Author Topic: Election 2012 (Read 235409 times)

Super Dude · « **Reply #1365 on:** February 28, 2012, 04:09:43 PM »

@ shmegs: For better or worse, Bush won because his rivals were more moronic than he was (believe it or not). I was reading an article a couple months ago comparing a prospective Obama-Romney race to Bush-Kerry.

rumborak · « **Reply #1366 on:** February 28, 2012, 04:13:07 PM »

To this day I can not fathom that Kerry lost a public debate to GWB. I mean, wtf?

rumborak

Super Dude · « **Reply #1367 on:** February 28, 2012, 04:14:08 PM »

Flip-flops.

TL · « **Reply #1368 on:** February 28, 2012, 04:24:37 PM »

Predictions for tonight's primaries;

Romney will win the popular vote in Michigan by a slim margin; 2, maybe three percentage points. However, Santorum will win more congressional districts, and thus more delegates, because of how Michigan handles delegate selection.

Romney will win Arizona. It will be much closer than expected, but Arizona is winner take all, so there won't be any narrative there other than 'Romney won Arizona', even if it's insanely close.

rumborak · « **Reply #1369 on:** February 28, 2012, 04:28:06 PM »

Yeah, that sounds about right. I would put Gingrich and Paul In the low teens.

rumborak

El Barto · « **Reply #1370 on:** February 28, 2012, 04:37:19 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 28, 2012, 04:13:07 PM

To this day I can not fathom that Kerry lost a public debate to GWB. I mean, wtf?

rumborak

Well, most importantly, debates in this country are little more than live advertisements. No thought is involved; merely a memory for your talking points. The other thing, and this is applicable to the Bush/Santorum comparison, is that Bush was a likable idiot. He related well to the masses (many of whom are idiots themselves). Neither Gore nor Kerry were particularly likable, and while they're both Einsteins compared to Chimpy, it really just made them seem arrogant in comparison. This is one of Frothy's problems. Yes, he's an imbecile, and as W demonstrated that can be a huge selling point, but unlike Bush he's not a particularly likable imbecile. And when it comes down to Romney vs. Obama, Mitt will have the same problem. Being brighter or having better ideas doesn't help you much if you just look like a conceited prick when you explain them.

rumborak · « **Reply #1371 on:** February 28, 2012, 05:03:18 PM »

Yeah! Romney definitely has that problem, he comes across like that detached CEO a lot of us know from company meetings.
Interestingly Obama had the same problem for the longest time, but as of late he's loosened up quite a bit.

BTW, reading Ron Paul forums is a blast. Now they're convincing themselves that everything is rigged, that all primaries strategically flip votes to Romney.

rumborak

snapple · « **Reply #1372 on:** February 28, 2012, 05:07:46 PM »

https://youtu.be/ihq0DRqv-A4 <---Me about to vote.

Super Dude · « **Reply #1373 on:** February 28, 2012, 06:31:00 PM »

OK, seriously: WTF Oakland County?

rumborak · « **Reply #1374 on:** February 28, 2012, 06:50:02 PM »

Holy crap, he might actually lose Michigan.

rumborak

Riceball · « **Reply #1375 on:** February 28, 2012, 07:02:20 PM »

In relation to what I said the other day:

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/four-fiscal-phonies/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto

Krugman on the offensive. He gets quite emotive towards the end.

Disclaimer: I don't know how Krugman is perceived in the US, but in Aus he is held in high regard.

TL · « **Reply #1376 on:** February 28, 2012, 07:14:16 PM »

With 26% of the vote in, CNN has Romney ahead in Michigan 41% to Santorum's 38%.
Also, CNN has already called Arizona for Romney, though no votes have actually been counted yet (seriously, I know they have polling info, but it pisses me off when the news networks do this). We'll have to wait to see what the margin is there.

rumborak · « **Reply #1377 on:** February 28, 2012, 07:31:03 PM »

FOX has the same thing. WTF?

rumborak

Super Dude · « **Reply #1378 on:** February 28, 2012, 07:34:42 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 28, 2012, 06:50:02 PM

Holy crap, he might actually lose Michigan.

rumborak

Meaning Romney or Santorum?

rumborak · « **Reply #1379 on:** February 28, 2012, 07:39:59 PM »

Well, now it flipped around, but it's ridiculously close. Right now Romney is in the lead.

rumborak

Super Dude · « **Reply #1380 on:** February 28, 2012, 07:58:44 PM »

Not as much. A 20,000 vote lead is quite a bit. Goddammit Oakland.

