Author Topic: Election 2012  (Read 231751 times)

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Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #490 on: December 15, 2011, 10:48:39 PM »
Dear FOX, please do not use the Google Chat message sound for the you're-talking-too-long sound. Some people may have Gmail open, you know.

Didn't last longer than 15 minutes in, couldn't stand the verbal masturbation those things are. So, no idea who was good and who wasn't. Too many candidates in the fold, too much blablah.

EDIT: Huh, hotel TV has it on too just now. Haha, Paul is almost the Democrat in the group! :lol

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« Last Edit: December 15, 2011, 11:15:24 PM by rumborak »
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Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #491 on: December 16, 2011, 12:01:58 AM »
I've just watched a few clips. The warmongering is absolutely horrifying. I'm really glad Paul is there if for that reason only https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dKp6Ej7I2E

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #492 on: December 16, 2011, 12:36:44 AM »
Yeah, I definitely agree. It was disturbing to hear the thinly veiled warmongering, and refreshing to hear Paul talk sense (for the most part). Not that he really has a supportable foreign policy himself, but he calls out the other candidate on their ridiculous stances.

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Offline Implode

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #493 on: December 16, 2011, 02:01:13 AM »
It's like my friend says. I might not agree some of Ron Paul's points, but it seems like he's the only one up there making any sense at all.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #494 on: December 16, 2011, 05:47:24 AM »
I don't like how RP handled himself on Iran this time around, even though he is right on the issue.

Not good among Republican voters. I hope that debate performance doesn't hurt him in the Iowa caucus.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #495 on: December 16, 2011, 06:04:11 AM »
Pretty much what everyone else has said: I can't abide by his FP, but I'm really glad he came out and said that.
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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #496 on: December 16, 2011, 03:46:33 PM »
RON PAUL ON EARMARKS:

Kirk, you ought to read this:

https://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/earmark-reform/

Offline pogoowner

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #497 on: December 17, 2011, 10:14:56 AM »
Leno actually let Ron Paul talk for quite some time in his recent interview. Pretty good stuff.

https://ronpaulflix.com/2011/12/ron-paul-with-jay-leno-dec-16-2011

Edit: Well, I see this was already posted in the chat thread.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2011, 10:21:28 AM by pogoowner »

Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #498 on: December 17, 2011, 10:22:23 AM »
I hate Jay Leno's guts but it was good that he let Paul actually speak.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #499 on: December 17, 2011, 11:00:35 AM »
I thought Paul's visit to Leno could be seen as good and bad. I'm convinced that it could lead to more liberals being exposed to his views and might vote for him. But among conservatives, what he said about Bachmann and Santorum might not be to his benefit.

Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #500 on: December 17, 2011, 12:15:13 PM »
That was the best part :lol

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #501 on: December 17, 2011, 12:54:01 PM »
I thought Paul's visit to Leno could be seen as good and bad. I'm convinced that it could lead to more liberals being exposed to his views and might vote for him. But among conservatives, what he said about Bachmann and Santorum might not be to his benefit.

Honestly, I'm pretty sure liberals know who Ron Paul is.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #502 on: December 17, 2011, 02:56:41 PM »
I thought Paul's visit to Leno could be seen as good and bad. I'm convinced that it could lead to more liberals being exposed to his views and might vote for him. But among conservatives, what he said about Bachmann and Santorum might not be to his benefit.

Honestly, I'm pretty sure liberals know who Ron Paul is.
I said more liberals would get convinced.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #503 on: December 17, 2011, 03:00:35 PM »
I thought Paul's visit to Leno could be seen as good and bad. I'm convinced that it could lead to more liberals being exposed to his views and might vote for him. But among conservatives, what he said about Bachmann and Santorum might not be to his benefit.

Honestly, I'm pretty sure liberals know who Ron Paul is.
I said more liberals would get convinced.

May be what you meant, but what you said is that more liberals would be exposed to his views, which implies that they are not already aware of his views.

Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #504 on: December 17, 2011, 03:04:16 PM »
Nah, they'd just get convinced to actually make an effort and go vote in the primaries/caucuses.

Not many, but maybe a few.

Offline Sigz

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #505 on: December 17, 2011, 03:34:40 PM »
Nah, they'd just get convinced to actually make an effort and go vote in the primaries/caucuses.

Not many, but maybe a few.

Eh, they'd have to register republican to do so.
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Offline abrahamclark

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #506 on: December 17, 2011, 04:02:49 PM »
RON PAUL ON EARMARKS:

Kirk, you ought to read this:

https://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/earmark-reform/

Your effort to explain the difference between earmarks and pork is apparently futile.  Somehow perception has been swayed into confusion; I admire your tenacity.  I'll try one last analogy for others:

We have choice A, B and amendment C.

