ballot IN THE STATE HE LIVES IN.

« Last Edit: December 24, 2011, 09:18:24 AM by emindead »

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #598 on: December 24, 2011, 08:36:49 AM »
I already said that. I wonder who people hate more: Romney or Paul. I hope it's Romney.

Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #599 on: December 24, 2011, 09:19:30 AM »
Sorry, man. Edited my post.

Offline Perpetual Change

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #600 on: December 24, 2011, 10:36:03 AM »
They keep asking Paul if he'd run as an independent if he didn't get the nomination. But I'm curious; even though it's a long shot, do you think the 80 percent of the Republican establishment that finds Paul's views reprehensible would run their own candidate given an unlikely Paul nomination?

Given the nature of most Republicans during Barry's first term, I could see the party actually failing to fall in line behind their nominee and cannibalizing themselves during the General Election. This class of Republicans have definitely shown time and time again that they prefer making dramatic statements and perfect ideological adherence over the practical concerns of governance, and the primaries have been ugly. Given how pathetic they've done over the last four years, I'd expect them to lose anyway; but the way they've looked during the primaries has got me thinking that either Paul or another candidate will run third party and just fuck up everything for the GOP. 

I really hate to play the partisan, but given what Republicans did during Bush's terms, what they've done with their one term having some control of the House under Obama, and the absolute boneheads they've tried to pre-ordain as "serious candidates" over the last two general elections (Palin, Cain, Newt, etc), you've really got to wonder whether the GOP is capable of governing at all anymore; or whether they're a party on the fritz that realizes they have more in common with corporate democrats than they do with their own withering base. 
« Last Edit: December 24, 2011, 10:46:00 AM by Perpetual Change »

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #601 on: December 24, 2011, 11:56:55 AM »
They're going to align themselves behind whoever is the candidate, because they want to beat Obama over all.

Paul has leverage though, because if he runs 3rd party he could split the vote and guarantee an Obama win. This leaves me to think that whoever the candidate is going to be is going to have to adopt a more humble foreign policy, and challenge the monetary system, to earn the backing of Paul supporters.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #602 on: December 24, 2011, 12:25:09 PM »
Man, this primary is more drama than one could ever wish for. :lol
So, are Perry and Gingrich pulling out?
EDIT: Ah, they're gonna try to still get in by write-in. What a mess :lol

rumborak
« Last Edit: December 24, 2011, 12:33:26 PM by rumborak »
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Offline Perpetual Change

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #603 on: December 24, 2011, 12:39:09 PM »
They're going to align themselves behind whoever is the candidate, because they want to beat Obama over all.

Paul has leverage though, because if he runs 3rd party he could split the vote and guarantee an Obama win. This leaves me to think that whoever the candidate is going to be is going to have to adopt a more humble foreign policy, and challenge the monetary system, to earn the backing of Paul supporters.

So, do you think the party would actually unite behind Ron Paul, given that actually happens? I highly doubt it.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #604 on: December 24, 2011, 12:42:36 PM »
They want to beat Obama no matter what. I think they will come around to support him.

Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #605 on: December 24, 2011, 09:00:20 PM »
No way in hell. Paul is a threat to their way of politicking.

I don't know if you could get any one of them to admit it but I'm sure they would prefer four more years of Obama over Paul.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #606 on: December 24, 2011, 09:03:37 PM »
No write-ins for Gingrich, VA law doesn't allow it. While I agree with Gingrich that the system is ridiculous, there's clearly something amiss if he can't get 10,000 signatures off the ground in VA.

rumborak
« Last Edit: December 24, 2011, 09:08:43 PM by rumborak »
"I liked when Myung looked like a women's figure skating champion."

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #607 on: December 25, 2011, 12:03:27 AM »
Didn't ya hear? He's running a unique kind of presidential campaign, because we have NEVER seen a candidate like Newt Gingrich before.

That, or he just got in for the free promotion, basically, so that he can sell his books and his time for more / still... but that would be dirty, so there's just no way that could ever apply to Newt.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #608 on: December 25, 2011, 07:40:30 AM »
Man, talk about an epic fail.  not getting on the ballot in Virginia  :lol

And it's only 10,000 signatures needed.  That's not a lot in the grand scheme of things

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #609 on: December 25, 2011, 10:35:57 AM »
It's also his home state, Newt that is.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #610 on: December 25, 2011, 10:50:48 AM »
Didn't realize that, that's even more of a blow. My prediction is that he will lose massively in Iowa, then pull out shortly after.

What I thought was really interesting about this graph:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

is that every candidate has their distinct "phase".
August: Bachmann
September: Perry
October: Cain
November: Gingrich
December: Paul

In all of that, only Romney maintained a stable number of votes. It seems the Republican voters have a "anybody but Romney!!" approach, trying every other candidate only to see them blow up publicly. My guess is that RP will be the next peak on that graph.

rumborak
« Last Edit: December 25, 2011, 11:02:15 AM by rumborak »
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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #611 on: December 25, 2011, 11:22:22 AM »
But since no early states are winner take all, only proportionate, I think at least Newt will stay in the race til after Super Tuesday. Perry will drop out after 5-6 primaries I presume.