Edit: Dammit Michigan.

rumborak · « **Reply #1381 on:** February 28, 2012, 08:39:32 PM »

Yeah, that win today might have been all it took for Romney to be finally locked in. Santorum was going down already, and this one, combined with Saturday's shoe-in for Romney in WA, will create a good amount of momentum for him.

rumborak

Super Dude · « **Reply #1382 on:** February 28, 2012, 08:42:04 PM »

Obama better have a great debate presence and that economic recovery better continue.

wolfandwolfandwolf · « **Reply #1383 on:** February 28, 2012, 09:25:46 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 28, 2012, 08:39:32 PM

Yeah, that win today might have been all it took for Romney to be finally locked in. Santorum was going down already, and this one, combined with Saturday's shoe-in for Romney in WA, will create a good amount of momentum for him.

rumborak

There were so, so many foot in mouth moments for Santorum this week. That had to be some kind of factor.

antigoon · « **Reply #1384 on:** February 29, 2012, 12:01:57 AM »

Remember that Political Compass test that always pops up around here every so often? They did one with the current candidates. The link has a write-up about it, written by I'm-not-sure-who.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2012

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1385 on:** February 29, 2012, 04:53:23 AM »

So, last night should pretty much settle the Republican nomination. The only states that are going to be really competitive on Super Tuesday now are Ohio and maybe Georgia (Newt Gingrich's home state)

As I've said from the beginning, Romney will be the nominee because it's his turn.

TL · « **Reply #1386 on:** February 29, 2012, 09:16:00 AM »

Quote from: kirksnosehair on February 29, 2012, 04:53:23 AM

So, last night should pretty much settle the Republican nomination. The only states that are going to be really competitive on Super Tuesday now are Ohio and maybe Georgia (Newt Gingrich's home state)

As I've said from the beginning, Romney will be the nominee because it's his turn.

I disagree. Last night went more or less exactly how it was expected to. Santorum will probably lose some momentum, but Super Tuesday is still going to be somewhat unpredictable. The real shakeup last night would have been if Romney had lost the popular vote in Michigan (and he may still lose the delegate count there).

Yes, Romney will eventually get the nomination, and will probably have the best results next week. However, last night only really indicates that he's having some difficulty, rather than being in severe trouble.

Sigz · « **Reply #1387 on:** February 29, 2012, 10:07:19 AM »

There's a thread right now on reddit saying accusing Romney of vote-flipping in South Carolina, it seems at the very least thought-out, but I don't know enough about to stats to really say anything more: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/qb9ea/reddit_can_you_debunk_this_some_people_with/

edit: though it apaprently came from the Ron Paul forum originally, so that should say something.

rumborak · « **Reply #1388 on:** February 29, 2012, 10:12:47 AM »

Quote

A candidate's cumulative score should gradually converge with reducing volatility towards his final result. This is an absolute mathematical law.

Stopped reading there. The guy is clueless about math and statistics.

EDIT: Tribble_trouble posted exactly the right thing.

rumborak

rumborak · « **Reply #1389 on:** February 29, 2012, 11:18:50 AM »

RP: "We're very pleased with our strategy"

https://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-ron-paul-michigan-primary-20120228,0,779662.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+(L.A.+Times+-+Politics)

Not sure what that strategy is though....

rumborak

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1390 on:** February 29, 2012, 12:24:19 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 29, 2012, 11:18:50 AM

RP: "We're very pleased with our strategy"

https://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-ron-paul-michigan-primary-20120228,0,779662.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+(L.A.+Times+-+Politics)

Not sure what that strategy is though....

rumborak

There's a reason why he lost his seat in the senate by 16 points and why not ONE sitting senator has endorsed him. (read: he's toxic and nobody wants him to win)

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1391 on:** February 29, 2012, 12:25:53 PM »

Quote from: TL on February 29, 2012, 09:16:00 AM

Quote from: kirksnosehair on February 29, 2012, 04:53:23 AM
So, last night should pretty much settle the Republican nomination. The only states that are going to be really competitive on Super Tuesday now are Ohio and maybe Georgia (Newt Gingrich's home state)

As I've said from the beginning, Romney will be the nominee because it's his turn.
I disagree. Last night went more or less exactly how it was expected to. Santorum will probably lose some momentum, but Super Tuesday is still going to be somewhat unpredictable. The real shakeup last night would have been if Romney had lost the popular vote in Michigan (and he may still lose the delegate count there).

Yes, Romney will eventually get the nomination, and will probably have the best results next week. However, last night only really indicates that he's having some difficulty, rather than being in severe trouble.