Choice A: Allows Jones to steal Smith's bread.  (Lose)
Choice B: Does not allow Jones to steal Smith's bread. (Win)

Amendment C: Restricts Jones to only stealing 70% of Smith's bread if Choice A is chosen.  (Lose Win)

Ron Paul chooses Choice B with Amendment C just in case.  He votes for Choice B, but he includes amendment C in the worst case scenario that Choice A is chosen.

He doesn't support the spending bill, but if a spending bill is to pass then the best case scenario is that he has a say in how the money is delegated, otherwise the President can spend it however he/she sees fit.

The only remaining argument is that Paul truly wants Choice A with Amendment C to be chosen, i.e., he makes a safe bet.  This is of course an improvable assumption.

 

Offline El Barto

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #507 on: December 17, 2011, 04:24:20 PM »
Or there's my scenario.  Paul votes for choice B,  but knows that A is inevitable,  so he tacks on Amendment D which says that his family gets 15% of the stolen bread.  Once again,  I'm not saying that this is a bad thing.  Only that it casts a pall of uncertainty over his integrity.
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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #508 on: December 17, 2011, 04:34:46 PM »
Abraham, I see your point, but the earmarking is done for transparency reasons as I read Paul's statements. It puts it in the hands of the congress.


Anyway, RP @ Jay Leno. He's going to lose Iowa due to the last remarks on the candidates, but he's going to catch fire in other states from non-fundamentalists. Those remarks do not fly well with the evangelical base in Iowa too.

The next few days are going to be REALLY important, how this is handled.


Also, I'm really worried about momentum after the last debate on Iran.

Offline abrahamclark

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #509 on: December 17, 2011, 04:46:32 PM »
Or there's my scenario.  Paul votes for choice B,  but knows that A is inevitable,  so he tacks on Amendment D which says that his family gets 15% of the stolen bread.  Once again,  I'm not saying that this is a bad thing.  Only that it casts a pall of uncertainty over his integrity.

I actually addressed that:

Quote
The only remaining argument is that Paul truly wants Choice A with Amendment C to be chosen, i.e., he makes a safe bet.  This is of course an improvable assumption.

Offline abrahamclark

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #510 on: December 17, 2011, 04:48:37 PM »
Anyway, RP @ Jay Leno. He's going to lose Iowa due to the last remarks on the candidates, but he's going to catch fire in other states from non-fundamentalists. Those remarks do not fly well with the evangelical base in Iowa too.

The next few days are going to be REALLY important, how this is handled.

Also, I'm really worried about momentum after the last debate on Iran.

He's still doing just as well.  The polls haven't dropped.  His core support has quadrupled this election and his core doesn't leave.  I didn't like his comment on Bachman either, but it was overall a great interview and his comment was more or less supposed to be a joke.

Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #511 on: December 17, 2011, 04:53:42 PM »
Except that it's true, so there's that as well :p

Offline El Barto

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #512 on: December 17, 2011, 05:11:54 PM »
Or there's my scenario.  Paul votes for choice B,  but knows that A is inevitable,  so he tacks on Amendment D which says that his family gets 15% of the stolen bread.  Once again,  I'm not saying that this is a bad thing.  Only that it casts a pall of uncertainty over his integrity.

I actually addressed that:

Quote
The only remaining argument is that Paul truly wants Choice A with Amendment C to be chosen, i.e., he makes a safe bet.  This is of course an improvable assumption.
For one thing,  my amendment D is different from your amendment C.  Also,  I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he really doesn't want A to happen at all. 
Argument, the presentation of reasonable views, never makes headway against conviction, and conviction takes no part in argument because it knows.
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Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #513 on: December 18, 2011, 09:50:50 PM »
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-leads-in-iowa.html

December 18, 2011
Paul leads in Iowa

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa.  He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row.  His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%.  And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa.  22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa.  Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest.  Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich.  He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters.  Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

Romney's vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul.  Among voters who say they're not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul.   It's particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he's the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

In addition to having more support right now Paul also has firmer support (73% solidly committed) than Romney does (68% solidly committed.) But at the same time Romney appears to have more room for growth, which could allow him to overtake Paul in the last two weeks.

Two other notes on Romney: he's now winning the electability primary- 25% of voters think he would have the best chance to defeat Obama compared to 17% for Gingrich and 16% for Paul. And he also leads Paul 24-18 among voters who watched the Sioux City debate on Thursday night, confirming general perception that he had the stronger performance.

The rest of the field isn't getting much traction. Among the three candidates tied at 10%, Santorum has gained a couple points compared to last week, Perry has moved up a single point, and Bachmann is down a point. There is some indication that Iowans are warming up to Perry a little bit. He's gone from a -4 (43/47) favorability to a +8 (48/40).

With six candidates in double digits there are still a lot of different things that could happen the final two weeks in Iowa. But it looks like Paul and Romney have emerged as the clear front runners.