Romney will be the inevitable candidate though.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #612 on: December 25, 2011, 12:18:12 PM »
Yeah, without a major upset, I think so too. Every other candidate (except Paul) has "blown their load" so to speak. And even the Paul momentum is bound to run out soon.

rumborak
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #613 on: December 25, 2011, 02:05:51 PM »
It's definitely down to Paul and Romney; both have a more stable support than any of the other candidates, but in the end, I think too many conservatives will not vote for Paul because of his foreign policy, and the fact taht he actually wants to end something as horrendous as the Drug War.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #614 on: December 25, 2011, 04:10:30 PM »
There's also the thing that Paul isn't "presidential" really. Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #615 on: December 25, 2011, 04:19:12 PM »
That'd be hilarious to watch from the inside.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #616 on: December 26, 2011, 05:01:15 AM »
It's also his home state, Newt that is.

He resides in Georgia and was born in Pennsylvania (bio here)

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #617 on: December 26, 2011, 05:15:52 AM »
Oh. Well, I heard it was his home state, didn't bother checking it up. It's still pretty embarrassing.

Edit: No, actually:

Residence    
Carrollton, Georgia (1979–1993, while in office)
Marietta, Georgia (1993–1999, while in office)
McLean, Virginia (1999–present)[1]


Guess I was correct.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2011, 05:33:09 AM by jsem »

Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #618 on: December 26, 2011, 07:59:00 AM »
Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
Taking into account his (right, imho) view on the UN, I guess the G8 will be insignificant (this follows my view of how the UN will be without the US: as irrelevant as The League of Nations) once the US steps down from those summits (G8, G20, etc.).

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #619 on: December 26, 2011, 08:59:39 AM »
Oh. Well, I heard it was his home state, didn't bother checking it up. It's still pretty embarrassing.

Edit: No, actually:

Residence   
Carrollton, Georgia (1979–1993, while in office)
Marietta, Georgia (1993–1999, while in office)
McLean, Virginia (1999–present)[1]


Guess I was correct.

You identified Virginia as his "home state" yes, he lives there now, but it's not his "home state."    I think of "home state" as the place you were born, not necessarily the place you reside.    But I guess we're splitting hairs on this  :lol

Doesn't matter anyway, Romney's going to be the nominee, I think.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #620 on: December 26, 2011, 09:04:12 AM »
Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
Taking into account his (right, imho) view on the UN, I guess the G8 will be insignificant (this follows my view of how the UN will be without the US: as irrelevant as The League of Nations) once the US steps down from those summits (G8, G20, etc.).

My point was wider really. A president needs to be in front of a lot of international congregations. Can I see Romney representing the United States of America? Yes. Can I see Paul doing the same thing? No. His "erratic professor" mannerism is fine for primary debates, but not for being a president.

rumborak
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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #621 on: December 26, 2011, 09:15:07 AM »
Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
Taking into account his (right, imho) view on the UN, I guess the G8 will be insignificant (this follows my view of how the UN will be without the US: as irrelevant as The League of Nations) once the US steps down from those summits (G8, G20, etc.).

My point was wider really. A president needs to be in front of a lot of international congregations. Can I see Romney representing the United States of America? Yes. Can I see Paul doing the same thing? No. His "erratic professor" mannerism is fine for primary debates, but not for being a president.

rumborak

I see Ron Paul as one of those candidates that would never be elected (let's face it, he's unelectable as POTUS) but he has a productive impact on the debates leading up to the election because while he's got some positions that are sheer lunacy (see: The Monster Truck Ad for example) and have zero chance of ever being enacted, those positions DO serve a purpose by dragging the dialog in a certain direction.

What I wonder now is since this is Ron Paul's last presidential election where's he's a truly viable candidate in terms of age, will his son Rand (a complete whack-job from the word go, btw) take up his mantle?  I don't think so, but I still wonder if Rand will try to remake his image in his father's mold.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #622 on: December 26, 2011, 09:31:33 AM »
Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
Taking into account his (right, imho) view on the UN, I guess the G8 will be insignificant (this follows my view of how the UN will be without the US: as irrelevant as The League of Nations) once the US steps down from those summits (G8, G20, etc.).

My point was wider really. A president needs to be in front of a lot of international congregations. Can I see Romney representing the United States of America? Yes. Can I see Paul doing the same thing? No. His "erratic professor" mannerism is fine for primary debates, but not for being a president.

rumborak

I see Ron Paul as one of those candidates that would never be elected (let's face it, he's unelectable as POTUS) but he has a productive impact on the debates leading up to the election because while he's got some positions that are sheer lunacy (see: The Monster Truck Ad for example) and have zero chance of ever being enacted, those positions DO serve a purpose by dragging the dialog in a certain direction.

I totally agree, his "services" as a court jester who shows the ridiculousness of the other attendants was invaluable. But, that's a lot of money dumped into being a court jester. I mean, RP and his clan truly believe he could be a good president, and that's what really surprises me. I really have the impression that many of his followers believe that, once he's in power, international relations will just become trade negotiations.