Did you misread my post? I never wrote that Romney is in any trouble of any kind. What are you disagreeing with?

rumborak · « **Reply #1392 on:** February 29, 2012, 01:10:38 PM »

I have to say, in the long run I'm happier that Romney is the nominee. Despite the fact that of course Romney has a decent chance of becoming president as opposed to Santorum (who would have been a dud) and I would rather like to see Obama reelected, it's better for the national discourse to not have lunatics like Santorum get a public platform. Having him even just run against Obama would have given Santorum and his views legitimacy.
Romney is a pretty smart guy, so I would hope the debates benefit from that fact.

rumborak

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1393 on:** February 29, 2012, 01:32:39 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 29, 2012, 01:10:38 PM

I have to say, in the long run I'm happier that Romney is the nominee. Despite the fact that of course Romney has a decent chance of becoming president as opposed to Santorum (who would have been a dud) and I would rather like to see Obama reelected, it's better for the national discourse to not have lunatics like Santorum get a public platform. Having him even just run against Obama would have given Santorum and his views legitimacy.
Romney is a pretty smart guy, so I would hope the debates benefit from that fact.

rumborak

That is precisely how I feel. I may have strong disagreements with Romney, and he's pretty socially and politically tone deaf because of his wealth, but......I have to admit that I begrudgingly respect the guy. I have less than no respect for Santorum.

Super Dude · « **Reply #1394 on:** February 29, 2012, 03:28:57 PM »

I don't. Come on, the guy will say anything to get elected. He'll even contradict himself.

jsem · « **Reply #1395 on:** February 29, 2012, 04:18:00 PM »

Quote from: antigoon on February 29, 2012, 12:01:57 AM

Remember that Political Compass test that always pops up around here every so often? They did one with the current candidates. The link has a write-up about it, written by I'm-not-sure-who.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2012

I lost faith in that political compass LONG ago. I mean, some questions on there would for myself have no effect on public policy matter but would make me seem more socially conservative. And what about the astrology question, or arts? That doesn't affect public policy for a minarchist/an-cap in the slightest, might do for a radical theocrat-like creature like Santorum.

But considering the limitations of that test, it fairly represents the current political spectrum. There is no actual choice for change but Paul.

rumborak · « **Reply #1396 on:** February 29, 2012, 04:49:27 PM »

Given that neither of those guys will have sat down and filled out the test, I find the chart rather questionable. in its accuracy.

rumborak

El Barto · « **Reply #1397 on:** February 29, 2012, 06:04:46 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 29, 2012, 04:49:27 PM

Given that neither of those guys will have sat down and filled out the test, I find the chart rather questionable. in its accuracy.

rumborak

I'd think the opposite. If the values were supplied by outsiders based on the actions and statements of the candidates, I'd think it more accurate than if they were merely what the candidates like to think they are. I find it rather hard to answer some of those questions, but a group of people could probably answer them for a third party pretty accurately.

TL · « **Reply #1398 on:** February 29, 2012, 07:16:01 PM »

Quote from: kirksnosehair on February 29, 2012, 12:25:53 PM

Quote from: TL on February 29, 2012, 09:16:00 AM
Quote from: kirksnosehair on February 29, 2012, 04:53:23 AM
So, last night should pretty much settle the Republican nomination. The only states that are going to be really competitive on Super Tuesday now are Ohio and maybe Georgia (Newt Gingrich's home state)

As I've said from the beginning, Romney will be the nominee because it's his turn.
I disagree. Last night went more or less exactly how it was expected to. Santorum will probably lose some momentum, but Super Tuesday is still going to be somewhat unpredictable. The real shakeup last night would have been if Romney had lost the popular vote in Michigan (and he may still lose the delegate count there).

Yes, Romney will eventually get the nomination, and will probably have the best results next week. However, last night only really indicates that he's having some difficulty, rather than being in severe trouble.

Did you misread my post? I never wrote that Romney is in any trouble of any kind. What are you disagreeing with?

Did you misread mine?
I'm agreeing that Romney will get the nomination. What I'm disagreeing with is that this thing is anywhere close to being resolved. I'm saying that Super Tuesday this time around isn't going to be particularly decisive. I would honestly be shocked if there's an end in sight before April.

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1399 on:** March 01, 2012, 08:37:51 AM »

Nah, it's already over. Santorum won't be the nominee. And it certainly isn't going to be Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich. Everything from here forward is nothing but window dressing. The only way Romney doesn't get the nod now is if he pulls his pants down and pisses on the next debate moderator's head on live TV. It's his turn. And Marco Rubio will probably be his running mate.

News: DreamTheaterForums is a place for people who just don't have the time for music anymore.

Author Topic: Election 2012 (Read 235409 times)