Full results here: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1218925.pdf

:dangerwillrobinson:

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #514 on: December 18, 2011, 10:25:07 PM »
No matter what happens, I don't think he's getting the nom. At best he'll declare his candidacy for a third party ticket.

Unless I'm totally missing the point of that article, in which case just ignore me.
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Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #515 on: December 19, 2011, 01:50:24 AM »
He's not gonna get the nomination in the end. What I hope it does though is to force the other candidates to assume some of his stances, and that is good.

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #516 on: December 19, 2011, 04:24:08 AM »
He's not gonna get the nomination in the end. What I hope it does though is to force the other candidates to assume some of his stances, and that is good.

rumborak
I'm sure that Romney will, or already has.
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Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #517 on: December 19, 2011, 05:35:01 AM »
No matter what happens, I don't think he's getting the nom. At best he'll declare his candidacy for a third party ticket.

Unless I'm totally missing the point of that article, in which case just ignore me.
Nah, he clearly stated on Leno that those kind of comments happen because he's rising on the polls. I think there's no way he'll leave the Republican Party.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #518 on: December 19, 2011, 07:34:51 AM »
He's not gonna get the nomination in the end. What I hope it does though is to force the other candidates to assume some of his stances, and that is good.

rumborak
I'm sure that Romney will, or already has.

He has today, but what about tomorrow? :P (kidding, btw)
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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #519 on: December 19, 2011, 09:21:42 AM »
I thought Paul's visit to Leno could be seen as good and bad. I'm convinced that it could lead to more liberals being exposed to his views and might vote for him. But among conservatives, what he said about Bachmann and Santorum might not be to his benefit.

Honestly, I'm pretty sure liberals know who Ron Paul is.

And I'm equally sure that very few actual liberals would ever vote for a guy who will pack the courts with more right-wingers.  His position on abortion alone disqualifies him as someone I can vote for and I know most of my liberal friends feel the same way.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #520 on: December 19, 2011, 09:27:12 AM »
He's not gonna get the nomination in the end. What I hope it does though is to force the other candidates to assume some of his stances, and that is good.

rumborak

It's the same as any other primary election.   Once the nominee is "picked" (most likely Romney, but still up for grabs) and they are running directly against Obama, they'll head straight for the political center, just like George W. "We shouldn't use our troops for nation building" Bush did.  Then if/when they are elected,  it's amnesia time.


Offline El Barto

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #521 on: December 19, 2011, 09:26:31 PM »
This is interesting:  Washington Post article
Quote
By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, December 19, 7:12 PM

WASHINGTON — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney says rival Newt Gingrich’s idea to send Capitol Police or U.S. marshals to bring judges before lawmakers to explain their decisions is neither practical nor constitutional.

Romney says the answer to out-of-control judges is not to tear up the Constitution and say that Congress is the ultimate power in the country. Instead, he says the Constitution should be followed when it comes to removing judges or reversing judicial decisions.

Romney made the comments Monday night on the Fox News Channel.

Over the weekend, Gingrich leveled wide-ranging criticism at the judicial system and suggested that as president he could ignore some Supreme Court decisions and would seek to abolish left-leaning courts. He also said Congress should subpoena judges to explain their decisions to lawmakers.
It's not Newt's position that intrigues me; we all know he's a loon.  It's that Romney is wanting to remove judges and reverse their decisions if he disagrees with them,  and he's coming off as the reasonable sort.  This is actually exactly what's been happening in American politics for a while.  The right keeps foisting maniacs out to represent them, and the effect is to slide the fulcrum a little to the right.  That's why we have a Republican president who's mascaraing as a democrat,  and half the country no longer recognizes that he's essentially the second coming of their patron saint, Lord Reagan. 
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Offline emindead

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #522 on: December 19, 2011, 09:40:41 PM »
I thought Paul's visit to Leno could be seen as good and bad. I'm convinced that it could lead to more liberals being exposed to his views and might vote for him. But among conservatives, what he said about Bachmann and Santorum might not be to his benefit.

Honestly, I'm pretty sure liberals know who Ron Paul is.

And I'm equally sure that very few actual liberals would ever vote for a guy who will pack the courts with more right-wingers. His position on abortion alone disqualifies him as someone I can vote for and I know most of my liberal friends feel the same way.
:therearenowords:

I wonder if you really know his position. It basically reminds me of this (just replace the fake "I don't believe in Evolution;" he does.) Deal wtih:

« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 09:56:20 PM by emindead »

Offline chknptpie

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #523 on: December 19, 2011, 09:46:26 PM »
I don't get why that is a facepalm? I feel the same way.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #524 on: December 19, 2011, 11:32:09 PM »
I don't get it either. It says a lot about "Dr." Ron Paul and his supposed adherence to reason.
Not only that, but Obama "believes" in Empire? He "believes" in corporate wars? I think that picture kinda illustrates the level of discourse in a significant portion of Paul's following.

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