EDIT: Just looked at CNN for news. So it begins, the guns have been positioned: https://www.cnn.com/2011/12/26/opinion/frum-ron-paul-newsletters/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

rumborak
« Last Edit: December 26, 2011, 09:39:59 AM by rumborak »
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Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #623 on: December 26, 2011, 12:02:55 PM »
Uh oh. David Frum is such a windbag.

Offline MetalMike06

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #624 on: December 26, 2011, 12:49:25 PM »
Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
Taking into account his (right, imho) view on the UN, I guess the G8 will be insignificant (this follows my view of how the UN will be without the US: as irrelevant as The League of Nations) once the US steps down from those summits (G8, G20, etc.).

My point was wider really. A president needs to be in front of a lot of international congregations. Can I see Romney representing the United States of America? Yes. Can I see Paul doing the same thing? No. His "erratic professor" mannerism is fine for primary debates, but not for being a president.

I don't think it really matters. I know you don't like non-interventionism and all, but I don't think he will just go to some diplomatic event and basically give everyone the finger or something.

But yeah, Romney might, ya know, bomb another country, expand our overseas presence, domestic surveillance, etc. But hey! He looks "presidential".

Not a trade off I'm really willing to make, personally.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #625 on: December 26, 2011, 01:12:31 PM »
Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
Taking into account his (right, imho) view on the UN, I guess the G8 will be insignificant (this follows my view of how the UN will be without the US: as irrelevant as The League of Nations) once the US steps down from those summits (G8, G20, etc.).

My point was wider really. A president needs to be in front of a lot of international congregations. Can I see Romney representing the United States of America? Yes. Can I see Paul doing the same thing? No. His "erratic professor" mannerism is fine for primary debates, but not for being a president.

rumborak

I see Ron Paul as one of those candidates that would never be elected (let's face it, he's unelectable as POTUS) but he has a productive impact on the debates leading up to the election because while he's got some positions that are sheer lunacy (see: The Monster Truck Ad for example) and have zero chance of ever being enacted, those positions DO serve a purpose by dragging the dialog in a certain direction.

I totally agree, his "services" as a court jester who shows the ridiculousness of the other attendants was invaluable. But, that's a lot of money dumped into being a court jester. I mean, RP and his clan truly believe he could be a good president, and that's what really surprises me. I really have the impression that many of his followers believe that, once he's in power, international relations will just become trade negotiations.

EDIT: Just looked at CNN for news. So it begins, the guns have been positioned: https://www.cnn.com/2011/12/26/opinion/frum-ron-paul-newsletters/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

rumborak

They have been upping the ante lately against Paul. Just think of how the media would handle an Iowa win.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #626 on: December 26, 2011, 02:55:21 PM »
Can you imagine him at a G8 summit?

rumborak
Taking into account his (right, imho) view on the UN, I guess the G8 will be insignificant (this follows my view of how the UN will be without the US: as irrelevant as The League of Nations) once the US steps down from those summits (G8, G20, etc.).

My point was wider really. A president needs to be in front of a lot of international congregations. Can I see Romney representing the United States of America? Yes. Can I see Paul doing the same thing? No. His "erratic professor" mannerism is fine for primary debates, but not for being a president.

But yeah, Romney might, ya know, bomb another country, expand our overseas presence, domestic surveillance, etc. But hey! He looks "presidential".

Not a trade off I'm really willing to make, personally.

I don't actually think Romney will push particularly hard on those issues once he's in power. He's playing along so he doesn't lose the extreme right, but frankly, once he's in power, I don't expect him to be particularly different in many policies than Obama.

Quote
I don't think it really matters. I know you don't like non-interventionism and all, but I don't think he will just go to some diplomatic event and basically give everyone the finger or something.

I'm not against non-interventionism as a guiding rule for international policy, far from it, but RP's approach to it doesn't exceed that of a idealistic 14-year old. He's clearly never spent any significant thought on what to do when push comes to shove, which is sadly how many of those things happen in international politics.
And yes, there *is* a value to being "presidential". Like Obama's policies or not, but he is extremely presidential and that has eased a lot of diplomatic relations with other countries. RP is a bumbling old man, and combined with many of his untenable stance in international politics, he would drive US credibility into the ground.

rumborak
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #627 on: December 26, 2011, 04:14:41 PM »
Ron Paul would make a much better Speaker than President.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #628 on: December 26, 2011, 04:21:06 PM »
He's going to have some leverage after this election cycle, that's for sure. He might use it to get a good position, and maybe becoming Speaker is a trade-off he'd be willing to make - but he has said that he's not running for re-election as a congressman.

Another tradeoff could be a cabinet position and the best would by far be Secretary of State, but that would NEVER happen. Treasury Secretary is a position I'd hope for, but he'd be such a danger to the special interests they would NEVER allow that.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #629 on: December 26, 2011, 04:55:56 PM »
Heh, CNN is preparing the next salvo for Gingrich. Apparently he lied about his first divorce.

rumborak
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